日百与服务收入支撑增长，新业务减亏路径清晰。零售业务结构优化，日百与3P生态贡献提升。分品 类来看，我们认为四季度带电品类预计收入同比下滑，主因家电、电脑数码受国补退坡影响。日百品类 受益于外卖流量协同及供应链优化，日百收入预计维持增长，商超、服装鞋帽等细分赛道表现强劲。佣 金与广告收入受益于3P 商家活跃度提升及营销投入加大，预计保持双位数增长，收入占比有望进一步 提升。新业务减亏路径清晰，外卖UE 持续改善。外卖业务通过补贴精细化、客单价提升或实现UE 改 善及季度亏损环比收窄，京喜与国际业务投入或小幅扩大，新业务总亏损可控。我们认为，随着外卖与 零售协同强化，外卖用户复购率提升，或带动核心零售活跃度。 机构：国联民生证券 研究员：孔蓉/曹睿 高基数与节日错期影响，25Q4 收入短期承压。从宏观环境来看，2025 年12 月份社会消费品零售总额同 比增速放缓至0.9%，主要系2024 年同期基数较高。从累计增速来看，2025 年社会消费品零售总额50.1 万亿元，比上年增长3.7%。 从线上消费来看，2025 年全国网上零售额159722 亿元，同比增长8.6%，其中实物商品网上零售额 130923 亿元 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival travel season will see an upgrade in ticket purchasing experience on the railway 12306 platform, with new payment options and benefits introduced by JD.com [1][2] - JD.com is integrating its payment and credit services into the travel decision-making process, enhancing user experience through a combination of discounts and lottery draws for free tickets [2] Group 1: Ticket Purchasing Experience - Starting immediately, travelers can use JD Pay or JD Baitiao for ticket purchases on the 12306 platform, with daily opportunities for ticket discounts up to 298 yuan per transaction [1] - In addition to discounts, JD Pay and Baitiao will launch a "10,000 free ticket lottery" to further enhance the purchasing experience during the Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Refund Policy and User Experience - The 12306 platform will also introduce a "limited-time free refund" service, allowing travelers to self-process refunds without fees under certain conditions [1] - This free refund mechanism, combined with discounts and lottery opportunities, aims to lower the barriers for ticket purchasing and enhance user confidence during peak travel times [1] Group 3: Technical Integration and User Engagement - JD.com’s collaboration with 12306 is not merely a price incentive but a strategic move to integrate payment, credit, and service offerings into high-frequency consumer scenarios [2] - The 12306 platform has a vast user base, with peak ticket sales reaching 21.626 million tickets in a single day during the Spring Festival, necessitating a stable payment system to ensure efficient ticket purchasing [2] - JD Pay and Baitiao have previously demonstrated their technical capabilities during major shopping events, ensuring a seamless payment experience that enhances overall user satisfaction [2]

此外，京东采销团队结合市场洞察，向非遗时尚品牌齐黛传递出香云纱三大消费趋势：设计年轻化、场景多元化 和工艺科技化。数据显示，京东齐黛品牌香云纱服饰的成交额同比增长超过130%。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者刘暄）近日，京东消费及产业发展研究院联合鄂尔多斯、高梵、可隆、齐黛、蕉下五 大品牌，共同发布《2025超级面料消费观察》。报告显示，以京东JD FASHION为代表的品质服饰标签，通过明 确性能标准、搭建透明指引，既降低消费者决策成本，又反向赋能品牌，推动品质面料从专业场景向日常普及。 京东数据显示，"四季羊毛"相关搜索量同比增长超20倍。"传统观念认为羊毛属于秋冬，但我们从京东消费趋势洞 察中发现，消费者对'一件应对多场景'的基础款需求强烈。"鄂尔多斯品牌相关负责人表示。 此外，京东采销团队 结合市场洞察，向非遗时尚品牌齐黛传递出香云纱三大消费趋势：设计年轻化、场景多元化和工艺科技化。数据 显示，京东齐黛品牌香云纱服饰的成交额同比增长超过130%。 京东服饰表示，将持续为消费者带来更优质、丰 富的潮流服饰好物，并携手更多品牌合作伙伴，共同构建服饰品质保障，为消费者带来更具确定性的服饰购物体 验。 京东服饰表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - JD.com, Inc. is facing significant challenges with a projected earnings per share (EPS) decline of 93.14% year-over-year, while revenue is expected to show a modest increase of 6.68% [2] Company Performance - JD.com closed at $29.07, reflecting a daily increase of 2.43%, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.16% [1] - Prior to this trading day, JD.com shares had decreased by 2.41%, underperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 3.08% [1] Earnings Forecast - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show an EPS of $0.07, a significant drop from the previous year [2] - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast an EPS of $2.5, indicating a decline of 41.31% compared to the previous year, with revenue expected to remain flat at $186.6 billion [3] Analyst Revisions - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for JD.com are crucial as they reflect changes in short-term business dynamics [4] - Positive revisions in estimates are seen as indicators of analysts' confidence in the company's performance [4] Valuation Metrics - JD.com has a Forward P/E ratio of 9.76, which is below the industry average of 16.81, indicating a potential undervaluation [7] - The company’s PEG ratio stands at 5.22, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.08, suggesting that the stock may be overvalued relative to its expected earnings growth [7] Industry Context - JD.com operates within the Internet - Commerce industry, which is currently ranked 190 out of over 250 industries, placing it in the bottom 23% [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% of rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,547.45, down by 37.61 points or 0.14% [1] - The index reached a high of 26,639.66 and a low of 26,442.66 during the trading session [1] - The average price for the day was 26,541.16, with a trading volume of 49.443 million shares [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at 129.700 HKD, up by 1.17% compared to the previous close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at 599.924 HKD, down by 0.43% compared to the previous close [2] - Alibaba Group (ADR) saw an increase of 2.19%, closing at 163.200 HKD [3] - Notable declines included NetEase, which fell by 3.70% to 208.000 HKD [3] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings (ADR) was priced at 599.924, reflecting a decrease of 0.43% compared to its Hong Kong price [3] - Alibaba's ADR was at 164.396, showing an increase of 0.73% compared to its Hong Kong price [3] - HSBC's ADR was at 129.700, indicating an increase of 1.17% compared to its Hong Kong price [3] - Other notable movements included Baidu Group, which increased by 3.29% to 153.700 HKD [3]

Group 1 - JD held an AI toy conference in Suqian, Jiangsu, where it launched the JoyInside integrated solution for smart hardware, emphasizing high compatibility across various hardware, scenarios, and sizes [1] - JD signed an agreement with the Suqiu District People's Government to establish an AI toy industrial belt in Suqian, aiming to create a regional benchmark for AI toy innovation and development [1] - The core of the JoyInside solution lies in its flexible and diverse integrated capabilities, with multiple mass-produced hardware cores covering a wide range of scenarios from plush toys to smart home devices [1] Group 2 - JD's newly launched second batch of self-developed AI toys targets not only children but also young adults and seniors, achieving coverage for users of all ages [2] - The average dialogue rounds for smart hardware connected to JoyInside have increased by over 120%, with many products selling out immediately and experiencing very low return rates [2] - As of now, JoyInside has integrated with over 40 leading hardware brands, covering various categories such as robots, robotic dogs, and AI toys, forming a comprehensive ecosystem from technology empowerment to product co-creation and channel collaboration [2] - During the 2025 "11.11" shopping festival, the sales revenue of products connected to JoyInside increased by over 20 times compared to the "618" event [2]

Core Insights - The AI toy market in China is rapidly growing, projected to reach 24.6 billion yuan in 2024 and 29 billion yuan in 2025, doubling the growth rate of traditional toys [1] - Major tech companies and IP giants are entering the AI toy sector, creating a multi-dimensional competitive landscape [3][4] - The emotional value of AI toys is becoming a key factor in consumer decision-making, shifting focus from mere functionality to emotional companionship [6][12] Market Dynamics - The AI toy market is characterized by a significant influx of major players, including internet giants and consumer electronics companies, leading to intense competition [3][4] - The market is currently in a "startup phase" with a focus on emotional connection and user experience, rather than just technological advancement [12][15] - The global AI toy market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14%-16% over the next decade, potentially exceeding $60 billion by 2034 [7] Product Development and Innovation - Companies are focusing on creating AI toys that cater to various age groups and needs, from children's education to elderly companionship [4][5] - Startups are leveraging emotional connections and niche market demands to differentiate themselves from larger competitors [5][10] - The integration of advanced AI technologies, such as natural language processing and emotional recognition, is crucial for product development [4][11] Ethical and Safety Concerns - The rise of AI toys raises significant ethical questions regarding data privacy, emotional dependency, and the potential impact on children's social skills [12][13][14] - Companies are urged to implement strict safety measures and ethical guidelines to protect user data and ensure the well-being of children [14][15] - The industry faces challenges related to content safety and the risk of harmful interactions, necessitating robust content filtering and security protocols [13][14] Future Outlook - The AI toy industry is expected to undergo a significant transformation, with a focus on value-driven competition rather than price wars [12][15] - Companies that can effectively balance technological innovation with emotional engagement and ethical considerations are likely to succeed in this evolving market [11][15] - The concept of "emotional economy" is becoming central to the development of AI toys, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards products that offer companionship and emotional support [12][15]

Core Insights - The AI toy market in China is rapidly growing, with projections indicating a market size of 246 billion yuan in 2024 and an expected increase to 290 billion yuan in 2025, which is double the growth rate of traditional toys [3][8] - Major tech companies and IP giants are entering the AI toy sector, creating a multi-dimensional competitive landscape, while traditional toy manufacturers and startups are adapting by leveraging their strengths [3][8] - The emotional connection and understanding of user needs are becoming the core value propositions of AI toys, shifting the focus from mere functionality to companionship [11][12] Market Dynamics - The AI toy market is characterized by significant participation from internet giants and leading consumer electronics companies, indicating a shift towards AI toys as the next generation of human-computer interaction and family data gateways [8][9] - Sales data shows a booming market, with products like "显眼包" achieving over 1.2 billion yuan in GMV within 48 hours of launch, and AI toys integrated with JoyInside seeing a 20-fold increase in sales during the "双11" shopping festival compared to earlier periods [14][16] - The market is still in its early stages, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 14%-16% over the next decade, potentially exceeding 60 billion USD by 2034 [13][22] Competitive Landscape - The entry of major players has created a protective barrier in the AI toy market, compelling traditional manufacturers and startups to innovate and differentiate themselves [9][18] - Different companies are focusing on various aspects of the market: internet giants on data and AI capabilities, consumer electronics firms on supply chain management, and IP companies on emotional connections and content creation [18][21] - The competition is expected to evolve into a differentiation strategy rather than a price war, with companies focusing on unique emotional and technological offerings [21][22] Consumer Trends - The AI toy market caters to a wide range of age groups, with children aged 3-12 making up 62% of the market, while the Z generation (ages 18-35) shows a 45% repurchase rate driven by emotional needs [22] - The demand for AI toys is fueled by the increasing need for companionship among various demographics, including children, young adults, and the elderly [22][25] - The emotional value of AI toys is becoming a key selling point, with consumers seeking products that provide companionship rather than just functionality [12][22] Ethical and Safety Concerns - The rapid growth of the AI toy market raises concerns about data privacy, as these toys collect sensitive information from users, particularly children [23][27] - There are worries about the potential negative impact of AI toys on children's social skills and emotional development, as reliance on these products may hinder real-life interactions [25][27] - Industry experts emphasize the need for strict content filtering and data protection measures to ensure the safety and ethical use of AI toys [27][28]

编辑｜微胖 这，很不京东 要不是 App Logo 上那只举着魔法棒的小狗先「剧透」，你很难把它和京东联系在一起。 点开「京东 AI 购」，反直觉几乎是瞬间发生。没有信息洪流扑面而来，也看不到叠床架屋的功能入口，页面干净到几乎只剩一个对话框。 等等，这不是个聊天 App ？这真是用来「买东西」的地方？ 主站 VS 新A pp 页面设计，完全是两个世界。 它不像一个电商 App ，更不像那个你已经用了很多的京东，总是强调效率、审美多少有点「直男」的货架工具。 那一刻的感觉，更像是一个已经和你混熟的助理，提前一步意识到：你现在，可能正需要这些。 点开卡片会自动生成一份基础指南，还有同类产品推荐。 直到上手用过几次之后，我才意识到一个更大的变化正在发生。生活服务这件事，正在被压缩成一句话。 比如，「一句话，决策完成」。直接抛出需求：「小学生月底去鄱阳湖观鸟，作为观鸟新手，需要准备哪些装备？」 过去需要查攻略、抄清单、逐一比对的过程，被压缩成了一次「直接交卷」。 系统接住的不是关键词，而是一整个场景，装备被拆解、推理、重新组合成一套「省心方案」：双筒望远镜、防风外套、防蚊用品，甚至连折叠椅、观鸟 笔记本和铅笔，都被一 ...

通过这样一份"配货大数据"，在年货订单高峰到来前，精准洞察各环节运行状态，智能预测销量、提供 补货建议并就近入仓，智能调配、稳健有序，真正实现"订单未下，货已先行"，并通过优化调配布局在 离消费者最近的地方。 而随着马年春节脚步临近，全国年货采购热潮持续升温，跨城寄递、即时配送等物流需求即将迎来增长 高峰。为此，京东物流将坚守承诺，全力做好春节物流安全保障，以更优的覆盖方案开展好仓储配送、 快递收寄、家电送装维修、即时配送等服务。通过春节期间最稳定的超级供应链服务，让亿万消费者获 得"又快又省心"春节购物体验，也助力商家在春节期间安全平稳运营、扩量增收。 今年年货节期间，京东围绕新春消费场景推出新年开运、爱家、焕新、送礼四大惊喜日活动，不仅有众 多明星同款好物优惠五折起，马年限定好礼1元起拍卖，3C数码、智能家电、新年新衣等全品类热门年 货专属优惠。还有众多个性化服务即将上线，如厨卫家电享5年损坏五折换新、智能手表上线60天碎屏 免费换新等，全方位护航年货采购。 其中1月27日至1月28日，新年开运惊喜日将为消费者带来海量服饰美妆好物，助力消费者以崭新面貌迎 接新春，更有各类红品好物官方直降不止五折；紧随其后 ...