Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Anta Sports Group achieved double-digit revenue growth in the first half of the year, with healthy and controllable discount inventory levels [1][4] - In Q2 2025, Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit growth, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth, and other brands saw a remarkable 50-55% growth [2][4] - The management maintains its annual guidance for all brands despite the overall market pressure [4][5] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In Q2 2025, Anta's overall revenue growth was double digits, with FILA and other brands performing well. The main brand's low single-digit growth was impacted by channel adjustments [3][5] - The online discount levels were influenced by the extended 618 promotional period, and inventory levels remained healthy [3][5] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit revenue growth in Q2 2025, with a sell-through ratio of five months at the end of the quarter. The running shoe series performed exceptionally well [6][9] - FILA's revenue growth was in the mid-single digits, with strong performance in golf and tennis categories [9][14] - Other brands, particularly KOLON, saw revenue growth exceeding 70%, while Descente grew over 40% [10] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for Anta's net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 134.8 billion, 154.6 billion, and 170.0 billion respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of 13.0%, 14.7%, and 10.0% [4][15] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 113-118 HKD, corresponding to a 2025 PE of 22-23X [4][15]

Core Viewpoint - The sportswear industry in Hong Kong is facing significant challenges in the second quarter of 2025, with major domestic brands experiencing a slowdown in growth due to weak consumer demand, inventory pressure, and intense price competition [2][10]. Group 1: Performance of Major Brands - Anta, Li Ning, 361 Degrees, and Xtep have all reported weakened performance in Q2 compared to Q1, with Anta and Xtep experiencing low single-digit growth [3][5]. - Anta's retail sales for its main brand showed low single-digit positive growth, while its FILA brand recorded mid-single-digit growth, both of which are slower than the high single-digit growth seen in Q1 [3][4]. - Li Ning's retail sales saw a decline in offline channels, with overall sales growth falling below expectations, indicating a challenging recovery trend [5][9]. Group 2: Market Environment - The overall consumer environment for the sportswear industry is under pressure, with a decline in transaction rates and average spending per customer, attributed to weakened consumer purchasing intent [6][7]. - In June 2025, the retail sales growth for clothing, shoes, and textiles was only 1.9%, a significant drop from previous months, highlighting the industry's struggles [8][7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition among domestic sports brands is intensifying, with international brands like Nike and Adidas increasing promotional efforts, leading to deeper discounting strategies among local brands [9][10]. - The industry is shifting focus towards outdoor segments, with brands like Anta and Li Ning making strides in high-end outdoor products, which offer higher profit margins compared to traditional sportswear [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the sales momentum for major sportswear companies will remain weak until at least Q2 to Q3 of 2025, primarily due to sluggish sales in lower-tier cities and increased competition [8][9]. - Despite the challenges, there are opportunities in niche outdoor markets, which are becoming a new growth area for brands looking to enhance product value [11].

智通财经APP获悉，港股今日冲高回落，三大指数午后集体转跌。截止收盘，恒生指数跌0.29%或72.36 点，报24517.76点，全日成交额为2589.51亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.18%，报8861.39点；恒生科技指数 跌0.24%，报5418.4点。 申万宏源表示，持续看好港股以及A股市场的投资机会，在未来全球金融秩序重构的过程中，中国香港 将扮演重要角色，港股优质资产繁荣度预计不断提升，成为本土在岸资金+全球新秩序下的核心资本市 场。 蓝筹股表现 安踏体育(02020)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨2.28%，报91.85港元，成交额13.2亿港元，贡献恒指4.55点。 安踏体育公布，2025年二季度，安踏品牌、FILA品牌流水分别同比增长低单位数、中单位数，所有其 他品牌流水同比增长50-55%。上半年， 安踏、FILA、其他品牌零售金额同比分别取得中单位数、高单 位数、60-65%的正增长。 其他蓝筹股方面，快手-W(01024)涨2.13%，报69.6港元，贡献恒指6.9点；携程集团-S(09961 )涨1.59%， 报498.2港元，贡献恒指3.36点；申洲国际(02313)跌2.75%，报56.6港 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with a focus on further developing its outdoor brand portfolio and maintaining a multi-brand, global strategy [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10.9% in 2025, 9.5% in 2026, and 8.7% in 2027, reaching revenues of 785.3 billion, 860.1 billion, and 934.5 billion respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 15.8% in 2025, followed by growth of 11.6% in 2026 and 10.3% in 2027, amounting to 131.3 billion, 146.6 billion, and 161.6 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, while FILA brand revenue grew in the mid-single digits. Other brands saw significant growth, with retail revenue increasing by 50-55% [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its franchise store operations and enhanced its e-commerce structure to improve efficiency [1]. Brand Analysis - FILA's performance was stable, with notable growth in children's and trendy lines after adjustments made in 2024. The brand is expanding into professional sports and outdoor products [2]. - Other brands like Descente and Kolon Sports reported over 40% and 70% revenue growth respectively, indicating strong performance in the women's sports segment [2]. Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for $290 million is expected to enhance the company's outdoor market presence and support international expansion [2]. Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates a revenue increase from 62.36 billion in 2023 to 78.53 billion in 2025, with a projected net profit of 13.13 billion in 2025 [4][3]. - The report outlines a decrease in net profit margin from 34.86% in 2024 to 17.53% in 2025, reflecting anticipated challenges [4]. Market Data - The company's stock closed at HKD 89.80, with a 12-month price range of HKD 65.90 to HKD 106.30, and a market capitalization of HKD 252.09 billion [5].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.28%, gaining 68 points to close at 24,658 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.61% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a trading volume of HKD 157.9 billion in the morning session [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration of China added innovative commercial insurance drugs to the list for 2025, supporting new drugs with high clinical value but payment bottlenecks, leading to a rise in the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index [1] Group 2 - Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513) surged by 12.69% as the Phase II clinical trial for its cardiovascular innovative drug H001 capsule completed patient enrollment [2] - InnoCare Pharma (02577) increased by 6.41%, planning to significantly enhance its 8-inch gallium nitride wafer production capacity over the next five years [2] - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) rose by 3.83% following reports of a meeting held by relevant authorities to ensure the supply and stabilize prices of potash fertilizer [2] Group 3 - Chongqing Machinery and Electric (02722) saw a significant increase of over 17% due to catalysts in the domestic AIDC market, with Chongqing Cummins being a supplier for engines [2] Group 4 - Jifang Zhitu Holdings (09636) rose by 10.18% after announcing a proposed share placement to raise approximately HKD 746 million for developing on-chain financial resources [3] Group 5 - Smoore International (06969) fell by 3.55%, expecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 21% to 35% in half-year profits [4] - Kanglong Chemical (03759) issued a profit warning, dropping by 5.24%, with an expected year-on-year decline of 36% to 39% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half [5]

安踏体育（02020.HK） 25Q2 流水点评：安踏品牌推进渠道升级，户 外品牌引领增长 买入（维持） 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 62,356 | 70,826 | 78,173 | 86,079 | 94,239 | | 同比(%) | 16.23 | 13.58 | 10.37 | 10.11 | 9.48 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,236 | 15,596 | 13,232 | 14,763 | 16,431 | | 同比(%) | 34.86 | 52.36 | (15.16) | 11.57 | 11.30 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.65 | 5.56 | 4.71 | 5.26 | 5.85 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22.41 | 14.71 | 17.34 | 15.54 | 13.96 | [T ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Anta Sports (02020) maintains its EPS forecast for 2025/26 at 4.81/5.42 HKD, with a current stock price corresponding to 17/15 times the 2025/26 P/E ratio, and a target price of 120.92 HKD, indicating a 35% upside potential from the current price [1] - Anta and FILA brands achieved low single-digit and mid single-digit revenue growth respectively in Q2 2025, while all other brands saw revenue growth of 50-55% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to achieve high single-digit and mid single-digit revenue growth targets for Anta and FILA brands in 2025, supported by adjustments in offline stores and online channel management, as well as a low base effect [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the mid-to-high-end outdoor segment continues to show strong growth, with Anta brand achieving low single-digit revenue growth in Q2 2025, and FILA brand achieving mid single-digit revenue growth [2] - FILA's performance remains stable, with new categories like golf and tennis becoming growth highlights, and the company strategically increasing discount rates online to accelerate inventory turnover and drive revenue growth [2] - Other brands such as DESCENTE and KOLON experienced revenue growth of over 40% and 70% respectively, while the new brand Maia Active achieved over 30% year-on-year growth, indicating a strong expansion of new store types [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [5][7] Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrated strong sales growth in Q2 2025, with a notable performance across its multi-brand portfolio, achieving overall sales growth in the first half of 2025 [1][4] - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 11% for 2025, with a net profit growth of 13% compared to 2024, excluding one-time gains [4] Summary by Sections Anta Brand - In Q2 2025, Anta brand sales grew by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, a slowdown compared to the high single-digit growth in Q1 2025. This is attributed to store optimization efforts and cautious discounting during the "618 Shopping Festival" [2] - The inventory turnover ratio for Anta brand is expected to remain around 5, indicating a healthy operational level [2] - For H2 2025, sales growth is expected to accelerate as the brand continues to optimize product structure and channel efficiency [2] Fila Brand - Fila brand achieved a mid-single-digit year-on-year sales growth in Q2 2025, with strong performance expected in its core products and e-commerce channels [3] - The brand's inventory turnover ratio is also projected to maintain around 5, with stable discounts in physical stores [3] - For H2 2025, Fila is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, supported by an expanded product range [3] Other Brands - Other brands within the Anta portfolio saw a remarkable sales growth of 50% to 55% in Q2 2025, driven by improved product offerings and store operations [4] - The acquisition of Maia Active in 2023 is expected to contribute positively to growth, alongside the recent acquisition of outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin [4] - Overall, the company is projected to maintain robust revenue growth in 2025, particularly in its outdoor brands [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for Anta Sports to be 135.12 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 17 times [5][6] - Revenue is expected to grow from 62.36 billion yuan in 2023 to 78.70 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [6][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ANTA Sports is maintained at OUTPERFORM with a target price of HK$109.40, representing a potential upside of 21.8% from the current price of HK$89.80 [2][8]. Core Insights - In 2Q25, the retail revenue of ANTA Sports' brands met market expectations, with the company maintaining its annual revenue guidance. The ANTA brand achieved low single-digit positive growth year-on-year, while FILA brand saw medium single-digit growth [3][13]. - The company is optimistic about achieving high single-digit growth for the full year, supported by the implementation of the offline lighthouse plan and optimization of e-commerce management [3][16]. - The performance of other brands, such as Descente and Kolon, showed significant growth, with retail revenue increasing by 50-55% year-on-year [5][15]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - ANTA brand's retail revenue showed low single-digit growth, with offline adult and children's sales increasing by low single digits, while online sales grew by medium single digits. The growth was lower than expected due to intensified competition and channel upgrades [3][13]. - FILA brand's retail revenue achieved medium single-digit growth, with strong performance in categories like golf and tennis [3][14]. New Business Development - ANTA's new business model has improved store efficiency, with champion stores showing 70-80% higher efficiency than traditional stores. The company is also focusing on younger consumers through smaller, more efficient store formats [4][14]. - The online team has been integrated to enhance e-commerce performance, with expectations of recovery in the second half of the year [4][16]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for ANTA Sports are set at RMB 79.17 billion, RMB 88.06 billion, and RMB 97.66 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.8%, 11.2%, and 10.9% [8][16]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is RMB 13.56 billion, RMB 15.53 billion, and RMB 17.66 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.9X, 14.8X, and 13.0X [8][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" [6] Core Views - Anta Sports reported a short-term adjustment in its main brand, with FILA meeting expectations and other brands performing strongly [1] - The main brand's revenue in Q2 showed a low single-digit year-on-year growth, while H1 revenue grew in the mid-single digits [1] - FILA's Q2 revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with H1 revenue increasing in the high single digits, aligning with expectations [2] - Other brands, including Descente and Maia Active, exhibited significant growth, with Descente's revenue increasing over 40% and Maia Active's over 30% [3] - The acquisition of the German outdoor brand Wolfskin for approximately 2.9 billion USD (about 21.2 billion RMB) is expected to enhance Anta's outdoor segment and market presence in Europe [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to grow by 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively, with net profit expected to be 134 billion RMB, 148 billion RMB, and 161 billion RMB [5] Summary by Sections Main Brand Performance - Q2 revenue for the main brand grew in low single digits year-on-year, with H1 showing mid-single-digit growth; children's products performed slightly better than bulk products [1] - The company is implementing a store efficiency improvement plan for offline franchises and has appointed a new e-commerce head to enhance product strategy [1] FILA Brand Performance - FILA's Q2 revenue increased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with strong performance in bulk and kids' categories [2] Other Brands Performance - Descente's revenue grew over 40%, KOLON over 70%, and Maia Active over 30%, with continued improvements in store efficiency and product line expansion [3] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Wolfskin is expected to strengthen Anta's position in the mid-range outdoor market and enhance its international presence [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 796 billion RMB, 868 billion RMB, and 937 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 134 billion RMB, 148 billion RMB, and 161 billion RMB [5]