7月重卡销量达8.3万辆，同比大幅增长42.4%，延续高景气态势;环比下降15.2%，主要系行业季节性波 动影响，整体呈现"淡季不淡"特征。分结构来看：1)国内终端需求稳健，同比增长超20%，其中天然气 重卡表现亮眼，渗透率环比提升至24%;2)新能源渗透保持，电动重卡渗透率突破26%，维持高速增长;3) 出口持续发力，预计同比增幅超20%。行业复苏态势明确，销售结构持续优化。 政策落地叠加经济性修复，天然气重卡有望迎来拐点 智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研报称，优先关注重卡板块龙头，中国重汽(03808)则受益于内销转暖 与出口持续增长，成本与费用管控持续推进，下半年业绩有望实现高增，考虑板块景气度回升，估值有 望同步扩张，具备双击机会。潍柴动力(02338)天然气发动机边际已开始改善，非重卡的大缸径发动机 产品持续高增，全年有望贡献显著业绩增量，成长性显著优于行业，全年分红有望提升，股息率具备吸 引力。福田汽车(600166.SH)则关注福田戴姆勒拖累减轻，重卡市占率提升带来业绩弹性机会。 事件：根据第一商用车网，7月重卡实现整体销量约8.3万辆，同比增长42.4%，环比下降15.2%;1-7月重 卡实 ...

事件：根据第一商用车网，7月重卡实现整体销量约8.3万辆，同比增长42.4%，环比下降15.2%;1-7月重 卡实现销量62.2万辆，同比增长10.6%。 方正证券主要观点如下： 方正证券发布研报称，优先关注重卡板块龙头，中国重汽（000951）(03808)则受益于内销转暖与出口 持续增长，成本与费用管控持续推进，下半年业绩有望实现高增，考虑板块景气度回升，估值有望同步 扩张，具备双击机会。潍柴动力（000338）(02338)天然气发动机边际已开始改善，非重卡的大缸径发 动机产品持续高增，全年有望贡献显著业绩增量，成长性显著优于行业，全年分红有望提升，股息率具 备吸引力。福田汽车（600166）(600166.SH)则关注福田戴姆勒拖累减轻，重卡市占率提升带来业绩弹 性机会。 相关标的：中国重汽A/H、潍柴动力、福田汽车、一汽解放（000800）、中集车辆（301039）等。 政策落地叠加经济性修复，天然气重卡有望迎来拐点 6月以来，北方地区报废更新政策密集落地，叠加LNG价格下行致油气价差扩大，天然气重卡经济性再 度提升，7月销量环比改善明显，8月有望延续增长态势。上半年受油气价差收窄拖累，行业销量承压 ...

比亚迪股份-R(81211)、中国海洋石油-R(80883)、美团-WR(83690)上一交易日沽空比率位于前三位，分 别为96.88%、80.42%、75.34%。美团-W(03690)、阿里巴巴-SW(09988)、快手-W(01024)的沽空金额位 居前三，分别为34.76 亿元、25.06 亿元、13.74 亿元。万科企业(02202)、中国海洋石油-R(80883)、比亚 迪股份-R(81211)的偏离值位居前三，分别为36.01%、35.40%、26.18%。 前十大沽空比率排行 | 股票名称 | 沽空金额 | 沽空比率↓ | 偏离值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 比亚迪股份-R(81211) | 496.68 万元 | 96.88% | 26.18% | | 中国海洋石油-R(80883) | 57.37 万元 | 80.42% | 35.40% | | 美团-WR(83690) | 715.97 万元 | 75.34% | 15.02% | | 商汤-WR(80020) | 88.77 万元 | 66.55% | 13.10% | | 阿里巴巴-SWR(89988 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [62]. Core Views - June sales figures for the heavy truck industry exceeded expectations, with production, wholesale, and export volumes all showing positive growth [5][7]. - The market structure indicates a recovery in domestic sales for Foton, while Jiefang and Dongfeng saw an increase in export market share [6][39]. - The heavy truck segment is experiencing a significant increase in new energy vehicles, while natural gas truck sales are declining [7][28]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In June, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 98,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 37.1% and month-on-month growth of 10.2%, surpassing expectations [4][19]. - Terminal sales for June were 69,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 47.0% and a month-on-month increase of 9.7%, also exceeding expectations [4][15]. - Export sales in June were 29,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 23.8% and month-on-month growth of 10.5%, again surpassing expectations [4][19]. - The current total industry inventory stands at 144,000 units, with a slight decrease in channel inventory [20]. Market Structure Tracking - The market share for heavy truck manufacturers in June was as follows: Jiefang 19.8%, Dongfeng 21.1%, Heavy Truck 16.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.1%, and Foton 13.4% [6][37]. - In the export market, the shares were: Jiefang 17.2%, Dongfeng 13.3%, Heavy Truck 42.7%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 15.5%, and Foton 7.3% [6][39]. - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks reached 25.9%, with a significant year-on-year increase of 159% in sales [7][28]. Engine Market Structure - Weichai maintained the largest market share in the engine segment at 17.9%, although it saw a decline compared to previous periods [8][48]. - The market shares for natural gas engines were reported as follows: Weichai 49.0%, Cummins 19.6%, and others [55]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power, highlighting the potential for performance improvement in FAW Jiefang and Foton [57].

Core Viewpoint - The fuel cell market is experiencing a significant decline in both installed capacity and vehicle registration, indicating potential challenges for the industry moving forward [3][25]. Group 1: Fuel Cell Data - In H1 2025, the installed capacity of fuel cells was 253.69 MW, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 53.8% [3]. - The number of fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) registered in H1 2025 was 1,967, which is a year-on-year decrease of 22.0% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 57.3% [3]. Group 2: Market Share and Competition - The top three companies in the fuel cell market are Dongfang Hydrogen, Hyundai, and Yuntai Hydrogen, which together account for 64.4% of the market share in terms of vehicle registration [5]. - Dongfang Hydrogen led the market with a 19.6% share in terms of vehicle support, while Hyundai and Yuntai Hydrogen followed closely [6]. Group 3: Vehicle Registration by Manufacturer - The leading manufacturers for FCEV registrations in H1 2025 were China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Hyundai, and SANY, with China National Heavy Duty Truck Group achieving 564 registrations [12][14]. - The focus of these manufacturers includes specialized vehicles such as tractors and dedicated vehicles, with significant activity in regions like Sichuan and Shandong [14]. Group 4: Usage Cities and Policy Impact - The cities with the highest number of registered FCEVs include Chengdu (500 vehicles), Guangzhou, and Beijing, indicating a concentration of activity in these areas [15]. - Non-demonstration cities accounted for 40.9% of the total registrations, suggesting a shift towards commercializing hydrogen vehicles beyond designated pilot areas [16]. Group 5: Vehicle Functionality and Trends - The majority of registered fuel cell vehicles in H1 2025 were tractors, making up 36.7% of the total, followed by cold chain logistics vehicles [20]. - There has been an increase in the proportion of specialized vehicles, indicating a trend towards higher power applications in the fuel cell sector [21]. Group 6: Market Outlook - As of H1 2025, the total number of hydrogen vehicles in China reached 30,200, which is only 60.4% of the target set for 2025 [25]. - The market outlook for the second half of 2025 includes potential benefits such as extended deadlines for demonstration city assessments and increased vehicle registrations in underperforming regions [25].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China is showing a positive trend with a cumulative sales of 539,200 units in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%, indicating a strong possibility of returning to an annual sales volume of 1 million units [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the heavy truck market experienced a fluctuating sales trend with monthly growth rates of -25%, 36%, -4%, 7%, 14%, and 37%, culminating in a total sales of 539,200 units [4]. - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) achieved a "six consecutive months" sales victory in the heavy truck segment, with an average monthly sales of 24,800 units, leading to a cumulative sales of 148,800 units and a market share of 27.60% [6][9]. - In the tractor truck segment, CNHTC also maintained a "six consecutive months" sales record, with a cumulative sales of 72,800 units and a market share of 26.96%, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.78 percentage points [11]. Group 2: Export and New Energy Vehicles - In the first half of 2025, China's commercial vehicle exports reached 501,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, with CNHTC exporting 74,500 units, representing a growth of 14.4% and accounting for 14.87% of total exports [13]. - The export performance has helped CNHTC mitigate the impact of weak domestic demand in the heavy truck market, particularly in the natural gas segment, while the new energy truck market has emerged as a pure growth area [15]. - CNHTC sold 9,400 units of various new energy heavy trucks in the first half of 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 221% and achieving a market share of 11.84% [15][17]. Group 3: Product Strategy and Market Position - CNHTC has established a competitive product lineup across diesel, natural gas, and new energy segments, with new energy heavy trucks accounting for 15.00% of total sales in the domestic market [19]. - The company has launched high-power natural gas trucks and customized solutions for various applications, achieving a market share of nearly 30% in the 600 horsepower and above natural gas heavy truck segment [20][22]. - The upcoming launch of the new diesel truck model, Shandeka G7M, is expected to capitalize on the recent positive sales trend in the diesel segment [23].

Core Insights - Shandong provincial state-owned enterprises (SOEs) reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, leading in revenue, total assets, and equity among 32 provincial state-owned enterprises in China, excluding municipalities [2] - The total revenue and total assets of Shandong SOEs continued to grow, with 15 enterprises achieving year-on-year revenue growth, and 22 enterprises reporting asset growth [2][4] - The profit total for Shandong SOEs reached 496.9 billion yuan, with 16 enterprises either increasing profits or reducing losses, indicating a significant recovery trend [2][3] Revenue and Asset Growth - In the first half of 2025, Shandong SOEs achieved a total revenue of 1002 billion yuan, with notable growth from companies like Shandong Gold and Inspur Group, which saw revenue increases of over 5% [2] - The total assets of 22 enterprises grew year-on-year, with 12 of them, including Hualu Group and Shandong Iron Investment, also experiencing growth rates exceeding 5% [2] Profitability and Cash Flow - Key enterprises such as Shandong Heavy Industry and Shandong Expressway reported profit totals of 149.7 billion yuan and 101.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.9% and 5.6% [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities for Shandong SOEs was 554 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, indicating improved self-sustainability [2] Innovation and R&D Investment - Shandong SOEs invested 203.6 billion yuan in R&D, focusing on sectors like machinery manufacturing and information technology, with new product revenue reaching 1126.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [4] - The provincial government has increased the weight of technology innovation in performance assessments from 12.5% to 33%, emphasizing the importance of innovation in corporate strategy [3] Market Expansion and Investment - Despite global market challenges, Shandong SOEs optimized their overseas market strategies, achieving export revenue of 607.3 billion yuan [4] - Fixed asset investment by Shandong SOEs totaled 719.3 billion yuan, with significant contributions from companies like Shandong Expressway and Shandong Iron Investment, which each invested over 100 billion yuan [4]

Group 1 - The 2025 Fortune China 500 list features 19 automotive companies, with significant rankings improvements, particularly among new energy vehicle manufacturers [2][3] - BYD rose from 40th to 27th place, indicating a strong market position and leadership effect [2] - Geely Group improved from 54th to 41st, showcasing its competitive strength in the market [2] Group 2 - New energy vehicle companies demonstrated remarkable growth, with significant advancements in technology and market penetration [3] - The overall ranking changes reflect a profound transformation in the Chinese automotive industry, with traditional manufacturers successfully transitioning to new energy [3] - The increasing investment and layout in the new energy sector by Chinese automotive companies suggest a stronger competitive edge in the global market [3]

Core Insights - Shandong Heavy Industry has demonstrated strong performance in overseas markets, with export revenue reaching 47.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and holding a 61.3% share of China's heavy truck export market [1] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation (CNHTC) has maintained its position as the industry leader in heavy truck exports for 20 consecutive years, with over 70,000 units exported in the first half of the year, generating 22.1 billion yuan in revenue [1] - The company is actively expanding its light truck exports, which saw a remarkable 73% year-on-year growth, successfully entering new markets such as the Middle East [2] Group 1: Heavy Truck Market - CNHTC's heavy truck export revenue reached 22.1 billion yuan, with a 3% increase in volume [1] - The company showcased its high-end products at Australia's largest construction machinery expo, highlighting its competitive edge in the premium market [1] Group 2: Light Truck Expansion - Light truck exports have become a new growth engine, with a 73% increase in the first half of the year [2] - The company has signed a localization project in Vietnam, further expanding its market presence [2] - The export of 500 units of the Bo Sheng pickup truck to Ecuador marks a significant step in the internationalization of its light vehicle segment [2] Group 3: Localization Strategy - Shandong Heavy Industry's success is attributed to its long-term localization strategy and efficient service system [4] - The company has established 29 KD factories, 246 service outlets, and 217 parts networks globally, enhancing market coverage and customer reach [4] - The first foreign trainer training camp has been launched to cultivate professionals familiar with local markets, boosting the effectiveness of local service teams [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Shandong Heavy Industry is poised for further global expansion, with its comprehensive service system and product range strengthening its international presence [6] - The ongoing globalization strategy is expected to elevate the company's profile on the international stage, setting new benchmarks for Chinese brands [6]

AI基金中欧红利优享灵活配置混合A（004814）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润3.59亿元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.1336元。报告期内，基金净 值增长率为8.22%，截至二季度末，基金规模为50.6亿元。 该基金属于灵活配置型基金，长期投资于周期股票。截至7月18日，单位净值为1.905元。基金经理是蓝小康，目前管理4只基金近一年均为正收益。其中， 截至7月18日，中欧价值发现混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达26.93%；中欧融恒平衡混合A最低，为18.56%。 基金管理人在二季报中表示，具体配置上，我们认为市场的核心收益来源是中国经济的稳定性和确定性，因此我们将持续看好港股和 A 股资产，尤其是低 估值。核心风险防范来自于西方的债务风险和地缘战争，贵金属类、资源类股票亦是不可或缺。具体行业上仍重点关注于银行、非银、有色、工程机械、重 卡、建筑、建材、钢铁、航空、纺织服装、餐饮等方向。随着供给侧改革的推进，以及股市的上行，传统制造业低 PB 个股、消费股的仓位将慢慢提升。 截至7月18日，中欧红利优享灵活配置混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为14.13%，位于同类可比基金16/82；近半 ...