中信建投武超则：大模型的迭代永无止境 坚定看好接下来AI应用的发展表现 智通财经7月16日电，在中信建投证券TMT主题论坛上，中信建投执行委员会委员武超则表示，从当前 环境来看，"天时、地利、人和"都在逐步具备，依然坚定看好后续AI应用发展表现。从三方面来看，全 球模型、算力及AI应用均发生变化。随着算法不断迭代以及芯片升级，大模型成本不断降低，模型平 权（降本）趋势明显。大模型规模提升，模型能力持续提升，同时算力需求不断提升，凸显以出货量、 生态、产品力为三大核心要素，端侧算力值得期待。AI应用的发展将经历聊天机器、AI Agent、数字员 工/机器人三大阶段，2025有望成为AI Agent元年。未来，新一轮技术革命将从信息化、网络化到数字 化、智能化。（智通财经记者 陈俊兰 赵昕睿） ...

2025年7月16日多晶硅主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买車 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 中信期货 | 96,400 | -42,947 | 国泰君安期货 | 18,107 | -419 | 中信建投 | 14,195 | 031 | | 2 | 国泰君安期货 | 74,276 | -4,656 | 浙商期货 | 17,650 | 1,110 | 中信期货 | 9,329 | -157 | | 3 | 中信建投 | 45,868 | -11,819 | 永安期货 | 15,291 | 5,311 | 银河期货 | 8,213 | 1.064 | | 4 | 走闻期货 | 30,311 | 8,863 | 中信期货 | 13,969 | 1,071 | 国泰君安期货 | 7,852 | -661 | | 5 | 王矿期货 | 27,790 | -2,125 | 中信建投 | 8,892 | ...

主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：华泰期货、持仓11706、增仓361，中信建投、持仓4468、增仓236，宏源期货、持 仓5842、增仓216；多头减仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓27125、减仓-2946，平安期货、持仓6922、减仓-772，兴证期货、持 仓2259、减仓-521； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：格林大华、持仓3010、增仓401，中信建投、持仓3554、增仓94，华泰期货、持仓 10260、增仓69；空头减仓前三名分别是：国金期货、持仓4932、减仓-671，宏源期货、持仓4469、减仓-582，国泰君安、持仓 14313、减仓-434。 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年7月16日10年期国债期货主力合约2509持仓数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | | 会员 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 17,548 | -4,257 ...

Core Insights - As of July 16, 2025, the main contract for coking coal (2509) experienced a decline of 1.48%, with a trading volume of 975,300 contracts and a net short position of 45,396 contracts among the top 20 positions [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - The total trading volume for all coking coal contracts was 1,246,300 contracts, a decrease of 78,600 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 439,200 contracts, an increase of 10,600 contracts, while short positions totaled 516,700 contracts, an increase of 25,000 contracts [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by: - CITIC Futures with a total position of 47,665 contracts - Guotai Junan with a total position of 42,426 contracts - Huatai Futures with a total position of 42,160 contracts [1][3]. - The top three short positions were held by: - Guotai Junan with a total position of 81,591 contracts - CITIC Futures with a total position of 66,697 contracts - Galaxy Futures with a total position of 45,111 contracts [1][3]. Changes in Positions - Among the top 20 positions, the largest increases in long positions were from: - Xingzheng Futures with an increase of 3,808 contracts - Founder Futures with an increase of 2,585 contracts - CITIC Jiantou with an increase of 2,137 contracts [1][3]. - The largest increases in short positions were from: - Guotai Junan with an increase of 7,377 contracts - Donghai Futures with an increase of 2,709 contracts - CITIC Futures with an increase of 2,682 contracts [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's 16-year career in the finance industry, emphasizing the importance of mentorship, professional growth, and the aspiration to become a top fund manager in China [1][2][7]. Group 1: Career Development - The author began their career in 2006 at Pacific Securities, where they received early encouragement to become an excellent fund manager, which became a guiding principle [2]. - Transitioning to Haitong Securities, the author focused on quantitative analysis, contributing to the team's recognition in the market [3]. - The move to CITIC Securities was influenced by a mentor's recognition of the author's research methodology, reinforcing their career aspirations [4]. Group 2: Market Insights and Contributions - In 2018, during a challenging market environment due to US-China trade tensions, the author utilized a quantitative macro-timing system to provide accurate market predictions [4]. - The author played a significant role in providing market stabilization suggestions during the trade conflict, receiving recognition from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [4]. - In 2020, the author led a pivotal investment decision that significantly boosted the company's quarterly performance, marking a high point in their career [5]. Group 3: Future Aspirations - In 2023, the author set a goal to become the top fund manager in China, supported by the leadership's commitment to talent development [7]. - The author achieved the highest annual timing return in their career, reflecting the effectiveness of their research and investment strategies [8]. - The establishment of Shanghai Ruicheng Fund is aimed at fulfilling the author's long-term vision of creating a competitive investment product that leverages quantitative strategies and economic cycle theories [11].

智通财经7月16日电，在中信建投证券稳定币主题论坛上，中信建投政策研究首席分析师胡玉玮指出， 稳定币结合加密货币的可编程性与法币的稳定性，本质是一种"链上货币市场基金"或"有货币职能的支 付工具"，具备锚定机制、价格稳定性、流动性与可兑换性、开放性与跨境性、安全性与风险性等五大 核心特征。稳定币结构集中但趋势多元，具备三方面特征：一是市场集中于美元挂钩币种；二是新兴币 种（如USDe）增长迅猛，2024年初以来增长超30倍；三是USDC因合规性强，在监管市场中竞争力提 升。胡玉玮指出，从国际金融体系来看，存在三方面潜在影响，贸易支付系统方面，具备速度更快、成 本更低的优势；美国国债市场方面，稳定币能起到扩张服务的作用；国际货币秩序方面，"东升西落"叙 事将持续提高中国等新兴市场影响力。（智通财经记者 赵昕睿 陈俊兰） 中信建投胡玉玮：稳定币重构国际金融体系 存在三方面潜在影响 ...

Group 1 - The number of A-share investors has exceeded 240 million as of June 30 this year, indicating a new bull market is emerging in the A-share market [1][4][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3500-point mark in July, with trading volume maintaining over 1 trillion yuan for 30 consecutive trading days [1][3] - The market sentiment is optimistic, driven by ample liquidity and favorable external conditions, suggesting that the A-share market may continue to rise [3][9] Group 2 - In 2024, the total number of new investors reached 12.74 million, with individual investors accounting for 12.72 million, marking a 5.69% increase from the previous year [5] - The A-share merger and acquisition market has seen a significant increase, with over 200 disclosed M&A events in 2024, nearly quadrupling compared to the same period last year [7] - Major securities firms are dominating the M&A advisory market, with CITIC Securities leading with 25 projects and a total transaction amount of 101.27 billion yuan [7][8] Group 3 - The valuation levels of the A-share market are considered relatively low compared to global indices, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets amid global market instability [9] - Investment strategies are suggested to focus on stable dividend assets, resource-related sectors benefiting from price increases, and new technology growth areas such as AI and solid-state batteries [10]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing fluctuations in stock performance, with the China Rare Earth Industry Index down by 0.46% as of July 16, 2025, while the rare earth ETF from Harvest has shown a significant increase of 6.05% over the past week [1][3]. Market Performance - The rare earth ETF from Harvest has a current scale of 2.764 billion yuan, reaching a one-year high, and has a total of 2.193 billion shares, also a one-year high [3]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 155 million yuan, with leveraged funds continuously entering the market, achieving a maximum single-day net purchase of 14.38 million yuan [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index account for 55.58% of the index, with North Rare Earth and China Rare Earth being the most significant contributors [5][7]. Export and Price Trends - China's rare earth exports reached 7,742.2 tons in June, marking a month-on-month increase of 32.4% and a year-on-year increase of 60%, the highest level since 2009 [3]. - Analysts predict that high overseas prices for rare earths will translate to domestic market increases, especially with the upcoming peak consumption season, leading to expectations of price rises [4]. Investment Opportunities - The rare earth ETF from Harvest has shown a one-year net value increase of 50.35%, ranking in the top 8.59% among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 41.25% since its inception, indicating strong performance potential [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that the brokerage industry has shown impressive performance in the first half of the year, with a significant increase in net profits among leading firms, reflecting enhanced market activity [1] - Among 32 brokerages that disclosed performance forecasts, 29 reported growth, with a total net profit expected to exceed 500 billion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in the sector [1] - The top-performing brokerages, such as Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities, have seen substantial profit increases, with Guotai Junan's net profit projected to grow by 205% to 218% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities has received approval to issue company bonds totaling up to 40 billion yuan, which is expected to optimize its capital structure and support its stock price [2] - The approval reflects market confidence in Huatai Securities' qualifications and is likely to enhance the overall financing capacity of the brokerage sector, boosting market liquidity [2] Group 3 - Government investment funds have significantly increased their contributions, with a year-on-year growth of 151.22%, driven by favorable policies and regulatory easing [3] - This increase in funding is expected to improve the capital structure of companies and support various industry sectors, enhancing market confidence [3] Group 4 - Over 130 funds have been liquidated this year, indicating a trend towards market-driven fund issuance and exit, with popular themes like dividends and pharmaceuticals also facing challenges [4] - The trend of fund liquidation reflects the importance of market selection and fund management capabilities, leading to increased competition within the industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage industry is expected to deliver impressive performance in the first half of 2025, driven by active market sentiment and supportive financial policies, with nearly 40% of firms forecasting a doubling of net profits [1][2] Group 1: Performance Overview - As of July 15, 32 listed brokerages have disclosed their performance forecasts, with 29 reporting profit growth and 2 turning losses into profits, while one firm reported a negative net profit growth [2][3] - The total net profit of these brokerages is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan, with leading firms like Guotai Junan, Guosen Securities, and CITIC Securities showing remarkable performance [2] - Guotai Junan is projected to achieve a net profit of 152.83 billion to 159.57 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 205% to 218% [2] Group 2: Key Growth Drivers - The significant growth in brokerage performance is attributed to self-operated and wealth management businesses, with over 70% of firms indicating that their performance benefited from self-investment activities [4] - Wealth management has also been highlighted as a major contributor, with nearly 60% of brokerages acknowledging its impact on their growth [4] - Other business segments, such as brokerage and investment banking, have positively contributed to the overall performance, with firms like CITIC Securities noting substantial increases in revenue from these areas [4] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry has enhanced the market competitiveness of certain brokerages, with Guotai Junan and Guolian Minsheng actively pursuing integration strategies [5] - Jinlong Co. reported significant investment gains due to the transfer of its shares in Dongguan Securities, leading to a substantial increase in net profit [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The brokerage sector is anticipated to maintain a steady upward trajectory, supported by favorable factors such as improved valuations and ongoing market activity [6][7] - Analysts believe that the sector is positioned for a new upward cycle, with expectations of challenging the average valuation levels seen since 2016 if market conditions remain stable [7]