专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：杨赐 专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：杨赐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimistic outlook for the capital market in 2026, suggesting a stable and promising journey ahead for investors and market participants [1][2]. Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of professional analysis and timely research reports in identifying potential investment opportunities in the stock market [1][2]. - It mentions the role of authoritative analysts in providing comprehensive insights that can aid investors in making informed decisions [1][2]. Group 2 - The piece is part of a special feature that aims to convey messages of hope and stability as the new year approaches, symbolized by the metaphor of a horse galloping into spring [1][2]. - The article is published by Guolian Minsheng Research, indicating a collaboration with Sina, which aims to disseminate valuable information to the public [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that by 2026, the resonance between assets and liabilities is expected to support the continued recovery of insurance valuations [1] Group 1: Insurance Fund Scale and Growth - The balance of insurance funds is projected to reach 38.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, representing a 15.7% increase from Q4 2024 and a 2.7% increase from Q3 2025 [1] - By the end of Q4 2025, the fund utilization balance for life insurance companies and property insurance companies is expected to be 34.7 trillion yuan and 2.4 trillion yuan, respectively, with increases of 15.7% and 8.8% from Q4 2024, and 2.8% and 1.2% from Q3 2025 [1] - Life insurance companies account for 90.1% of the total insurance fund utilization balance, reflecting a strong demand for life insurance products driven by residents' "savings transfer" needs and adjustments in product interest rates [1] Group 2: Asset Allocation of Life Insurance Companies - As of Q4 2025, life insurance companies have allocated 20.37 trillion yuan to fixed income assets and 7.98 trillion yuan to equity assets, marking increases of 3.4% and 1.2% from Q3 2025 [2] - The proportion of fixed income assets and equity assets in the total fund utilization balance of life insurance companies is 58.8% and 23.0%, respectively, with a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from Q3 2025 [2] - The increase in the allocation to fixed income assets is attributed to heightened volatility in the equity market, prompting life insurance companies to stabilize investment returns [2] Group 3: Asset Allocation of Property Insurance Companies - By the end of Q4 2025, property insurance companies have allocated 1.37 trillion yuan to fixed income assets and 0.55 trillion yuan to equity assets, with increases of 1.9% and 0.3% from Q3 2025 [3] - The allocation proportions for fixed income and equity assets in the total fund utilization balance of property insurance companies are 56.7% and 22.9%, reflecting an increase of 0.4 percentage points and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q3 2025 [3] - The increase in the allocation to cash and stocks is driven by the high demand for liquid assets during the year-end claims peak and regulatory adjustments to attract insurance capital into the market [3]

Company Developments - The company is making progress in business integration, capital operations, and litigation matters [1] - The company plans to establish a wealth management subsidiary and complete the legal merger by June 2026 to enhance comprehensive financial service capabilities [2] Funding Movements - The company intends to increase capital by 200 million yuan to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Minsheng Securities, for the development of wealth management and information technology, which has been approved by the board on February 6 [3] Company Status - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to publicly issue perpetual subordinated bonds with a total face value of no more than 3 billion yuan, valid for 24 months from the date of registration and can be issued in tranches [4] Subsidiary Development - The wholly-owned subsidiary, Guolian Minsheng, has appealed a ruling related to a securities false statement liability dispute, with the Shandong High People's Court accepting the case on February 2, 2026; the first-instance judgment requires it to bear joint liability for 275 million yuan of debt within a 5% range, and the company has indicated that it has made provisions for expected liabilities, which will not significantly impact current profits [5] Business Progress - The company continues to promote business synergy between the former Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities, accelerating the upgrade of the risk control system, and focusing on investment banking and wealth management sectors to seize industry policy opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng highlights the significant impact of AI and tariffs on market dynamics during the last Spring Festival, with DeepSeek emerging as a key player that challenged the notion of American exceptionalism, leading to a surge in Hong Kong stocks while US tech stocks faced pressure [1][2]. Group 1: AI and Market Trends - The AI industry remains a crucial theme for the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations for continued tech market momentum and potential recovery in Hong Kong stocks [2][5]. - Major AI models and products are set to launch during the Spring Festival, including ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Alibaba's Qwen3.0, which are expected to drive the tech sector [5][6]. - The performance of Nvidia during the holiday period will serve as an important reference for industry expectations and risk appetite [5]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - There are concerns regarding potential tightening of liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks, particularly related to macroeconomic data releases in the US, such as CPI and GDP [10][12]. - The new Fed chair candidate's statements are anticipated to influence market sentiment, although the market has already priced in expectations for interest rate stability [15]. - Geopolitical tensions, especially regarding Iran, could pose significant risks, with potential military actions being a concern that may affect market stability [17][18].

Group 1 - The announcement states that Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd. will add Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. as a primary trading dealer for certain exchange-traded open-end funds starting from February 13, 2026 [1] - Investors can conduct subscription and redemption transactions for the relevant funds through Guolian Minsheng Securities [1] - The announcement includes the contact information for both Guolian Minsheng Securities and Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd. has issued a risk warning regarding the Nasdaq 100 Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), indicating that its secondary market trading price is significantly higher than the reference net asset value, leading to a substantial premium [3] - The fund management company warns that if the premium persists, it may take measures such as applying for a temporary trading halt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange to alert the market about the risks [3] - The fund is currently operating normally with no undisclosed significant information, and the management will adhere to legal regulations and fund contracts in its investment operations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive target price for Guolian Minsheng (601456) is set at 15.80 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 60.73% from the latest closing price of 9.74 yuan. The forecast for 2025 shows a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.008 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 405.26%, with expected operating revenue of 7.411 billion yuan. Recent institutional sentiment is neutral, but high profit growth expectations support the stock price [1][2]. Institutional View - As of February 12, 2026, institutions have set a target price of 15.80 yuan for Guolian Minsheng, which is 60.73% higher than the latest closing price of 9.74 yuan. The projected net profit for 2025 is 2.008 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 405.26% year-on-year, while operating revenue is anticipated to reach 7.411 billion yuan. Current institutional sentiment is neutral, but the expectations for high profit growth provide support for the stock price [2]. Recent Events - On February 9, 2026, Guolian Minsheng announced a plan to increase capital by 200 million yuan to Minsheng Securities, aimed at developing wealth management business and investing in information technology. The shareholding ratio will remain unchanged after the capital increase, which was approved by the board on February 6, 2026, to enhance the subsidiary's business capabilities [3]. Recent Stock Performance - Over the past seven trading days (February 6 to February 12, 2026), Guolian Minsheng's stock price has decreased by 0.81%, with the latest closing price at 9.74 yuan on February 12. On that day, there was a net outflow of 49.12 million yuan in main funds, with a turnover rate of 0.56%. During the same period, the securities sector declined by 0.68%, indicating that the company's stock performance was slightly weaker than the industry [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's recent expansion of visa-free entry policies for 48 countries and optimization of transit visa policies will significantly boost inbound tourism and related consumption [1][2] - Since the second half of 2023, China has implemented a unilateral visa-free entry policy for 48 countries, allowing stays of up to 30 days, and has established visa exemptions with 28 countries, enhancing the convenience of entry for tourists and business travelers [1][2] - The report indicates that there is over 30% growth potential for inbound tourist flows in China, as the country has historically played a role as a source rather than a destination for tourists [2] Group 2 - Domestic airlines are expected to see a significant increase in international flight capacity, with monthly turnover growth exceeding 20% compared to 2019, driven by the ongoing effects of the visa-free policies [2][3] - The report forecasts that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for international passenger flow for Chinese airlines could reach up to 15% over the next three years, as foreign airlines struggle to restore capacity [2] - Major Chinese airlines, including China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Air China, are recommended for investment due to their significant international route capacity and expected benefits from the growing inbound tourism market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the synergistic effects of small nucleic acid drugs and GLP-1 class drugs in the weight loss sector, suggesting they could become a "golden duo" for weight management [1][4]. Group 1: Drug Efficacy and Development - Arrowhead has reported promising initial weight loss results from two small nucleic acid drugs targeting INHBE and ALK7, with ARO-INHBE showing an average fat reduction of 9.9% and liver fat reduction of up to 38.6%, alongside a 3.6% increase in lean tissue [1]. - ARO-ALK7 demonstrated a dose-dependent average reduction of ALK7 mRNA by 88%, confirming the TRiM platform's ability to inhibit fat cell gene expression [1]. - Wave Life's WVE-007 targeting liver INHBE showed a 9.4% reduction in visceral fat and a 4.5% overall fat reduction after three months, with a 3.2% increase in lean body mass [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Collaborations - Major pharmaceutical companies are increasingly investing in small nucleic acid drugs, with Eli Lilly committing $1.2 billion in collaboration with Saint Inbiotech for RNAi candidate drug development for metabolic diseases [3]. - Eli Lilly also invested $1 billion in HAYA's lncRNA platform for obesity and related metabolic disease treatments, while Novo Nordisk partnered with Replicate Bioscience for a $550 million project targeting obesity and type 2 diabetes [3]. - The speed of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in developing small nucleic acid drugs for weight loss is nearly on par with international counterparts, with several companies like Hengrui Medicine and Innovent Biologics actively pursuing this area [5]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in small nucleic acid weight loss targets, including Hengrui Medicine, Chengdu Xian Dao, China National Pharmaceutical Group, East China Pharmaceutical, and others [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the implementation of AI in the bidding and procurement sector, driven by the National Development and Reform Commission's guidelines, which set clear goals for 2026 and 2027, indicating a significant opportunity for companies deeply engaged in AI within this field [1][2]. Group 1: Development Goals - The overall objectives are defined with specific targets for 2026 and 2027, focusing on key scenarios such as bid document detection, intelligent evaluation assistance, and identification of collusion by the end of 2026, with broader application and experience sharing by the end of 2027 [1][2]. Group 2: Scene Applications - The initiative outlines 20 key scenarios across the entire bidding process, including planning, compliance checks, evaluation, and contract signing, aimed at enhancing efficiency and transparency in procurement activities [2][3]. Group 3: Smart Empowerment in Bidding - The use of smart technologies is expected to ensure transparent transactions, enhance competitive selection, and improve regulatory efficiency, thereby reducing biases and enhancing the traceability of the bidding process [3]. Group 4: Beneficial Companies - Companies like EazyDevelop, Xindian Software, and Bosi Software are positioned to benefit from this AI integration, with offerings that streamline the bidding process, enhance compliance, and improve evaluation accuracy [4][5].