Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy truck industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The heavy truck industry continues to experience high prosperity driven by the vehicle replacement policy, with significant year-on-year growth in sales and exports [9][19][73] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In October 2025, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 106,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Registration sales were 70,000 units, up 57.0% year-on-year but down 15.9% month-on-month. Exports totaled 37,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.4% and a month-on-month increase of 13.9% [9][19][73]. Three Driving Forces 1. **Oil and Gas Price Differential**: The oil and gas price differential has decreased, with the price difference remaining around 3,000 yuan/ton throughout 2025. As of November 10, 2025, the price differential was 2,470.7 yuan, marking a low for the year [33][37]. 2. **New Energy Penetration**: The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks continues to grow, with October 2025 registration sales reaching 20,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 156.7% [51][55]. 3. **Strong Demand in Asia and Africa**: Exports to Asia and Africa have seen robust demand, with heavy truck exports in October 2025 reaching 37,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 39.4% [73][76]. Inventory Management - Inventory levels are being effectively reduced, with both enterprise and channel inventories showing a downward trend. In October 2025, enterprise inventory decreased by 200 units, while channel inventory fell by 100 units [14]. Market Share and Sales by Major Companies - The top three heavy truck manufacturers in October 2025 were China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Group, and Dongfeng Motor Corporation, with wholesale sales of 28,000 units, 24,000 units, and 15,000 units respectively. Their market shares were 26.5%, 22.5%, and 14.0%, reflecting year-on-year increases [12][27]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - The registration volume of natural gas heavy trucks in October 2025 was 21,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 137.9%. The penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks reached 30.1%, up 10.2 percentage points year-on-year [37][45]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached 28.3% in October 2025, with significant growth in sales of new energy tractors and dump trucks [51][55]. Export Performance - Heavy truck exports in October 2025 were 37,000 units, with Africa and Asia being the largest markets, accounting for 44.5% and 41.8% of total exports respectively [73][76].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Truck) from HKD 24.3 to HKD 29, maintaining a neutral rating, as the current stock price reasonably reflects its growth prospects [1] - The company has set an annual sales target of 300,000 units for the year, which is progressing smoothly [1] - Management indicated that they are steadily advancing towards their sales and profit margin targets for 2025, with a cautious capital expenditure plan of no more than RMB 2 billion per year from 2025 to 2027, focusing on overseas production base construction in countries like Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Indonesia [1] Group 2 - The dividend payout ratio is expected to be no less than 55% for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - Based on updated sales and gross margin assumptions, Bank of America Securities has raised its revenue forecasts for China National Heavy Truck for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 5%, 4%, and 4% respectively [1] - The gross margin forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 0.5 percentage points each due to the rising proportion of overseas sales, and earnings per share forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised by 4%, 10%, and 10% respectively [1]

消息面上，根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，11月份，我国重卡市场共计销售10万辆左右，同比大幅 增长约46%。今年1-11月，我国重卡市场累计销量已达到103万辆，同比增长约26%；总销量110万辆已 经近在咫尺。 本文源自：智通财经网 智通财经获悉，中国重汽(03808)再涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.22%，报29.14港元，成交额7104.02万港 元。 美银证券发表报告指，与中国重汽举行了电话会议。管理层表示，中国重汽全年销量目标30万辆进展顺 利。公司正稳步推进2025年销售与利润率目标，并表示2025-2027年间将维持审慎资本支出计划，每年 不超过20亿元人民币，重点投入海外生产基地建设(如哈萨克、巴西、印尼)。同时预计2025-2027年度派 息比率不低于55%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 4% to HKD 29.14, with a trading volume of HKD 71.04 million [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In November, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 100,000 units, representing a substantial year-on-year growth of about 46% [1] - From January to November, the cumulative sales in China's heavy truck market reached 1.03 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of around 26% [1] - The total sales volume of heavy trucks is nearing 1.1 million units [1] Group 2: Company Strategy and Outlook - According to a report from Bank of America Securities, a conference call with China National Heavy Duty Truck's management indicated that the company is on track to meet its annual sales target of 300,000 units [1] - The company is steadily advancing its sales and profit margin goals for 2025, with a cautious capital expenditure plan of no more than RMB 2 billion per year from 2025 to 2027, focusing on overseas production base construction in countries like Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Indonesia [1] - The company anticipates a dividend payout ratio of no less than 55% for the years 2025 to 2027 [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年11月30日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 中国重汽（香港）有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年12月2日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03808 | 說明 | 普通股 | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,760,993,339 | | 0 | | 2,760,993,339 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | ...

Group 1: Heavy Truck Market Overview - In November 2025, China's heavy truck market is expected to sell around 100,000 units, a decrease of approximately 6% month-on-month from October 2025, but a significant increase of about 46% year-on-year from 68,500 units [1] - The heavy truck market has experienced eight consecutive months of growth from April to November, with an average growth rate of 42% [1] - Strong terminal sales growth, driven by the policy on scrapping old operational trucks, has supported the high wholesale sales in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2: New Energy and Gas Heavy Trucks - New energy heavy trucks have set new records, while natural gas heavy trucks have seen four consecutive months of growth, each exceeding 20,000 units for three months [1] - Domestic diesel heavy truck terminal sales in November are expected to remain stable [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook and Recommendations - CITIC Construction Investment has reported a stable outlook for domestic heavy truck sales and continued growth in exports, highlighting the importance of ongoing domestic subsidies and opportunities for leading companies to exceed performance expectations [1] - The release of replacement demand in 2026 and sustained export growth are expected to support a high and stable industry total [1] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group - In the first half of 2025, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group achieved sales of 9,376 new energy heavy trucks, a year-on-year increase of 220.3%, with a market share of 11.8% [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.68 yuan per share, totaling 1.877 billion yuan, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 54.8% [2] - In the first half of 2025, heavy truck exports to non-Russian regions reached 143,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, supporting overseas demand growth [2] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - Weichai Power - Weichai Power anticipates a 10% recovery in industry sales in 2025, potentially reaching 1 million units, benefiting from scrapping subsidies [3] - The company delivered 5,000 large-bore engines in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 41%, with a projected median annual sales of 11,000 large-bore engines [3] - The company delivered 10,000 new energy heavy trucks, achieving a market share of approximately 12.6%, with expectations for significant growth in the second half of the year [3]

Industry Overview - In November 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 100,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of about 6% from October 2025, but a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 46% from 68,500 units in the same month last year [1] - The heavy truck market has experienced eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42% from April to November 2025 [1] - Strong terminal sales growth, driven by the policy promoting the scrapping and updating of old operating trucks, has supported domestic demand [1] New Energy and Gas Trucks - New energy heavy trucks have set new records, while natural gas heavy trucks have seen four consecutive months of growth, exceeding 20,000 units for three consecutive months [1] - Domestic diesel heavy truck terminal sales in November are expected to remain stable [1] Company Insights China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved sales of 9,376 new energy heavy trucks, a year-on-year increase of 220.3%, surpassing the industry growth rate, with a market share of 11.8% [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.68 yuan per share, totaling 1.877 billion yuan, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 54.8% [2] - In the first half of 2025, heavy truck exports to non-Russian regions reached 143,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, supporting overseas demand growth [2] Weichai Power - The scrapping subsidy is expected to stimulate a 10% recovery in industry sales in 2025, reaching 1 million units, benefiting the company as a leading heavy truck engine manufacturer [3] - The company delivered 5,000 large-bore engines in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41%, with a projected total delivery of 11,000 large-bore engines for the year [3] - The company delivered 10,000 new energy heavy trucks, capturing a market share of approximately 12.6%, with expectations of 2-3 times growth in new energy products in the second half of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation in the commercial vehicle industry, particularly focusing on the innovation in trailer technology as a crucial component of the green revolution in transportation, alongside the electrification of tractors [1][6]. Group 1: Strategic Collaboration - The partnership between China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) and Fengbao Group marks a significant upgrade from a simple supply relationship to a strategic collaboration aimed at achieving carbon neutrality [3][4]. - Both companies aim to leverage their strengths: CNHTC's robust vehicle manufacturing capabilities and Fengbao's expertise in lightweight components and cost control, to create a new generation of green logistics [6][20]. Group 2: Product Innovation - Fengbao Group launched two innovative trailer axle systems: a "power generation axle" for electric tractors and a "hybrid semi-trailer axle" for traditional fuel vehicles, showcasing their commitment to technological advancement [8][10]. - The power generation axle is designed to be lightweight, with a target weight of 450 kg, significantly lighter than traditional electric drive axles, enhancing cargo capacity [10][15]. - Cost optimization is achieved through innovative technology that allows the power generation axle to share the main vehicle's battery, reducing initial investment and shortening the return on investment period [13][15]. Group 3: Market Positioning and Value Creation - The market positioning of the new products is clear, targeting specific operational scenarios that require energy recovery, such as long downhill routes and frequent stop-and-go conditions in urban areas [16][18]. - The economic benefits of these products are highlighted, with potential savings on fuel costs leading to a quick return on investment for users [16][18]. Group 4: Industry Standards and Ecosystem Development - The collaboration aims to establish industry standards for hardware interfaces and communication protocols before national standards are set, which could simplify the matching of tractors and trailers and reduce costs [18][20]. - Fengbao is building a strong industrial ecosystem by partnering with leading companies in various fields, ensuring tight and lasting technological cooperation [20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The partnership and product launches signify a shift towards a collaborative approach in the commercial vehicle sector, where both tractors and trailers must work in harmony to achieve green logistics [20]. - The article concludes with optimism about the future of China's new energy commercial vehicle industry, driven by the synergy between tractors and trailers [20].

Core Viewpoint - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Truck) shares rose over 4%, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company amid strong sales forecasts in the heavy truck sector [1] Industry Summary - In October 2025, approximately 93,000 heavy trucks were sold in China, representing a month-on-month decrease of about 12% from September 2025, but a significant year-on-year increase of around 40% compared to 66,400 units sold in the same month last year [1] - Cumulative sales for the first ten months reached 916,000 units, with annual sales expected to exceed one million, potentially reaching 1.1 million units [1] - CITIC Construction Investment released a report highlighting a stable domestic demand outlook and continuous export growth for heavy trucks, emphasizing the importance of ongoing domestic subsidies and the potential for leading companies to exceed performance expectations [1] - The report also noted that the release of replacement demand in 2026 and sustained export growth could support a high and stable industry total [1] - If subsidy policies continue, the industry's prosperity may exceed expectations, with recommendations to monitor domestic subsidy policy continuity, macroeconomic demand expansion policies, and the sustainability of export growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the coming quarters [5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to stabilize in Q4 2025, with potential upward movement in Q1 2026, driven by policy direction, profit expectations, and valuation adjustments [1]. - Recent retail performance has been subdued due to the impact of trade-in incentives, and the Guangzhou Auto Show has had limited effect on new car sales [1]. - The report highlights the rebound of state-owned enterprises in vehicle manufacturing, influenced by catalyst factors [1]. Data Tracking - In late November, the discount rate for vehicles increased slightly to 10.1%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points [3]. - October wholesale vehicle sales reached 2.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6% [3]. - Retail sales in October were 2.09 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.2% and a month-on-month decline of 6.4% [3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 3.33%, ranking 11th among sectors [9]. - The overall market indices also showed positive movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 4.54% [9]. Industry News - As of October 2025, the automotive industry reported a profit of 389.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with total revenue reaching 8,877.8 billion yuan [29]. - The inventory level for passenger vehicles at the end of October was 3.41 million units, indicating a seasonal increase in stock [29]. - New energy vehicle company Li Auto announced plans to release AI-powered accessories, indicating a trend towards integrating advanced technology in vehicles [29].