Group 1 - Copper stocks collectively rose, with notable increases: China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals up 10% to HKD 0.099, Luoyang Molybdenum up 7.28% to HKD 17.38, Jiangxi Copper up 4.29% to HKD 35.04, and Zijin Mining up 4.29% to HKD 35.04 [1] - The U.S.-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur led to preliminary consensus on several key economic issues, indicating a potential easing of tariff pressures [1] - The Grasberg copper mine has no news on resuming production, contributing to tight copper supply and challenging smelting profit environments, with downstream consumption not meeting last year's levels during the traditional peak season [1] Group 2 - Downstream acceptance of copper prices is gradually improving, with better procurement reported this week [2] - Codelco plans to raise the copper surcharge for the European market to USD 345 per ton by 2026, marking a historical high and reflecting market concerns over tight copper supply next year [2] - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive, with the sector's valuation at historically low levels, suggesting a buy adjustment [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 14.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, representing a year-on-year growth of 73%, already achieving 87% of market's full-year expectations and 80% of UBS's forecast [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 alone, the net profit was 5.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 96% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%, exceeding market expectations by approximately 1 billion yuan [1] - Cobalt sales in Q3 reached 5,000 tons, significantly higher than market expectations and up from 2,200 tons in Q2 [1] - The effective tax rate dropped from 37% in Q2 to 27% in Q3, indicating a reduction in tax expenses by 900 million yuan compared to the previous quarter [1] Market Reaction - UBS anticipates a positive response from investors due to Luoyang Molybdenum's performance exceeding expectations [1] - The target price is set at 20.5 HKD with a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - Copper stocks collectively rose, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals up 10% to HKD 0.099, Luoyang Molybdenum up 7.28% to HKD 17.38, Jiangxi Copper up 4.29% to HKD 35.04, and Zijin Mining up 4.29% to HKD 35.04 [1] - The U.S.-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur led to a preliminary consensus on several important economic issues, indicating a slight easing of tariff pressures [1] - The Grasberg copper mine has no news on resuming production, contributing to tight copper supply and challenging smelting profit environments, with downstream consumption not meeting last year's levels during the traditional peak season [1] Group 2 - Downstream acceptance of copper prices is gradually improving, with better procurement reported this week [2] - Codelco plans to raise the copper surcharge for the European market to USD 345 per ton by 2026, marking a historical high and reflecting market concerns over tight copper supply next year [2] - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive, with the sector's valuation at historically low levels, suggesting a buy adjustment [2]

每经AI快讯，港股铜业股集体走高，截至发稿，中国大冶有色金属(00661.HK)涨10%，报0.099港元；洛 阳钼业(03993.HK)涨7.28%，报17.38港元；江西铜业股份(00358.HK)涨4.29%，报35.04港元；紫金矿业 (02899.HK)涨4.29%，报35.04港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) opened nearly 5% higher and is currently up 4.94%, trading at 17 HKD with a transaction volume of 36.83 million HKD [1] Group 1 - The stock price of Luoyang Molybdenum has shown a significant increase, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The trading volume of 36.83 million HKD reflects active investor interest in the stock [1] - The current price movement suggests potential bullish trends for the company in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters, achieving record high net profit and revenue growth, indicating robust operational efficiency and market demand [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 145.485 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.280 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 72.61% [1] - The third quarter alone saw a net profit of 5.608 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 96.40% [1] - Revenue from the mining segment reached 56.594 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of total revenue, with the copper segment contributing 38.618 billion yuan, which is over 68% of the mining revenue [1] Investment Projects - The company’s board approved an investment of 1.084 billion USD for the construction of the KFM Phase II project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with a construction period of 2 years and expected completion in 2027 [1] - The KFM Phase II project is anticipated to add a raw ore processing capacity of 7.26 million tons per year, with an expected average annual production of 100,000 tons of copper metal upon reaching full capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's strong financial performance in the first three quarters of the year, with significant revenue and profit growth, indicates a robust operational capacity and strategic investments in expansion projects [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 145.485 billion yuan for the first three quarters, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.280 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 72.61% [1] - The third quarter alone saw a profit of 5.608 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 96.40% [1] - Revenue from the mining segment reached 56.594 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of total revenue, with the copper segment contributing 38.618 billion yuan, representing over 68% of the mining revenue [1] Investment and Expansion - The company's board approved an investment of 1.084 billion USD for the construction of the KFM Phase II project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [1] - The project is expected to take two years to complete, with a target operational date in 2027, and aims to increase the ore processing capacity by 7.26 million tons per year, adding an average of 100,000 tons of copper metal annually upon reaching full capacity [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CMOC Group (3993.HK) with a 12-month price target of HK$19.00, representing an upside of 17.3% from the current price of HK$16.20 [1][2]. Core Insights - CMOC reported a net profit of Rmb5.61 billion for 3Q25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 96%, with earnings per share (EPS) rising to Rmb0.262, up 98% year-on-year [1]. - The recurring profit growth is expected to continue, driven by rising copper prices and volume growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% for 2025-26E [2]. - The company has revised its earnings estimates upward by 8-32% for 2025-27E, reflecting a positive outlook on copper prices and the impact of new cobalt export quotas from the DRC [2]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, CMOC's recurring net profit reached Rmb14.1 billion, accounting for 75% of the full-year estimate [1]. - The company expects to achieve a copper output target of 1 million tons by 2028, supported by the Cangrejos gold/copper project, which is anticipated to further enhance earnings growth [2][29]. - The report indicates that CMOC's current H-share price implies a copper price of US$8,500/t, which is lower than the spot price of US$10,900/t, suggesting potential for price appreciation if targets are met [2]. Production and Operations - CMOC's copper output in the DRC reached 543kt in 9M25, a 14% increase year-on-year, while cobalt output was 88kt, up 3.8% year-on-year [26]. - The DRC government has introduced a cobalt export quota system, allowing CMOC to export 6.5kt for the remainder of 2025 and 31.2kt annually for 2026-27E, which is expected to improve gross profit for cobalt significantly despite lower sales volume [27]. - The acquisition of Lumina Gold for C$581 million is expected to enhance CMOC's net profit by 13.1% by 2030, with significant gold and copper reserves identified at the Cangrejos project [28]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides updated revenue and earnings estimates, with total revenue projected at Rmb213,028.7 million for 2024 and Rmb192,354.5 million for 2025E [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 9.2 for 2024 and 15.5 for 2025E, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 1.8 for 2024 and 3.7 for 2025E [12]. - The report indicates a free cash flow yield of 19.6% for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 6.6% in subsequent years [12].

Summary of CMOC Group Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC Group Ltd (3993.HK) - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Cap**: US$49.825 billion - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$18.60, representing a 15% upside from the current price of HK$16.20 Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Performance**: - Net profit of Rmb5.8 billion, up 99% YoY and 19% QoQ, exceeding market expectations [1][2] - 9M25 net profit reached Rmb14.3 billion, a 70% increase YoY [1] - **Production and Sales Volume**: - Copper production was 190kt, a 17% increase YoY and 4% QoQ [7] - Sales volume for copper was 198kt, up 24% YoY but down 1% QoQ [7] - Cobalt sales volume decreased to 4.8kt from 22kt in 2Q25, with a gross profit of approximately Rmb383 million [7] Strategic Developments - **KFM Phase 2 Construction**: - Announced a construction plan expected to take 2 years, targeting production commencement in 2027, with an additional 100kt/yr copper production capacity at full capacity [2] - Total capital expenditure for this project is estimated at US$1.084 billion [2] Tax and Financial Metrics - **Effective Tax Rate**: - Reduced to 27.5% in 3Q25 from 37% in 2Q25 and 42.8% in 3Q24, contributing positively to net profit [7] - **Financial Expenses**: - Decreased significantly to Rmb50 million in 3Q25 from Rmb444 million in 2Q25 and Rmb816 million in 3Q24, likely due to foreign exchange gains [7] Guidance and Future Outlook - **EPS Estimates**: - Projected EPS for FY25 is Rmb0.78, with further increases expected in subsequent years [4] - **Revenue Growth**: - Assumed annual revenue growth of 2% beyond the explicit forecast period [8] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Stronger-than-expected metal prices in 2025 and copper output exceeding company guidance [11] - **Downside Risks**: - Potential decline in cobalt prices due to weak demand from industrial sectors and domestic electric vehicles [11] Conclusion - CMOC Group Ltd has demonstrated strong financial performance in 3Q25, with significant year-over-year growth in net profit and production volumes. The company's strategic initiatives, including the KFM Phase 2 project, position it for future growth, while a lower effective tax rate and reduced financial expenses enhance profitability. However, potential risks related to metal prices and demand fluctuations should be monitored closely.

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market reached new highs last week, with the Nasdaq and Dow Jones both rising over 1%, and Micron Technology increasing nearly 6% [1] - The U.S. September CPI year-on-year was 3%, lower than expected, and the core CPI was also 3%, indicating potential easing of inflation concerns [1] - The European rating agencies downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, reflecting concerns over fiscal stability [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focused on enhancing the resilience and risk resistance of the capital market [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term on October 27 [1] - Guizhou Province's energy bureau director Chen Hua has been appointed as the chairman of Moutai Group [1] Group 3 - Dongfang Fortune reported a net profit of 3.53 billion yuan for the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 77.74% [1] - Guoxuan High-Tech's net profit for the third quarter was 2.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1434.42% [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum plans to invest 1.084 billion USD in the construction of the KFM Phase II project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is expected to add an average annual production of 100,000 tons of copper metal upon reaching full capacity [1]