Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and growth potential [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant growth, with a projected revenue increase from 3,180 million in 2023 to 43,114 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 145.7% to 20.4% over the forecast period [7]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 416 million in 2023 to 7,725 million by 2027, showcasing a robust growth trajectory with a peak growth rate of 340.4% in 2023 [7]. - The company is expanding its brand influence and retail presence, with a focus on high-end markets both domestically and internationally, including a successful store opening in Singapore [5][6]. - The report highlights the company's strategic initiatives in product innovation and brand building, which are expected to enhance customer engagement and market penetration [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3,180 million in 2023, 8,506 million in 2024, 26,176 million in 2025, 35,822 million in 2026, and 43,114 million in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 145.7%, 167.5%, 207.8%, 36.8%, and 20.4% [7]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from 416 million in 2023 to 7,725 million in 2027, with growth rates of 340.4%, 253.9%, 227.1%, 35.2%, and 18.6% respectively [7]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 3.05 in 2023 to 44.74 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [7]. Market Expansion - The company has opened 41 stores as of July 27, 2025, with a focus on high-end shopping districts in major cities and international markets [6]. - The Singapore store has shown strong performance, with expectations for sales growth driven by increased foot traffic and a dedicated membership system [5]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to enhancing its brand presence and customer experience through strategic store placements and product offerings [5].

Core Viewpoint - Laopu Gold (06181.HK) has released a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit of approximately 2.3 billion to 2.36 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 282% to 292%, setting a new historical record for the company [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates sales revenue (including tax) of approximately 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 240% to 252% [3]. - The expected revenue is around 12 billion to 12.5 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 241% to 255% compared to the previous year [3]. - The adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) is projected to be about 2.3 billion to 2.36 billion RMB, marking an increase of 282% to 292% year-on-year [3]. - The net profit is estimated to be around 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion RMB, which is a growth of 279% to 288% compared to the same period last year [3]. Stock Performance - Laopu Gold's stock price has seen a significant increase of 373% from the beginning of the year until early July, although it has recently experienced a decline of over 30% from its peak of 1,108 HKD [1][5]. - As of July 25, the stock closed at 764.5 HKD, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 219.5% [5]. Market Dynamics - The company's growth is attributed to its expanding brand influence and market advantages, leading to substantial revenue growth from both online and offline stores [3]. - The stock price decline may be linked to the release of locked shares and reduced market confidence, as a large number of shares held by 12 shareholders, including the founder, were unlocked at the end of June [9]. Competitive Positioning - Laopu Gold is positioned as a high-end brand, with approximately 40% of its products priced between 10,000 to 250,000 RMB, and over a quarter of its revenue coming from products priced above 50,000 RMB [10]. - The company ranks first in average revenue per store and sales efficiency among all well-known jewelry brands in mainland China, surpassing international luxury brands [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts have differing views on Laopu Gold's future performance, with some expressing concerns about high market expectations for net profit in 2025 amid potential fluctuations in gold prices [17]. - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic, predicting accelerated growth in the second half of the year due to rising gold prices and strong demand, adjusting revenue forecasts upward by 13% to 18% for 2025 to 2027 [18].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a sluggish domestic gold jewelry consumption in the first half of the year, Laopu Gold has shown exceptional performance with significant revenue and profit growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Laopu Gold expects to achieve sales revenue of approximately RMB 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 240% to 252% [1]. - The net profit is projected to be around RMB 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 279% to 288% [1]. - For the fiscal year 2024, Laopu Gold reported sales of RMB 9.8 billion, a year-on-year growth of 166%, and a net profit of RMB 1.47 billion, up 254% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The increase in revenue and net profit is attributed to the expanding brand influence and market advantages, leading to significant growth in both online and offline store revenues [1]. - Laopu Gold's average sales per store in mainland China reached RMB 328 million, with plans to increase this average to over RMB 1 billion in the future [1]. - The company positions itself as a premium brand in the gold market, comparable to luxury brands like Hermès, emphasizing the need for high performance in sales [1]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Laopu Gold's stock price surged from the IPO price of HKD 40.5 to HKD 1,100, marking an increase of over 20 times, making it one of the best-performing stocks in Hong Kong [2]. - However, since July 9, 2025, the stock price has declined from a peak of HKD 1,080 to around HKD 735, reflecting a nearly 4% drop [2]. - UBS reported that investor expectations for Laopu Gold's 2025 earnings range from RMB 4 billion to 6 billion, indicating a potential year-on-year growth of 170% to 300%, although these expectations may be overly optimistic [2]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The ancient method gold segment is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Chow Tai Fook, Caibai, Chow Sang Sang, and Luk Fook also entering the market [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a sluggish domestic gold jewelry consumption in the first half of the year, Lao Pu Gold is experiencing significant growth, with projected sales performance for the first half of 2025 expected to increase by 240% to 252% year-on-year [1] - Lao Pu Gold anticipates achieving sales revenue (including tax) of approximately RMB 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion and a net profit of about RMB 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 279% to 288% [1] - The increase in revenue and net profit is attributed to the expanding brand influence, resulting in substantial growth in both online and offline store revenues, as well as continuous product optimization and innovation [1] Group 2 - Lao Pu Gold's stock price has surged from an initial public offering price of HKD 40.5 per share to HKD 1,100 per share, marking an increase of over 20 times, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the Hong Kong market [3] - However, since July 9, 2025, the stock price has been on a downward trend, dropping nearly 4% to HKD 735 [3] - UBS has reported that investor expectations for Lao Pu Gold's 2025 earnings range from RMB 4 billion to 6 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 170% to 300%, but these expectations may be overly optimistic due to potential risks such as gold price fluctuations and varying financial performance across stores [3] Group 3 - The ancient method gold market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Chow Tai Fook, Caibai, Chow Sang Sang, and Luk Fook also entering the same product category [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 1,200 [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of approximately RMB 120-125 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 241%-255% [1][2]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be around RMB 23-23.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 282%-292% [2][3]. - The strong performance is attributed to contributions from both online and offline stores, as well as the opening of new large stores in key locations [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company anticipates sales performance (including tax revenue) of about RMB 138-143 billion in 1H25, which is a year-on-year increase of approximately 240%-252% [2]. - The revenue growth is driven by the rapid expansion of brand influence, continuous product innovation, and significant growth in both online and offline channels [2][3]. Profitability - The expected adjusted net profit margin for 1H25 is around 19%, an increase of approximately 1.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [2]. - The improvement in net profit margin is primarily due to operational leverage optimization, which has led to a significant reduction in expense ratios [2][3]. Product Innovation - The company continues to innovate on traditional craftsmanship, launching new products such as "Seven Sons Gourd" and "Cross Diamond Pendant" in 1H25, which have received positive market feedback [3]. - The introduction of these new products enhances the diversity of gold jewelry offerings and broadens the customer base [3]. Channel Expansion - The company has made significant breakthroughs in both domestic and international high-end markets, opening stores in premium locations such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Singapore [4]. - The ongoing optimization of store locations, member operations, and brand building is expected to further enhance single-store performance [4]. Financial Forecast - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at RMB 49.1 billion, RMB 62.1 billion, and RMB 75.8 billion respectively [5]. - The target price of HKD 1,200 corresponds to a PE ratio of 38.5 times for 2025, reflecting the company's strong growth momentum and high-end brand positioning [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.40%, gaining 102 points to close at 25,490 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.59% [1] - Hong Kong's stock market saw a morning trading volume of HKD 149.7 billion [1] Group 2: Brokerage Performance - The establishment of the China Capital Market Society has led to positive performance reports from listed brokerages, with notable gains in shares such as Guotai Junan (up 3%), Everbright Securities (up 0.54%), and CITIC Securities (up 1%) [1] Group 3: Gaming Sector - UBS reported that Macau's July gaming revenue exceeded market expectations, while Thailand recently withdrew its casino legalization bill, leading to a rise in gaming stocks. Notable increases include Suncity Holdings (up 7.79%), Melco International Development (up 3.89%), and Sands China (up 1.62%) [1] Group 4: Financial Technology and Digital Currency - Yunfeng Financial rose by 5.68% as the company plans to enter the Web 3.0 space and expand investments in stablecoins and other digital currencies [1] - OSL Group announced the completion of a USD 300 million equity financing, which will be used for license application preparations and other core areas, resulting in a 2.68% increase in its stock [1] Group 5: Innovative Products and Earnings - Guichuang Tongqiao saw a nearly 6% increase, with expected net profit growth of nearly 67% year-on-year for the first half, and several innovative products anticipated to receive approval [1] - China Tobacco Hong Kong surged over 13%, indicating that its exclusive cigarette export business is unaffected by related regulatory draft [1] Group 6: Optical Technology - Conant Optical experienced a rise of over 6%, driven by the upward trend in smart glasses and the potential growth of its XR business [2] Group 7: Gold and Coal Sectors - Laopu Gold's stock fell nearly 4% after a profit warning, despite a projected net profit increase of up to 288% year-on-year for the first half [3] - The main contracts for coking coal saw significant declines, with companies like Mongolian Coking Coal and Yancoal Australia dropping by 5% and 3.39% respectively, indicating a need to monitor policy developments [3]

金十数据7月28日讯，花旗发表研究报告指，老铺黄金(06181.HK)发盈喜，预计2025年上半年净利润将 介乎22.3亿至22.8亿元人民币，按年增长279%至288%，撇除股份支付费用后的经调整净利润料增长 282%至292%，达23亿至23.6亿元人民币，收入则大幅增长241%至255%，主要受线下同店销售增长及 线上销售扩张驱动。花旗认为，中期业绩基本符合市场预期，高于该行预估，主要来自收入表现强劲的 推动。该行指，虽然老铺黄金的股价已从高位回调逾30%，但现价对应2025及2026年预测市盈率仅25.1 倍及18.6倍，认为估值具吸引力，重申买入评级，看好其线上线下协同效应及品牌溢价能力，给予目标 价1084港元，对应预测今年市盈率约36倍。 花旗重申老铺黄金买入评级 估值具吸引力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have been significantly influenced by speculative demand and short-term arbitrage, but long-term demand from central bank purchases and financial investments is expected to support gold prices, leading to a potential rise above $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may signal interest rate cuts, which would support liquidity and consequently gold prices, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - The gold stock ETF has shown a year-to-date net value increase of 29.36%, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [3] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index account for 66.13% of the index [4] - The performance of the top ten holdings in the gold stock ETF shows mixed results, with some stocks experiencing declines while others, like Zijin Mining and Chow Tai Fook, have seen slight increases [7] - The gold stock ETF fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, indicating a relatively low cost for investors [3]

野村研报指出，上调老铺黄金目标价12.2%，从1023港元上调至1148港元，评级"买入"。野村认为，这 一盈喜将消除部分投资者对老铺黄金盈利数据可能弱于买方市场预期的担忧。同时，老铺黄金2025年上 半年的净利润率有所改善，约为19%（2024年上半年净利润率为16.7%，2024年下半年为17.8%）。不 过，瑞银此前在研报中指出，展望2025年下半年，市场对老铺黄金全年净利润55亿元人民币的预期仍然 过高，若黄金价格涨势放缓或停滞，将面临下行风险。 消息面上，老铺黄金发盈喜，预计2025年上半年实现销售业绩（含税收入）约138亿元至143亿元（人民 币，下同），较去年同期增长约240%至252%；收入约120亿元至125亿元，较去年同期增长约241%至 255%；非国际财务报告准则计量经调整净利润（不考虑以股份为基础的付款报酬影响）约23亿元至 23.6亿元，较去年同期增长约282%至292%；净利润约22.3亿元至22.8亿元，较去年同期增长约279%至 288%。 智通财经APP获悉，老铺黄金(06181)盈喜后倒跌近4%，值得关注的是，今年以来，老铺黄金股价持续 飙升，7月8日盘中一度突破1100 ...

Summary of Laopu Gold (6181.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - **Industry**: Cosmetics & Jewelry - **Market Cap**: HK$132.0 billion / $16.8 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$133.5 billion / $17.0 billion - **Current Price**: HK$764.50 - **Target Price**: HK$1,090.00 - **Upside Potential**: 42.6% [1][3] Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Profit Alert**: - Net Income (NI) expected between RMB2,230-2,280 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 279-288% [1] - Mid-point NI at RMB2,255 million, aligning with Goldman Sachs estimate (GSe) of RMB2,259 million [1] - Sales projected at RMB12-12.5 billion, up 241-255% year-over-year, but 4-7% lower than GSe [1] - Net Profit Margin (NPM) expected at 18.2-18.6%, above GSe of 17.4% [1] - Adjusted NI (excluding share-based payments) between RMB2,300-2,360 million, indicating 282-292% growth year-over-year [1] Growth Drivers - **Core Growth Drivers**: The company identified three core drivers for growth: brand, product, and channels. However, channel contributions were not significant in 1H25, with new store expansion and optimization expected to support revenue in 2H25 [2] - **Sales Growth**: The lower-than-expected sales in 1H25 are attributed to fewer new store openings, with more expected in 2H25 [3] Adjustments and Forecasts - **Earnings Adjustments**: Goldman Sachs adjusted its 2025E NI by 1% to RMB4.8 billion, reflecting better NPM, while maintaining the full-year sales estimate of RMB27 billion [3] - **Future Projections**: - Revenue forecasts for 2025E at RMB27,121.8 million, with EBITDA at RMB6,643.8 million [5] - EPS for 2025E projected at RMB28.12 [5] Strategic Focus Areas - **Key Focus for 1H25 Results**: - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) management, including price hikes and product mix upgrades [19] - Acceleration of store optimization for better locations and larger sizes [19] - Launch of high-ticket size SKUs for both ornaments and jewelry [19] - Overseas expansion opportunities, particularly in Singapore [19] Risks and Considerations - **Price Target Risks**: - Potential gold price fluctuations - Regulatory challenges in luxury consumption - Regional concentration risks - Overhang of IPO shares post lock-up expiry [22] Conclusion - Laopu Gold is positioned for significant growth with a strong profit outlook for 1H25, driven by improved margins and strategic store expansions. The company’s focus on optimizing its sales channels and exploring overseas markets presents additional upside potential. The current market conditions and strategic initiatives suggest a favorable risk-reward scenario for investors.