高盛认为，如果美联储公信力受损，而投资者将一小部分美债持仓转换为黄金，国际金价可能会飙升至 每盎司近5000美元。基线预测是：到2026年中升至每盎司4000美元；尾部风险情境下升至4500美元；哪 怕仅1%私人持有的美债转投黄金，金价可能飙升至近5000美元。 智通财经APP获悉，9月7日，中国人民银行公布的数据显示，截至8月末，我国黄金储备为7402万盎 司，较7月末的7396万盎司增加6万盎司，为连续第10个月增持黄金。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表 示，我国官方国际储备资产中黄金占比明显低于全球平均水平。从优化国际储备结构、稳慎扎实推进人 民币国际化，以及应对当前国际环境变化等角度出发，未来央行增持黄金仍是大方向。 9月3日，资管机构Crescat Capital合伙人兼宏观策略师塔维•科斯塔(Tavi Costa)汇编并发布数据显示，在 金价创下新纪录之际，黄金在除美联储外央行的储备占比，自1996年以来首次超过美国国债。科斯塔认 为，这一转折点可能是"近代史上最重大的全球再平衡的开始"。这反映了各国央行在战略性调整储备资 产结构：从美元债券转向黄金等实物资产。 国际金价方面，9月6日，现货黄金涨1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold stocks is driven by a combination of rising COMEX gold futures and a bullish stock market, with significant gains observed in gold-related ETFs and individual stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 13:15, the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 4.43%, with a year-to-date gain of 69.75% [1] - Key holdings such as Western Gold reached the daily limit, while Silver Nonferrous approached the limit, and other stocks like Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and Shandong Gold also showed strong performance [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) rose by 3.6%, and the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) increased by 0.32% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The rise in gold stocks is attributed to the ongoing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, alongside a new high in COMEX gold futures, which surpassed $3600 per ounce [1] - Since July, various factors such as "anti-involution," tariff conflicts, and the anticipation of Fed rate cuts have contributed to volatility in the non-ferrous metal sector [1] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Gold stocks have increased by 16.39% recently, which is notably lower than the 23.46% rise in other non-ferrous indices and a 50.66% increase in rare earth indices [1] - The ongoing bullish sentiment in the A-share market may lead to a demand for undervalued gold stocks, with expectations for performance recovery and long-term growth potential [1]

Group 1 - Bridgewater China emphasizes the value of gold as a diversification asset despite its significant price increase, driven by persistent inflation concerns, high government debt, and escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - Investors have not yet made substantial adjustments to their gold allocations, indicating a potential for further investment in gold as a hedge against currency risk [1] - The price movements of gold reflect a growing trend among global central banks and investors to use gold as a safeguard against currency devaluation and significant capital loss due to regional conflicts [1] Group 2 - As of September 5, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index rose by 3.62%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Western Gold (up 9.70%) and Zijin Mining (up 5.85%) [3] - The Gold Stock ETF Fund saw a 48.70% increase in net value over the past six months, ranking in the top 1.56% among comparable funds [4] - The Gold Stock ETF Fund has demonstrated strong performance metrics, including a maximum monthly return of 16.59% and a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [4] Group 3 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, with the top ten stocks accounting for 66.52% of the index [5] - The top weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, with Zijin Mining holding a weight of 10.84% [7]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Highlights - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) rose over 2% after announcing exclusive distribution agreements for brand cigars with Hubei and Shandong Tobacco [1] - Sportswear stocks generally increased, with Li Ning (02331) up nearly 1% and Tmall (06110) up nearly 2%, following a government directive to enhance the modern sports industry and boost consumption [1] - He Yu-B (02256) surged over 3% as the company announced multiple positive developments, including the approval of oral PD-L1 combined with Gorai Leisai for Phase II clinical trials [1] - Gold stocks collectively rose, with Lingbao Gold (03330) up over 4%, China Gold International (02099) up over 1%, and Zijin Mining (02899) up over 3%, amid expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut [1] - UBTECH (09880) increased over 2% after Citigroup reported that the company has received 400 million RMB in humanoid robot orders and secured a $1 billion strategic investment from a Middle Eastern fund [1] - Huimai Technology (01860) surged over 12%, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date stock price increase of over 110% due to the continuous iteration of its AI-driven smart bidding system [1] Group 2: Other Notable Stocks - Wanka Yilian (01762) rose over 11% after announcing a comprehensive cooperation memorandum with Alibaba Cloud to create an AI marketing ecosystem [2] - Longpan Technology (02465) increased over 10%, with Citic Securities indicating potential opportunities in the battery sector due to an upcoming significant meeting [2] - Juzi Bio (02367) rose over 4%, with institutions optimistic about the recovery of live streaming during the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival [2] - Shoucheng Holdings (00697) increased over 8% after its subsidiary announced additional investment in Songyan Power amounting to several million RMB [2] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Highlights - Salesforce (CRM.US) fell 4.85% after reporting a 9.8% year-over-year revenue growth for Q2, with Q3 revenue guidance slightly below expectations [3] - American Eagle (AEO.US) surged 37.96% after exceeding expectations in its Q2 earnings report [3] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.US) rose 1.49% with a 19% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, marking a record high [3] - United Microelectronics (UMC.US) increased 3.46%, reporting a 1.86% year-over-year sales growth for the first eight months of the year [3] - ZTO Express (ZTO.US) continued to rise by 0.94%, with the logistics industry index in China at 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Bilibili (BILI.US) rose 0.99%, with research indicating high growth in the gaming industry supported by policy, expecting continued quarter-over-quarter improvement [3] - Waterdrop (WDH.US) increased 2.25%, reporting nearly a 120% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, driven by AI model empowerment [3] Group 4: Additional U.S. Stock Movements - Sanofi (SNY.US) fell 9.14% despite achieving all primary and secondary endpoints in a Phase III study for Amlitelimab, as results did not meet market expectations [4] - Toyota (TM.US) rose 2.40% after announcing plans to produce a pure electric vehicle model at its Czech factory, marking its first electric vehicle production in Europe [4] - Baidu (BIDU.US) increased 1.88% following the release of an action plan by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to enhance intelligent cloud services [4] Group 5: Earnings Reports and Forecasts - C3.ai (AI.US) fell 7.31% after reporting Q1 results and revenue guidance for FY2026 that fell short of expectations [5] - Samsara (IOT.US) rose over 10% with a 30% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 [5] - UiPath (PATH.US) increased nearly 5%, reporting Q2 revenue of $362 million, a 14% year-over-year growth, and projecting FY2026 revenue between $1.571 billion and $1.576 billion [5] - DocuSign (DOCU.US) rose nearly 9% after reporting Q2 revenue of $800.6 million, a 9% year-over-year increase, with GAAP gross margin at 79.3% [5]

港股市场黄金股集体上涨，其中，龙资源涨超5%，潼关黄金、灵宝黄金涨超4%，集海资源、紫金矿 业、招金矿业、坛金矿业、中国白银集团涨超3%。 ...

中信证券研报表示，4月底以来黄金处在震荡市中，该行认为是关税冲击、美国财政、地缘政治、央行购金等因素形成了复杂的多空平衡。但这些 因素的改变有望开启黄金上行趋势。关税的预期好转可能暂告一段落，而对滞胀的影响可能刚开始体现；年内地缘风险明显下降的可能性较小； 美联储可能开启提前曲线降息；全球央行的购金趋势稳定。中性假设下，该行的模型预测年底金价有望超过3730美元/盎司。 （原标题：港股异动 | 黄金股集体走高 ADP就业数据强化美降息预期 市场聚焦今晚非农数据） 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股集体走高，截至发稿，灵宝黄金(03330)涨6.32%，报16.33港元；中国黄金国际(02099)涨3.71%，报120.2港元；招金矿 业(01818)涨3.7%，报28.04港元；紫金矿业(02899)涨3.07%，报27.5港元。 消息面上，9月4日晚，ADP数据显示，美国8月ADP就业人数增加5.4万人，低于市场预期。另据美国劳工部最新数据，美国截至8月30日当周初请 失业金人数 23.7万人，高于市场预期。美国劳动力市场持续降温进一步强化了美联储降息预期，目前市场定价显示，美联储在9月降息的概率已升 至97.4% ...

Group 1 - Gold stocks collectively rose, with Lingbao Gold increasing by 6.32% to HKD 16.33, China Gold International up by 3.71% to HKD 120.2, Zhaojin Mining up by 3.7% to HKD 28.04, and Zijin Mining up by 3.07% to HKD 27.5 [1] - The ADP report indicated that U.S. employment increased by 54,000 in August, which was below market expectations, while initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 were 237,000, exceeding expectations [1] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with market pricing indicating a 97.4% probability of a rate cut in September [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reported that since late April, gold has been in a volatile market due to factors such as tariff impacts, U.S. fiscal policy, geopolitical issues, and central bank gold purchases [2] - The report suggests that changes in these factors could initiate an upward trend in gold prices, with a stable trend in global central bank gold purchases [2] - Under a neutral assumption, the model predicts that gold prices could exceed USD 3,730 per ounce by the end of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to support gold prices, especially in the context of high inflation and declining real interest rates, making gold an attractive investment option [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 5, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index rose by 1.29%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Hunan Silver (up 3.81%) and Chifeng Jilong Gold (up 3.09%) [2] - The Gold Stock ETF Fund (159322) increased by 1.35%, with a recent price of 1.43 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 7.71% over the past week [2] - The Gold Stock ETF Fund recorded a turnover of 1.25% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 929,500 yuan [2] Group 2: Fund Performance Metrics - The Gold Stock ETF Fund has seen a net value increase of 48.70% over the past six months, ranking in the top 1.56% among 3,579 index stock funds [3] - The fund's highest monthly return since inception was 16.59%, with a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 31.09% [3] - The fund's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.51, placing it in the top 2 out of 6 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [3] Group 3: Fund Composition and Weighting - The CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, with the top ten stocks accounting for 66.52% of the index [5] - The top weighted stocks include Zijin Mining (10.84%), Shandong Gold (10.02%), and Zhongjin Gold (7.37%) [7]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a high opening but subsequently declined, with notable drops including Tongguan Gold down 8%, China Gold International down over 5%, and Lingbao Gold down 4.4% [1][2] - Recent spot gold prices reached new highs, but there was a slight decline of 0.27% in early Asian trading, falling below $3,550 per ounce [2] - Analysts indicate that after reaching new highs, the risk of a short-term technical correction in gold stocks has significantly increased, urging investors to remain vigilant [2][3] Group 2 - Many gold companies' stock prices have risen far beyond their net profit growth rates, leading to historically high valuation metrics such as P/E ratios, suggesting signs of a bubble [3] - High valuations necessitate either a stock price correction or earnings growth to be absorbed, increasing short-term risks [3] - The long-term drivers for gold prices, including central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks, remain strong, indicating a future dynamic between short-term volatility and long-term trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong gold stocks have shown a trend of high opening and low closing, with significant declines in various companies' stock prices, indicating a potential short-term technical correction after recent highs in the gold market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Recent performance of gold stocks includes notable declines: Tongguan Gold down 8%, China Gold International down over 5%, Lingbao Gold down 4.4%, and others experiencing declines of over 3% [1] - The latest prices for key gold stocks are as follows: Tongguan Gold at 2.060, China Gold International at 118.800, and Lingbao Gold at 15.820 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The spot gold market has recently reached new highs, but there was a drop of 0.27% today, falling below 3550 USD/ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that the rapid increase in gold stock prices has outpaced the growth in net profits, leading to historically high valuation metrics such as P/E ratios, indicating potential bubble-like conditions [1] - The long-term drivers for gold prices, including central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks, remain strong, suggesting a battle between short-term volatility and long-term trends [1]