Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs has led to significant market volatility, with the effective tax rate in the US reaching its highest point in nearly a century, at least 23% [2][4] - The tariffs are expected to increase inflation by approximately two percentage points, raising overall inflation to between 4% and 5%, which complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [8][11] - The market is currently facing liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and concerns regarding the strength of the US dollar, which could impact GDP by at least 0.7 percentage points and reduce profit expectations to around 5% [11][12] Summary by Sections Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - The tariffs have resulted in a uniform 10% baseline tariff on all trade partners, with some partners, like China, facing additional tariffs due to non-tariff barriers [2][4] - Market reactions include a sell-off of high-valuation stocks, a decline in US equities and the dollar, and a rise in bonds and gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][3][5] Future Monetary Policy Framework - Future monetary policy will need to address domestic liquidity and policy space, with central banks potentially taking measures to counteract market volatility caused by tariffs [6] - The liquidity risk can be monitored through indicators like the VIX index, with current issues primarily concentrated in the stock market [7] Inflation and Economic Growth - The tariffs are projected to push inflation higher, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and increasing the risk of stagflation [8][11] - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, including increased competition in the tech sector and the impact of tariffs on cross-border capital flows [9][10] Specific Industry Impacts - The tariffs will significantly affect export-oriented sectors in China, with an overall tariff level exceeding 70% for certain goods, leading to a need for fiscal support to mitigate profit losses [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to face pressure, with potential volatility increasing due to external challenges from the tariffs [13] Long-term Risks and Considerations - The report highlights three main risks: liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and the influence of the dollar on global capital allocation [11] - The reciprocal tariffs may lead to a broader impact on global trade dynamics, affecting specialized supply chains and trade relationships [24]

Core Viewpoint - The asset management business of securities firms has shown signs of recovery in 2024, with a total scale of private asset management reaching 5.47 trillion yuan, marking a 3.0% increase from the previous year. However, challenges remain in improving profitability due to market fluctuations and declining management fees [2][8]. Group 1: Asset Management Scale - By the end of 2024, the asset management scale of major securities firms has generally increased, with CITIC Securities leading at 15,424.46 billion yuan, the only firm surpassing 1.5 trillion yuan [3][4]. - Other top firms include Guotai Junan with 5,884.30 billion yuan and Huatai Securities with 5,562.67 billion yuan [4]. - The growth rate of major firms is relatively low, with CITIC Securities showing an 11.09% increase in the previous year [5]. Group 2: Product Structure Changes - A significant change in product structure is the rapid expansion of collective asset management plans, which reached 2.67 trillion yuan in February 2024, surpassing single asset management plans for ten consecutive months [6]. - CITIC Securities reported a collective asset management plan scale of 3,432.43 billion yuan, a 15.30% increase from 2023 [7]. Group 3: Public Fund License Challenges - Many leading securities firms have not obtained public fund licenses, limiting their product layout and market competitiveness [8]. - The top ten firms in public fund non-cash management scale include Dongfanghong Asset Management and Bank of China International Securities, with only three firms exceeding 100 billion yuan [8]. - The lack of public fund licenses affects the overall profitability of securities firms' asset management businesses [8]. Group 4: Profitability Issues - The overall profitability of securities firms' asset management has significantly declined since the implementation of new regulations in 2018, despite a slight rebound in 2024 [9][12]. - Huatai Securities reported the highest net income from asset management at 3.106 billion yuan, while CITIC Securities and Dongfang Securities followed with 2.322 billion yuan and 1.341 billion yuan, respectively [11]. - The ability to generate income from asset management has decreased, with several firms experiencing declines in net income despite stable or growing management scales [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [2]. Core Insights - The recent notification from the Financial Regulatory Bureau expands the investment scope for insurance funds, allowing direct investments in unlisted companies and broadening the range of investable industries to include technology, big data, and modern agriculture [2]. - As of the end of 2024, the balance of long-term equity investments by insurance funds reached 2.46 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.4% of total investments, suggesting a shift towards equity investments to enhance returns amid declining long-term interest rates [2]. - The report highlights the potential for insurance companies to optimize asset allocation and support the real economy through these new investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,861.50 with a decline of 1.4% during the week of March 31 to April 4, 2025, while the non-bank index closed at 1,763.44, down 1.3% [5]. - The insurance sector saw a slight decline of 0.7%, while the multi-financial sector increased by 0.3% [5]. Non-Bank Industry Insights - The report notes that the insurance sector's performance is influenced by regulatory changes, with a focus on enhancing the investment landscape for insurance funds [2]. - The brokerage sector experienced a decline of 1.78%, with a notable increase in trading activity, as evidenced by a 70.2% year-on-year increase in stock trading volume for Q1 2025 [2]. Key Data Tracking - As of April 3, 2025, the average daily trading volume was 11,014.61 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 27.91% compared to the previous month [35]. - The margin trading balance reached 19,120.12 billion yuan as of April 2, 2025, indicating a growth of 474.29 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [37].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The brokerage industry is experiencing a trend of salary reductions, particularly among executives, due to regulatory pressures and declining performance in investment banking activities [1][2][7]. Group 1: Salary Trends - As of April 3, 2024, 24 listed brokerages reported a total management salary of 380 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 198 million yuan, representing a decline of 34.25% year-on-year [1]. - Among the 24 brokerages, 13 reported an increase in average salary compared to the previous year, with a notable increase of 30.87% in Huazhong Securities, where average salary rose from 269,400 yuan to 352,500 yuan [3]. - Major brokerages like CITIC Securities, CICC, and Guotai Junan saw average salaries drop by 1.53%, 8.26%, and 17.05% respectively [3]. Group 2: Impact of Regulatory Changes - The regulatory environment has been pushing brokerages to strengthen salary management, with many executives' salaries falling below 3 million yuan, except for Dongfang Fortune [2]. - The tightening of IPO approvals has significantly impacted investment banking revenues, leading to a reduction in workforce and salaries in this sector [4][5]. Group 3: Business Performance and Adjustments - The investment banking sector is under pressure, with a record 436 IPO rejections in 2024, leading to a reduction in personnel by up to 25% in some firms [5][7]. - Brokerages are adopting various cost-cutting measures, including reallocating staff from equity to bond business and reducing performance-linked bonuses [6]. - The decline in revenue from investment banking and public fund commission reductions has led to increased competition in research departments, further impacting salaries [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - While short-term salary reductions may cause discomfort, they are expected to benefit the financial industry's long-term health by lowering operational costs and enhancing risk management awareness [8].

宏观视点 中国的绿色产业在全球处于领先位置，近期DeepSeek的突破令各界重新审视中国的AI发展水平和创新 能力，另一方面，需求疲弱仍然是经济面临的突出问题。如何理解这组反差？宏观上可以总结为从规 模不经济走向规模新经济。绿色和数字经济是规模新经济的突出代表，不仅体现在大规模生产降低单 位成本，更重要的是规模经济促进创新的动态过程。中国处于一个独特的地位，既可得益于发展差距 带来的追赶效应，也拥有大国规模经济促进创新的优势。 但发挥规模经济效应面临两方面的挑战。内部来讲，从金融周期上半场的繁荣到下半场的调整，虽然 房地产的规模不经济属性在供给侧对生产力的抑制下降，但其作为信贷抵押品的角色在需求侧带来债 务紧缩压力，需求不足阻碍了规模经济效应的充分发挥。外部来讲，在新的地缘经济形势下，中美合 作的"G2模式"遭到挑战，中国面临纵向"卡脖子"和横向"去中心化"压力，前者不利于追赶，后者不利 于发挥规模经济效应，尤其是美国的关税政策加剧中国的需求不足问题。 应对挑战的关键是促进科技创新与产业创新融合发展，减少对过去产业创新形成的"重供给与资产"的 路径依赖，以"重需求与人才"促进科技创新。在财政层面，在政府对研发 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國國際金融股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年4月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03908 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,903,714,428 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,903,714,428 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,903,714,428 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,903,714,428 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | ...

中国国际金融股份有限公司、中信证券股份有限公司 关于中国移动有限公司 首次公开发行A股股票并上市之 保荐总结报告书 经中国证券监督管理委员会（以下简称"中国证监会"） 《关于核准中国移动 （证监许可〔2021〕3902 号）核准，中国移 有限公司首次公开发行股票的批复》 动有限公司（以下简称"中国移动"或"公司"）首次公开发行普通股（A 股） 股票的每股发行价为人民币 57.58 元，初始发行数量为 845,700,000 股（行使超 额配售选择权之前），行使超额配售选择权后最终发行数量为 902,767,867 股。本 次发行最终募集资金总额为 51,981,373,781.86 元，扣除发行费用 607,494,314.12 元后，募集资金净额为 51,373,879,467.74 元。 中国国际金融股份有限公司（以下简称"中金公司"、 "联席保荐机构"）、中 信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"、"联席保荐机构"）担任中国移动 本次 A 股发行的联席保荐机构，于上市之日起对公司进行持续督导工作，持续 督导期至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止。截至目前，持续督导期已届满，现根据《证券 《上海证券交 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company continues to solidify its wealth management business while maintaining its leading position in investment banking despite facing pressure across various business lines. The long-term outlook remains positive due to its strong fee-based services and balance sheet management capabilities, which are expected to enhance ROE steadily through client-driven and wealth management businesses [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21.33 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.69 billion, reflecting year-on-year declines of 7.2% and 7.5% respectively. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) decreased by 0.91 percentage points to 5.52% [6][10]. - Revenue breakdown by business lines includes brokerage at 4.26 billion, investment banking at 3.09 billion, asset management at 1.21 billion, and proprietary trading at 10.11 billion, with year-on-year changes of -5.9%, -16.4%, -0.3%, and -4.5% respectively [10]. Wealth Management and Client Base - The company has nearly 8.5 million wealth management clients, with client account assets reaching 3.18 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. The product scale of wealth management has seen continuous growth over five years, now nearing 370 billion [10]. - The company’s financial product distribution scale and revenue were 274.755 billion and 8.90 billion respectively, showing declines of 19.2% and 29.1% year-on-year [10]. Cross-Border Business and Market Position - The influence of cross-border business continues to grow, with the company maintaining the top market share for QFII clients for 21 consecutive years. It also leads in the Hong Kong stock trading market among Chinese brokers [10]. - The company was recognized as one of the first market makers in the "HKD-CNY dual counter model" and received the "Most Active RMB Counter Market Maker" award from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, contributing to RMB internationalization [10]. Underwriting and Asset Management - The company remains a leader in equity and bond underwriting, with A-share equity financing of 15.939 billion, down 83% year-on-year, while Hong Kong equity financing reached 5.08 billion USD, up 197% year-on-year [10]. - The domestic bond underwriting scale was 711.224 billion, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, while the overseas bond underwriting scale was 5.266 billion USD, up 61.5% year-on-year [10]. Asset Expansion and Investment Returns - The company’s financial asset scale increased by 3.9% year-on-year to 363.877 billion, with an estimated investment return rate of 2.78%, down 0.25 percentage points [10]. - Long-term prospects remain optimistic, with expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 at 6.547 billion and 7.303 billion respectively, corresponding to H-share P/E ratios of 10.32 and 9.25, and P/B ratios of 0.55 and 0.52 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. debt ceiling on Treasury supply and liquidity, predicting a potential increase in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8% after the debt ceiling issue is resolved, driven by supply-demand imbalances and resilient inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Policy Analysis - Since mid-January, the debt ceiling has limited Treasury supply, leading to a liquidity turning point and a decrease in the 10-year yield from 4.8% to around 4.2% [1]. - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has negatively impacted market confidence, but recent data suggests economic resilience, with stable housing demand and a rebound in job creation [4][14]. - The article anticipates that the pessimistic sentiment regarding the economy may bottom out in the second quarter, aided by the potential implementation of tax cuts and deregulation policies [4][5]. Group 2: Fiscal Outlook - The fiscal deficit has not shown signs of reduction, with the cumulative deficit for the first five months of the fiscal year reaching $1.15 trillion, compared to $828.1 billion in the same period last year [18][20]. - The proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill" could further increase the deficit, with a projected net increase of approximately $2.8 trillion in the basic deficit by 2034 [24][25]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Liquidity Risks - The article highlights that the debt ceiling has led to a tightening of liquidity, with the Federal Reserve preparing for potential liquidity risks as the debt ceiling is expected to be resolved by June [27][28]. - The Fed has already begun to slow down its balance sheet reduction, decreasing the monthly reduction from $250 billion to $50 billion [28]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of Treasuries is expected to increase post-debt ceiling resolution, with projected net financing of approximately $1.4 trillion in the third quarter [27][33]. - Demand for Treasuries remains weak, with significant reliance on money market funds, while foreign demand has decreased, particularly from key countries like Japan and the UK [36][39]. Group 5: Interest Rate Projections - The article predicts that long-term interest rates will continue to rise, potentially exceeding 4.8% after the debt ceiling is resolved, due to increased supply and persistent demand shortages [45][46]. - The anticipated economic recovery and potential tax cuts may support higher nominal growth rates, which could lead to an increase in interest rates [47][58].

Core Insights - The ABS market in Q1 2025 saw a significant increase in new issuances, with 462 projects totaling 397.5 billion yuan, marking a 31% year-on-year growth compared to 304.4 billion yuan in the same quarter last year [5][7][9]. Market Overview - As of March 31, 2025, the cumulative market size reached approximately 3,217.3 billion yuan, with credit ABS at 418.2 billion yuan, enterprise ABS at 1,991.9 billion yuan, ABN at 629.5 billion yuan, and public REITs at 177.7 billion yuan [3]. New Issuance Statistics - In Q1 2025, the credit ABS market had 29 new issuances totaling 22.8 billion yuan, a 40% decrease year-on-year. The largest share came from non-performing loans with 24 issuances totaling 11.2 billion yuan, followed by personal auto loans with 2 issuances totaling 7.2 billion yuan [7][9]. - The enterprise ABS sector performed strongly with 307 issuances totaling 263.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 38% increase year-on-year. The leading segment was financing lease receivables with 61 issuances totaling 65.7 billion yuan, followed by general small loan receivables with 55 issuances totaling 49.7 billion yuan [9][11]. - The ABN market also showed significant growth, with 120 issuances totaling 101 billion yuan, a substantial 59% increase year-on-year. Notably, bank/internet consumer loans accounted for 22 issuances totaling 18.5 billion yuan [11]. Underwriting Performance - In Q1 2025, Guotai Junan led the ABS underwriting rankings with 88 projects totaling 39.81 billion yuan, followed closely by CITIC Securities with 94 projects totaling 39.46 billion yuan, and Ping An Securities with 52 projects totaling 36.55 billion yuan [15][16]. Detailed Underwriting Rankings - For credit ABS, China Merchants Securities topped the rankings with 17 projects totaling 3.84 billion yuan, followed by CITIC Securities with 14 projects totaling 3.19 billion yuan [20][21]. - In the enterprise ABS segment, Ping An Securities led with 46 projects totaling 35.10 billion yuan, while Guotai Junan followed with 68 projects totaling 34.61 billion yuan [23][24]. - In the ABN market, China Merchants Securities again led with 19 projects totaling 10.23 billion yuan, followed by Jiangsu Bank with 35 projects totaling 9.15 billion yuan [25][26]. Asset Class Rankings - The top three asset classes by issuance volume were financing lease receivables, general small loan receivables, and bank/internet consumer loans, with significant underwriting contributions from various institutions [28]. - For financing lease ABS, Ping An Securities led with 15.83 billion yuan, followed by Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities [28]. - In general small loan ABS, Guotai Junan was the top underwriter with 7.76 billion yuan, while China Merchants Securities and CITIC Securities followed [30]. - For bank/internet consumer loans, China Merchants Securities led with 9.75 billion yuan, with CICC and Jiangsu Bank in second and third places [32]. Institutional Rankings - In the credit ABS market, Jianxin Trust led with 6.85 billion yuan from 7 projects, followed by Shanghai International Trust and Huaneng Guicheng Trust [38]. - In the enterprise ABS market, CITIC Trust topped the rankings with 21 billion yuan from 20 projects, followed by Shenghe Factoring and Far East Leasing [40]. - For the ABN market, Guotai Junan Trust led with 22.82 billion yuan from 26 projects, followed by Huaneng Guicheng Trust and Huaxin International Trust [48]. Public REITs Market - In the public REITs sector, Shenzhen Jiafeng Industrial Park Management led with 3.29 billion yuan, followed by Fujian Huawei Rural Commercial Group and Jinan Thermal Power Group [50][51].