国泰海通表示，宏观情绪调整叠加英伟达修正数据中心铜需求量，短期铜价震荡承压。然铜矿供给仍旧 紧张，现货铜精矿加工费持续下跌，AI和电网建设带来的需求逻辑仍在，近期国家电网表示十五五期 间固定资产投资预计为4万亿，较十四五增长40%。同时海内外流动性宽松的趋势未变，为铜价提供有 力支撑。 铜业股跌幅居前，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)跌12.45%，报15.96港元；江西铜业（600362）股份 (00358)跌9.2%，报47.94港元；五矿资源(01208)跌8.71%，报10.38港元；洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)跌 6.84%，报22.62港元。 消息面上，近日，微软公布第二财季财报显示，该公司季度资本支出飙升至历史新高，同时云业务销售 增速放缓，引发投资者担忧其在人工智能领域的大规模投入可能需要比预期更长的时间才能见效。银河 期货市场观点认为，前期金银快速拉涨后，铜价跟随相对缓慢，铜矿扰动成为本轮上涨的导火索，在情 绪的资金的加持下，夜盘国内最高触及114160元/吨。之后由于微软、甲骨文等AI股暴跌，多头资金快 去离场，铜价收回日内全部涨幅，最低跌至104550元/吨。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，铜业股跌幅居前，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)跌12.45%，报15.96港元；江西 铜业股份(00358)跌9.2%，报47.94港元；五矿资源(01208)跌8.71%，报10.38港元；洛阳钼业(03993)跌 6.84%，报22.62港元。 消息面上，近日，微软公布第二财季财报显示，该公司季度资本支出飙升至历史新高，同时云业务销售 增速放缓，引发投资者担忧其在人工智能领域的大规模投入可能需要比预期更长的时间才能见效。银河 期货市场观点认为，前期金银快速拉涨后，铜价跟随相对缓慢，铜矿扰动成为本轮上涨的导火索，在情 绪的资金的加持下，夜盘国内最高触及114160元/吨。之后由于微软、甲骨文等AI股暴跌，多头资金快 去离场，铜价收回日内全部涨幅，最低跌至104550元/吨。 国泰海通表示，宏观情绪调整叠加英伟达修正数据中心铜需求量，短期铜价震荡承压。然铜矿供给仍旧 紧张，现货铜精矿加工费持续下跌，AI和电网建设带来的需求逻辑仍在，近期国家电网表示十五五期 间固定资产投资预计为4万亿，较十四五增长40%。同时海内外流动性宽松的趋势未变，为铜价提供有 力支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, with notable declines in share prices across multiple sectors, particularly in the rare metals and non-ferrous metals industries [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - BlueFocus Media experienced a fund outflow of 1.638 billion yuan, with a share price decline of 3.59% [2] - Northern Rare Earth saw a fund outflow of 1.321 billion yuan, with a share price drop of 8.72% [2] - Zijin Mining reported a fund outflow of 1.256 billion yuan, with a decrease in share price of 8.33% [2] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals had a fund outflow of 1.232 billion yuan, with a share price decline of 10.01% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum experienced a fund outflow of 1.128 billion yuan, with a share price drop of 9.21% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The rare metals sector, represented by Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum, is facing significant fund outflows and price declines [2][3] - The non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals, is also experiencing substantial outflows, indicating potential challenges in this industry [2][3] - The energy metals sector, represented by Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, shows notable fund outflows, with share price declines of 8% and 7.46% respectively [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of funds with "cyclical" in their names has shown significant divergence over the past year, reflecting varying investment strategies and raising questions about fund positioning and active management capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Discrepancies - Over 60 funds in the market have "cyclical" in their names, with 9 funds achieving returns exceeding 100% in the past year, while 17 funds had returns below 50%, some even negative [2]. - The top holdings of high-performing funds, such as Changcheng Cyclical Preferred A, are predominantly in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a concentrated investment strategy [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Funds with lower returns have diversified their holdings across multiple cyclical sectors, such as machinery, chemicals, and power, rather than focusing solely on non-ferrous metals [3]. - The concentration in specific sectors, like non-ferrous metals, has been driven by both research outcomes and market demand, with some investors opting for active equity funds to capture sectoral beta and stock alpha [4]. Group 3: Market Perspectives - There are mixed views on the strategy of concentrating investments in a single sector, with some experts noting that it can lead to high returns during favorable market conditions but increases risk during downturns [4][5]. - The strategy of heavy concentration can amplify both risk and return characteristics, necessitating a higher risk tolerance and timing ability from investors [5]. Group 4: Responsibilities of Fund Managers - Fund companies are expected to manage risks associated with concentrated strategies and provide clear communication and education to investors regarding potential risks and returns [6][7]. - A dynamic risk management mechanism is recommended to monitor portfolio concentration and sectoral performance, along with proactive communication of investment logic and fundamental changes [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** sector, particularly the **metals** industry, highlighting a tight year for metals [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cement Production**: Expected output in December 2025 is projected at **144 million tons**, reflecting a **6.6% YoY decline**. The total output for 2025 is estimated at **1,693 million tons**, down **6.9% YoY** [6][6]. - **Finished Steel**: Anticipated output for December 2025 is **115 million tons**, with a **3.8% YoY decrease**. The total for 2025 is **1,446 million tons**, showing a **3.1% YoY increase** [6][6]. - **Crude Steel**: Projected output for December 2025 is **68 million tons**, down **10.3% YoY**, with a total of **961 million tons** for 2025, a **4.4% YoY decline** [6][6]. - **Aluminum Production**: December 2025 output is expected to be **4 million tons**, a **3.0% YoY increase**, with a total of **45 million tons** for 2025, reflecting a **2.4% YoY increase** [6][6]. - **Copper Production**: December 2025 output is projected at **440,000 tons**, down **21.4% YoY**, with a total of **5,320,000 tons** for 2025, a **6% YoY decline** [6][6]. - **Automobile Production**: December 2025 output is expected to be **3 million units**, down **2.8% YoY**, while total production for 2025 is projected at **35 million units**, up **9.8% YoY** [6][6]. - **Electricity Generation**: Expected to reach **859 billion KWh** in December 2025, with a **0.1% YoY increase** and a total of **9,716 billion KWh** for 2025, reflecting a **2.2% YoY increase** [6][6]. Policy Changes - The **2026 Trade-in Subsidy Policy** for automobiles will see a reduction in the first tranche of fund allocation from **Rmb 81 billion** in 2025 to **Rmb 62.5 billion** in 2026 [8][8]. - Subsidies for **New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)** will shift from a fixed amount to a percentage of the vehicle price, capped at **Rmb 20,000** [8][8]. Real Estate Market Insights - **Residential Sales Value**: Expected to decline to **Rmb 11,662 billion** in 2023, down **6.5% YoY**, with a recovery projected to **Rmb 14,997 billion** in 2025 [10][10]. - **New Residential Starts**: Anticipated to decrease to **1,989 million sqm** in 2024, with a further decline to **954 million sqm** in 2025 [10][10]. - **Average Selling Price**: Expected to stabilize around **Rmb 10,442 per sqm** in 2025, reflecting a **0.7% YoY increase** [10][10]. Additional Insights - The **mining sector** is projected to see a **5.4% YoY increase** in added value, while the **ferrous metals** sector is expected to grow by **0.7% YoY** [6][6]. - The **non-ferrous metals** sector is anticipated to grow by **4.8% YoY** [6][6]. - **Investment in Property**: Expected to decline significantly, with a total of **Rmb 420 billion** in 2025, down **36.8% YoY** [6][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the metals and real estate sectors in China.

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a remarkable performance from the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which has surged over 35% in less than a month since the beginning of 2026, showcasing its strong momentum and dominance in the market [1][6]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index has outperformed other major non-ferrous indices, achieving a return of 159.49% since the beginning of 2025, compared to 145.36% for industrial non-ferrous, 141.56% for segmented non-ferrous, and 129.97% for non-ferrous metals overall [3]. - The index's unique "hardcore" compilation logic focuses on companies that own non-ferrous metal resources, allowing them to maximize profit margins during price increases, thus demonstrating higher profit elasticity compared to downstream sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Index Composition and Strategy - The index employs a balanced industry approach, covering all core metal categories such as copper, gold, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, while ensuring that the top three companies by market capitalization in each segment are included, which helps capture various metal price movements and diversifies risk [4]. - The index is concentrated on leading companies, with a maximum of 40 constituent stocks, where the top ten account for over 55% of the total weight, ensuring strong offensive capability and elasticity during market rallies [4][5]. Group 3: Key Metal Allocations - The index's composition is strategically aligned with national priorities and future industry trends, with copper (31.48%) benefiting from global energy transitions and AI infrastructure, gold (14.33%) serving as a hedge against currency fluctuations, and aluminum (11.56%) supporting green transitions in the automotive and construction sectors [5]. - Other metals like silver (0.75%), rare earths (9.97%), lithium (8.17%), and cobalt (5.69%) are also included, reflecting a comprehensive approach to capturing cyclical fluctuations and participating in industrial transformations [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market environment presents a historic opportunity for the non-ferrous sector, driven by monetary easing, supply-demand dynamics, and global order changes, making the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index and its corresponding ETF products an efficient and transparent tool for investors to gain exposure to leading companies in the upstream non-ferrous mining sector [6].

高盛全球大宗商品研究团队在1月28日发布的报告中，显著上调了对黄金与铜两大关键金属的价格预 测，预计将直接驱动中国相关矿业企业的盈利预期系统性上修。报告指出，资源稀缺性溢价已实质性显 现。 据追风交易台，报告将2026年基准黄金目标价格上调10%-16%，预计当年均价可达4978美元/盎司；同 时将2026年LME铜价预测提升7%至12200美元/吨。基于上述价格调整，高盛相应将覆盖范围内的中国 铜与黄金企业2026-2027年盈利预测上调9%-33%。 研报强调，具备显著产量增长潜力的龙头企业将同时享受价格上行与产能扩张的双重红利，预计2026年 部分企业铜产量增幅可达9%-14%。从估值角度看，当前股价水平仍普遍反映较为保守的大宗商品价格 预期，若长期目标价位逐步兑现，当前板块估值具备明显安全边际与上行空间。 结构性配置推升金价，资金流入铸就铜稀缺溢价 高盛全球团队最新研究指出，大宗商品市场正步入结构性重估阶段，尤其体现在贵金属与工业金属领 域。 黄金方面，团队将2026年均价预测上调10%至4978美元/盎司，并将2027年上半年均价预测大幅调升16% 至5585美元/盎司。高盛分析指出，此前报告提示的 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for 2026 to 2027 by 10% to 16%, expecting an average price of $4,978 per ounce in 2026 and $5,585 per ounce in the first half of 2027 [1] - The firm also increased its copper price forecast for 2026 by 7% to $12,200 per ton, leading to an upward revision of earnings forecasts for covered Chinese copper and gold mining stocks by 9% to 33% [1] - Preferred stocks include Zijin Mining (02899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), benefiting not only from rising commodity prices but also from simultaneous growth in copper and gold production [1] Group 2 - Zijin Mining's copper production is expected to grow by 9% to 14% in 2026, with both companies on track to meet their 2028 production targets, indicating a 40% to 45% increase compared to 2025 [1] - Zijin Mining's recurring profit forecast for 2026 to 2027 was raised by 14% to 18%, with target prices adjusted to HKD 52 for H-shares and RMB 50 for A-shares, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum's recurring profit forecast for 2026 to 2027 was increased by 20% to 24%, with target prices set at HKD 27 for H-shares and RMB 28 for A-shares, also maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]

该行上调紫金矿业2026至2027年经常性盈利预测14%至18%，紫金矿业H股目标价由39.5港元升至52港 元，紫金矿业A股(601899.SH)目标价由38元升至50元人民币，维持"买入"评级。 同时，该行上调洛阳钼业2026至2027年经常性盈利预测20%至24%，洛阳钼业H股目标价由21.5港元升 至27港元，洛阳钼业A股(603993.SH)目标价由21.5元升至28元人民币，亦维持"买入"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，将2026至2027年金价预测上调10%至16%，料2026年均价为每盎 司4,978美元，2027年上半年为每盎司5,585美元。该行同时调升2026年铜价预测7%至每吨12,200美元。 因此，该行上调其覆盖的中国铜业及金矿股2026至2027年的盈利预测，幅度介乎9%至33%，首选股份 为紫金矿业(02899)及洛阳钼业(03993)，因其不单止受惠于商品价格上升，其铜及黄金产量亦将同步增 长。 该行预期紫金矿业及洛阳钼业2026年铜产量将增长9%至14%。根据目前的项目进度，两间公司均有望 达成2028年产量目标，意味着届时产量较2025年增长40%至45%。在 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for 2026 to 2027 by 10% to 16%, with an average price of $4,978 per ounce in 2026 and $5,585 per ounce in the first half of 2027 [1] - The firm has also increased its copper price forecast for 2026 by 7% to $12,200 per ton [1] - As a result, Goldman Sachs has upgraded its earnings forecasts for Chinese copper and gold mining stocks for 2026 to 2027 by 9% to 33%, with Zijin Mining (02899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) as preferred stocks due to their expected production growth alongside rising commodity prices [1] Group 2 - Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are expected to see copper production growth of 9% to 14% in 2026, with both companies on track to meet their 2028 production targets, indicating a 40% to 45% increase in production compared to 2025 [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its recurring earnings forecast for Zijin Mining for 2026 to 2027 by 14% to 18%, with target prices for Zijin Mining H-shares increased from HKD 39.5 to HKD 52 and A-shares from CNY 38 to CNY 50, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Similarly, the recurring earnings forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum for 2026 to 2027 has been increased by 20% to 24%, with target prices for Luoyang Molybdenum H-shares raised from HKD 21.5 to HKD 27 and A-shares from CNY 21.5 to CNY 28, also maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]