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中金公司研究部首席策略分析师、部门执行负责人缪延亮在2025中国金融学会学术年会暨中国金融论坛年会上的演讲
Core Viewpoint - The presentation by the chief strategist of CICC highlights the evolution of the international monetary system and the potential for the renminbi to become a central currency, driven by various economic and institutional forces [3][4][8]. Group 1: Historical Context of Currency - Currency exhibits a natural order characterized by a "center-periphery" structure, with the US dollar currently in a central position following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system [3]. - The stability of this order is evident, as historical central currencies like the pound and dollar have maintained their status for over a century [4]. - The transition of central currencies is not fixed, with historical shifts from the Spanish dollar to the Dutch guilder, then to the pound, and finally to the dollar [4]. Group 2: Forces Driving Currency Evolution - The first force is economic strength, where a larger economy with significant trade volume is more likely to become a central currency [5]. - The second force is the robustness of financial markets, which are essential for establishing trust in a currency on the international stage [5]. - The third force is institutional credibility, such as property rights protection, which underpins trust in a central currency [6]. - The fourth force is technological advancement, which has historically transformed currency forms and payment systems [6]. - A debated fifth force is military power, which some argue can protect but not create currency credibility [6]. Group 3: Stability of Central Currencies - The strong network effects of these forces create inertia, making established currencies difficult to displace [7]. - These forces are interrelated, enhancing each other and raising barriers to entry for new central currencies [7]. - Existing central currencies can leverage their influence through institutional arrangements to maintain their status [7]. Group 4: Current Context for Renminbi - The current economic conditions suggest a potential shift, as China has surpassed the US in purchasing power parity (PPP) and has the largest trade volume [9]. - The US dollar's status as a safe asset is showing signs of strain, with changes in asset correlations indicating a weakening of its traditional role [9]. - The need for the renminbi to float more freely is emphasized, as this would facilitate its use in international trade and finance [10]. Group 5: Recommendations for Renminbi Internationalization - The development of both onshore and offshore financial markets is crucial, focusing on liquidity coordination and cross-border financial product innovation [10]. - Increasing the openness of China's capital account is necessary to enhance investor confidence and facilitate international transactions [11].
科技焕新 超越增长
Group 1 - The article discusses the new global positioning of China, emphasizing the competitive landscape and the opportunities for Chinese companies to expand internationally [1] - Key leaders from various industries, such as TCL and GCL Group, highlight the importance of leveraging China's manufacturing advantages to break through domestic competition and achieve global influence [1] - The article also mentions the awakening of consumer demand in China, with experts suggesting measures to stabilize income growth and boost consumption [1] Group 2 - The article outlines the transformation of traditional and emerging industries in China, with leaders from companies like UBTECH and CloudWalk discussing advancements in robotics and technology [1] - It highlights the anticipated growth in commercial aerospace and the automotive market, indicating a shift away from previous trends [1] - The focus on innovation in the pharmaceutical sector is noted, with a transition from explosive growth to sustained development in authorized drug transactions [2]
50家券商主承销绿色债券1674亿 头部机构双核驱动领跑绿色金融
Chang Jiang Shang Bao· 2025-12-30 23:22
长江商报消息 作为金融市场的重要中介和参与者,证券公司在ESG发展中扮演着双核心角色。一方 面,证券公司自身作为企业需要践行ESG。另一方面,作为资本市场的看门人和引导者,证券公司在推 动整个经济体系的ESG转型方面发挥重要作用。 特别是头部券商依旧发挥引领作用,如中信证券、中金公司、华泰证券、国泰君安、招商证券等,在 ESG战略、业务整合、报告质量上处于领先地位,并设立了专门的ESG职能部门。 长江商报资本战略研究院注意到,在"双碳"目标引领下,证券公司在环境(E)领域,尤其是绿色金融 相关业务中进展显著、成果突出。 根据中国证券业协会发布的数据,2024年,作为绿色债券主承销商(或资产证券化产品管理人)的证券 公司共50家,承销(或管理)148只债券(或产品),合计金额1674.05亿元。其中,资产证券化产品69 只,合计金额961.64亿元。 从具体机构看,头部券商表现尤为活跃。2024年,中信建投、中信证券、中金公司主承销(或管理)绿 色债券(或资产证券化产品)的规模分别为391.99亿元、263.72亿元、89.56亿元。 以中信证券为例,2024年,中信证券共承销绿色债券(含碳中和)517亿元,承 ...
专访中金公司总裁王曙光:中国投行何以竞逐全球定价权
导读:中国投行跻身国际一流投行的当务之急在于"锻内功、转思维",转向价值创造。 当前,我国正加速迈向"金融强国"的新征程。作为资本市场的核心中介与关键枢纽,证券行业被赋予更 高期望:不仅要更高效地服务实体经济,还要在全球金融舞台上争取更大话语权。如何平衡"立足本 土"与"竞逐全球"这双重使命,成为券业发展的重要议题。 近日,21世纪经济报道记者专访了中金公司党委副书记、副董事长、总裁王曙光。他明确指出,服务国 内实体经济与争夺全球金融定价权是"双向赋能"、协同共进的关系。唯有深耕本土,才能锻造国际竞争 的核心能力;同时,只有争取全球定价权,才能反哺国内高质量发展。 面向更宏伟的全球愿景,王曙光认为,中国投行跻身国际一流投行的当务之急在于"锻内功、转思维", 转向价值创造,全力弥补在深度研究、协同服务、全球风控与高端人才等方面的关键短板。 尤为值得关注的是,在王曙光看来,中国投行对全球金融秩序更深层次的贡献,并非简单的定价权争 夺,而在于将中国市场实践中形成的、强调金融与实体经济深度融合的"赋能型"发展范式,以开放合作 的姿态贡献于世界,推动全球金融治理体系朝着更加包容、均衡和可持续的方向演进。这一系列判断, ...
六大案例看2025券商并购大年: 强强合并重塑行业格局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 17:20
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of mergers and acquisitions in the Chinese securities industry, highlighting significant cases and the regulatory environment that encourages the formation of influential financial institutions by 2025 [1]. Group 1: Major Mergers and Acquisitions - Guolian Minsheng Securities officially rebranded after merging, reporting a revenue of 4.011 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.127 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 269.4% and 1185.19% respectively [2]. - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, which became Guotai Haitong, is noted as the largest A+H market merger in Chinese capital market history, with Guotai Haitong achieving a net profit of 15.737 billion yuan in the first half of the year, surpassing CITIC Securities [4]. - The merger between Zhejiang Securities and Guodu Securities is progressing, with Zhejiang Securities establishing control over Guodu Securities through a series of share acquisitions [5][6]. Group 2: Regulatory Approvals and Market Impact - The merger of Xibu Securities and Guorong Securities received regulatory approval, with Xibu Securities planning to acquire a 64.5961% stake for 3.3217 yuan per share, totaling 3.825 billion yuan [8]. - The acquisition of Wanhe Securities by Guosen Securities was approved, with Guosen Securities aiming to gain control over Wanhe Securities, which has significantly smaller assets and profits compared to Guosen [9][10]. - Central Huijin's stake in CICC will increase to 1.936 billion shares post-merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, maintaining its status as the controlling shareholder [13].
最新投行评价结果出炉,A类12家
第一财经· 2025-12-30 13:38
Core Viewpoint - The Securities Association of China released the performance evaluation results for investment banking, bond underwriting, and financial advisory services for the year 2024, indicating a total of 93 securities firms engaged in investment banking, with 12 classified as A-level, 66 as B-level, and 15 as C-level [1][10]. Investment Banking - Among the 93 securities firms involved in investment banking, 12 firms received an A classification, including Dongwu Securities, Guojin Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities [1][3]. - The majority of firms, 66, were classified as B, while 15 firms were rated C [1][10]. Bond Underwriting - For the bond underwriting and entrusted management business, 95 securities firms were evaluated, with 14 classified as A, 62 as B, and 19 as C [5][7]. - A-level firms in this category include Caixin Securities, Dongwu Securities, and Guotai Junan [5][7]. Financial Advisory - In the financial advisory sector, 30 securities firms were evaluated, with 5 classified as A, 19 as B, and 6 as C [5][10]. - A-level firms in financial advisory include Huatai United and Galaxy Securities [8][9]. Overall Evaluation - The evaluation results reflect the overall quality of practice among the firms and align with market expectations, promoting improvements in operational quality, internal control, and service capabilities [10].
每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-12-30)
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 11:24
Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - UBS raised its gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce by the first three quarters of 2026, expecting a decline to $4,800 by the end of 2026, driven by low real yields and ongoing global economic concerns [1] - HDFC Securities noted that gold and silver are in an overbought territory, indicating potential for further price corrections as traders take profits after record highs [1] - UBS suggested that if political or financial risks increase, gold prices could rise to $5,400 per ounce, up from a previous forecast of $4,900 [1] Group 2: Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - CITIC Securities reported that the lithium iron phosphate industry is expected to reach a cyclical turning point in profitability, with global shipments projected to reach 5.25 million tons by 2026, a year-on-year increase of 36% [1] - The report highlighted that demand is driven by increased penetration in the power sector and high demand for energy storage, while supply growth is expected to be limited [1] Group 3: Commercial Aerospace and Graphite Fiber - CITIC Securities indicated that the commercial aerospace sector is experiencing high prosperity, driven by policies, technology, and market demand [2] - The demand for lightweight rocket and satellite structures is increasing, leading to higher requirements for graphite fiber, which is expected to see further penetration in the market [2] Group 4: Collagen Industry - CITIC Securities stated that the natural and recombinant collagen industry is still in a period of dividends, with ongoing advancements in technology and applications [3][4] - The increasing number of approved collagen products is expected to expand the market, providing opportunities for companies to capture market share [3][4] Group 5: Chinese Securities Industry - CICC reported that the Chinese securities industry is poised for growth, benefiting from economic development and capital market reforms, with leading firms expected to enhance their capabilities [5] - The report forecasts a 12% year-on-year increase in profitability for the industry by 2026, with varying growth rates across different business lines [5] Group 6: Wind Power Equipment Industry - CICC projected optimistic growth for the wind power equipment industry, with domestic and overseas demand expected to rise [5] - The report estimates that domestic wind power installations could reach 130-140 GW in 2026, continuing growth from a high base in 2025 [5]
张宁:券商出海迎来机遇窗口期,叩开新增长的希望之门
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 09:50
Core Viewpoint - The globalization of China's industrial chain and the increasing demand for cross-border asset allocation by domestic institutions and residents, along with the deepening of China's capital market opening policies, provide favorable opportunities and strong momentum for the development of international business by domestic securities firms [1] Group 1: Historical Development Opportunities for Securities Firms - The internationalization of China's industrial chain has significantly increased the demand for cross-border financial services, with non-financial direct investment by domestic investors abroad expected to reach USD 143.9 billion in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 10.54% [2] - Over 50% of A-share companies have disclosed overseas business income, indicating that going global is now a common phenomenon, with 33.36% of listed companies having over 30% of their income from overseas [2] Group 2: Growth in Cross-Border Investment Demand - The cross-border investment demand from institutions and residents has been strong, with foreign securities investment assets increasing from USD 1019.6 billion to USD 1694.1 billion from mid-2022 to mid-2025, reflecting an annual compound growth rate of 18.44% [6] - Foreign institutions' investment in domestic securities has also grown, with the market value of foreign holdings in domestic stocks and securities rising from USD 737.5 billion to USD 1071.8 billion from mid-2020 to mid-2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.76% [6] Group 3: Capital Market Opening and Securities Firms' Internationalization - China's accelerated financial market opening has created a favorable policy environment for the internationalization of securities firms, with various mutual recognition and cross-border financial policies being implemented [7] - The trading volume of the Hong Kong Stock Connect has increased from CNY 620.4 billion in 2015 to CNY 16.27 trillion by the end of 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 38.64% [7] Group 4: Market Landscape and Development Prospects of Securities Firms' International Business - Securities firms' international business encompasses various lines, including cross-border brokerage, wealth management, asset management, proprietary trading, and emerging digital asset businesses, with significant growth potential [9] Group 5: Cross-Border Brokerage and Trading Business - Chinese securities firms provide cross-border trading channels for clients, utilizing overseas subsidiaries to offer access to foreign stocks, bonds, and derivatives [10] Group 6: Cross-Border Wealth Management Business - The cross-border wealth management business is becoming a key development direction for securities firms, driven by the increasing demand for diversified asset allocation among Chinese residents [15] - The cross-border wealth management products of leading firms like CITIC Securities have seen rapid growth, with overseas product sales reaching USD 8.7 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 151% [17] Group 7: Cross-Border Asset Management Business - The global asset management industry is increasingly focusing on cross-border asset management to capture growth cycles and interest rate differentials across different economies [19] Group 8: Overseas Investment Banking Business - Hong Kong serves as a critical hub for domestic securities firms' overseas investment banking activities, with supportive policies for mainland companies listing in Hong Kong [24] - The scale of equity financing in Hong Kong has significantly increased, with the total equity financing amount reaching HKD 590.6 billion in 2025, 3.26 times that of 2024 [25] Group 9: Overseas Proprietary Business - The overseas proprietary business has become a core profit source for leading securities firms, with a significant portion of their fixed-income investments being allocated to overseas markets [29] Group 10: Second Growth Curve for Securities Firms' International Business - The international business of securities firms is becoming an important revenue component, with firms like Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities showing strong growth in overseas business income [32] - The return on equity (ROE) for international subsidiaries of firms like CITIC Securities is significantly higher than their overall ROE, indicating better profit generation capabilities [34]
双欣环保上市首日涨187.3% 募资19.66亿元中金公司建功
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-12-30 09:47
Core Viewpoint - Shuangxin Environmental Protection (001369.SZ) was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with a first-day closing price of 19.68 yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 187.30% from the issue price of 6.85 yuan [1] Group 1: IPO Details - The company issued a total of 287 million shares, accounting for 25.02% of the total share capital post-issue, with no existing shareholders selling shares [1] - The total amount raised from the IPO was 196,595 million yuan, with a net amount of 179,982.55 million yuan after deducting issuance costs of 16,612.45 million yuan [1] - The final raised funds were 6,555.79 million yuan less than the original plan of 186,538.34 million yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Utilization - The raised funds will be allocated to several projects, including the annual production of 16,000 tons of PVB resin and functional films, 60,000 tons of water-based adhesives, energy-saving technology upgrades in the PVA industry chain, and construction of a research and development center [1] - Additional funds will also support the construction of pilot testing facilities for PVA products and supplement working capital [1] Group 3: Underwriting Information - The sponsor for the IPO was China International Capital Corporation, with representatives Zhou Bin and Zhao Huan [2] - The total issuance costs (excluding VAT) amounted to 16,612.45 million yuan, with an issuance cost per share of 0.58 yuan, including underwriting fees of 13,671.22 million yuan [2]
中金公司(03908) - 海外监管公告 - 2022年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券(第一期)(品...
2025-12-30 09:42
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責,對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China International Capital Corporation Limited 中 國 國 際 金 融 股 份 有 限 公 司 (於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司) (股份代號:03908) 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作出。 茲載列中國國際金融股份有限公司(「本公司」)在上海證券交易所網站刊登的本公司2022 年面向專業投資者公開發行公司債券(第一期)(品種一)2025年債券轉售實施結果公告, 僅供參閱。 承董事會命 中國國際金融股份有限公司 董事會秘書 孫男 中國,北京 2025年12月30日 於本公告日期,本公司執行董事為陳亮先生及王曙光先生;非執行董事為張薇女士、 孔令岩先生及田汀女士;以及獨立非執行董事為吳港平先生、陸正飛先生、彼得 • 諾蘭先 生及周禹先生。 ٪ࡨԓ⸱˖138664 ٪ࡨㆰ〠˖22 ѝ䠁 G1 ѣളള䱻䠇 ...