Group 1 - The escalation of the US-EU tariff dispute has heightened market risk aversion, leading to a surge in international precious metal prices, with spot gold briefly surpassing $4690 per ounce, setting a new historical high [1] - Starting February 1, 2026, the US will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, as stated by Trump on social media [1] - If an agreement for the "complete and thorough purchase of Greenland" is not reached, the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1, 2026 [1] Group 2 - Gold stocks were active in early trading, with Zijin Mining International (02259) rising by 3.86% to HKD 172.4, and Zhaojin Mining (01818) increasing by 3.84% to HKD 37.9 [2] - China National Gold International (02099) saw a rise of 1.96% to HKD 192.8, while Shandong Gold (01787) increased by 1.33% to HKD 42.78 [2]

香港联交所最新资料显示，1月15日，Schroders PLC减持山东黄金（600547）(01787)328.475万股，每股 作价42.0027港元，总金额约为1.38亿港元。减持后最新持股数目为4950.54万股，最新持股比例为 4.97%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，1月15日，Schroders PLC减持山东黄金(01787)328.475万 股，每股作价42.0027港元，总金额约为1.38亿港元。减持后最新持股数目为4950.54万股，最新持股比 例为4.97%。 ...

该行对中国黄金行业给予"增持"评级，预期所有中国黄金生产商今年都可录得快速增长，首选股为山东 黄金及招金矿业，给予"买入"评级，目标价分别为52.06港元及44.78港元。该行并给予紫金国际"持 有"评级，预计今年3月份基石投资者禁售期结束后其股价可能会受压，目标价152港元；对紫金矿业则 给予"买入"评级，目标价上调至46.43港元，相信其作为多金属生产商可受惠。 中银国际发表研究报告指，近期全球地缘政治紧张局势加剧，市场预期美国将进一步减息，令黄金作为 避险资产的吸引力增加，目前预计2026年平均金价将按年升40%至4800美元，明年或可进一步升至每盎 司5200美元，长期金价预测为每盎司5500美元。 ...

每经AI快讯，黄金股早盘活跃。截至发稿，紫金黄金国际(02259.HK)涨3.86%，报172.4港元；招金矿业 (01818.HK)涨3.84%，报37.9港元；中国黄金国际(02099.HK)涨1.96%，报192.8港元；山东黄金 (01787.HK)涨1.33%，报42.78港元。 ...

消息面上，欧美关税争端升级刺激市场避险情绪升温，周一早盘，国际贵金属价格应声上涨，现货黄金 一度突破4690美元／盎司，刷新历史新高。特朗普周末在社交平台上表示，自2026年2月1日起，丹麦、 挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰出口至美国的所有商品加征10%的关税。他表示，这一关 税措施将持续实施，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。若未达成协议，自2026年6月1日起， 这些加征关税的税率将提高至25%。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股早盘活跃，截至发稿，紫金黄金国际(02259)涨3.86%，报172.4港元；招金矿 业(01818)涨3.84%，报37.9港元；中国黄金国际(02099)涨1.96%，报192.8港元；山东黄金(01787)涨 1.33%，报42.78港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [10]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with significant price increases across various metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies on the supply and demand dynamics of key metals, particularly copper and aluminum [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacities, as these factors are critical in determining future price movements [26][35]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Concerns over tariffs have led to a temporary pullback in silver prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡 and 盛达资源 for potential investment opportunities [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [2]. - The report notes that while high copper prices are suppressing end-user demand, the long-term consumption outlook remains strong due to infrastructure investments [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [3]. - The report indicates that production cuts in aluminum processing are occurring, particularly in regions like Guizhou and Henan [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices are on an upward trend, supported by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 力勤资源 for investment opportunities [4]. Tin - Supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic factors are providing short-term support for tin prices [5]. - The report suggests that companies like 华锡有色 and 兴业银锡 may benefit from these market conditions [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to export policy expectations and demand uncertainties [6]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as 赣锋锂业 and 天齐锂业 for potential investment [6]. Cobalt - Progress in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support high cobalt prices in the short term [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 腾远钴业 for investment opportunities [9].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant bull run, with international gold prices rising over 70% in the past year, marking the largest increase since 1979, and domestic gold jewelry prices also surging [1][2]. Group 1: Upstream Mining Companies - In 2025, gold mining companies are witnessing substantial revenue and net profit growth, with Zijin Mining leading with revenue of 254.2 billion and net profit of 37.864 billion [2]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold with revenue of 83.783 billion and net profit of 3.956 billion, and Zhongjin Gold with revenue of 53.976 billion and net profit of 3.679 billion [2]. - The profit growth of mining companies is significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating a "scissors gap" effect where cost increases are lower than gold price increases [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Multiple factors are driving the continued rise in gold prices, including geopolitical risks, global de-dollarization narratives, and central bank purchases [3]. - As of December 2025, China's gold reserves reached 2306.32 tons, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for 14 consecutive months [3]. Group 3: Downstream Jewelry Brands - In contrast to the booming upstream sector, downstream gold jewelry brands are facing challenges, with significant revenue declines reported in 2025 [6]. - For instance, Chow Tai Fook's revenue dropped to 89.66 billion HKD, a decrease of 17.53% year-on-year, while Chow Sang Sang's revenue fell by 15.34% [6]. - The decline in performance is attributed to high gold prices and macroeconomic uncertainties affecting retail consumption [6]. Group 4: Store Closures and Market Dynamics - A wave of store closures is impacting jewelry brands, with Chow Tai Fook closing 606 stores and Chow Sang Sang reducing its franchise stores by 380 [7]. - Despite the overall downturn, some brands like Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji are experiencing growth, with Lao Pu Gold's revenue increasing by 250.95% [8]. - The success of these brands reflects a structural shift in the industry towards differentiated products and branding strategies [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The gold bull market is expected to continue, but volatility is anticipated, particularly for jewelry companies that must innovate to meet consumer demands [11]. - Analysts suggest that while gold prices may not rise as sharply in 2026, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and the need to hedge against declining dollar credit [10][11].

Core Insights - The top three companies with the highest short positions as of January 9 are Vanke Enterprises (02202), Dongfang Electric (01072), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919), with short ratios of 18.74%, 17.39%, and 16.49% respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest absolute increase in short positions are Goldwind Technology (02208), Zhaoyan New Drug (06127), and Jingtai Holdings (02228), with increases of 6.84%, 2.14%, and 1.85% respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest absolute decrease in short positions are COSCO Shipping Energy (01138), Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050), and Huahong Semiconductor (01347), with decreases of -1.77%, -0.80%, and -0.71% respectively [1][3] Top 10 Short Positions - Vanke Enterprises (02202) has a short position of 413 million shares, representing a short ratio of 18.74% [2] - Dongfang Electric (01072) has a short position of 70.93 million shares, with a short ratio of 17.39% [2] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919) has a short position of 475 million shares, with a short ratio of 16.49% [2] - Other notable companies in the top 10 include Heng Rui Medicine (01276) at 15.19% and Ping An Insurance (02318) at 14.74% [2] Largest Increases in Short Positions - Goldwind Technology (02208) saw its short ratio increase from 4.35% to 11.18%, an increase of 6.84% [2] - Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) increased from 6.65% to 8.79%, an increase of 2.14% [2] - Jingtai Holdings (02228) increased from 3.34% to 5.19%, an increase of 1.85% [2] Largest Decreases in Short Positions - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) decreased from 7.11% to 5.34%, a decrease of -1.77% [3] - Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) decreased from 6.52% to 5.72%, a decrease of -0.80% [3] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347) decreased from 4.85% to 4.13%, a decrease of -0.71% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities predicts that 2026 will be a "Red Horse Year" for the Chinese base metals market, driven by favorable conditions for electrification and AI power infrastructure in 2023 due to factors such as a weak dollar and the US interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The supply of copper and aluminum remains tight [1] - Demand drivers for this year include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery production, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] - The anti-involution policy is becoming more balanced, although recent enforcement has been weak [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Preferred stocks include aluminum companies as alternative investments for AI power supply, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio between 8 to 10 times [1] - Positive outlook on gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks; neutral view on coal; bearish on solar energy and construction materials (like steel) due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] Group 3: Specific Stock Picks - Key stock picks include China Aluminum (601600) (02600), Zijin Mining (601899) (02899), China Hongqiao (01378), Shandong Gold (600547) (01787), and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) (01772) [1] - Underperforming stocks identified include Tongwei Co. (600438) (600438.SH), Xinyi Solar (00968), Ansteel (000898) (00347), and China Resources Cement (01313) [1]