Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's sales performance exceeded expectations, with Anta brand achieving high single-digit growth in Q4 2024 and FILA brand showing significant improvement from the previous quarter [7] - The company's multi-brand strategy is robust, with Anta's main brand growing steadily and FILA focusing on high-end fashion, while new outdoor brands continue to show strong momentum [7] - The company's share buyback program is progressing rapidly, with 16.06 million shares repurchased between December 20, 2024, and January 9, 2025, demonstrating confidence in long-term development [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for FY2022 was RMB 536.5 billion, increasing to RMB 623.6 billion in FY2023, with projected revenues of RMB 686.0 billion, RMB 743.5 billion, and RMB 808.6 billion for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 75.9 billion in FY2022, rising to RMB 102.4 billion in FY2023, with forecasts of RMB 134.1 billion, RMB 135.7 billion, and RMB 150.7 billion for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] - Gross margin improved from 60.2% in FY2022 to 62.6% in FY2023, with further increases expected to 63.3%, 64.0%, and 64.6% in FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] Brand Performance - Anta brand achieved high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with children's business growing at low double-digit rates [7] - FILA brand saw high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with children's business turning from negative growth in Q3 to mid-single-digit growth [7] - New outdoor brands, including Kolon Sport and DESCENTE, showed strong performance with Q4 2024 growth rates of 60-65% and 45-50% respectively [7] Channel Performance - Online sales outperformed offline, with Anta's e-commerce growing at high double-digit rates in Q4 2024 [7] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, the company's e-commerce GMV reached RMB 11.1 billion, securing the top position in the industry without excessive discounting [7] - Offline channels continued to innovate, with the introduction of high-value-for-money Super Anta stores capturing price-sensitive consumers effectively [7] Inventory and Discounts - Inventory levels remained healthy, with Anta and FILA's inventory-to-sales ratio at around 5x [7] - Discount levels improved steadily, with Anta's online discounts improving by 1 percentage point year-on-year in Q4 2024, while offline discounts remained stable at around 7.2% [7] International Expansion - The company is steadily advancing its overseas expansion, focusing on Southeast Asia and the Middle East, while also planning to open a direct retail store in Los Angeles and launch cross-border e-commerce in 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 109.62, based on a 21x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Core Views - FILA showed significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2024, while other brands maintained high growth [1] - Anta Sports is expected to achieve industry-leading growth due to its strong multi-brand operational capabilities, despite macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Russia, and the US, with the appointment of a new international business head [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 53,651 million in 2022 to RMB 85,439 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.7% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 7,590 million in 2022 to RMB 15,925 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.6% [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 2.69 in 2022 to RMB 5.64 in 2026 [5] Brand Performance - Anta brand: Q4 2024 sales grew by high single digits year-on-year, with faster growth in children's categories and e-commerce channels [5] - FILA: Q4 2024 sales grew by high single digits year-on-year, showing resilience in the fashion sports segment [5] - Other brands: Q4 2024 sales grew by 50-55% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from Descente and Kolon [5] Valuation and Market Comparison - Anta Sports' 2025E PE ratio is 15.1x, lower than peers like Lululemon (26x) and Nike (27x) [7] - The company's 2025E PB ratio is 2.7x, compared to Lululemon's 26x and Nike's 27x [7] Strategic Initiatives - Anta Sports is advancing channel reforms, including the construction of "Super Anta" channels and optimizing store models [5] - The company is focusing on product innovation to align with current consumer trends [5]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [2] Core Views - Q4 saw a sequential acceleration in sales across all brands, with FILA performing better than expected [1] - ANTA brand's e-commerce performance was strong, and FILA exceeded expectations [6] - The company maintains a single-focus, multi-brand, and global strategy, with ANTA strengthening product power and innovating channels, while FILA continues high-quality growth by enhancing vertical competitiveness and optimizing channels [6] - Other brands are expected to continue high growth by penetrating new markets [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 70,100 million RMB, with a YoY growth of 12.4% [10] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be 13,588 million RMB, with a YoY growth of 32.7% [10] - Gross margin for 2024E is forecasted at 63.0%, with a net margin of 19.4% [10] - ROE for 2024E is estimated at 24.3%, with an EPS of 4.8 RMB [10] - P/E ratio for 2024E is 15.0x, and P/B ratio is 3.6x [10] ANTA Brand Performance - Q4 sales for ANTA brand grew at a high single-digit rate, with adult/children offline sales growing at high single-digit/low double-digit rates, and e-commerce sales growing by approximately 20% [6] - Full-year sales growth was high single-digit, with children's sales exceeding 10 billion RMB [6] - Inventory-to-sales ratio was around 5, with offline discounts stable and online discounts improving [6] - Channel innovations, such as ANTA Champion and ANTA Shoe Collection, are expected to drive continued growth [6] FILA Brand Performance - Q4 sales for FILA were slightly negative, but full-year sales grew at a mid-single-digit rate [7] - Mainline sales grew at a high single-digit rate, while children's and trendy lines adjusted effectively, with children's sales growing at a mid-single-digit rate and trendy lines growing at a high double-digit rate [7] - Inventory-to-sales ratio remained around 5, with discounts in good condition [7] Other Brands Performance - Q4 sales for other brands grew by 50-55%, with DESCENTE growing over 40% and KOLON growing 60-65% [8] - Full-year sales growth for other brands was 40-45%, with expectations of further growth driven by the Asian Winter Olympics in February 2025 [8] Related Research Reports - Previous reports highlighted FILA's Q3 sales fluctuations, ANTA's H1 core profit exceeding expectations, and Q2 retail performance meeting expectations despite market volatility [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a 6-month target price of HKD 103.8 [6][10] Core Views - Anta Sports' main brand achieved high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with children's products growing at low double digits and e-commerce growing nearly 20% [7] - FILA returned to growth in Q4 2024, with high single-digit growth in main products, mid single-digit growth in children's products, and high double-digit growth in Fusion products [7] - Other brands, including Descente and Kolon, grew 45-50% and 60-65% respectively in Q4 2024, maintaining a high growth rate [7] - Anta Sports' new store formats, such as ANTA SNEAKERVERSE and Super Anta, have been successful in targeting different consumer segments [8] - The company is expected to benefit from industry development as a leading player in China's sports goods industry [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 53.65 billion in 2022 to RMB 84.06 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.2% [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from RMB 7.59 billion in 2022 to RMB 15.07 billion in 2026 [9] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 60.2% in 2022 to 63.3% in 2026 [9] - EPS is expected to grow from RMB 2.82 in 2022 to RMB 5.43 in 2026 [9] - ROE is forecasted to remain stable at around 20% from 2023 to 2026 [15] Operational Highlights - Inventory turnover days improved from 138 days in 2022 to 122.8 days in 2023 and are expected to remain at 123 days from 2024 to 2026 [15] - Accounts receivable days decreased from 50.4 days in 2022 to 46.5 days in 2023 and are expected to stabilize at 50 days from 2024 to 2026 [15] - The company's capital structure is improving, with the debt-to-capital ratio decreasing from 45.3% in 2022 to a projected 31.3% in 2026 [15] Market Performance - The stock price was HKD 78.6 as of January 9, 2025, with a total market capitalization of HKD 221.9 billion [10] - The 12-month trading range was between HKD 74.2 and HKD 80.1 [10] - The stock showed a 14.61% absolute return over the past 12 months, despite a 4.24% relative underperformance [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 performance showed steady growth, with **Anta's main brand** and **FILA** recording high single-digit growth, while other brands surged by **50%-55%** YoY [1] - For the full year 2024, Anta's main brand grew by high single digits, FILA by mid-single digits, and other brands by **40%-45%** YoY, demonstrating resilience in a challenging consumer environment [1][4] - FILA's performance exceeded market expectations, with a rapid turnaround in Q4, indicating strong brand adjustment effectiveness [2] - The company's **multi-brand strategy** continues to drive growth, with **Descente** and **Kolon** expected to surpass **RMB 10 billion** in sales in 2024, solidifying their leadership in the professional sports and outdoor sectors [2] Business Analysis Anta Main Brand - The brand achieved high single-digit growth in Q4, driven by **multi-channel strategies** and effective discount management [2] - Anta Kids also saw low double-digit growth, supported by its online and offline coverage of children's sports communities [2] - Inventory and channel health remained strong, with optimized online discounts and healthy inventory-to-sales ratios [2] FILA - FILA's Q4 performance was better than expected, with high single-digit growth in its mainline products and significant improvement in its fashion and kids' segments [2] - The brand's inventory-to-sales ratio remained healthy, and discounts were stable YoY, reflecting strong product appeal [2] Other Brands - **Descente** and **Kolon** recorded **50%-55%** YoY growth in Q4, maintaining strong momentum despite a high base [2] - These brands are expected to continue capturing market share in the high-growth professional sports and outdoor sectors [2] Outlook for 2025 - The company expects **double-digit growth** for both Anta's main brand and FILA in 2025, driven by **new business models** and international expansion [3] - The **Super Anta stores**, which cater to the trend of consumption downgrading, are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [3] - The company is expanding its presence in **Southeast Asia**, the **Middle East**, and **Europe**, with retail stores already established in the US and Europe, and partnerships with cross-border e-commerce platforms [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company's **EPS** for 2024-2026 is projected at **RMB 4.70**, **RMB 4.89**, and **RMB 5.66**, respectively, with P/E ratios of **15x**, **14x**, and **12x** [4] - Revenue is expected to grow from **RMB 62.356 billion** in 2023 to **RMB 83.904 billion** in 2026, with a **10.08%** YoY growth rate in 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from **RMB 10.236 billion** in 2023 to **RMB 15.967 billion** in 2026 [7] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with **82 Buy ratings** in the past six months and a consistent **1.00 score**, indicating strong market confidence in the company's prospects [11][12]

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - Anta Sports' Q4 2024 performance showed improvement across all brands, with FILA exceeding growth expectations [1] - The company's multi-brand strategy continues to drive growth, with other brands achieving over 40% year-on-year growth [8] - Anta Sports has repurchased 22.87 million shares, totaling 1.638 billion yuan as of January 9, 2025 [8] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024E revenue: 69.359 billion yuan, up 11.23% year-on-year [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company: 13.536 billion yuan, up 32.23% year-on-year [1] - 2026E revenue forecast: 84.865 billion yuan, with net profit of 15.367 billion yuan [1] Key Financial Ratios - 2024E P/E ratio: 14.92x [1] - 2024E ROE: 20.79% [9] - 2024E gross margin: 63.07% [9] Brand Performance Anta Brand - Q4 2024 sales growth: high single-digit year-on-year [8] - Full-year 2024 sales growth: close to double-digit [8] - Key drivers: new store formats and successful product launches (e.g., PG7 running shoes with over 1 million pairs sold) [8] FILA Brand - Q4 2024 sales growth: high single-digit year-on-year, exceeding expectations [8] - Full-year 2024 sales growth: mid-to-high single-digit [8] - Maintained brand leadership in sportswear fashion segment [8] Other Brands (Kolon Sport, Descente) - Q4 2024 sales growth: 60-65% for Kolon Sport, nearly 50% for Descente [8] - Full-year 2024 sales growth: 40-45%, exceeding targets [8] - Combined sales exceeded 10 billion yuan [8] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 78.60 [5] - Market capitalization: 221.905 billion HKD [5] - 52-week range: 60.20 - 107.50 HKD [5] Financial Forecasts Balance Sheet - 2024E total assets: 97.786 billion yuan [9] - 2024E cash and equivalents: 17.194 billion yuan [9] Income Statement - 2024E operating income: 69.359 billion yuan [9] - 2024E operating profit: 15.783 billion yuan [9] Cash Flow - 2024E operating cash flow: 11.861 billion yuan [9] - 2024E capital expenditure: 2 billion yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Anta Sports, with a target price of HKD 104.11 per share based on a 2024 PE valuation of 20X [9] Core Views - Anta Sports is positioned as a leading multi-brand sports group with competitive advantages in scarce quality multi-brand assets and a strong operational system [9] - The company's 24Q4 performance showed strong growth, with the main brand and FILA achieving high single-digit YoY growth, while other brands grew by 50-55% YoY [2][6] - Anta Sports is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 13.55 billion and RMB 13.7 billion in 2024 and 2025, respectively [9] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62.36 billion in 2023 to RMB 83.92 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.0%-10.7% [2] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 10.24 billion in 2023 to RMB 14.70 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 1.1%-32.4% [2] - Gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at 62.7% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Brand Performance - Main brand turnover grew by high single digits YoY in 24Q4, accelerating from Q1-Q3, driven by new store formats [2][6] - FILA's turnover grew by high single digits YoY in 24Q4, showing significant improvement from previous quarters [2][6] - Other brands grew by 50-55% YoY in 24Q4, continuing the acceleration trend since Q1 [2][6] Strategic Initiatives - Anta Sports optimized store layouts and enriched its product matrix, launching the PG7 running shoe priced at RMB 399, which offers strong value for money [7] - The company opened over 300 new stores during National Day, including Olympic-themed stores and specialized formats [7] - FILA upgraded its store image and introduced new store types, such as the "Shoe Creation Space" and "Hall of Kings" [7] Financial Management - Anta Sports redeemed EUR 1 billion in convertible bonds and issued EUR 1.5 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds, ensuring sufficient cash flow [8] - The company announced a HKD 10 billion share buyback plan, repurchasing 18.406 million shares at an average price of HKD 77.43, using HKD 1.43 billion [8] Industry Comparison - Anta Sports' PE ratio is projected to be 15.71X in 2024, lower than competitors like Nike (26.3X) and Lululemon (26.2X) [3] - The company's revenue growth is expected to outpace competitors, with a 10.0% YoY increase in 2024, compared to Nike's 7.4% and Adidas's 7.4% [3]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [6] Core Views - Anta Sports' main brands (Anta and FILA) showed steady growth, while other brands continued to experience high growth [1] - Anta brand achieved high single-digit growth in 2024, driven by online sales and new business formats [2] - FILA brand returned to high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with its trendy sub-brand achieving high double-digit growth [3] - Other brands grew 40%-45% in 2024, with Q4 growth accelerating to 50%-55%, driven by strong performance in winter sports brands [4] - Anta Sports' core competitive advantages remain significant, with long-term growth potential in brand elevation, retail operations, and outdoor sports segments [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by 11%/9%/8% in 2024/2025/2026 to RMB 695/757/820 billion [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 33%/-0.5%/+11% in 2024/2025/2026 to RMB 136/135/150 billion, excluding a one-time gain of RMB 15.8 billion from AmerSports' IPO [4] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 4.80/4.77/5.28 in 2024/2025/2026, with a P/E ratio of 14.5/14.5/13.1X [4][5] Brand Performance - Anta brand: Q4 2024 online sales grew nearly 20%, with overall high single-digit growth for the year [2] - FILA brand: Q4 2024 growth returned to high single digits, with trendy sub-brand achieving high double-digit growth [3] - Other brands: Descente grew 45%-50% and KOLON grew 60%-65% in Q4 2024 [4] Strategic Initiatives - Anta Sports is actively repurchasing shares, with over 21.55 million shares repurchased as of January 7, 2025 [5] - The company is focusing on brand elevation through product innovation, channel operations, and leveraging Olympic resources [5]

纺织服装 2025 年 01 月 09 日 安踏体育(2020.HK) 安踏品牌经营稳健，FILA品牌流水超预期 强烈推荐（维持） 股价：75.25 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.anta.com;ir.anta.com | | 大股东/持股 | 安踏国际集团控股有限公司/42.4% | | 实际控制人 | 丁世忠 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2823.22 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 2823.22 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 2124.48 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 20.23 | | 资产负债率(%) | 36.58 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】安踏体育（2020.HK）*半年报点评*中期 业绩再创历史新高*强烈推荐20240828 【平安证券】安踏体育（2020.HK）*季报点评*一季度 营运表现符合预期*强烈推荐20240418 证券分析师 王源 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524010001 WANGYUAN468@ping ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 安踏（2020.HK）：4Q24 流水好于市场 预期，2024 全年业绩确定性提升 1 月 8 日收市后，安踏公布了 4Q24 的运营数据，整体流水表现好于市 场预期。我们认为 Fila 4Q24 流水表现环比大幅改善有望缓解市场对 Fila 增速放缓的担忧，从而刺激股价短期回升。基于稳定的库销比以 及稳健的折扣水平，我们认为公司 2024 年全年的业绩已基本确定，且 基本符合我们之前的预测。尽管 2025 年依然充满挑战，但我们认为安 踏有望通过持续的门店升级以及产品的调整来实现品牌力的进一步提 升，从而录得高于同业的流水增长。维持安踏"买入"评级。 如何展望 2025 年？尽管中国运动服饰行业整体需求在 2025 年依然 面临压力，但安踏品牌依然是国产玩家中增长趋势最好的品牌之一。 这归功于公司管理层积极对线下门店进行改造和升级，同时对抖音等 新兴电商渠道进行布局，从而大幅提升了安踏的品牌力。Fila 短期增 速回暖（尤其是潮牌在 4Q24 的大幅反弹）令我们对 Fila 在 2025 年的 表现有更强的信心。Descente 及 Kolon 预计在 2025 年有望 ...