股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01456 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 442,640,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 442,640,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 442,640,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 442,640,000 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 國聯民生證券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01456 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 442,640,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 442,640,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 442,640,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 442,640,000 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's independent motorcycle companies are expected to experience a dual trend of high-end development and international expansion, with increasing domestic sales concentration [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, domestic sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles (over 250cc) reached 374,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, achieving a record penetration rate of 11.1% [2]. - Exports of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles surged to 449,000 units, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 59.1% [2]. - The market structure is evolving, with the share of 450cc models increasing to approximately 34%, and the export of 800cc models marking a significant milestone for domestic brands [2]. Group 2: Sales Forecast for 2026 - Domestic sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles are projected to reach 432,000 and 477,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.8% and 10.5% [3]. - The overseas market for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles is expected to exceed 5 million units, with exports forecasted to maintain high growth rates, reaching 540,000 and 718,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 58.4% and 33.0% [3]. Group 3: Structural Trends - The trend towards high-end products is expected to accelerate, with major domestic companies launching multiple models of 500cc and above in 2025, leading to a projected increase in the share of 500cc-800cc motorcycles to 22% and 25% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]. - The export structure is stabilizing, with the share of 500cc-800cc models expected to rise to 17.4% and 19.5% in 2025 and 2026 [5]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market remains high, with the CR3 (the market share of the top three companies) at approximately 53.6% in the first ten months of 2025 [6]. - As consumer preferences evolve, leading domestic brands like Changan, Longxin, and Qianjiang are expected to capture more market share due to their better understanding of local consumer preferences and superior product quality [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The focus on mid-to-large displacement product platforms, popular product models, regional breakthroughs, and brand storytelling positions domestic motorcycle companies for sustainable global growth, with recommendations for Changan Power (603129.SH), Longxin General (603766.SH), and Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913.SZ) [7].

Group 1 - Guolian Minsheng (601456.SH) closed at 9.84 yuan, experiencing a decline of 3.24% [1] - The securities sector increased by 1.47%, with Guolian Minsheng being the only company in the sector to report a decline [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng Securities initiates coverage on Baiao Saitu (02315) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the robust growth across its three main business segments and the positive impact of the "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" initiative on financial performance [1] Group 1: Model Animals - The company dominates the humanized mouse market with over 1,700 strains, contributing significantly to revenue, with sales and licensing expected to generate 257 million yuan (94% of revenue) by H1 2025 [1] - The sales of model animals are projected to grow at a CAGR of 51.6% from 2022 to 2024, with increasing customer repurchase rates [1] - By 2024, overseas sales of model animals are expected to account for 56.4%, with a mature U.S. subsidiary facilitating order acquisition [1] Group 2: Preclinical CRO Services - The preclinical CRO services segment, which extends from model animals, has an overseas revenue share of 79%, benefiting from a recovering investment environment [2] - The pharmacology and efficacy team operates across Beijing, Haimen, and the U.S., having completed over 6,350 drug evaluation projects for approximately 950 global partners by H1 2025 [2] - Revenue for this segment reached 155 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 90% due to increased client numbers driven by industry growth [2] Group 3: Antibody Molecule Transfer/Authorization - The revenue model based on upfront payments, milestones, and sales sharing allows for significant revenue growth as pipelines advance [3] - The "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" initiative has created a vast array of antibody combinations, reducing R&D time and uncertainty for pharmaceutical companies [3] - By H1 2025, the company has signed 61 transfer/authorization/co-development projects with renowned pharmaceutical firms, with a projected CAGR of 58.3% for this segment from 2022 to 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng Securities initiates coverage on Baiaosaitu (02315) with a "recommended" rating, highlighting the company's three major business segments experiencing high growth and industry prosperity, alongside significant financial relief from fundraising efforts as the "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" plan achieves milestones [1] Group 1: Model Animals - The company dominates the humanized mouse market with over 1,700 strains, contributing significantly to core profits, with a projected sales revenue of 257 million yuan from humanized mice sales and licensing by H1 2025, accounting for 94% of revenue [1] - The sales CAGR for model animals is expected to be 51.6% from 2022 to 2024, with increasing customer repurchase rates [1] - By 2024, overseas sales of model animals are projected to account for 56.4%, with a mature U.S. subsidiary facilitating rapid order acquisition [1] Group 2: Preclinical CRO Services - The preclinical CRO services segment, which extends from model animals, has an overseas revenue share of 79%, with strong growth certainty amid a recovering investment environment [2] - The pharmacology and efficacy team operates across Beijing, Haimen, and the U.S., having completed over 6,350 drug evaluation projects for approximately 950 global partners by H1 2025 [2] - Revenue for this segment reached 155 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 90%, driven by industry prosperity and a significant increase in client numbers [2] Group 3: Antibody Molecule Transfer/Authorization - The revenue model based on upfront payments, milestones, and sales sharing allows for stepwise revenue growth as pipelines advance, significantly reducing uncertainty for pharmaceutical companies [3] - The "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" plan has created a vast array of antibody formats, positioning the company as a potential global source of new drug development [3] - By H1 2025, the company has signed 61 transfer/authorization/co-development projects with renowned pharmaceutical companies, with a projected CAGR of 58.3% for this segment from 2022 to 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market profitability is expected to continue recovering in 2026, with liquidity remaining loose, shifting the core market driver from valuation to profitability [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditional growth momentum and emerging industries are expected to work in tandem, leading to improved competition in traditional sectors and a rise in domestic inflation [1] - Fiscal policies are anticipated to create new demand in the domestic market, while the resonance of domestic and international technology industries will accelerate capital inflow into emerging sectors [1] Group 2: Industry Structure - The technology sector is projected to maintain absolute returns driven by profit growth, although the gap with consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors will gradually narrow [1] - Despite high profit growth in the technology sector due to expanding capital expenditure in artificial intelligence, the current valuation levels of the tech industry and the overall market show a significant disparity, making further valuation increases challenging [1] - Traditional sectors such as consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing are expected to see a gradual rebound in profit growth, with certain supply-demand balanced industries showing substantial profit elasticity [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is increasing market and policy focus on new productive forces, with expectations that more emerging industries will be influenced by domestic policies in 2026, creating additional investment opportunities [1]

2025年12月30日，国联民生（601456）发布公告，拟公开挂牌转让所持中海基金33.409%股权，首次挂牌价格不低于经国资备案的评估结果，按中联资产评 估集团的市场法评估，这部分股权价值约1.53亿元。 而国联证券作为中海基金的创始股东，其持股比例从最初的49%降至33.41%，经历了从控股到参股的角色转变。 七年前，国联证券曾试图彻底退出中海基金，2018年2月，国联证券曾挂牌转让中海基金33.41%股权，挂牌底价2.14亿元。公开资料显示，2014-2017年上半 年，国联证券从中海基金获得的分红相当可观；并且当时正处于券商资管向主动管理转型的大背景下，国联证券选择退出的举动令人费解。时代周报报道， 据中海基金内部人员表示，国联证券在公司的存在感较低，与之对应的是大股东中海信托对于公司的发展给予了较多支持，公司的文化也与大股东颇为接 近，而国联证券作为第二大股东某种意义上更类似于财务投资者的角色。但最终这起转让并没有成功。 两年后，国联证券态度突变，又计划从法国洛希尔银行收购25%股权，意图重获控制权。根据2020年9月的计划，收购价格为1.15亿元，若交易完成，国联 证券将持股58.41%，成为控 ...

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to trend back to the "6" range in 2026, which could significantly impact the economy, policies, and market logic, marking a shift from 2025 when the exchange rate expectations began to change [1][44]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Assessment - Evaluating whether the RMB is overvalued or undervalued is complex and can yield different conclusions based on various dimensions [3][46]. - The financial market and asset price dimensions suggest that the current appreciation of the RMB may be reasonable, as the US dollar index has dropped over 10% since its peak in January 2025 [3][46]. - The narrowing of the 2-year China-US interest rate differential by approximately 110 basis points since the beginning of the year indicates a decrease in the attractiveness of the RMB as a financing currency [4][47]. Group 2: Trade Dimension - The trade perspective supports the argument for RMB undervaluation, especially given China's strong export performance in recent years [7][51]. - The RMB exchange rate index remains at a relatively low level compared to recent years, despite its appreciation against the US dollar [7][51]. - There is a positive correlation between RMB depreciation and the expansion of bilateral surplus shares, indicating that trade dynamics are closely linked to exchange rate movements [7][51]. Group 3: Inflation Impact - The significant gap between the nominal effective exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate since 2022 reflects lower domestic inflation compared to global levels [11][54]. - The real exchange rate is a crucial indicator of a country's export price competitiveness, with lower real exchange rates generally favoring exports [15][58]. - Maintaining a stable real effective exchange rate while allowing for slight nominal depreciation could help avoid unnecessary trade frictions and manage surpluses effectively [15][58]. Group 4: Central Bank's Role in Exchange Rate Management - Historical patterns suggest that the RMB may experience significant appreciation during periods of US dollar depreciation, with the central bank likely to intervene to maintain stability [17][25]. - The central bank's approach to managing the exchange rate involves a balance of maintaining stability while allowing for necessary adjustments based on market conditions [17][27]. - The central bank has been gradually increasing its efforts to manage the RMB's appreciation, particularly in response to rapid increases in the exchange rate [25][27]. Group 5: Market Impact of Exchange Rate Changes - The market has adapted to the constraints imposed by RMB depreciation on monetary policy and liquidity, with expectations of a shift in sentiment during periods of appreciation [31][33]. - Generally, a normal appreciation of the RMB is associated with economic growth, positively impacting the stock market while potentially putting pressure on the bond market [35][36]. - In contrast, during periods of excessive appreciation, the stock market may underperform due to negative economic impacts, while the bond market could benefit [36][37].

作为证券日报社主办的年度重磅活动"金骏马奖"奖项评选始于2004年，迄今已至第十七届。在评选中， 证券日报邀请行业内最有影响力的专家、智库助力，致力于为证券市场遴选出优秀的上市公司、金融机 构及高管代表加以表彰。证券日报作为资本市场主流财经媒体，在依法合规、客观公正的前提下，通过 规范的奖项设置、公开公正的评奖流程，筛选出优秀的上市公司、企业家代表给予颁奖，不仅是对其努 力和工作成就的肯定，更可促进企业创新，推动行业和社会发展。 这一荣誉的获得，是对公司长期以来深耕实体经济、履行责任担当的高度认可。2025年，作为中央金融 工作会议及新"国九条"后首单券商市场化并购成功案例。国联民生证券深入贯彻落实中央金融工作会议 精神，在顺利推进各项业务高效整合提升的同时，聚焦服务实体经济、服务居民理财主责主业，充分发 挥"国资背景+市场化机制"优势，依托"投资+投行+投研"紧密协同，深耕区域、精耕行业，持续打造"产 业投行、科技投行、财富投行"，不断提升服务质量和水平，为实体经济发展注入强劲金融动力。 展望未来，国联民生证券将以此次获奖为契机，继续坚守服务实体经济初心，紧扣金融"五篇大文章"战 略指引，积极践行服务新质生 ...