宏观修复与"双宽松"共振 岁末将至，市场的目光再次投向来年的A股。在深圳、北京，3场头部券商的资本市场年会前后登场， 给出了一个共同的预测：2026年，在更稳的宏观底盘、更清晰的产业方向和更友好的制度环境支撑下， A股市场奠定了"低波动慢牛"基础。与此同时，瑞银、高盛等国际投行也密集更新对中国股市的展望： A股在全球资产配置中的权重明显抬升。 在中信证券2026年资本市场年会上，中信证券总经理邹迎光表示，中国资本市场运行的积极动能正在不 断积累，奠定低波动慢牛的基础。从全球背景看，百年变局加速演进，中国的国际影响力、感召力、塑 造力正显著提升，参与全球治理与维护海外利益的能力也在持续增强。 产业格局方面，中国制造面对错综复杂的国际形势彰显出强大韧性，今年前三季度出口增长7.1%，全 产业链优势凸显。广大新兴市场与全球南方国家的发展诉求，成为中国企业走向全球的坚实保障。未来 将有更多本土龙头企业向跨国巨头转型，并将份额优势转化为定价权。 金融格局方面，伴随着全球产业力量对比的变化，全球金融秩序也将深刻重塑。中国资产价值的重估有 望持续提速。 5%附近的增速、4%左右的赤字率、需求端适度加力，这是中信证券给出的宏 ...

人民财讯11月21日电，中信建投研报称，2025年整体餐饮市场仍相对偏弱，餐饮链企业业绩分化较为明 显，而得益于持续2年的市场策略调整，餐饮链企业表现呈现逐季好转态势，市场底部信号逐渐清晰。 产品端，价格战趋缓将优化竞争环境，由价格竞争转向质价比竞争，产品与目标人群、渠道相匹配。渠 道端，渠道碎片化、新零售逐渐崛起、餐饮连锁化率提升，针对渠道变革积极拥抱优质渠道，提升供应 链效率、柔性定制能力。餐饮链出海仍重要方向。此外，关注产业底部刀刃向内改革转型的企业业绩复 苏机会。 ...

(本文来自第一财经) 中信建投研报表示，锚定十五五"提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性"的核心导向，证券行业有望迎来新 一轮上行周期，助力金融强国建设。核心驱动来自于三大政策性机遇：一是政策引导资本市场服务新质 生产力。科创板、创业板深化改革推动投行升级价值创造力，匹配高科技实体企业全生命周期融资需 求，打开投行业务中长期增长空间。二是政策完善长钱长投生态。社保、保险等中长期资金入市渠道持 续畅通，借权益产品扩容激活券商资管与机构业务增量，推动行业向配置驱动转型。三是政策推动一流 投行培育与国际化相辅相成，中资券商可依托中国香港市场及互联互通政策加速国际业务突破，并购整 合将助推行业资源向头部集中，提升头部券商资本实力与国际竞争力。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 1.71 trillion, a decrease of 17.7 billion from the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 1.12% [1] Group 2: Agricultural Sector Insights - Galaxy Securities highlighted that the focus for the agricultural sector in 2026 will be on waiting for and capturing industry turning points, emphasizing the importance of tracking core indicators and finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] - The livestock sector is expected to balance offense and defense, with a shift from a defensive stance in 2025 to a greater emphasis on potential future elasticity in 2026 [1] - The pet sector is anticipated to experience a recovery in performance growth after a period of valuation correction, presenting new investment opportunities [1] Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry Outlook - Huaxi Securities expressed a positive outlook on the lithium battery industry, driven by rapid development in domestic and international energy storage and demand for dynamic storage, which is expected to lead to continued expansion in the lithium battery supply chain [1] - Certain segments, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and VC, are experiencing significant price increases due to supply tightness, confirming the industry's high prosperity [1] - As prices rise, segments that previously faced low profitability or losses are expected to enter a phase of simultaneous volume and profit growth, with a continued focus on energy storage cells, lithium hexafluorophosphate/VC & electrolytes, copper foil, anode and cathode materials, and separators [1] Group 4: Securities Industry Prospects - CITIC Securities projected that the securities industry is likely to enter a new upward cycle, contributing to the construction of a strong financial nation [2] - The core drivers for this cycle are three major policy opportunities: 1. Policy guidance for capital markets to serve new productive forces, enhancing the value creation capability of investment banks through reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext [2] 2. Improvement of the long-term investment ecosystem, facilitating the entry of long-term funds like social security and insurance into the market, which will activate brokerage asset management and institutional business growth [2] 3. Policies promoting the cultivation of top-tier investment banks and internationalization, allowing Chinese brokers to leverage the Hong Kong market and cross-border policies for international business expansion [2]

人民财讯11月21日电，中信建投（601066）研报称，2025年整体餐饮市场仍相对偏弱，餐饮链企业业绩 分化较为明显，而得益于持续2年的市场策略调整，餐饮链企业表现呈现逐季好转态势，市场底部信号 逐渐清晰。产品端，价格战趋缓将优化竞争环境，由价格竞争转向质价比竞争，产品与目标人群、渠道 相匹配。渠道端，渠道碎片化、新零售逐渐崛起、餐饮连锁化率提升，针对渠道变革积极拥抱优质渠 道，提升供应链效率、柔性定制能力。餐饮链出海仍重要方向。此外，关注产业底部刀刃向内改革转型 的企业业绩复苏机会。 ...

2025年证券行业表现超预期：42家上市券商总资产逼近15万亿元，归母净利润同比劲增62%。年初担忧 证伪——行业未因23-24年自营高基数增长乏力，反而快速切换增长动能，内生盈利韧性凸显。当前 7%-8%的ROE虽达历史高位，但业务结构优化、竞争格局升级仍为继续改善留足空间，未来ROE或突破 前期峰值。那么行业是否已站在新一轮上行周期起点?从2025年全年看，行业呈现六大核心趋势性变 化，或许正为新一轮上行周期积蓄动能的关键信号，具体如下： 业绩驱动逻辑重塑：从自营单一主导到轻资产协同发力。业绩增长不再依赖自营单打独斗，而是转向经 纪/资管/投行等轻资产业务多点协同发力。当前轻资产业务复苏才刚启动，从业务规模来看，远未触及 周期性高点，后续空间广阔。 增长动能关键切换：权益等多元化驱动替代固收成主导力量。本轮增长并非旧动能的延续，而是源于结 构优化带来的新驱动因素，如投行从传统债券承销转向多元服务，自营从固收投资转向多元配置，财富 从稳健理财转向多元服务等。 增长底色更趋稳健：内生性发力替代杠杆扩张。全年增长依托内生性业务，未依赖杠杆大规模扩张，既 规避了流动性隐患，也为后续扩表留下安全空间。 炒股就看金麒 ...

格隆汇11月21日｜中信建投发布非银2026年投资展望：锚定十五五"提高资本市场制度包容性、适应 性"的核心导向，证券行业有望迎来新一轮上行周期，助力金融强国建设。核心驱动来自于三大政策性 机遇：一是政策引导资本市场服务新质生产力。科创板、创业板深化改革推动投行升级价值创造力，匹 配高科技实体企业全生命周期融资需求，打开投行业务中长期增长空间。二是政策完善长钱长投生态。 社保、保险等中长期资金入市渠道持续畅通，借权益产品扩容激活券商资管与机构业务增量，推动行业 向配置驱动转型。三是政策推动一流投行培育与国际化相辅相成，中资券商可依托中国香港市场及互联 互通政策加速国际业务突破，并购整合将助推行业资源向头部集中，提升头部券商资本实力与国际竞争 力。 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategies Overview - CITIC Securities released a comprehensive report on investment strategies for 2026, covering global capital markets, macroeconomic policies, A-shares, overseas markets, bond markets, asset allocation, and industry investment strategies [1] - The report includes insights from 19 research teams and spans approximately 30,000 words [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical and Biotech Investment Strategies - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is entering a critical phase characterized by "innovation realization + global layout," supported by population and domestic demand, as well as manufacturing capabilities [3][4] - The industry needs to focus on internal supply chain security and compliance while exploring diversified international expansion [3] - Key investment opportunities for 2026 include innovation commercialization, global breakthroughs, policy optimization, and industry mergers and acquisitions [3][5][6] Group 3: Medical Device Investment Strategies - The medical device sector is expected to see performance improvements in 2026 due to policy easing, new product launches, and international expansion [14] - The long-term investment opportunities in this sector stem from innovation, internationalization, and mergers and acquisitions [14] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards high-value consumables and innovative technologies such as brain-computer interfaces and AI in healthcare [14][15] Group 4: Consumer Healthcare and Bioproducts - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to recover from short-term pressures, with improved demand anticipated by year-end [9] - The blood products industry is focusing on supply growth and consolidation, with significant demand for immunoglobulin and factor products [10] - The vaccine sector is under pressure but is expected to improve with new product sales and international expansion [10] Group 5: Banking Sector Investment Strategies - The banking sector is expected to continue its weak recovery in 2025, with a focus on high dividend strategies [25][26] - The sector's fundamentals are stabilizing, with credit growth projected at 7%-8% and non-interest income expected to improve [26] - High dividend yield strategies are favored, particularly for state-owned banks and those with solid fundamentals [27] Group 6: Wealth Management and Financial Products - The wealth management sector is entering a phase of product transformation and structural optimization, with an expected growth rate of 10% in 2026 [28][33] - The focus is on multi-asset and multi-strategy products, with a significant increase in mixed product offerings anticipated [29][30] - The integration of AI and digital technologies is expected to enhance risk management and operational efficiency in wealth management [30] Group 7: Non-Banking Financial Institutions - The securities industry is poised for a new growth cycle, driven by policies that enhance capital market inclusivity and adaptability [35][36] - The industry is experiencing a shift from self-operated models to collaborative, light-asset business strategies [36][37] - The internationalization of Chinese securities firms is gaining momentum, providing new opportunities for growth [38][39] Group 8: Insurance Sector Trends - The insurance industry is expected to undergo significant changes during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on balancing interests among insurers, channels, and customers [43][44] - Key trends include the transformation of savings products, innovation in health insurance, and the development of new distribution channels [43][44] - The sector is anticipated to benefit from improved performance and valuation recovery, presenting investment opportunities [43][44] Group 9: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is recovering from a prolonged downturn, with a focus on premium products like liquor and health-oriented snacks [48][49] - The liquor industry is expected to stabilize as consumer confidence improves, with a focus on high-quality brands [49][50] - The snack and beverage segments are seeing growth driven by health trends and innovative product offerings [52][53]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to establish a "low volatility slow bull" foundation by 2026, supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, clearer industrial directions, and a friendlier regulatory framework [2][3] - International investment banks like UBS and Goldman Sachs have updated their outlooks, indicating a significant increase in the weight of A-shares in global asset allocation [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Context - Citic Securities predicts a macroeconomic growth rate of around 5% in 2025 and approximately 4.9% in 2026, with a fiscal deficit rate likely maintained at 4% [4] - The economic recovery is characterized by moderate demand-side support and a balanced fiscal and monetary policy approach [4] Group 3: New Economic Drivers - The term "new quality productivity" is frequently mentioned, highlighting sectors like AI, biotechnology, and aerospace as key drivers of market transformation [6][7] - The integration of AI with advanced manufacturing is seen as a crucial growth lever, with significant implications for various sectors [11] Group 4: Globalization and Market Structure - Chinese companies are increasingly shifting from a domestic demand-driven model to a global demand-oriented approach, exporting capital goods and solutions to emerging markets [8] - The market structure is evolving, with new economy sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy gaining market share, while traditional industries are undergoing digital transformation [7] Group 5: Investment Trends - There is an anticipated flow of up to 6 trillion RMB from real estate and deposits into the stock market, marking a transition from stock market competition based on existing assets to new incremental allocations [10] - The focus on long-term investment strategies is expected to grow, with reforms aimed at enhancing the supply of quality financial products and increasing dividend payouts from listed companies [9][12]

在科技创新债券方面，前三季度作为科技创新债券主承销商的证券公司共75家，承销674只债券，合计 金额7051.8亿元，同比增长57.77%。中信证券、中信建投、国泰海通分别承销83.8家、69.65家和62.96 家，承销金额分别为1417.91亿元、1111.66亿元和844.59亿元。 今年前三季度，作为中小微企业支持债券主承销商的证券公司共41家，承销50只债券，合计金额207.7 亿元。作为民营企业债券主承销商的证券公司共56家，承销368只债券，合计金额3913.6亿元。其中， 资产证券化产品212只，合计金额1904.01亿元。五矿证券、国信证券、国泰海通在承销中小微企业支持 债券金额上排在行业前列；中信证券、平安证券和华泰资管在承销民营企业债券金额上领跑行业。 此外，2025年前三季度参与发行地方政府债券的证券公司共69家，合计中标金额3369.54亿元，合计中 标地区31个。其中，银河证券、华泰证券、国泰海通实际中标地区分别为31个、30个和29个。 ◎记者 汤立斌 中国证券业协会日前发布的2025年前三季度证券公司债券（含企业债券）承销业务专项统计显示，今年 前三季度作为科技创新债券主承销商 ...