Core Insights - The outdoor brand market in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by a shift towards outdoor lifestyles and social experiences, with the market expected to exceed 500 billion RMB by 2025 [2][5][11] - The outdoor sports market in China has transitioned from a niche segment to a mainstream cultural phenomenon, with increasing consumer demand for high-performance products that cater to various activities and settings [7][9][18] - The rise of social media has significantly boosted interest in outdoor activities, with specific segments like cycling and fishing projected to see explosive growth, with some areas expected to exceed 100% growth [11][13] Market Dynamics - The outdoor market in China is projected to surpass 150.4 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 23% growth rate, indicating a shift from rapid growth to a more refined market approach [5][20] - Over 20 international outdoor brands have entered the Chinese market in the past three years, alongside more than 10 local brands, leading to increased competition and market saturation [20][23] - Local brands are increasingly targeting the high-end market, with average product prices rising by 25%-65% among the top 30 local outdoor brands [24][25] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are shifting their focus from luxury brands to high-performance outdoor products, valuing functionality and experience over mere brand prestige [16][18] - The outdoor lifestyle is becoming a significant aspect of social interaction among urban professionals, with outdoor gear symbolizing health and community connection [18][29] - The demand for outdoor products is evolving, with consumers preferring comprehensive lifestyle solutions rather than individual items [9][16] Competitive Landscape - The outdoor market is becoming increasingly crowded, with both high-end and mid-range brands competing for market share, leading to potential product homogenization [20][23] - Brands are focusing on differentiation through localized services, scene adaptation, and supply chain efficiency to maintain a competitive edge [27][29] - The market is expected to continue to segment, with a focus on high-quality, stylish, and functional products that meet specific consumer needs [28][31]

Core Insights - The four major sports brands in Hong Kong, Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees, all achieved revenue growth in the first half of 2025, but profit performance varied significantly [1][8] - Increased discounting has become a common strategy among these companies, impacting profit growth and gross margins [1][8] - The industry is witnessing a trend towards "opening large stores" and professional upgrades [1][8] Revenue and Growth - Anta Sports led with a revenue of 38.54 billion yuan, growing at 14.26%, while Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees reported revenues of 14.82 billion yuan, 6.838 billion yuan, and 5.705 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.29%, 7.14%, and 10.96% respectively [2] - Over the past three years, except for Anta Sports, the other three brands have shown a decline in growth rates [2] - Anta Sports has maintained double-digit revenue growth for four consecutive years, but its main brands, Anta and FILA, have seen growth rates drop to single digits, with over 10% growth driven by outdoor brands like Descente and Kolon [2] Online Sales Performance - Online channels have become a common growth highlight for all four companies, although they have negatively impacted gross margins [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, online revenue growth rates for Anta Sports, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees were 17.6%, 7.4%, and 45% respectively [2] - The online revenue share for Anta Sports, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees stands at 34.8%, 29%, and 31.8% respectively, indicating the importance of online business [3] Gross Margin Analysis - Anta Sports' gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 63.37%, attributed to increased costs in professional categories and higher online discounts [3] - Li Ning's gross margin fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.04%, due to changes in channel structure and intensified promotional discounts [3] - 361 Degrees experienced a unique situation where its gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 41.5%, driven by a "price for volume" strategy [3] Net Profit Performance - The net profit performance among the four brands showed divergence, with Anta Sports and 361 Degrees facing slowing growth, while Li Ning experienced a decline [5] - Li Ning's net profit for the first half of 2025 was 1.737 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.99% year-on-year [5] - Anta Sports reported a net profit of 7.031 billion yuan, down 8.9%, but excluding the impact of Amer Sports' listing, the net profit grew by 14.5% [5] Industry Trends - The industry is characterized by a significant trend towards specialization and upgrading, particularly in the competitive running shoe market [6][7] - All four brands are focusing on original research and development to create and upgrade their flagship running shoe IPs [6] - The trend of "opening large stores" is evident, with flagship stores exceeding 1,000 square meters, offering a mix of sales, experience, and social interaction [7]

Core Viewpoint - This year marks a significant year for Anta with aggressive acquisition activities, including the purchase of JACK WOLFSKIN and investment in MUSINSA China, raising questions about its strategic focus on sports [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Strategy - Anta's CEO, Ding Shizhong, emphasized that acquisitions are the answer to three strategic questions posed by the market: the necessity of Anta, how to deepen its multi-brand differentiation strategy, and how to create shareholder value through optimal capital allocation [2][4]. - The company has pursued multiple acquisitions this year, including JACK WOLFSKIN and MUSINSA China, with rumors of potential acquisitions of Reebok, Puma, and Canada Goose, indicating a more aggressive approach compared to past strategies [4][7]. - Anta's acquisition of JACK WOLFSKIN for $290 million aims to strengthen its outdoor segment and leverage the brand's existing 451 stores primarily in Europe and Asia [10]. Group 2: Global Expansion Challenges - Anta faces significant challenges in its global expansion efforts, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it aims to achieve $1.5 billion in revenue by 2028, but has yet to make substantial progress [5][11]. - The company currently operates 249 overseas stores, which is only 2% of its total 13,000 stores, indicating a slow pace of international growth [12][19]. - Anta's overseas revenue contribution remains low, with estimates suggesting that its overseas stores generate only about $1 million in revenue each [13]. Group 3: Competitive Pressure - Anta's main brand is under pressure from Li Ning, which has secured a partnership with the Chinese sports delegation for the 2025-2028 period, raising concerns about Anta's competitive position [6][23]. - Despite Anta's overall revenue exceeding 100 billion RMB, the company lacks a standout brand, with its main brand generating 16.95 billion RMB and FILA at 14.18 billion RMB, showing no significant gap compared to Li Ning's 14.8 billion RMB [20][22]. - FILA, once a cash cow for Anta, has faced challenges, including negative growth in 2022 and being the only brand within Anta's portfolio to report a decline in the third quarter of 2024 [26][27].

Summary of Li Ning Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Ning (2331.HK) - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Cap**: US$6,323 million - **Current Price**: HK$19.70 - **Price Target**: HK$25.00, representing a 27% upside from the current price [7][20] Key Points Financial Performance and Guidance - **Sales Growth**: Li Ning's sales growth is influenced by China's macroeconomic environment, with conservative assumptions baked into forecasts [1][3] - **2025 Guidance**: The company maintains guidance for stable sales and high single-digit net profit margin (NPM) for 2025, targeting over 10% NPM in the long term [9][22] - **1H25 Performance**: Reported net profit (NP) decreased by 11% year-over-year, with a projected double-digit decline in reported NP for 2025 [3][22] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: GPM contracted by 0.4 percentage points to 50% in 1H25, with expectations of further contraction in 2H25 due to deeper discounts [3][20] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Market Share**: Li Ning holds a leading market share in basketball in China, with plans to launch new shoes at a lower price to expand its customer base [10][11] - **Product Categories**: Professional products contributed over 60% of total revenue in 1H25, with running products showing a CAGR of over 20% compared to the industry average of ~9% [10][11] - **Challenges**: Bears argue that Li Ning's slower growth compared to peers, single brand focus, and fierce competition hinder brand differentiation [2][3] Operational Strategy - **Cost Management**: The company has improved control over advertising and promotion (A&P), staffing, and leases, leading to a core operating profit (OP) beat in 1H25 [4][21] - **Organizational Changes**: Li Ning has established category business units to drive growth, although this may introduce inefficiencies in merchandising and marketing [11][12] Marketing and Brand Strategy - **Marketing Initiatives**: Li Ning's partnership with athletes, including a deal with COC and sponsorship of NBA player Hansen Yang, aims to enhance brand storytelling and restore brand momentum [5][10] - **Product Mix Improvement**: The company is focusing on enhancing its product mix, particularly in functional apparel, to better align with market demands [10][11] Financial Estimates and Valuation - **Earnings Estimates**: Adjusted NP estimates for 2025 are projected at Rmb3,345 million, reflecting a 17% increase from previous estimates [24][25] - **Valuation Metrics**: Li Ning is currently trading at 16-17x 2025 P/E, which is not considered cheap by some analysts [3][22] - **Impairment Losses**: Impairment from investment properties is expected to continue affecting NP through 2027, with a projected NPM of 9.4%, 10.2%, and 11.1% for 2025-2027 [22][24] Risks and Considerations - **Operational Expenses**: Operating expenses are expected to rise in 2H25 due to Olympic-related costs and higher labor costs from stock-based compensation [12][20] - **Tax Rate**: The tax rate increased to 33% in 1H25, influenced by higher withholding tax and non-cash charges, with expectations of a continued rise in 2025 [14][20] Conclusion - Li Ning is positioned for potential margin recovery and growth, supported by strategic marketing initiatives and improved operational efficiency. However, challenges from macroeconomic conditions and competitive pressures remain significant factors to monitor [1][4][22]

Core Insights - The financial reports for the first half of 2025 from China's four major sportswear companies, Anta, Li Ning, Xtep, and 361 Degrees, reveal significant disparities in performance, with Anta leading in revenue and Xtep showing the fastest profit growth [1][2]. Revenue Performance - Anta achieved a record revenue of 38.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, surpassing the combined revenue of Li Ning, Xtep, and 361 Degrees [2][3]. - Li Ning's revenue grew by 3.3% to 14.82 billion yuan, while Xtep reported a revenue of 6.84 billion yuan, up 7.1%. 361 Degrees saw an 11% increase in revenue to 5.705 billion yuan [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - Anta's net profit reached 7.031 billion yuan, nearly double that of the other three companies combined [3]. - Xtep's net profit grew by 21.5% to 910 million yuan, marking the highest growth rate among the four companies. 361 Degrees' net profit increased by 8.6% to 860 million yuan, while Li Ning's net profit fell by 11% to 1.737 billion yuan [3]. Strategic Focus and Business Lines - Anta continues to implement a "single focus, multi-brand, global" strategy, with its core brand revenue increasing by 5.4% to 16.95 billion yuan and FILA's revenue rising by 8.6% to 14.18 billion yuan [4][5]. - Li Ning is investing heavily in top-tier professional sports resources and increasing R&D spending by 8.7%, focusing on running, basketball, and training categories, which account for 67% of retail sales [5]. - Xtep is concentrating on the running segment, with its high-end running shoe brand Saucony achieving a 32.5% revenue increase to 785 million yuan, representing 11.5% of total revenue [5][6]. - 361 Degrees is pursuing a strategy of "professionalization, youthfulness, and internationalization," with its children's business and e-commerce showing rapid growth [6]. Operational Challenges - Anta's average inventory turnover days increased from 114 to 136 days, indicating rising inventory pressure. The overall gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 63.4% due to a higher contribution from lower-margin e-commerce and footwear products [8]. - Li Ning reported a net cash inflow of 2.41 billion yuan, with a cash cycle of 31 days, but faced challenges from reduced offline foot traffic impacting sales [9]. - Xtep's main brand revenue growth slowed to 4.5%, below the previous year's 6.6%, with Saucony not yet sufficiently supporting its "second growth curve" despite its high growth rate [10].

Core Viewpoint - The financial reports of China's four major sportswear companies—Anta, Li Ning, Xtep, and 361 Degrees—show significant disparities in performance, with Anta leading in revenue growth and Xtep achieving the fastest net profit growth [2][4][5]. Revenue Performance - Anta's revenue reached 38.54 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, marking a 14.3% year-on-year increase, setting a new historical high [4][6]. - Li Ning's revenue was 14.82 billion RMB, up 3.3% year-on-year, while Xtep reported 6.84 billion RMB, a 7.1% increase [4][6]. - 361 Degrees saw its revenue grow by 11% to 5.705 billion RMB [4][6]. Profitability Analysis - Anta's net profit was 7.031 billion RMB, nearly double that of the other three companies combined [5][6]. - Xtep's net profit grew by 21.5% to 910 million RMB, the highest growth rate among the four [5][6]. - 361 Degrees' net profit increased by 8.6% to 860 million RMB, while Li Ning's net profit fell by 11% to 1.737 billion RMB [5][6]. Strategic Focus and Business Lines - Anta's strategy emphasizes "single focus, multi-brand, and globalization," with its core brand revenue growing by 5.4% to 16.95 billion RMB [8][9]. - Li Ning is investing in top-tier professional sports resources and increasing R&D spending by 8.7%, focusing on running, basketball, and cross-training categories [8][9]. - Xtep is concentrating on the running segment, with its high-end running shoe brand Saucony seeing a revenue increase of 32.5% [10]. - 361 Degrees is pursuing "professionalization, youthfulness, and internationalization," with its children's business and e-commerce showing rapid growth [11]. Operational Challenges - Anta's average inventory turnover days increased from 114 to 136 days, indicating rising inventory pressure [13]. - Li Ning reported a stable cash flow but acknowledged a decrease in offline customer traffic, impacting sales [13]. - Xtep's main brand revenue growth slowed to 4.5%, below the previous year's 6.6%, indicating potential challenges in sustaining growth [15].

Group 1 - Adidas has signed NBA star Anthony Edwards for his first promotional tour in China, following previous visits by other NBA players, indicating a strong push in marketing and brand engagement in the Chinese market [2] - The influx of NBA stars to China is part of a broader strategy by sports brands like Adidas, Li Ning, and Under Armour to leverage celebrity endorsements for new product launches and to connect with local fans [2] - Despite claims that the sneaker market is declining, major sports brands continue to invest heavily in basketball, suggesting confidence in the long-term viability of this segment [2][4] Group 2 - Adidas has recently signed a lifetime contract with NBA star Damian Lillard, highlighting the brand's commitment to basketball and its strategy to secure long-term partnerships with key athletes [4] - The basketball business for Adidas saw significant success in the 1980s and 1990s, but the brand is now focused on identifying new star players to maintain its market presence [4] - Under Armour has successfully built its basketball brand around Stephen Curry, demonstrating the potential for growth through strategic athlete partnerships [4] Group 3 - The sneaker market has experienced a cooling trend, with only 47% of sneakers on the StockX platform expected to sell above retail price in 2024, down from 58% in 2020, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [8] - The rise of marathon running has led to increased competition from new brands like ON and HOKA, prompting traditional brands to diversify their offerings towards running shoes [9] - Despite the market cooling, basketball shoes remain a crucial segment for sports brands, with companies like Li Ning emphasizing the importance of basketball in their overall strategy [9][11] Group 4 - High-end basketball shoes are viewed as a premium segment within the sneaker market, representing the pinnacle of technology and trendsetting in athletic footwear [11] - The era of extreme sneaker speculation may be over, leading to more rational pricing and increased accessibility for consumers, provided that brands continue to innovate and offer attractive products [11]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning is at a critical juncture, facing declining profits and increasing competition, prompting a strategic shift towards a focus on professional sports rather than relying on the "national trend" [2][4]. Financial Performance - Li Ning's net profit for 2024 decreased by 5.5% to 3.013 billion yuan, with a further decline of 11.0% to 1.737 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. - In contrast, Anta's revenue growth for 2024 was 13.6%, with a profit increase of over 50% to 16.989 billion yuan, highlighting the widening gap between the two companies [2]. - Li Ning's revenue growth was only 3.9% in 2024, slowing to 3.3% in the first half of 2025, significantly below pre-pandemic levels [2]. Strategic Adjustments - Li Ning is optimizing its store structure by closing 51 stores to improve asset quality and reduce reliance on market share [3][12]. - The company is experiencing a decline in gross margin by 0.4 percentage points to 50.0%, and net margin is also under pressure due to increased discounts and marketing costs [3][4]. Shift to Professional Sports - Li Ning is transitioning from a reliance on "national trend" to establishing a "professional sports" brand image, focusing on technology and performance to counteract market fatigue [6][10]. - The company increased R&D investment by 8.7% in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing revenue growth, with a focus on core sports categories like running, basketball, and training [9][10]. Channel Optimization - Li Ning's channel strategy involves a "surgical" approach to reduce low-performing stores while investing in flagship locations in high-value areas [12][15]. - The average store size for major outlets is 242 square meters, with an average monthly revenue of 300,000 yuan, indicating a focus on efficiency and profitability [14][15]. Leadership Changes - Li Ning hired Victor Herrero, a former Zara executive, at a salary of 42 million yuan to lead the multi-brand strategy, aiming to enhance brand performance and operational efficiency [18][19]. - The company is exploring potential acquisitions, such as Puma, to strengthen its multi-brand portfolio, although internal operational challenges remain a concern [20][21]. Future Outlook - Li Ning's transformation is seen as a "second startup," requiring patience and resilience to navigate market challenges and internal restructuring [21][22]. - The success of this strategy hinges on the ability to convert R&D investments into consumer-recognized value in a competitive landscape [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning is facing significant challenges, with declining profits and increasing competition from rivals like Anta, prompting a strategic shift towards a more professional sports brand image [1][3][19]. Financial Performance - Li Ning's net profit fell by 5.5% to 3.013 billion yuan in 2024 and further declined by 11.0% to 1.737 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1]. - Revenue growth for Li Ning was only 3.9% in 2024, with a further slowdown to 3.3% in the first half of 2025, significantly lagging behind Anta's 13.6% revenue growth [1][19]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is transitioning from a reliance on "national trend" to a focus on "professional sports," aiming to reshape its brand image [4][19]. - Li Ning's strategy includes optimizing its store structure by closing 51 underperforming stores to improve asset quality [1][11]. Product and R&D Focus - In the first half of 2025, Li Ning's R&D investment increased by 8.7%, outpacing revenue growth, with a focus on high-performance running shoes and basketball products [7][8]. - The company is concentrating resources on three core sports areas: running, basketball, and training, while also exploring new categories like outdoor and tennis [7][8]. Marketing and Brand Communication - Li Ning's marketing strategy has shifted to emphasize technology, performance, and athlete stories, moving away from cultural branding [8][19]. - The company has secured partnerships with the Chinese Olympic Committee and prominent athletes to enhance its professional image [8]. Channel Optimization - Li Ning is undergoing a "channel surgery" to focus on high-value locations, closing low-performing stores in lower-tier cities while expanding flagship stores in major urban areas [12][14]. - The average store size has increased to 242 square meters, with a monthly sales contribution of approximately 300,000 yuan from high-tier markets [13]. Leadership and Organizational Changes - Li Ning has appointed Victor Herrero, a former Zara executive, as co-CEO, aiming to leverage his experience in fast fashion to enhance brand performance [16][17]. - The company is exploring a multi-brand strategy, with Herrero's role seen as crucial for integrating Clarks and other brands into its portfolio [17][19]. Future Outlook - Li Ning's transformation is viewed as a "second startup," requiring patience and resilience to navigate internal challenges and external competition [20]. - The success of this strategic shift hinges on the company's ability to convert R&D investments into consumer-recognized value in a competitive market [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's performance in H1 2025 exceeded market expectations, with revenue growth driven by wholesale channels and professional products, despite challenges in certain categories [1][2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Li Ning achieved revenue of 14.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.0% [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 870 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 50% [1] Channel Performance - Revenue from direct sales, wholesale, and e-commerce channels in H1 2025 was 3.38 billion yuan (-3%), 6.88 billion yuan (+4%), and 4.30 billion yuan (+7%) respectively, aligning with overall sales growth [1] - The running and training categories saw significant growth, each increasing by 15% year-on-year, while basketball and lifestyle categories continued to decline, with decreases of 20% and 7% respectively [1] Operational Metrics - Gross margin in H1 2025 was 50.0%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to deeper discounts and a slight increase in e-commerce sales proportion [1] - Operating profit margin (OPM) was 16.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, but still above market expectations [1] - Advertising and marketing expenses increased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.0% of revenue, with higher spending anticipated in H2 2025 [1] Product and Inventory Management - The inventory turnover ratio remained stable at approximately 4 months, with new products accounting for 82% of sales, a slight decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year [2] - Professional products contributed over 60% to revenue, with improved discount rates and a sell-through rate maintained between 70%-80% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.59 billion yuan, 2.77 billion yuan, and 2.99 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [2] - Increased brand promotion efforts are anticipated to seek growth amidst intensifying competition, with potential recovery in the basketball category due to new product launches [2]