Group 1 - UBS has raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 7% and 4% respectively, to $4.24 per pound and $4.68 per pound, reversing previous cautious demand outlooks due to the diminishing impact of tariff uncertainties [1] - UBS maintains an optimistic view on copper prices, supported by favorable supply-side dynamics and long-term demand drivers [1] - UBS has increased the target price for Zijin Mining by 7% to HKD 25.3 and for Luoyang Molybdenum by 12.5% to HKD 9.9, reiterating a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (SH603993) is facing a temporary suspension of cobalt metal deliveries by its wholly-owned subsidiary IXM due to a force majeure event related to the extension of a cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [1][3] Group 1: Company Operations - IXM's business covers over 80 countries across Asia, Europe, South America, and North America, leveraging strategic synergies between trading and mining sectors [2] - In 2024, IXM is projected to complete a physical trading volume of 4 to 4.5 million tons, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.353 billion yuan [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum is the world's largest cobalt producer, expecting to produce 114,200 tons of cobalt in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106% [2] Group 2: Market Impact - The DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended for an additional three months to alleviate market pressure from high inventory levels and to create conditions for future market regulation [3][4] - Since the initial ban in February, cobalt prices have risen significantly, from 162,500 yuan per ton on February 24 to 245,000 yuan per ton on July 2 [4][5] - The DRC accounts for approximately 75% of global cobalt production, with an estimated output of 207,400 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.56% [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that continued restrictions on cobalt exports from the DRC may lead to a shift from a surplus to a potential shortage in the cobalt market by the early 2030s [5] - By 2025, China's refined cobalt production is expected to meet domestic consumption and export needs without creating excess inventory, with a projected output of 144,000 tons [5]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年6月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年7月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03993 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,933,468,000 | RMB | | 0.2 RMB | | 786,693,600 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,933,468,000 | RMB | | 0.2 RMB | | 786,693,600 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 ...

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - International copper prices surged, with a peak of $9,984, and COMEX copper rising nearly 2% [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 LME copper price forecast from $9,140/ton to $9,890/ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 in August [1] - The optimism surrounding the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" bill and a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index contributed to the copper price increase [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - U.S. tariffs on copper, set at 25%, led to a significant reduction in LME copper inventory, with Asian warehouse stocks dropping from 200,000 tons to 60,000 tons, a decrease of 70% [2] - LME European inventory also saw a sharp decline of 44% in June, nearing multi-year lows [2] - The global copper inventory is under pressure due to increased demand and supply chain disruptions [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - China accounts for approximately 50% of global copper consumption, with increasing investments in power grids and infrastructure driving demand [2] - The rise in electric vehicle penetration is expected to further boost copper consumption in the future [2] - Recent PMI data from China indicates stable internal and external demand, supporting copper prices [2] Group 4: Company Insights - Luoyang Molybdenum plans to produce 650,200 tons of copper in 2024, a 55% increase, aiming for 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 [3] - Zijin Mining has confirmed copper reserves of 50.43 million tons, with production targets of 1.07 million tons in 2024 and 1.15 million tons in 2025 [3] - Minmetals Resources, a mid-sized non-ferrous metal mining company, aims for a copper equity output of 265,000 tons in 2024, ranking third among domestic listed companies [3] Group 5: Major Production Highlights - Jiangxi Copper, the world's largest single copper smelter, expects to produce 2.29 million tons of cathode copper in 2024, a 9.28% increase [4] - The company plans to increase production to 2.37 million tons in 2025, along with growth in gold and sulfuric acid production [4]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (referred to as "the company") has announced a record cash dividend of 5.456 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns and confidence in future profitability [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 213.03 billion yuan, marking a 14.37% year-on-year increase and surpassing the 200 billion yuan threshold for the first time [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 13.532 billion yuan, a significant increase of 64.03% year-on-year, also setting a historical high [3]. - Operating cash flow amounted to 32.387 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth of 108.38% compared to the previous year [3]. Production and Market Position - The company produced 650,200 tons of copper in 2024, a 55% increase, positioning it among the top ten copper producers globally [4]. - The company plans to produce between 600,000 to 660,000 tons of copper in 2025, indicating a strong production outlook [4]. - The average copper price has risen by 7.65% year-to-date, contributing positively to the company's financial performance [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a new round of expansion plans for existing mines, including the TFM West project and KFM Phase II, aiming for a copper production target of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum is actively seeking external growth opportunities while focusing on core products like copper and gold, with plans for strategic acquisitions in line with industry development trends [4][5]. Recent Acquisitions - On April 21, the company announced a cash acquisition of Lumina Gold for 581 million Canadian dollars, gaining full ownership of the Cangrejos gold project in Ecuador [5]. - The acquisition was completed on June 24, adding significant gold resources to the company's portfolio, with production expected to commence in 2028 at an annual output of approximately 11.5 tons [5].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.17% at 24,284.15 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.07% to 5,341.43 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.47% to 8,762.47 points [2] - The automotive, pharmaceutical, and banking sectors showed weakness, while the metals sector experienced gains [4] Metals Sector Performance - The metals sector saw significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper rising over 7%, Tianqi Lithium and Luoyang Molybdenum both increasing over 6%, and Zijin Mining among the top performers [4] - Notable stock performances included Luoyang Molybdenum at 6.26% with a market cap of 191.02 billion, Tianqi Lithium at 6.78% with a market cap of 56.97 billion, and Ganfeng Lithium at 2.74% with a market cap of 69.64 billion [5] Commodity Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that copper prices will peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025 due to tightening supply in markets outside the U.S. [5] - Ping An Securities reports that the weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system will continue to drive precious metal prices higher, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment [5] Automotive Sector Dynamics - Xiaomi Group's stock rose by 3.6%, while major automotive stocks like Xpeng Motors, NIO, and BYD saw declines of 3.17%, 1.84%, and 1.19% respectively [6][7] - Market analysts suggest that the automotive sector may be impacted by Xiaomi's competitive pricing strategy for its new YU7 series, with expectations of monthly sales reaching 60,000 to 80,000 units [7] Banking Sector Trends - Chinese bank stocks experienced slight declines, with Luzhou Bank, Chongqing Bank, and China Merchants Bank dropping by 3.49%, 2.91%, and 2.39% respectively [8] - Recent reports indicate that insurance funds have been favoring high-dividend bank stocks, but this trend may be slowing down as investment teams shift focus towards technology innovation board companies [8] Financial Sector Developments - Huaxing Capital Holdings saw a significant intraday rise of nearly 38% before closing up 4.67% at HKD 4.48 per share, following its announcement of a $100 million investment in the Web 3.0 and cryptocurrency asset space [11] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced an increase in position limits for futures and options contracts on major indices, effective July 2, 2025, aimed at enhancing market flexibility [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and valuation of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., noting its recent stock price increase and low rolling PE ratio compared to the industry average [1][2] - As of the first quarter of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 46.006 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year, while net profit surged by 90.47% to 3.946 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.33% [1] - The company ranks fifth in the small metals industry based on PE ratio, with an average industry PE of 53.16 and a median of 48.90 [1][2] Group 2 - Luoyang Molybdenum's total market capitalization is approximately 178.44 billion yuan, with 166 institutions holding shares, including 160 funds [1] - The company's main business includes mining and processing of base and rare metals, with key products such as molybdenum, tungsten, copper, cobalt, and niobium [1]

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to impact cobalt prices positively, as it aims to address the oversupply in the market and may lead to a supply shortage, thus increasing prices [1][2][4]. Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt is a critical metal for energy transition, widely used in battery manufacturing and alloys, with DRC being the main global supplier [2]. - Prior to the export ban, cobalt prices had dropped significantly, with a reported price of $11.26 per pound in 2024, down 25.48% year-on-year [2]. - Following the initial export ban in February, cobalt prices peaked at 250,000 yuan/ton but later fell to 230,000 yuan/ton due to high historical inventory levels and unclear future policies [2]. Price Movements - After the announcement of the extended export ban, cobalt prices showed a notable increase, with "Longjiang 1 cobalt" rising by 22,000 yuan/ton, reaching a price range of 244,000 to 268,000 yuan/ton [3]. Impact on Companies - Companies primarily dealing with cobalt, such as Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd., Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co., Ltd., and Ganzhou Tengyuan Cobalt Industry New Materials Co., Ltd., saw their stock prices rise significantly following the ban announcement [4]. - The DRC's export ban is expected to exacerbate raw material shortages in major consuming countries like China, with potential supply reductions exceeding 100,000 metal tons [4][5]. Company Responses - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in cobalt production and sales for 2024, with production up 105.61% to 114,200 tons and sales up 266.23% to 108,900 tons [6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum operates two major mines in DRC, benefiting directly from the price rebound due to the export ban [7]. - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry indicated that they have sufficient safety stock to mitigate the impact of the export ban on their operations, and they maintain good relationships with suppliers to ensure raw material availability [8].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is experiencing a significant change in fundamentals, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) extending its cobalt export ban, which has led to a temporary reversal in supply-demand dynamics and a rebound in cobalt prices [1][9] - Cobalt prices have historically gone through multiple cycles, with the current cycle being influenced by the demand from the electric vehicle and aerospace industries since 2016 [2][4] - The DRC controls over 70% of global cobalt supply, and its export restrictions have contributed to a price increase from a low of $9.5 per pound to $15.75 per pound [1][9] Group 2: Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (603993.SH) has become the world's largest cobalt producer, with production expected to rise significantly from 5.55 million tons in 2023 to 11.42 million tons in 2024, increasing its market share from around 10% to nearly 40% [7][8] - The company has seen a substantial increase in profitability due to the recovery in cobalt prices and the resumption of exports after a period of restrictions [14][15] - Despite being the largest cobalt producer, cobalt is a byproduct for the company, with copper being the primary profit driver, projected to generate a gross profit of 21 billion yuan in 2024 compared to 3 billion yuan from cobalt [15][16] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent extension of the export ban by the DRC has raised concerns about potential raw material shortages for Chinese cobalt refineries, which may face supply challenges in the latter half of the year [11][12] - There are differing opinions on whether alternative sources and existing inventories can meet demand, with some analysts suggesting that even without DRC exports, global cobalt supply in 2025 will be sufficient to meet consumption needs [12] - The market is closely monitoring the DRC's decisions regarding export quotas, which could further influence cobalt prices and supply dynamics [1][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the sustained upward trend in gold prices driven by ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures and geopolitical issues, while silver is expected to enter a phase of catch-up growth [1][2] - The report predicts that the precious metals market will continue to benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar credit system, with gold's price center expected to rise due to multiple converging factors [2][3] - Silver's supply-demand dynamics are projected to maintain a deficit throughout the year, creating a favorable environment for price increases, especially as the gold-silver ratio is expected to converge downward during the easing cycle [1][2] Group 2 - The industrial metals sector is anticipated to experience price increases due to a combination of limited supply and low inventory levels, particularly for copper and aluminum, which are expected to see demand elasticity release [2][3] - The report highlights that the global economy is likely to remain in a loose monetary environment, which will support industrial metal prices and enhance demand driven by domestic policy [2][3] - The energy metals sector is currently in a clearing phase, with demand from sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics expected to remain resilient, although the overall supply-demand balance is still skewed towards excess [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and expected volume growth in the coming years, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tianshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, Huayou Cobalt, and Zhongjin Resources [4]