美银证券将中国券商股2025至2026年的盈利预测上调0%至13%，预计主要上市中国券商2025至2026年 平均盈利增长30%，中金公司表现料领先。美银证券对2025至2026年A股日均成交额预测上调14%至 18%，料为1.6万亿至1.7万亿元人民币。H股券商的目标价平均上调4%(详见另表)，以反映更高的盈利 预测。充裕的市场流动性继续支持市场上升，四中全会、"十五五"规划以及潜在的监管宽松政策将是值 得关注的关键催化剂。 美银证券发布研报称，预期中国券商2025年第三季平均净利润按季增长9%，同比增长21%，受强劲的 经纪业务费用增长支持，股票交易收入可能超出预期，推动整体表现。中金公司（601995）(03908)和 中信建投（601066）证券(06066)预计将领跑同行，第三季度净利润料分别同比增长258%和116%。 尽管基本面强劲，券商股H股在9月的表现未如理想，市场对2025年第四季至2026年上半年的增长以及 国家队减持的担忧影响了表现。目前估值为1倍远期市账率，平均股本回报率为9%，该行预计随着成交 量强劲增长和盈利超预期，估值仍有上行空间。中金、中信证券（600030）(06030)和 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Bank of America Securities expects a strong performance from Chinese brokerage firms, with a projected average net profit growth of 9% quarter-on-quarter and 21% year-on-year by Q3 2025, driven by robust brokerage fee growth and potentially exceeding stock trading revenue expectations [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and CITIC Securities are anticipated to lead the industry, with projected year-on-year net profit growth of 258% and 116% respectively for Q3 [1] - Despite strong fundamentals, H-shares of brokerage firms underperformed in September due to concerns over growth from Q4 2025 to H1 2026 and state-owned enterprises' reduction in holdings [1] Group 2 - Bank of America Securities has raised its earnings forecast for Chinese brokerage stocks for 2025 to 2026 by 0% to 13%, expecting an average profit growth of 30% among major listed Chinese brokerages, with CICC expected to outperform [2] - The daily average trading volume forecast for A-shares has been increased by 14% to a range of RMB 1.6 trillion to 1.7 trillion [2] - The target prices for H-share brokerages have been raised by an average of 4% to reflect higher profit forecasts, with abundant market liquidity continuing to support market growth [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Bank of America Securities expects Chinese brokerage firms to see significant profit growth in the coming years, driven by strong brokerage fees and stock trading revenues [1][2] - The average net profit for Chinese brokerages is projected to grow by 9% quarter-on-quarter and 21% year-on-year by Q3 2025, with leading firms like China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and CITIC Securities expected to achieve year-on-year profit growth of 258% and 116% respectively [1] - Despite strong fundamentals, H-shares of brokerages underperformed in September due to concerns over growth from Q4 2025 to H1 2026 and state-owned enterprises reducing their holdings [1] Group 2 - Bank of America Securities has raised its earnings forecast for Chinese brokerages for 2025 to 2026 by 0% to 13%, anticipating an average profit growth of 30% for major listed Chinese brokerages [2] - The daily average trading volume forecast for A-shares has been increased by 14% to a range of RMB 1.6 trillion to RMB 1.7 trillion [2] - The target prices for H-share brokerages have been raised by an average of 4% to reflect higher profit expectations, with key catalysts including abundant market liquidity and potential regulatory easing [2]

Group 1 - Broker stocks showed strong performance in early trading, with Guosen Securities rising over 7%, GF Securities up over 5%, and Huatai Securities increasing over 4% [1] - Several securities-related ETFs rose approximately 2% due to market influence [1] Group 2 - Current A-share valuations remain attractive, and the brokerage sector, as a "bull market leader," has relatively low year-to-date gains, indicating potential for catch-up [2] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, with stable economic fundamentals, continuous inflow of incremental funds, and a backdrop of global liquidity easing, A-shares are expected to maintain a trend of steady upward movement [2] - The upward trend in the securities industry remains unchanged, representing a relatively undervalued asset with high year-on-year performance growth [2]

美银证券将券商股2025至2026年的盈利预测上调0%至13%，预计主要上市券商2025至2026年平均盈利 增长30%。该行对2025至2026年A股日均成交额预测上调14%至18%，料为1.6万亿至1.7万亿元。充裕的 市场流动性继续支持市场上升，四中全会、十五五规划以及潜在的监管宽松政策将是值得关注的关键催 化剂。该行的首选股包括中金、中信证券和广发证券，预计2025至2026财年盈利增长强劲，股本回报率 持续改善。 美银证券发表报告，预期内地券商2025年第三季平均净利润按季增长9%，按年增长21%，受强劲的经 纪业务费用增长支持，股票交易收入可能超出预期，推动整体表现。中金公司和中信建投证券预计将领 跑同行，第三季度净利润料分别按年增长258%和116%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with the expanded subsidy policy for vehicle replacement in 2025 expected to accelerate domestic sales and return to average levels. Although export growth has temporarily slowed, there is significant overseas market potential. Current low valuations of truck stocks suggest that future profits may reach new highs alongside sales, indicating untapped investment value in truck stocks [1]. Sales Performance - In August, heavy truck wholesale, terminal, and export volumes increased by 46.7%, 66.0%, and 15.6% year-on-year, respectively. The wholesale sales volume reached 92,000 units, with a year-to-date total of 716,000 units, reflecting a 14.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - Terminal sales in August were 67,000 units, with a cumulative total of 486,000 units for the year, marking a 25.3% year-on-year increase [2]. - Heavy truck exports totaled 39,000 units in August, with a year-to-date total of 246,000 units, showing a 7.1% year-on-year increase [2]. Inventory and Demand - Inventory levels are healthy, with total inventory at 129,000 units as of the end of August, a slight year-on-year decrease. The dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio stands at 2.4, indicating a reasonable range [3]. - Since the beginning of 2025, logistics demand has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% in August for road freight turnover [3]. Market Share - In the first eight months of 2025, Foton Motor's heavy truck wholesale market share increased by 5.4 percentage points to 12.6% [3]. - Dongfeng Group, Shaanxi Automobile Group, and Foton Motor's terminal sales market shares also saw increases, reaching 21.1%, 11.5%, and 12.3%, respectively [3]. - Heavy Truck Group and Foton Motor's export market shares increased by 5.1 and 5.2 percentage points to 45.8% and 8.7%, respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with the expanded subsidy policy for vehicle replacement in 2025 expected to accelerate domestic sales and return to average levels. Although export growth has temporarily slowed, there is significant overseas market potential. Current low valuations of truck stocks suggest that future profits may reach new highs alongside sales, indicating that the investment value of truck stocks has not been fully realized [1]. Sales Performance - In August, heavy truck wholesale, terminal, and export volumes increased by 46.7%, 66.0%, and 15.6% year-on-year, respectively. The wholesale sales volume reached 92,000 units, with a year-to-date total of 716,000 units, reflecting a 14.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - Terminal sales in August totaled 67,000 units, with a year-to-date total of 486,000 units, marking a 25.3% year-on-year increase. The significant growth in terminal sales is attributed to the effective vehicle replacement policy [2]. - Heavy truck exports in August amounted to 39,000 units, with a year-to-date total of 246,000 units, showing a 7.1% year-on-year increase. Exports to regions outside Russia saw a substantial increase of 71.7% year-on-year [2]. Inventory and Demand - Inventory levels are healthy, with total inventory at 129,000 units as of the end of August, a slight year-on-year decrease. The dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio stands at 2.4, indicating a reasonable range [3]. - Since the beginning of 2025, logistics demand has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% in August for road freight turnover [3]. Market Share - In the first eight months of 2025, Foton Motor's heavy truck wholesale market share increased by 5.4 percentage points to 12.6%. Dongfeng Group, Shaanxi Automobile Group, and Foton Motor also saw increases in their terminal sales market shares [3].

Core Insights - CXL technology is enhancing computing efficiency through storage pooling and high-speed interconnects, with significant implications for AI applications [1] - Major players like NVIDIA and Alibaba Cloud are actively developing CXL capabilities to improve performance and resource utilization in AI systems [2][3] Group 1: CXL Technology Overview - CXL is an open high-speed serial protocol designed to facilitate communication between CPU, memory, and GPU, achieving higher data throughput and lower latency [1] - The technology supports efficient collaboration between accelerators like GPUs and FPGAs with main processors, addressing memory bandwidth bottlenecks and enhancing computational efficiency [1] Group 2: NVIDIA's Strategic Moves - NVIDIA has invested $5 billion in Intel to develop customized x86 CPUs for its AI infrastructure, leveraging Intel's role in the CXL alliance to enhance interoperability between NVLink and CXL technologies [2] - The acquisition of Enfabrica allows NVIDIA to integrate advanced AI interconnect technologies, including low-latency data paths and high-capacity memory support, optimizing GPU and CPU interconnects [2] Group 3: Alibaba Cloud's Innovations - Alibaba Cloud has launched the world's first CXL 2.0 Switch-based PolarDB database server, achieving ultra-low latency and high bandwidth for remote memory access [3] - The server enhances resource utilization and inference throughput by enabling collaborative pathways between GPU, CPU, and shared memory pools, positioning itself as a robust foundation for AI-driven data solutions [3]

Group 1 - Chinese brokerage stocks experienced a general rise, with notable increases in shares such as GF Securities (4.05% increase), Guotai Junan (1.93% increase), and China Merchants Securities (1.34% increase) [1] - Since 2025, there has been a significant increase in the enthusiasm for bond financing among brokerages, with 71 brokerages issuing a total of 672 bonds, raising 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.22% [1] - In 2025, 33 brokerages issued bonds exceeding 10 billion yuan, with leading brokerages dominating the issuance scale [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities predicts that the profitability of brokerages will continue to grow significantly in Q3 2025, driven by increased market activity, with expected revenue growth of 42.4% and net profit growth of 62.8% year-on-year [2] - The firm anticipates that equity investment returns will be crucial for the overall investment performance of brokerages, benefiting from the rising stock market, with investment business revenue expected to grow by 35% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [2]

Group 1 - Chinese brokerage stocks experienced a general rise, with notable increases in shares such as GF Securities (up 4.05% to HKD 21.08), Guotai Junan (up 1.93% to HKD 6.34), and China Merchants Securities (up 1.34% to HKD 16.59) [1] - Since 2025, there has been a significant increase in the enthusiasm for bond financing among brokerages, with 71 brokerages issuing a total of 672 bonds, raising a total of CNY 1.27 trillion, representing a year-on-year increase of 80.22% [1] - In 2025, 33 brokerages issued bonds exceeding CNY 10 billion, with leading brokerages dominating the issuance scale [1] Group 2 - Zhezhang Securities predicts that the profitability of brokerages will continue to grow significantly in Q3 2025, driven by increased market activity, with expected revenue growth of 42.4% year-on-year and net profit growth of 62.8% [2] - The firm anticipates that equity investment returns will be a key factor in the overall investment performance of brokerages, benefiting from a rising stock market, with investment business income expected to grow by 35% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [2]