| 代码 | 简称 | 类型 | 成交金额（万港元） | 成交净买入（万港元） | 日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(沪) | 578712.83 | -120489.75 | 4.86 | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(深) | 391085.00 | -54894.03 | 4.86 | | 00981 | 中芯国际 | 港股通(沪) | 323132.21 | -51384.43 | 3.91 | | 00700 | 腾讯控股 | 港股通(沪) | 293306.14 | -16171.79 | 3.21 | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 港股通(沪) | 216834.31 | -39191.46 | 2.57 | | 00981 | 中芯国际 | 港股通(深) | 216571.00 | 18934.78 | 3.91 | | 01347 | 华虹半导体 | 港股通(沪) | 171075.45 | 10500.99 | 2.77 | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Life Insurance [7][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, projected to grow by 50%-70% year-on-year, primarily driven by substantial improvements in investment income and insurance service performance [2][14]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the recovering equity market, which has exceeded expectations, contributing to the company's improved profitability [4][14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 405,040 million - 2024A: 528,567 million - 2025E: 665,291 million (26% increase from 2024A) - 2026E: 657,033 million (1% decrease from 2025E) - 2027E: 728,939 million (11% increase from 2026E) [5][15] - **Net Profit (Attributable to Shareholders)**: - 2023A: 51,184 million - 2024A: 106,935 million (109% increase from 2023A) - 2025E: 181,868 million (70% increase from 2024A) - 2026E: 192,657 million (6% increase from 2025E) - 2027E: 212,462 million (10% increase from 2026E) [5][15] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 1.81 - 2024A: 3.78 - 2025E: 6.43 - 2026E: 6.82 - 2027E: 7.52 [5][15] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 11% - 2024A: 21% - 2025E: 30% - 2026E: 27% - 2027E: 26% [5][15] Investment Drivers - The report emphasizes the strong growth in new business value (NBV), expected to increase by 30.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from proactive sales strategies before the adjustment of the "831" interest rate [14]. - The company has significantly increased its allocation to equity investments, with core equity assets reaching 969.123 billion, a 35.7% increase from the first half of 2024, which is expected to enhance investment returns [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - China Life Insurance is expected to see a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 50%-70%, driven primarily by substantial investment income and improved insurance service performance [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 50.42 yuan, and a projected P/EV of 0.9x for 2025. The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters is projected to be between 156.785 billion and 177.689 billion yuan, reflecting a notable increase compared to the 6.9% profit growth in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The estimated net profit for the third quarter alone is expected to be between 115.854 billion and 136.758 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 75%-106%. This growth is attributed to a significant rise in investment income and improvements in insurance service performance [2]. Investment Income Growth - The substantial increase in investment income is anticipated to result from a recovery in the stock market and an optimized asset allocation strategy that favors equity assets. As of September 2025, the CSI 300 index has risen by 17.9% year-to-date, compared to 17.1% in the same period last year, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 15.8% year-to-date [3]. - The company has actively promoted the entry of long-term funds into the market, enhancing equity investment efforts. The core equity assets (stocks and funds, excluding money market funds) reached 969.123 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a growth of 35.7% year-on-year [3]. Insurance Service Performance - The company is expected to see strong growth in new business value (NBV), with a projected year-on-year increase of 30.7% for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an acceleration from the growth rate in the first half of 2025. This is attributed to proactive new policy sales before the adjustment of the "831" interest rate [4]. - Additionally, the rise in the ten-year government bond yield by 20 basis points year-to-date, along with strict cost control measures, is expected to further enhance the performance of insurance services [4]. Catalysts - An unexpected improvement in the equity market is identified as a potential catalyst for further growth [5].

10月20日港股市场，北水成交净卖出26.7港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净卖出22.86亿港元，港股通(深)成交净卖出3.84亿港 元。 北水净买入最多的个股是南方恒生科技(03033)、中海油(00883)、中国人寿（601628）(02628)。北水净卖出最多的个股是阿 里巴巴-W(09988)、小米集团-W(01810)、中芯国际(00981)。 | 股票名称 | 买入额 | 卖出额 | 买卖总额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 净流入 | | 阿里巴巴-W | 22.91亿 | 34.96亿 | 57.87 亿 | | HK 09988 | | | -12.05 Z | | 中芯国际 | 13.59 亿 | 18.73亿 | 32.31亿 | | HK 00981 | | | -5.14 Z- | | 腾讯控股 | 13.86 乙 | 15.47 亿 | 29.33 乙 | | HK 00700 | | | -1.62 Z | | 小米集团-W | 8.88 亿 | 12.80 亿 | 21.68亿 | | HK 01810 | | | -3.92 Z- | | ...

智通财经记者 | 吕文琦 上市险企近日好消息不断，保费、盈利双飘红，股价持续上涨。 自10月13日晚新华保险（601336.SH，01336.HK）率先披露三季报预告以来，人保财险（中国财险， 02328.HK）、中国人寿（601628.SH，02628.HK）相继发布2025年前三季度业绩预增公告。这三家险企 的净利润同比增幅均保持在40%以上，其中中国人寿以50%-70%的增幅领跑。 投资收益助推利润上涨 10月19日晚，中国人寿公告称，经初步测算，2025年前三季度预计实现归属于母公司股东的净利润约 1567.85亿元到1776.89亿元，同比增加约522.62亿元到731.66亿元，同比增长约50%到70%，保持高基数 上的高增长。 谈及本期业绩预增的主要原因时，中国人寿表示，公司聚焦价值创造与效益提升，持续深化资负联动， 深入推进产品和业务多元，可持续发展能力进一步增强。公司稳健开展跨周期投资布局，持续提升投资 专业能力，不断增强投资组合收益稳定性，提升长期回报潜力。 此前，10月13日晚，新华保险发布公告称，预计前三季度归属于母公司股东的净利润为299.86亿元至 341.22亿元，同比增加93. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net selling from Northbound capital, totaling HKD 26.7 billion, with notable net sell-offs in major stocks like Alibaba and Xiaomi [1][2]. Group 1: Northbound Capital Flow - Northbound capital recorded a net sell of HKD 22.86 billion through the Shanghai Stock Connect and HKD 3.84 billion through the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The stocks with the highest net buying from Northbound capital included Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033), CNOOC (00883), and China Life (02628) [1]. - The stocks with the highest net selling included Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and SMIC (00981) [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) saw a net sell of HKD 17.53 billion, with Fitch projecting strong business conditions and financial health, despite short-term profitability pressures due to intense competition [7]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) experienced a net sell of HKD 3.4 billion, reflecting broader market trends affecting tech stocks [7]. - CNOOC (00883) received a net buy of HKD 1.62 billion, supported by a Morgan Stanley report indicating a potential recovery in oil prices by 2027 [4]. - China Life (02628) had a net buy of HKD 1.37 billion, with a projected net profit increase of 50% to 70% year-on-year for the first three quarters [5]. - Tencent (00700) saw a net buy of HKD 966.7 million, driven by positive user growth in its gaming segment and improving ad revenue [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - The semiconductor sector faced increased selling pressure, with Huahong Semiconductor (01347) and SMIC (00981) experiencing net sells of HKD 329 million and HKD 3.24 billion, respectively, amid rising export controls from the U.S. [6][7]. - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) recorded a net buy of HKD 3.75 billion, indicating investor interest in tech despite broader market challenges [7].

从资金流向上来看，当日保险板块主力资金净流入3.68亿元，游资资金净流出1.43亿元，散户资金净流出 2.25亿元。保险板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，10月20日保险板块较上一交易日上涨2.15%，中国人寿领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3863.89，上涨0.63%。深证成指报收于12813.21，上涨0.98%。保险板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601628 | 中国人寿 | 42.50 | 4.14% | 51.49万 | 21.94亿 | | 601318 | 中国平安 | 57.90 | 1.08% | 52.67万 | 30.58亿 | | 601601 | 中国太保 | 37.07 | 0.87% | 30.88万 | 11.49 亿 | | 61319 | 中国人保 | 8.55 | 0.59% | 106.16万 | 9.09亿 | | 601336 | 新华保险 | 67.26 | 0.45% | 29.48万 | 19.88 G ...

Core Viewpoint - China Life Insurance Company Limited (hereinafter referred to as "China Life") expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a range of approximately CNY 156.79 billion to CNY 177.69 billion, which represents a year-on-year growth of about 50% to 70% compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Financial Performance - The projected net profit increase is estimated to be between CNY 52.26 billion to CNY 73.17 billion compared to 2024 [2] - The expected performance is unaudited [2] Strategic Initiatives - China Life emphasizes its role as an economic "shock absorber" and a social "stabilizer," focusing on value creation and efficiency improvement [2] - The company is committed to enhancing its sustainable development capabilities through diversified products and business operations [2] Investment Strategy - The company adheres to a long-term, value-oriented, and prudent investment philosophy, actively engaging in cross-cycle investment strategies [2] - China Life has been increasing its equity investments, taking advantage of market opportunities, and optimizing its asset allocation structure [2] - The company reports a significant improvement in investment returns year-on-year due to its proactive approach in the stock market [2]

证券研究报告 中国人寿 (601628 CH/2628 HK) 业绩预增：前三季度归母净利润同比 增长 50%~70% 我们预计，中国人寿三季度 NBV 有望保持增长。一方面，在预定利率下调 和报行合一的推动下，NBV 利润率或同比有所改善。继 2024 年 9 月 1 日/10 月 1 日传统险/分红险预定利率下调为 2.5%/2.0%后，今年 9 月 1 日传统险/ 分红险预定利率下调为 2.0%/1.75%，预定利率连续下调有助于降低负债成 本，抬高 NBV 利润率。另一方面，2024 年 4 月监管取消了一家银行网点只 能销售三家保险公司产品的"一对三"限制，大公司得以迅速扩张银行网点。 今年上半年，国寿包含银保在内的其他渠道的 NBV 同比增速高达 179%左 右（可比口径），我们预计银保高增长趋势在三季度有望延续。全渠道看， 公司三季度 NBV 有望稳健增长。 盈利预测与估值 华泰研究 公告点评 2025 年 10 月 20 日│中国内地/中国香港 保险 公司发布 3Q25 业绩预增公告：预计公司 2025 年前三季度归母净利润同比 增长 50%~70%。我们估算，三季度单季度归母净利润或同比增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share third quarter reports are accelerating disclosure, with several insurance companies exceeding expectations, particularly China Life, which is projected to see a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 50%-70% for the first three quarters, and a quarterly increase of 75%-106% in Q3 despite last year's high base [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Life's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 50%-70% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with a Q3 single-quarter growth of 75%-106% [1] - New China Life has also announced a profit increase, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 45% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - There are signs of a market style shift towards undervalued blue-chip stocks in the fourth quarter [1] - The current valuation of A-share insurance stocks remains low, but their growth rate is relatively high compared to the entire industry, highlighting their investment value [1] - As the fundamentals on both the asset and liability sides continue to improve, the valuation center of insurance stocks is expected to rise further [1]