Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high-quality growth across multiple brands in 2025, with a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to uncertainties in the consumption environment [4]. - Retail sales for all brands improved sequentially in Q4 2024, with FILA, Descente, and KOLON exceeding expectations [4][3]. - The company is focusing on differentiated store formats and expanding overseas, which is anticipated to drive growth [4][3]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - In Q4 2024, retail sales for Anta brand, FILA, and other brands saw year-on-year growth in high single digits to 50-55% [1][2]. - Anta brand maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio of around 5 months, with retail discounts at approximately 72% [1]. - FILA brand's retail sales performance exceeded expectations, with discounts stable at 74-75% and a similar inventory turnover ratio [2]. Multi-Brand Strategy - The company is leveraging a multi-brand strategy, with Anta's offline stores evolving towards more refined service offerings for different consumer segments [3]. - The launch of popular products, such as the PG7 running shoes and Storm甲 jackets, has contributed to strong sales [3]. - Descente and KOLON brands achieved significant sales growth, with respective year-on-year increases of 45-50% and 60-65% in Q4 2024 [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with net profit estimates reduced by 2%/4%/4% respectively [4]. - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 4.78, 4.85, and 5.42 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 14, and 13 [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 69.39 billion RMB in 2024 to 76.38 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.1% [5][13].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 01 08 年 月 日 Fila 品牌：Q4 流水表现超预期，库存健康，折扣稳定。1）Q4 终端流水增速转 正，表现优异。2024Q4 Fila 品牌流水同比增长高单位数，对比 Q3 的低单位数下 降，改善明显，我们预计 Fila 大货增速同品牌整体保持一致，Fila 儿童和潮牌调 整顺利，其中潮牌增速预计在高双位数；从渠道层面来看，Fila 电商业务仍保持 双位数的优异增长态势。2）渠道库销比在 5 左右，折扣压力较小。我们预计截 至 2024Q4 末 Fila 品牌库销比在 5 左右，保持在健康合理水平，同时受益于流水 的稳健增长和健康的库存水平，我们预计 Q4 品牌折扣压力相对较小。我们判断 当前 Fila 整体处于健康运营阶段，产品力和渠道力仍在不断提升，中长期随着消 费环境的逐步向好，Fila 仍有机会实现高质量的增长表现。 其他品牌：流水高速增长，长期增长动能充足。2024Q4 其他品牌（包括迪桑特 和 Kolon Sport）流水同比增速为 50%~55%，2024 年在波动的消费环境下，迪 桑特和 Kolon Sport 仍实现了 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Anta Sports experienced a slight miss in revenue expectations due to unfavorable conditions in Q3, but there are expectations for sales improvement in Q4 [1][3] - The company is recognized as a leading multi-brand sportswear player in China, with ongoing improvements in store operations, product positioning, and brand strategy [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2022 was 53.651 billion RMB, with projections of 62.356 billion RMB for 2023, 68.637 billion RMB for 2024, 75.773 billion RMB for 2025, and 83.703 billion RMB for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 8.76%, 16.23%, 10.07%, 10.40%, and 10.47% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.590 billion RMB in 2022, expected to rise to 10.236 billion RMB in 2023, 13.473 billion RMB in 2024, 13.482 billion RMB in 2025, and 15.189 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of -1.68%, 34.86%, 31.62%, 0.07%, and 12.67% respectively [2] Brand Performance - Anta brand retail revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q3 2024, with both adult and children's segments showing similar growth [3] - FILA brand revenue declined in the low single digits year-on-year in Q3 2024, with expectations for better performance in bulk orders compared to children's and trendy brands [3] - Other brands saw a significant revenue increase of 45-50% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with Descente and KOLON growing by 35-40% and 65-70% respectively [3] Operational Insights - Anta brand maintained a healthy inventory turnover ratio of less than five months, with discounts remaining stable [3] - The company has adapted to the challenging consumer environment by innovating in channels and products, such as launching new store formats and cost-effective running shoes [3] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 13.472 billion RMB, 13.482 billion RMB, and 15.189 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 14, and 13 [3][12] - Key financial ratios for 2024E include an EPS of 4.76 RMB, ROE of 20.72%, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 27.71% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrates resilience during the downturn, with expectations for a bottoming out in sales during the National Day holiday period, which exceeded expectations [2] - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates across its various brands, with a notable performance from the main brand and a healthy inventory level [2][3] - The report anticipates that e-commerce sales will outperform offline sales, continuing a trend of over 20% growth [2] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 53,651 million - 2023A: 62,356 million (growth rate: 16%) - 2024E: 70,710 million (growth rate: 13%) - 2025E: 79,308 million (growth rate: 12%) - 2026E: 88,319 million (growth rate: 11%) [2][3] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 7,590 million - 2023A: 10,236 million (growth rate: 35%) - 2024E: 13,530 million (growth rate: 32%) - 2025E: 14,166 million (growth rate: 5%) - 2026E: 15,974 million (growth rate: 13%) [2][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 2.68 - 2023A: 3.62 - 2024E: 4.78 - 2025E: 5.01 - 2026E: 5.65 [2][3] - **Cash Flow**: - 2023A: 6.94 - 2024E: 3.75 - 2025E: 4.67 - 2026E: 5.91 [2][3] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 24% - 2024E: 23% - 2025E: 20% - 2026E: 18% [2][3] Market Position and Strategy - Anta Sports is focusing on multi-brand operations to cover segmented users and enhance domestic product capabilities, capitalizing on emerging sports trends [2] - The company is expected to continue improving its channel reform and customer targeting strategies, particularly through the Super Anta and Champion stores [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining stable discount levels and improving online sales channels [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - Anta Sports reported its Q3 2024 revenue performance, showing a year-on-year growth in Anta's revenue, while FILA experienced a decline. Other brands saw a growth of 45%-50%, but overall performance was slightly below expectations for both Anta and FILA [4]. - The online growth for Anta is stronger, with expectations that e-commerce will outperform offline sales. The core areas and new store formats are performing well, while street shops are relatively weak. The Olympic Games in August are expected to boost retail performance, although September may see a slowdown due to the Mid-Autumn Festival timing [4]. - FILA's short-term revenue is under pressure, particularly in the kids and fusion segments, which require adjustments. Despite a decline in various categories due to consumer downgrading, golf and tennis categories are expected to perform relatively well [4]. - Inventory levels are healthy, with Anta's inventory turnover expected to be around 4-5 months and FILA's close to 5 months. This positions the company well for Q4 [4]. - Looking ahead, Anta plans to open and renovate 300 stores during the National Day period, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth. Despite uncertainties in FILA's retail performance, effective cost control and discount management are anticipated to support stable annual growth [4]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for Anta Sports is as follows: - 2023: 62,356 million - 2024E: 69,475 million (growth of 11.42%) - 2025E: 76,064 million (growth of 9.48%) - 2026E: 82,770 million (growth of 8.82%) [7]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is: - 2023: 10,236 million - 2024E: 13,319 million (growth of 30.12%) - 2025E: 13,638 million (growth of 2.39%) - 2026E: 15,070 million (growth of 10.50%) [7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2024: 4.71 - 2025: 4.82 - 2026: 5.33 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 118, based on a 25x PE for 2024 [1][3]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand achieved mid-single-digit growth in Q3 2024, with e-commerce continuing to show over 25% growth. The inventory remains healthy with a sell-through ratio below 5 [1]. - FILA experienced a low single-digit decline in Q3 2024, impacted by market saturation and weak demand, but is expected to stabilize in Q4 due to the e-commerce peak season [1]. - Other brands, particularly in outdoor sports, showed strong performance with growth rates of 45-50%, including significant increases for specific brands like Disante and Kolon [1]. - The overall performance in Q4 is anticipated to improve due to favorable consumption policies and the upcoming Double Eleven sales event [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62,356 million in 2023 to RMB 86,578 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.9% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring items) is expected to rise from RMB 10,236 million in 2023 to RMB 15,349 million in 2026, with a growth rate of 36.8% in 2023 [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from RMB 3.69 in 2023 to RMB 5.53 in 2026 [2][6]. Market Position - Anta Sports is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese sportswear industry, expected to benefit from industry growth and consumer trends [1][3]. - The company has a diversified brand portfolio, with strategies tailored to different consumer segments, enhancing its market reach [1]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholder is Anta International Group Holdings Limited, holding 42.45% of the shares, followed by The DSZ Family Trust and others [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.54 for 2023, decreasing to 15.04 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2][9]. - The projected dividend yield is expected to increase from 2.20% in 2023 to 2.61% in 2026 [2]. Operational Efficiency - The gross margin is expected to improve from 62.6% in 2023 to 63.3% in 2026, indicating better cost management and pricing power [2][9]. - Inventory turnover days are projected to stabilize around 123 days, reflecting efficient inventory management practices [9]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to fluctuate, with a significant drop anticipated in 2024, followed by recovery in subsequent years [8]. - The cash balance is projected to increase from RMB 15,228 million in 2023 to RMB 24,833 million by 2026, indicating a strengthening liquidity position [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HK$108.40, representing a 4% increase from the previous target price of HK$104.20 [1]. Core Views - Anta Sports' performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, particularly for the FILA brand, while Descente and KOLON continued to show strong growth [1]. - The company is expected to achieve its annual guidance, with a projected revenue growth of 12.4% year-on-year for 2024 [1]. - The report highlights challenges for FILA in meeting its annual targets, with anticipated revenue growth between 4.6% and 5.2% for the year [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 70,096 million, with a slight downward adjustment of 0.9% from previous estimates [2]. - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at 63.2% across the forecast period [2]. - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 14,122 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.5% from earlier projections [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 4.99, down 1% from previous estimates [1][2]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HK$91.40, with an upside potential of 19% to the target price [1]. - The market capitalization of Anta Sports is approximately US$33.273 billion [1]. - The report indicates that the company's stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 16.7 for 2024, which is competitive compared to peers [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The company's main brand shows steady growth, while FILA experiences a slight decline, with other brands accelerating their performance. The main brand is expected to grow in the low single digits year-on-year, while FILA has seen its first quarterly year-on-year decline since Q4 2022 [4] - The company has opened over 300 new stores during the National Day holiday, enhancing its market coverage and targeting specific consumer segments with diverse store formats [4] - A share repurchase plan of up to HKD 10 billion is expected to enhance shareholder returns and stabilize the stock price [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 13.765 billion and HKD 13.993 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) valuation range of 18-20X for 2024 [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 62.356 billion in 2023 to HKD 83.923 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from HKD 10.236 billion in 2023 to HKD 14.696 billion in 2026, with a significant year-on-year growth of 34.9% in 2024 [5] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 62.7% from 2024 onwards [5] Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 25.29 for 2023, decreasing to 17.60 by 2026 [8] - The projected price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 5.03 in 2023 to 3.57 in 2026 [8] - The expected dividend yield is projected to increase from 2.2% in 2023 to 3.1% in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating and raise target price to HK$ 126.68, based on 23x FY25E P/E, revised up from 20x [3][5][11] Core Views - Despite a disappointing 3Q24 performance, the outlook for 4Q24E is positive due to strong retail sales growth during the National Day holidays and government stimulus measures [3] - The company has not revised down its FY24E sales growth guidance, but a more conservative estimate is adopted [3] - Confidence in net profit margin remains high, supported by effective cost control and a resilient gross profit margin [3][6] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - FY24E revenue forecast is RMB 69,483 million, with a slight downward revision of -1.2% from previous estimates [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for FY24E is revised up by 4.8% to RMB 12,886 million [7] - Diluted EPS for FY24E is projected at RMB 4.601, reflecting a 4.8% increase from previous estimates [7] Sales Growth Expectations - Retail sales growth for Anta and FILA is expected to turn around in 4Q24E, with estimates of 16% and 10% respectively [3] - The company anticipates high single-digit to mid-single-digit retail sales growth for Anta and FILA in FY24E, compared to the company's guidance of over 10% [3] Market Position and Brand Performance - Anta's brand reforms are yielding positive results, with successful product launches and an expanded customer base through various store formats [3] - FILA is also expected to benefit from store revamps and new product series, although its recent performance has been weaker [3] Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 18x FY25E P/E, which is considered not demanding compared to its 5-year average of 25x [3] - The target price reflects a potential upside of 26.6% from the current price of HK$ 100.10 [5]