Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of HKD 119 8, implying a potential upside of 19 7% from the current price of HKD 100 1 [2][3] Core Views - Anta Sports' 3Q24 sales performance fell short of market expectations, with both Anta and Fila brands underperforming Anta brand sales grew by mid-single digits, while Fila sales declined by low-single digits [2] - Despite the weak 3Q24 performance, the company has not revised its full-year 2024 sales guidance, with management expressing confidence in achieving the targets due to strong sales during the National Day holiday [2] - The report highlights Anta's continued brand strength, driven by store upgrades and expansion into new e-commerce channels like Douyin, as well as its multi-brand strategy [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 69 369 million, representing an 11 2% YoY growth, while core net profit is forecasted at RMB 12 064 million, up 17 9% YoY [3][5] - Gross margin is expected to improve slightly to 62 8% in 2024E, with operating margin projected at 24 0% [5] - The report slightly revised down the 2024E revenue and profit forecasts due to a more conservative outlook for 4Q24 [2] Brand Performance - Anta brand's 3Q24 sales grew by mid-single digits, outperforming domestic competitors, while Fila's sales declined by low-single digits, with its core product line remaining flat [2] - Descente and Kolon maintained strong growth momentum in 3Q24, continuing their high growth rates from the first half of the year [2] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with Anta brand at 4-5x and Fila close to 5x, allowing stable retail discounts [2] Market and Industry Context - The report notes that Anta Sports remains one of the fastest-growing brands in China's sportswear industry, benefiting from its multi-brand strategy and strong brand positioning [2] - The company's performance during the National Day holiday was driven by its new offline store formats, such as Anta Champion stores and Super Anta, which capitalized on the surge in tourism and consumption [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 119 8 is based on a 22x 2025E P/E multiple, reflecting improved market sentiment and liquidity in Hong Kong, as well as expectations for further stimulus policies [2] - The report outlines three scenarios for Anta's stock price: optimistic (HKD 149 8), base case (HKD 119 8), and pessimistic (HKD 95 8), with probabilities of 25%, 55%, and 20%, respectively [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (02020) with a 6-month outlook [2] Core Views - Anta brand product sales grew by mid-single digits YoY in Q3 2024, while FILA brand sales declined by low single digits YoY [2] - All other brands under Anta Sports achieved 45-50% YoY growth in sales [2] - The company opened over 300 new stores during the National Day period, focusing on differentiated store formats [3] Business Strategy - Anta is implementing a differentiated store strategy to cater to diverse consumer needs, moving away from uniform store formats [3] - The company is strengthening its presence in high-end markets and core business districts through flagship stores like "Arena Level" and "Hall of Fame Level" [3] - Anta is targeting niche markets with specialized stores such as "Anta Champion" and "Anta Collection" [3] - For the mass market, Anta launched "Super Anta," a comprehensive sports retail concept offering customized products and unique shopping experiences [3] Store Formats - Anta introduced two distinct store formats: "White Label" and "Black Label" [4] - White Label stores focus on minimalist art and exclusive products, with plans for one flagship store per city [4] - Black Label stores emphasize technology and competitive sports atmosphere, with broader coverage and higher store count compared to White Label [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 70.1 billion in 2024, RMB 78.5 billion in 2025, and RMB 86.8 billion in 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at RMB 13.4 billion (including one-time gains) in 2024, RMB 13.2 billion in 2025, and RMB 14.6 billion in 2026 [7] - EPS is expected to be RMB 4.7/share in 2024 and 2025, increasing to RMB 5.2/share in 2026 [7] - The PE ratio is estimated at 15x for 2024 and 2025, and 14x for 2026 [7] Market Performance - Anta Sports' stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 29% decline at its lowest point and a 25% increase at its peak between October 2023 and June 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for Anta Sports [2][4]. Core Views - Q3 performance was impacted by external factors, with the main brand and FILA experiencing pressure on revenue, but discount inventory remains healthy. The sales performance during the National Day holiday was outstanding, and attention is drawn to future promotional sales [4]. - Due to the overall pressure on revenue in Q3, the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 13.6 billion, 13.9 billion, and 15.7 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 19, and 17 times [4]. - The report highlights that the main brand and FILA's revenue growth was below internal expectations, while other brands showed strong performance. The company is making steady progress in opening new store formats, reflecting strong market insight and operational capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 revenue growth for the main brand and FILA was in the low single digits, while other brands grew by 45-50%. The main brand's performance was slightly above industry standards, particularly in direct sales [4]. - The company plans to open 50 new stores by the end of the year, indicating a focus on innovative store formats [4]. National Day Sales - Sales during the National Day holiday were strong, with both customer traffic and sales conversion rates performing well. The inventory discount levels remained healthy, suggesting a positive outlook for Q4 sales [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenue growth rates of 10.8%, 11.3%, and 11.5% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 33.1%, 1.8%, and 13.1% for the same years [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [4][5] Core Views - The retail performance of Anta Sports shows brand differentiation, with the Anta brand achieving single-digit growth in Q3 2024, while FILA experienced a slight decline. Other brands saw a growth of 45-50%, driven by strong brand power and outdoor trends [4][5] - Online sales growth outpaced offline, with Anta's e-commerce continuing to grow over 20%. The company is preparing for the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival, aiming to outperform peers while balancing scale growth and profit margins [4][5] - Inventory levels remain healthy, with discount rates improving steadily. Anta's offline discount rates remained stable year-on-year, while online discounts improved. This indicates that retail growth is not solely reliant on discounting, reflecting high-quality sales growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta brand showed single-digit growth in Q3 2024, with both adult and children's segments performing well. FILA brand saw a low single-digit decline, while other brands grew by 45-50% [4][5] - The performance of Kolon Sport and DESCENTE brands remained strong, with growth rates of 65-70% and over 30%, respectively [4] Channel Analysis - Online sales growth was superior to offline, with Anta's e-commerce achieving over 20% growth. The company is innovating in offline store formats to capture price-sensitive consumers [4][5] Financial Outlook - The company expects a recovery in sales during the National Day holiday, with a focus on cost control to enhance profit visibility for the year. The sales target for the year relies on achieving higher growth in Q4 [5] - The projected net profit for 2024 is adjusted to 134.1 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates, with a PE ratio of 19 times [5][6]

隐证券 纺织服饰/服装家纺 公 司 研 究 安踏体育（02020.HK） 2024 年 10 月 11 日 Q3 FILA 流水波动，期待 Q4 电商旺季下流水表现 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/10/10 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 100.10 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 107.50/60.200 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 2,832.06 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 2,832.06 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 28.29 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 28.29 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 25.82 | 股价走势图 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 安踏体育 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024H1 核心利润超预期，百亿回购 提振信心 —港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.30 《Q2 零售波动下流水符合 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 117.98, up from the previous target of HKD 93.5 [2][7][11]. Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrated resilient operational performance in Q3 2024, with a steady revenue growth despite short-term disruptions caused by weather and macroeconomic factors. The Anta brand achieved a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales, while the Fila brand experienced a low single-digit decline [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the strong operational resilience of Anta as a market leader, maintaining its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 at RMB 4.27, 4.88, and 5.51 respectively. The target price is based on a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22.0x for 2025, reflecting the company's significant advantages in market share, revenue scale, and brand strength [2][11]. Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Performance - Anta brand retail sales showed a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, while Fila brand retail sales declined by a low single-digit percentage. Other brands, including Descente and Kolon, saw retail sales growth of 45-50% [2][4]. - The operational disruptions in Q3 were attributed to external factors such as typhoons and high temperatures, but Anta's performance remained industry-leading [2][3]. Brand Analysis - Anta's main brand is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with online sales projected to exceed 20% year-on-year growth for the full year 2024. The company is effectively expanding its market reach through new store formats targeting specific customer segments [3][4]. - Fila's performance has been impacted by external market conditions, but its operational health remains manageable, with retail discounts stable and inventory turnover ratios healthy [4][5]. Other Brands - Other brands under Anta are experiencing rapid growth, particularly in outdoor apparel, with Descente and Kolon showing significant year-on-year increases in sales [5][9]. - The report anticipates that the retail environment will remain challenging in the fourth quarter, but effective cost control and product-channel strategies will support overall performance and profitability [5][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are set at RMB 69.97 billion for 2024, with expected year-on-year growth of 12.21%. Net profit is projected to reach RMB 13.25 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 29.42% [6][9][10]. - The report outlines a consistent growth trend in EPS, with estimates of RMB 4.27 for 2024, RMB 4.88 for 2025, and RMB 5.51 for 2026, indicating strong profitability [10][15].

公司近一年市场表现 2024 年 10 月 11 日 公司研究/公司快报 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 安踏品牌零售流水同比增长中单位数，折扣与库存保持健康水平。2024Q3，安踏 品牌零售流水同比增长中单位数，流水增速较 2 季度有所减弱，预计零售流水达成率弱 于公司内部预期。分渠道看，预计线上渠道表现好于线下，2024Q3，安踏品牌线上渠道 流水预计同比增长 20%以上。分品类看，安踏大货、安踏儿童零售流水同比增长均为中 单位数。库存方面，截至 2024Q3 末，安踏品牌库渠道库存周转 4 个月以上，渠道库存 处于健康水平。零售折扣方面，安踏品牌整体零售折扣改善，其中线上零售折扣改善， 线下零售折扣持平。 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------------| | 市场数据： 2024 年 10 月 | 10 日 | | 收盘价（港元）： | 100.10 | | 年内最高/最低（港元）： | 107.50/60.200 | | 流通股/总股本（亿股）： | 28.29/28.29 | | 流通市值（亿港元）： | 2,832.06 | | ...

公司近一年市场表现 2024 年 10 月 11 日 公司研究/公司快报 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 安踏品牌零售流水同比增长中单位数，折扣与库存保持健康水平。2024Q3，安踏 品牌零售流水同比增长中单位数，流水增速较 2 季度有所减弱，预计零售流水达成率弱 于公司内部预期。分渠道看，预计线上渠道表现好于线下，2024Q3，安踏品牌线上渠道 流水预计同比增长 20%以上。分品类看，安踏大货、安踏儿童零售流水同比增长均为中 单位数。库存方面，截至 2024Q3 末，安踏品牌库渠道库存周转 4 个月以上，渠道库存 处于健康水平。零售折扣方面，安踏品牌整体零售折扣改善，其中线上零售折扣改善， 线下零售折扣持平。 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------------| | 市场数据： 2024 年 10 月 | 10 日 | | 收盘价（港元）： | 100.10 | | 年内最高/最低（港元）： | 107.50/60.200 | | 流通股/总股本（亿股）： | 28.29/28.29 | | 流通市值（亿港元）： | 2,832.06 | | ...

2024 年 10 月 11 日 公司研究 Q3 安踏及 FILA 流水走弱，Q4 冬装旺季期待多品牌销售提振 ——安踏体育（2020.HK）2024 年三季度经营情况点评 要点 24Q3 安踏和 FILA 品牌流水走弱，库存和折扣仍保持健康 安踏体育公告 2024 年三季度经营情况。分品牌来看，2024 年第三季度安踏品牌 零售流水同比增长中单位数、FILA 同比下滑低单位数、其他品牌同比增长 45~50%。三季度终端零售压力加大，安踏及 FILA 品牌零售流水低于预期，与二 季度相比，安踏增速环比略有放缓、FILA 转为下滑，而其他品牌增速有所加快。 安踏品牌：24Q3 安踏品牌库销比小于 5 个月、环比维持；零售折扣线下同比基 本持平，线上折扣同比改善。分产品及渠道来看，安踏大货、儿童流水同比均增 长中单位数；安踏线上延续高增长，流水同比增长超 20%。 FILA 品牌：FILA 品牌 24Q3 受大环境影响零售流水转为下滑，其零售折扣及库存 仍处于健康水平，零售折扣未有加深，库销比接近 5 个月。分产品及渠道来看， FILA 大货零售流水同比持平，潮牌和儿童流水压力相对较大。 其他品牌：24Q3 其他 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - In the challenging consumer environment, Anta demonstrates strong brand operational capabilities, with a positive outlook on annual performance certainty and long-term growth potential across multiple brands. Despite a noticeable industry downturn in the third quarter, Anta maintains good growth, while FILA experiences a slight decline but with healthy inventory and discount levels. Other sub-brands show rapid growth, highlighting the company's multi-brand operational strength. With the upcoming National Day Golden Week and peak consumption season, the company is expected to accelerate growth while maintaining healthy inventory and discount levels [2][7] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In Q3 2024, Anta's main brand recorded mid-single-digit positive growth, while FILA experienced low single-digit negative growth. Other brands saw a significant increase in sales of 45-50% [2][4] - Anta's sales growth continued with mid-single-digit increases, maintaining a healthy inventory turnover ratio of less than 5. Online retail discounts narrowed [4][6] - FILA's sales saw a slight decline, with an inventory turnover ratio of 5, and online discounts remained stable [4][6] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is estimated at 136.5 billion, 134.9 billion, and 148.2 billion yuan respectively. Adjusted net profits, excluding one-time gains from Amer Sports' listing, are approximately 120.7 billion, 134.9 billion, and 148.2 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.9%, 11.8%, and 9.9% [2][7][8] - The revenue forecast for 2024 is 69.507 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.5% [8][11] Valuation - The reasonable valuation range for Anta has been adjusted to 103-112 HKD, up from the previous range of 98-107 HKD, corresponding to an adjusted EPS of 22-24 times for 2024 [2][7]