Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of responsible land acquisition and resettlement practices in large mining projects, highlighting TFM's commitment to adhering to international standards and local regulations to ensure the rights and livelihoods of affected communities are respected and improved [1][9]. Group 1: Resettlement Process - TFM prioritizes resettlement and compensation for land users when mining operations impact local residents, following Congolese laws, environmental and social impact assessments, and international standards [3][11]. - The resettlement process involves participatory methods, ensuring affected communities are informed, engaged, and have channels to express their opinions, with negotiations conducted transparently in the presence of local leaders and organizations [3][11]. Group 2: Asset Assessment and Compensation - Before resettlement, TFM initiates a systematic process to inventory and assess the assets of affected individuals, which is crucial for ensuring fair compensation [4][12]. - Compensation is set at 150% of the assessed value of the assets, including transportation allowances and support for vulnerable groups, with a focus on capacity building through training in financial management and entrepreneurship [5][13]. Group 3: Diverse Resettlement Options and Livelihood Restoration - Affected individuals can choose to relocate to TFM-built resettlement villages or select urban areas within supported provinces, with agricultural support provided for three years to enhance food security and restore livelihoods [6][14]. - Families losing up to 2501 square meters of farmland receive agricultural supplies, and after the support period, they are encouraged to join savings and credit associations to improve financial inclusion and community resilience [6][14]. Group 4: Transparency and Accountability - TFM maintains a comprehensive archive of all relevant documents in both paper and electronic formats to ensure traceability and transparency in the resettlement process [7][15]. - An open grievance mechanism allows community members to submit complaints, with a commitment to respond within 45 days, reinforcing trust and participation in the resettlement process [7][15].

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业周报 降息预期交易继续 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [分析师： Table_Author]宫帅 SAC 执证号：S0260518070003 SFC CE No. BOB672 010-59136660 gongshuai@gf.com.cn 分析师： 王乐 SAC 执证号：S0260523050004 021-38003617 wangle@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈琪玮 SAC 执证号：S0260524040003 SFC CE No. BTE650 021-38003631 chenqiwei@gf.com.cn 请注意，王乐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 -4% 16% 35% 55% 74% 94% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 有色金属 沪深300 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 工业金属与钢铁：内需预期有望改善，工业金属价格或高位运行。铜 铝：25 年 12 月 ...

格隆汇1月4日｜入选逻辑：手握全球约23%钴储量及世界级铜钴矿集群，核心矿山铜钴品位远超行业平 均，KFM二期投产后将再增10万吨铜产能，叠加刚果(金)钴出口配额红利，量价共振支撑业绩高增。 通过资源禀赋优势与数字化改革降本，铜生产成本处在相对低位，"矿山+贸易"模式平滑周期波动，抗 风险能力行业领先。 铜钴受益新能源需求扩容，巴西金矿并购落地与厄瓜多尔金矿布局构建"铜金双极"，H股股权激励绑定 核心团队，长期成长确定性强。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant growth potential of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (洛阳钼业), highlighting its transformation into a global leader in copper and cobalt production, with a projected stock price increase of over 200% by 2025 and a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Business Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue structure for the first three quarters of 2025 shows that mineral trading accounted for 61.1% of total revenue, with copper and cobalt contributing 26.5% and 4.3% respectively [3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 2 trillion yuan for the first time in 2024, with a net profit of 135.32 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 64.03% [12]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1,454.85 billion yuan and a net profit of 142.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 72.61% [12]. Group 2: Market Position and Demand - The company is deeply integrated into the domestic new energy industry chain, benefiting from the rising demand for copper and cobalt, which are essential for electric vehicles and batteries [6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's cobalt products are primarily supplied to leading domestic battery manufacturers such as CATL and BYD, creating a closed-loop from raw materials to end demand [6]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, with copper prices expected to exceed $12,000 per ton by 2025 and cobalt prices rising over 154% from the beginning of the year [6]. Group 3: Global Resource Strategy - The company has established a global presence through strategic acquisitions in Asia, Africa, and South America, securing significant reserves of copper, cobalt, niobium, phosphate, molybdenum, and tungsten [8]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo include TFM, one of the largest copper-cobalt mines globally, ensuring a stable supply for the domestic new energy industry [9]. Group 4: Future Growth and Expansion - The company aims to produce 66,000 tons of copper and 12,000 tons of cobalt by 2026, with ongoing expansion projects expected to enhance production capacity significantly [21]. - The KFM Phase II project, set to be operational by 2027, will add 100,000 tons of copper production capacity, supporting the company's long-term growth objectives [17]. - The acquisition of gold mines in Brazil is expected to diversify revenue streams and enhance profitability, with projected annual gold production reaching 8 tons [20].

Group 1 - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS are optimistic about the global stock market outlook for 2026, expecting double-digit gains in both developed and emerging markets due to strong earnings growth, declining interest rates, and reduced policy headwinds [1] - The United States is projected to maintain its position as the global growth engine, driven by a resilient economy and an AI-driven supercycle that is leading to record capital expenditures and rapid earnings expansion [1] - The momentum of the AI industry is spreading globally across various sectors including technology, utilities, banking, healthcare, and logistics, creating both winners and losers amid an already imbalanced K-shaped economy [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has released a list of recommended stocks for investment based on the Earnings Revision Leading Indicator (ERLI), which includes companies such as AIA Group (01299.HK), Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK), Lenovo Group (00992.HK), and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) [1] - Other notable stocks on the list include China Ping An (02318.HK), Zijin Mining (02899.HK), Techtronic Industries (00669.HK), and China Pacific Insurance (02601.HK) [1] - Additional companies mentioned are ZTO Express-W (02057.HK), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK), and China Aluminum (02600.HK) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the prices of non-ferrous metal stocks, driven by new policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aimed at optimizing traditional industries, particularly in alumina and copper smelting [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increased by 4.04% to HKD 54.05, China Hongqiao (01378) rose by 4.17% to HKD 33.98, Shandong Gold (01787) gained 4.1% to HKD 36.02, Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) went up by 3.9% to HKD 19.99, and Zijin Mining (02899) increased by 3.76% to HKD 37 [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the new policies may restrict the planning of new alumina production capacity and expects capacity consolidation to benefit industry leaders, while lower annual copper concentrate processing and refining fees may lead to a reduction in refined copper output by 2026 [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities points out that insufficient capital expenditure, limited resource supply, strong AI demand prospects, expanding fiscal deficits, and declining interest rates are creating a new resource pricing paradigm globally, leading to a feast in the non-ferrous sector [2] - The article notes that the distribution of physical resources between the US and non-US regions is uneven due to threats from US tariffs on key minerals, resulting in liquidity shortages in certain markets and increased capital inflow to long positions [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market for non-ferrous metals has seen significant gains, with several companies experiencing notable increases in their stock prices [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) rose by 4.04%, reaching HKD 54.05 [1] - China Hongqiao (01378.HK) increased by 4.17%, trading at HKD 33.98 [1] - Shandong Gold (01787.HK) saw a rise of 4.1%, with a stock price of HKD 36.02 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) gained 3.9%, priced at HKD 19.99 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) experienced a 3.76% increase, with shares at HKD 37 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the prices of non-ferrous metal stocks, driven by new policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aimed at optimizing traditional industries, particularly in alumina and copper smelting [1] - Major non-ferrous metal companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, China Hongqiao, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Zijin Mining have seen substantial stock price increases, with Ganfeng Lithium rising by 4.04% to HKD 54.05, and China Hongqiao increasing by 4.17% to HKD 33.98 [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the new policies may limit the planning of new alumina production capacity and that capacity consolidation will benefit industry leaders, while lower annual copper concentrate processing and refining fees may lead to reduced refined copper output by 2026 [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities points out that insufficient capital expenditure, limited resource supply, strong AI demand prospects, expanding fiscal deficits, and declining interest rates are creating a new resource pricing paradigm globally, leading to a feast in the non-ferrous sector [2] - The article notes that the distribution of physical resources between the US and non-US regions is uneven due to threats from US tariffs on key minerals, resulting in liquidity shortages in certain markets and increased capital inflow to long positions [2]

Group 1 - The Congolese mining regulatory authority has decided to extend the cobalt export quotas set for Q4 2025 until March 31, 2026, to ensure a smooth implementation of the new quota system [1] - The total cobalt export cap for the year 2025 has been established at 96,600 tons, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounting for approximately 70% of global cobalt production [1] - The demand for cobalt has surged due to the rapid growth of the global electric vehicle industry, which has led to increased international cobalt prices following previous export restrictions [1] Group 2 - Glencore is expected to be one of the first companies to initiate shipments under the new quota system, while China Molybdenum has been preparing for its first cobalt exports [2] - China Molybdenum has been allocated a cobalt export quota of 6,650 tons for Q4 2025, and the company is working to comply with the Congolese government's export procedures [2] - Several administrative processes, including shipping, customs declaration, and final approvals, must be completed before the exports can officially commence [2] Group 3 - The Congolese government announced a suspension of cobalt exports in February 2025, initially set for four months, to address the oversupply in the international market that was causing a decline in prices [3]

Core Insights - The 2026 "Bet on China" top ten core assets have been announced by Gelonghui, a well-known independent research institution in China, based on votes from millions of members across over 70 countries [1][3] - The selection process involved over half a month of voting, resulting in hundreds of thousands of valid votes, emphasizing the collective wisdom of global investors [3] Selection Criteria - The selected listed companies must meet four key principles, reflecting the uncertainties in the Chinese investment market for 2025, including fluctuating recovery expectations, real estate stability concerns, and the ambiguity in investment directions related to AI and new energy [2] Performance Metrics - Since the end of 2018, the "Bet on China" top ten core assets index has achieved a cumulative increase of 318.67%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index (+56.2%), Hang Seng index (-0.82%), and S&P 500 index (+175.3%) [3] - In 2025, the equal-weighted return of the top ten core assets reached 35.1%, again surpassing the CSI 300 index (+17.7%), Hang Seng index (+27.8%), and S&P 500 index (+17.3%) [3] Core Assets Overview 1. **Zhongji Xuchuang (300308)**: Expected to benefit from the acceleration of AI computing infrastructure in China, with a projected demand for optical modules reaching 18 billion yuan, and a 50% annual growth in domestic demand for 800G optical modules [5] 2. **Tencent Holdings (00700.HK)**: With a massive user base, Tencent is expected to see its advertising revenue exceed 40 billion yuan in 2026, driven by its social media platforms and AI efficiency improvements [6][7] 3. **Alibaba (09988.HK)**: Anticipated to achieve 170 billion yuan in revenue from cloud services, with a growth rate of 34%, while also focusing on domestic consumption upgrades [7][8] 4. **Gold ETF (518880)**: Positioned as a key hedging tool for domestic investors, with a forecasted gold price potentially reaching 5,000 USD per ounce, supported by liquidity and geopolitical factors [8] 5. **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993/03993.HK)**: Expected to produce 660,000 tons of copper and 120,000 tons of cobalt in 2026, benefiting from the growth of the domestic electric vehicle market [9] 6. **Ping An Insurance (601318/02318.HK)**: Projected to see a 20%-25% increase in market value, benefiting from the domestic interest rate cycle and a focus on quality equity assets [10] 7. **Dongfang Caifu (300059)**: Anticipated to see a 22%-28% growth in market value, driven by increased capital market activity and AI-driven wealth management services [11] 8. **Wanhua Chemical (600309)**: Expected to achieve a net profit of 15.5-16.2 billion yuan in 2026, supported by domestic demand for MDI and new materials [12] 9. **WuXi AppTec (02268.HK)**: Positioned as a leader in the ADC field, with over 60% of its pipeline serving domestic clients, reflecting the growth of China's biopharmaceutical industry [13] 10. **Trip.com Group (09961.HK)**: Projected to see a revenue growth of over 25%, benefiting from the recovery of domestic travel and tourism [14] Conclusion - The ten core assets are aligned with China's key sectors such as AI computing, new energy, consumption, finance, and biomedicine, reflecting the country's new productive forces and upgrading of livelihoods [14]