Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with further policies expected to be introduced to support this trend [3][29]. - The report highlights that the performance of quality companies in the real estate sector remains resilient despite overall industry pressure, with some companies showing significant growth in profits [3][29]. - The report emphasizes the potential for new development tracks in the housing market, driven by policies aimed at improving housing quality and affordability, particularly in core cities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of August 16-22, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.834 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 11.7%. However, this is a decline of 37.1% compared to the average weekly transaction volume in 2024 [4][6]. - Year-on-year, new housing transactions in August 2025 decreased by 20.9% compared to August 2024, with first and second-tier cities seeing a decline of 19.9% and third and fourth-tier cities experiencing a decline of 32.7% [6][7]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.081 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.2%. Cumulatively, second-hand housing transactions in August 2025 showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [11][12]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - In the week of August 16-22, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1 million square meters of new housing, with total sales of 810,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.81. The average monthly inventory clearance period increased to 22 months [19][20]. - The report notes that the overall financing scale for real estate companies continues to grow, with July 2025 seeing bond financing of 71.39 billion yuan, marking a significant increase compared to previous months [29][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report discusses the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market through effective macro policies, including the issuance of special bonds for land acquisition and urban renewal projects [29][31]. - It highlights various local government initiatives aimed at improving housing accessibility and affordability, such as the introduction of "housing vouchers" in Guangzhou and adjustments to housing fund policies in Beijing and Kunming [29][31]. Company Dynamics - The report tracks the performance of key real estate companies, noting that while some companies like Vanke and Greentown China faced profit declines, others like Jianfa International and Greentown Services reported profit growth [3][29]. - It also mentions the successful issuance of bonds by several companies, indicating a positive trend in financing activities within the sector [3][29].

上 市 公 司 房地产 2025 年 08 月 24 日 绿城中国 (03900) ——历史业绩承压，未来活力显现，理顺机制再出发 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 10.70 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9079.93 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 13.78/0.00 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 271.74 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,539.60 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0955 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -4% 46% 96% 146% HSCEI 绿城中国 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× caoman@swsresearch.com 财务数据及盈利预测 投资要点： ⚫ 风险提示：房地产政策超预期收紧 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to uneven delivery schedules and substantial asset impairment losses [7][10]. - Despite the short-term pressure on performance, the company has shown notable improvements in operational margins, sales rankings, and financial stability, indicating a potential recovery in the future [7][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025H, the company achieved revenue of 53.368 billion (down 23.3%) and a net profit of 210 million (down 89.7%), largely impacted by uneven delivery schedules and a significant asset impairment loss of 1.933 billion [7][10]. - The gross margin was 13.4%, slightly up from 13.1% year-on-year, but still at a low level [10]. - The company recorded a total sales amount of 122.2 billion (including entrusted construction), with self-invested sales amounting to 80.3 billion (down 6%), outperforming the industry average decline of 11% [10]. Sales and Market Position - The company improved its sales ranking to fifth in the industry, with new sales value ranking third [10]. - The average self-invested sales price was 34,984 per square meter, maintaining a high level [10]. - The company acquired 35 new projects in the first half of the year, with a total equity land acquisition amount of approximately 36.2 billion [10]. Financial Health - The average financing cost decreased to 3.60%, down 40 basis points from the previous year, indicating improved financial conditions [10]. - The debt structure has been optimized, with short-term debt accounting for 16.3%, the lowest in history [10]. - The company maintains a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.7, indicating a strong financial position [10]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 1 billion, 1.9 billion, and 4.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of -36%, +88%, and +118% [10]. - The overall performance is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, but operational improvements and brand influence are anticipated to gradually manifest [10].

行业点评 本周 A 股地产、港股物业均上涨，港股地产下跌。本周（8.16-8.22）本周申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为+0.5%， 在各板块中位列第 31；恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为-0.6%，在各板块中位列第 9。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨 跌幅为+1.1%，恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为+0.5%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+4.2%；物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪 深 300 的相对收益分别为+0.7%和-3.1%。 土地市场溢价率有所回落。本周（8.16-8.22）全国 300 城宅地成交建面 553 万㎡，单周环比-14%，单周同比-52%， 平均溢价率 5%。2025 年初至今，全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 23666 万㎡，累计同比-5.4%；年初至今，绿城中国、 中海地产、保利发展、建发房产、滨江集团的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周(8.16-8.22)47 个城市商品房销售 285 万方，成交量环比+8%，同比-11%，整体维持季节性低位；7 月新房售 价环比-0.3%，环比跌幅持平，同比-3.4%，同比降幅持续收窄；结合量价，景气度下行趋缓。本周分能级来看：一线 城市周环比+5%，周同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the levels seen in 2008 and 2014, and is still evolving [3]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [3]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [3]. - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier cities and two-thirds of second-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during sales rebounds [3]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities expected to benefit more from these changes [3]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - The 5-year LPR remains stable at 3.5% as of August, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% [10]. - The real estate index saw a cumulative change of 0.5%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 3.68 percentage points, ranking last among 31 sectors [13]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 1.57 million square meters, a 16.7% increase month-on-month but a 16.1% decrease year-on-year [20]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in the same 30 cities are down 2.1% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a 2.4% increase [25]. Secondary Housing - Secondary home sales in 14 sample cities reached 1.915 million square meters, reflecting a 6.4% month-on-month increase and a 9.5% year-on-year increase [30]. - Cumulative secondary home sales for the year are 6.8677 million square meters, up 16.7% year-on-year [30]. Credit Bonds - In the week of August 18-24, 18 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 15.282 billion yuan, an increase of 6.921 billion yuan from the previous week [39]. - The net financing amount was 3.378 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.2/15.83/12.86 for the years 2025/2026/2027 respectively [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 53.368 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 210 million yuan, down 89.7% year-on-year [2][3]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to uneven delivery schedules and a 22.7% year-on-year drop in recognized area for the first half of 2025 [3]. - Despite the challenges, the company's total contracted sales amounted to 122.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, outperforming the average decline of 11.4% in the top 100 real estate companies [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 53.368 billion yuan, with a significant decline in net profit due to reduced other income and asset impairment losses totaling 1.933 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company’s sales revenue from property sales was 49.651 billion yuan, representing 93.0% of total revenue, which also saw a year-on-year decline of 22.1% [3]. Sales and Market Position - The company maintained a strong market position, ranking fifth in self-invested sales and equity sales, with a focus on core cities where 86% of sales were generated [3][4]. - The sales collection rate remained high at 96%, supporting cash flow and reinvestment [3]. Investment and Land Acquisition - The company added 35 new projects with an equity land acquisition amounting to 36.2 billion yuan, expected to generate a new value of 90.7 billion yuan [4]. - The focus on core cities resulted in 88% of land acquisition value being concentrated in first and second-tier cities, with Hangzhou alone accounting for 47% [4]. Financing and Debt Management - The company successfully issued 7.711 billion yuan in domestic bonds and completed an offshore financing swap of 800 million USD, optimizing its debt structure [4]. - The total interest-bearing debt financing cost was reported at 3.4%, a decrease of 50 basis points year-on-year [4].

Core Points - The company reported a revenue of approximately RMB 53.368 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about RMB 210 million [1] - The company's bank deposits and cash, including pledged bank deposits, reached approximately RMB 66.795 billion, which is 2.9 times the balance of borrowings due within one year, marking a historical high [1] - The debt structure has continued to optimize, with the proportion of short-term debt at 16.3%, the lowest in history [1] - The weighted average interest cost of total borrowings is 3.6%, a decrease of 40 basis points from 4.0% in the same period of 2024 [1] Sales Performance - The company achieved total contract sales of approximately RMB 122.2 billion, ranking second in the industry [1] - Among these, self-invested project sales amounted to about RMB 80.3 billion, and equity sales reached approximately RMB 53.9 billion, both ranking fifth in the industry [1] - The company added 35 new projects with a total construction area of approximately 3.55 million square meters, expected to have a saleable value of about RMB 90.7 billion, ranking third in the industry, with 88% of the value located in first and second-tier cities, indicating structural safety [1]

今年上半年取得总合同销售约1222亿元，位列行业第二；其中，自投项目销售约803亿元，权益销售额 约539亿元，均位列行业第五。 格隆汇8月22日｜绿城中国(3900.HK)公布，截至今年6月底止，中期收入533.68亿元，同比减少 23.28%；盈利2.1亿元，同比下跌89.74%，每股盈利0.08元；不派中期息。 ...

绿城中国(03900)发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月的中期业绩，该集团取得收入人民币533.68亿元(单位 下同)，同比减少23.28%;公司股东应占溢利2.1亿元，同比减少89.74%;每股基本盈利0.08元。 公告称，净利下降主要是受2025年上下半年交付节奏分布不均影响，上半年结转面积同比下降22.7%， 导致收入同比下降。此外，公司今年继续积极推动长库存去化，2025年中期计提相关资产减值损失人民 币19.33亿元，进而影响了股东应占利润。 于2025年6月30日，集团共有土地储备项目158个(包括在建及待建)，总建筑面积约2724万平方米，其中 权益总建筑面积约为1795万平方米;总可售面积约为1817万平方米，权益可售面积约为1181万平方米;平 均楼面地价每平方米约人民币8280元。高能级城市占比较2024年末进一步提升，一二线城市货值占比约 80%，长三角区域占比约64%。 ...

公告称，净利下降主要是受2025年上下半年交付节奏分布不均影响，上半年结转面积同比下降22.7%， 导致收入同比下降。此外，公司今年继续积极推动长库存去化，2025年中期计提相关资产减值损失人民 币19.33亿元，进而影响了股东应占利润。 于2025年6月30日，集团共有土地储备项目158个(包括在建及待建)，总建筑面积约2724万平方米，其中 权益总建筑面积约为1795万平方米;总可售面积约为1817万平方米，权益可售面积约为1181万平方米;平 均楼面地价每平方米约人民币8280元。高能级城市占比较2024年末进一步提升，一二线城市货值占比约 80%，长三角区域占比约64%。 智通财经APP讯，绿城中国(03900)发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月的中期业绩，该集团取得收入人民币 533.68亿元(单位下同)，同比减少23.28%;公司股东应占溢利2.1亿元，同比减少89.74%;每股基本盈利 0.08元。 ...