证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) 安踏体育（02020.HK） 24H1 业绩点评：多品牌高质量增长，百亿回购计 划彰显发展信心 2024 年 08 月 28 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------|-------|-------|--------|-------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 53651 | 62356 | 69713 | 77193 | 85180 | | 同比(%) | 8.76 | 16.23 | 11.80 | 10.73 | 10.35 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 7590 | 10236 | 13676 | 13480 | 15189 | | 同比(%) | (1.68) | 34.86 | 33.60 | (1.43) | 12.68 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.68 | 3.61 | 4.83 | ...

关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 400 余家大机构在二季度买了拼多多 400 余家大机构在二季度买了拼多多 携程称机酒行业价格下降，预计四季度缓解 茶百道毛利减少，因为给经销商减负 苹果 CFO 明年卸任，十年回报股东超 8500 亿美元 安踏半年净利润增长超 60%，商品周转加快 Anthropic 公开了 Claude 的系统提示词 拼多多是机构投资者二季度买入最多的中概股。据 13F 文件，当季共有 147 家资产管理规模 1 亿美元以 上的投资机构建仓拼多多，环比增加逾五成；增持的多了 20%、达到 269 家。清仓和减持的分别少了 30% 和 16%。 以拼多多二季度股票成交均价计算，大机构们合计净买入价值约 66 亿美元的拼多多股票。建仓的不乏 挪威央行、文艺复兴基金这样的著名机构。 一些早已重仓拼多多的中资机构下了更多注。景林增持约 157 万股、价值超 2 亿美元（按二季度交易均 价，下同），重新把拼多多买回最大持仓；泰仁资本买了近 2.5 亿美元，高毅资产增持约 0.6 亿美元。 徐新的今日资本没买也没卖，拼多多持仓占比接近九成。高瓴虽然大幅减持了约 4 亿美元拼多多 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [2][6] Core Insights - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 33.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.721 billion yuan, up 62.6% [3][6] - The company's e-commerce channel revenue grew by 25.1%, increasing its share of total revenue by 3.0 percentage points to 33.8% [1][6] - The performance of the Anta brand and FILA brand showed resilience, with Anta's revenue growing by 13.5% to 16.077 billion yuan, while FILA's revenue increased by 6.8% to 13.056 billion yuan [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 64.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 22.9%, up 6.9 percentage points [5][6] - The average inventory turnover days decreased by 10 days to 114 days [5] - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 was 8.502 billion yuan, with a cash balance of 32.399 billion yuan at the end of the period [5] Brand Performance - Anta brand's revenue accounted for 47.7% of total revenue, with a retail revenue growth in the mid-single digits [1][4] - FILA brand's revenue growth was slower, but the core segment is expected to see double-digit growth, particularly in footwear [1][4] - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, saw significant revenue growth of 41.8% to 4.602 billion yuan [4] Market Data - As of August 27, 2024, the closing price was 71.650 HKD, with a market capitalization of 202.957 billion HKD [1][3] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 1.18 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 50.1% [3]

[Table_Date] 2024 年 08 月 28 日 [Table_Title] FILA 增速放缓，宣布百亿回购计划 [Table_Title2] 安踏体育(2020.HK) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------|----------------------------|------------| | [Table_DataInfo]评级： 买入 | | 股票代码： | 2020 | | 上次评级： 买入 | | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 90.95/65.2 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 2,029.57 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 71.65 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 2,029.57 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,832.62 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2024H1 公司实现收入/归母净利/经营性现金流净额分别为 337.35/77.21/85.02 亿元、同比增长 13.8%/62.6%/-16.4%，归母净利润增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) with a current price of HKD 71.65 [1] Core Views - Anta Sports reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2024, with a revenue increase of 13.8% year-on-year and a significant net profit growth of 62.6% including the impact of the joint venture AMER [6][11] - The company emphasizes high-quality growth and substantial share buybacks, reflecting confidence in future performance [11] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached CNY 33.74 billion, with a net profit of CNY 7.72 billion, marking a 62.6% increase year-on-year [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) stood at CNY 2.75, with a proposed interim cash dividend of HKD 1.18, resulting in a payout ratio of 50.1% [6] - Gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 64.1%, while operating profit margin remained stable at 25.7% [8][9] Brand Performance - The main brand Anta, along with FILA and other brands, showed revenue growth of mid-single digits, high-single digits, and 35-40% respectively [6][10] - Online sales increased by 25.1%, contributing to a total revenue growth of approximately 9% in offline channels [7][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to focus on a "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy, enhancing operational efficiency and retail capabilities [10][11] - Anta aims for a revenue growth target of 10-15% for the main brand in 2024, with FILA's target adjusted to high-single digits [11] Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of June 2024, the company reported a net cash position of CNY 32.4 billion, indicating strong liquidity and risk resilience [11] - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 was CNY 8.5 billion, a decrease of 16.4% year-on-year [9][11] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued high-quality growth and plans for share buybacks of up to HKD 10 billion over the next 18 months, signaling confidence in future performance [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [4] Core Views - Anta Sports reported a revenue growth of 14% and a profit growth of 63% in H1 2024, exceeding expectations. The company achieved a revenue of 33.7 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 0.8 percentage points to 64.1% [1] - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 1.18 per share, maintaining a stable payout ratio of 50.1%. Additionally, a share buyback plan of up to HKD 10 billion over the next 18 months was announced [1] Revenue Summary - Anta brand revenue grew by 13.5% in H1 2024, driven by product and channel optimization. Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) sales increased by 10.5%, e-commerce by 20.1%, and traditional wholesale by 8.5%. Over 80% of Anta's stores operate under the DTC model [2] - FILA brand revenue increased by 6.8% to 13.1 billion yuan, with strong performance in e-commerce and adult categories. The brand focuses on high-quality development and expanding product categories [3] Profitability Summary - Anta's gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 56.6%, and operating profit margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 21.8% in H1 2024, attributed to channel structure changes and product mix optimization [2] - FILA's gross margin rose by 1 percentage point to 70.2%, while operating profit margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 28.6% [8] Future Outlook - The company expects a revenue growth of 12% and a profit growth of 35% for 2024. The anticipated contribution from Amer Sports and a one-time gain of 1.6 billion yuan are factored into the profit forecast [9] - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 13.836 billion, 14.093 billion, and 15.998 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 13 times for 2024 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Anta Sports [2][4]. Core Views - Anta Sports' H1 performance exceeded expectations, with plans to repurchase shares worth up to HKD 10 billion [4]. - The company expects to continue growth above industry levels in H2, leading to an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [4]. Financial Summary - H1 revenue reached CNY 33.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [4]. - Excluding Amer, net profit was CNY 6.16 billion, up 17% year-on-year [4]. - Gross margin improved to 64.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [4]. - Operating profit margin remained stable at 25.7% [4]. Brand Performance - Main brand revenue grew by 13.5% in H1, totaling CNY 16.08 billion, driven by product matrix optimization and channel refinement [4]. - FILA's H1 revenue was CNY 13.06 billion, up 6.8%, with a gross margin of 70.2% [4]. - Other brands saw significant growth, with revenue of CNY 4.6 billion, a 41.8% increase [4]. Future Expectations - The main brand's performance in July and August aligns with expectations, maintaining a forecast of double-digit growth for the year [4]. - FILA's annual revenue growth forecast has been revised down to high single digits due to pressures in the trendy and children's segments [4]. - Other brands are expected to meet initial revenue forecasts, with Descente projected to grow over 20% and KOLON over 30% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Anta Sports, with a target price trimmed to HK$ 97.05, based on an 18x FY25E P/E [2][3]. Core Insights - The 1H24 results showed one-off gains and dividends that offset slow core profit growth, with Anta brand sales growth at 14% YoY, exceeding retail sales growth [2][7]. - The management reiterated a retail sales growth target of 10%+ for the Anta brand in FY24E, supported by various factors including a new product pipeline and rapid online sales growth [2][7]. - FILA brand's FY24E guidance has been revised down to high single digits due to sluggish sales growth and inventory management challenges [2][7]. - The report highlights a significant share buyback program of up to HK$ 10 billion over the next 18 months, which could provide downside protection for the stock [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62,356 million in FY23A to RMB 70,322 million in FY24E, reflecting a YoY growth of 12.8% [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 11,277 million in FY23A to RMB 13,686.8 million in FY24E, with a YoY growth of 21.4% [3][11]. - The report indicates a net profit CAGR of 16% during FY23-26E, despite adjustments of -3% for FY24E and FY25E due to slower FILA sales growth [2][8]. Earnings Revision - The earnings estimates for FY24E and FY25E have been adjusted slightly downwards, with revenue for FY24E now at RMB 70,322 million, reflecting a 0.1% increase from the previous estimate [8][9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 62.7% for FY24E, slightly down from previous estimates [8][9]. - The diluted EPS for FY24E is revised to RMB 4.389, a decrease of 3.0% from earlier projections [8][9]. Operating Performance - The operating profit margin for 1H24 was reported at 30.4%, significantly higher than the previous year, driven by improved gross profit margins and effective cost management [10][12]. - The report notes a 30% drop in operating cash flow, attributed to a high base effect from 1H23, rather than a fundamental decline in business performance [7][10]. - The Anta brand's retail sales growth is projected to remain positive, with expectations of continued strong performance in the second half of FY24E [12].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 increased by 13.8% to RMB 33,735 million[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 62.6% to RMB 7,721 million, including non-cash accounting gains from Amer Sports[2] - Basic earnings per share grew by 58.0% to RMB 2.75[8] - Gross profit increased to RMB 21,618 million, up 15.3% from RMB 18,755 million in the previous year[12] - Operating profit for Anta reached RMB 8,660 million, a 13.6% increase compared to RMB 7,623 million in 2023[12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 17.0% to RMB 6.16 billion, up from RMB 5.26 billion in the previous year[18] - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 9,475 million, up from RMB 6,173 million in the same period last year, marking an increase of 53.5%[132] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 1.18 per share, representing 50.1% of net profit attributable to shareholders[8] - The company declared an interim dividend of 118 HKD cents per share, a 43.9% increase from 82 HKD cents in the previous year[12] - The interim dividend for 2024 is projected to be HKD 118 per share, reflecting a consistent increase from previous years[117] Store Expansion and Market Presence - Total number of Anta stores reached 7,073, with 2,831 dedicated children's stores[9] - FILA stores totaled 1,981 across mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore[9] - Anta Sports plans to increase the number of Anta and Anta Kids stores to between 7,100 and 7,200 in mainland China and between 2,800 and 2,900 overseas by the end of 2024[112] - FILA aims to expand its store count to between 2,100 and 2,200 across mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore by the end of 2024[112] E-commerce and Digital Strategy - The company is strategically increasing investments in e-commerce, which has shown rapid growth outpacing major competitors[21] - Anta's e-commerce business contributed 33.8% to the overall revenue, up from 30.8% in the same period last year, with a 25.1% increase in absolute terms compared to the previous year[27] - The company has implemented artificial intelligence in product design and live streaming operations to improve product development efficiency and enhance consumer experience[39] Product Development and Innovation - The company launched core technologies and products such as Anta Membrane, Soft Heart Yarn, and C10 Pro during the fiscal period to enhance consumer satisfaction and product quality[39] - Anta Sports has launched two high-performance cushioning running shoes, "Travel Step" and "Travel Path," utilizing PG7 technology co-developed with Sinopec, enhancing comfort with Sorona® fiber[29] - The company is expanding its product offerings in running shoes, having signed Ethiopian long-distance runner Kenenisa Bekele as a spokesperson, enhancing its professional running shoe matrix[28] Financial Health and Cash Flow - Operating cash inflow for the period was RMB 8,502 million, with free cash flow at RMB 7,619 million[2] - Cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB 47.83 billion as of June 30, 2024, slightly down from RMB 48.52 billion at the end of 2023[19] - The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 8,502 million, compared to RMB 10,164 million in the same period last year[95] Sustainability and Corporate Responsibility - The company aims to reduce absolute greenhouse gas emissions by 42.0% for Scope 1 and Scope 2 by 2030, using 2022 as the base year, and aims for a 51.6% reduction in Scope 3 emissions per dollar added value[39] - Over 140 suppliers have been encouraged to use clean and renewable energy, and a carbon inventory data management system has been established to support suppliers in collecting carbon emissions and energy usage data[39] - The company has trained over 6,800 sports teachers and built 185 Anta Dream Centers, benefiting over 7.2 million young people through its public welfare initiatives[40] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The consumer market is showing a polarization trend, with high-income groups favoring high-quality and personalized products, while price-sensitive consumers lean towards high-value alternatives[25] - The shift in consumer demographics, particularly the growing influence of the post-90s and post-95 generations, is leading to increased demand for outdoor sports products, necessitating timely marketing adjustments[48] Risks and Challenges - The company faces significant risks related to technological advancements and product innovation, which could adversely affect its operations if it fails to adapt[46] - Intense competition in the domestic sports footwear and apparel industry is shifting from quantity and price to new technologies and high-value products, potentially impacting future revenue and profitability[49] - The company’s overseas operations are subject to foreign exchange risks, as fluctuations in currency values can affect the valuation of assets, liabilities, income, and expenses[50]

奇普·威尔逊看到了中国技术服装行业竞争升级的开篇。 文丨朱丽琨 编辑丨钱杨 黄俊杰 奇普·威尔逊（Chip Wilson）现身时穿着始祖鸟 T 恤、lululemon 短裤和萨洛蒙（Salomon）的鞋。如果是 其他人这么穿，倒很常规，它们都是时下火热的品牌。但对这个加拿大人来说，这么打扮恰如其分——他 是 lululemon 的创始人，虽然已离开，但依然直言不讳地表达意见，引发争议。不过，他如今正在学着少 说两句。他现在持有亚玛芬体育（Amer Sports）近 21% 的股份，始祖鸟、萨洛蒙正是它旗下的品牌。他 这次来中国主要为参加亚玛芬董事会会议。 最近，威尔逊开始积极更新一份 newsletter，"技术服装变革"。每一期写一个品牌，尤其是北美市场热门 品牌和新出现的品牌， 比如现在被视作 lululemon 最大对手的 Alo Yoga、聚焦健身举重服饰的 GymShark 以及女士泳装品牌 Left On Friday。 他 1998 年创立 lululemon ，开启了用技术提升服装性能的风潮，如今有不少新品牌参与到这场浪潮中。他 对于自己开启了这个浪潮深感自豪，也对 lululemon 这样的 ...