机构：招商证券 研究员：丁浙川/胡馨媛 电商利润增长超预期，外卖亏损高于预期，关注后续外卖业务投入进展。利润端，Q2 京东毛利率 15.9%（一致预期15.5%），同比+0.12pct，经营利润率-0.2%（预期3.5%），同比-3.8pct，其中京东零 售经营利润139.4 亿元，同比+37.9%，高于一致预期的+19.2%，OPM 为4.5%，京东强大自营供应链壁 垒所带来的强议价能力及精细化运营能力继续带动毛利率及零售经营利润率稳步提升；京东物流经营利 润19.6 亿元（预期23 亿元）；新业务经营利润-147.77 亿元，低于一致预期的-92 亿，外卖亏损高于预 期。集团Non-gaap 归母净利润本季度为73.94 亿元，同比-48.9%，高于一致预期的-60%。预计三季度外 卖旺季公司将持续开展外卖业务投入,全年集团利润需进一步观察外卖业务后续投入进展。 外卖业务稳健发展，关注长期与电商及即时零售业务的协同发展。Q2 京东外卖稳健发展，在商家供 给、骑手运力和用户体验上不断改进，Q2 全职骑手突破5万人，入驻品质商家超过150 万家，品质正餐 订单占比持续上升，同时在系统能力上也有持续快速改进，外 ...

Group 1 - The core categories of electronic products and home appliances are experiencing a recovery in growth, benefiting from the trade-in policy [1][3] - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 27.7 billion, 46 billion, and 52.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -42%, +66%, and +15% respectively [1] - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate [2] Group 2 - The company's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 4.5%, while the logistics operating profit margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 3.8% [2] - New business losses were higher than expected, primarily due to continued investments in the food delivery segment [2][3] - The company repurchased approximately 2.8% of its outstanding common shares as of December 31, 2024, with a remaining repurchase amount of 3.5 billion dollars [3]

机构：华泰证券 研究员：夏路路/侯杰 风险提示：外卖等新业务投入超预期，以旧换新活动效果退坡。 京东2Q25 营收同增22.4%至3,567 亿元，优于VA 一致预期/华泰预测的+15.0/+15.6%，非GAAP 归母净 利润74 亿元，同比-48.9%，优于一致预期/华泰预测的-58.8/-69.9%，主因零售板块经营利润释放好于预 期和非经常性损益及所得税情况好于预期。在外卖行业激化的竞争中，我们预计京东的投入或在3Q25 起进入效率优化阶段，但整体投入量级受季度总订单量环比增长明显影响或继续维持在较高水平（2Q 估算为130-140 亿元）。展望后续，京东如何长效留存其通过国补行动与外卖业务探索获得的新用户并 提升核心客户的活跃度，将是其核心零售业务下一阶段增长的关键，建议持续关注。维持"买入"评级。 活跃买家增长迅速，国补利好下带电品类延续加速增长2Q25 京东零售总收入3,101 亿元，同增20.6%， 经营利润139 亿元，同增37.9%，优于一致预期的同增17.5%，主因国补带动的经营效率改善和收入的超 预期增长。管理层指出京东零售季度活跃买家数同比增长超40%，连续7 个季度实现双位数增长。 ...

Revenue Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 356.7 billion yuan in the quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 22% [1] - JD Retail revenue was 310.1 billion yuan, up 21% year-over-year, with self-operated categories benefiting from national subsidies, increasing by 23% [1] - JD Logistics revenue reached 51.6 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 17%, significantly accelerated compared to Q1, driven by strong retail growth [1] New Business Development - New business revenue was 13.9 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 199%, but incurred an operating loss of 14.8 billion yuan primarily due to the impact of the takeaway business [2] - The peak daily order volume exceeded 25 million, leading to a notable increase in user traffic, with QAC and purchase frequency both up 40% year-over-year [2] - The company is enhancing system capabilities and deepening e-commerce synergies to drive more GMV conversion [2] Profitability Analysis - The company's non-GAAP net profit was 7.4 billion yuan, down 49% year-over-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.1% [2] - Retail business operating profit margin (OPM) was 4.5%, up 0.6 percentage points year-over-year, driven by scale effects and improved supply chain efficiency [2] - New business OPM was -107%, reflecting increased investment in the takeaway segment, with expectations of further losses during the peak season [2] Future Outlook - The company slightly raised revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,335.4 billion, 1,420.2 billion, and 1,488.7 billion yuan, with adjustments of 2%, 1%, and 0% respectively [3] - Due to higher-than-expected losses in the new business segment, the forecast for annual operating losses was adjusted from 16.4 billion to 42.7 billion yuan [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 were lowered to 29.2 billion, 40.2 billion, and 56 billion yuan, with adjustments of -35%, -23%, and -2% respectively [3]

Group 1 - Michael Burry, a well-known hedge fund manager, has significantly changed his stance on Chinese stocks in Q2 of this year, moving from short positions to buying call options for Alibaba and JD.com [1][3] - Burry's investment strategy shifted dramatically from a bearish outlook in Q1, where he sold off most of his positions, to a bullish approach in Q2, indicating a reassessment of the future prospects of Chinese assets [3] - As of the end of last year, Burry's portfolio had over 50% exposure to Chinese stocks, including Alibaba, JD.com, Baidu, and Pinduoduo, highlighting a substantial commitment to these companies [3] Group 2 - Several foreign institutions are reassessing the value of Chinese assets, with Goldman Sachs noting a resurgence of interest among international investors in the Chinese stock market [4] - China's core competitive advantages are becoming more apparent, with a complete modern industrial system and significant advancements in manufacturing capabilities, leading to a shift in perception from low-cost to high-quality products [4] - In key technology sectors such as AI, semiconductors, new energy, and aerospace, China has made substantial investments, positioning itself competitively on a global scale and attracting renewed interest from international capital [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of JD's food delivery business, highlighting its significant losses and strategic shift towards a more sustainable growth model amidst fierce competition in the delivery sector [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2, JD reported a new business loss of 14.7 billion, exceeding investor expectations, with net profit down 51% year-on-year [4][5]. - Total revenue grew by 22.4% to 356.7 billion, with the new business segment, including food delivery, seeing a revenue increase of 198.8% to 13.852 billion [8][13]. - The core retail business remains the strongest performer, with a revenue increase of 20.6% and an operating profit margin of 4.5%, marking the highest record for JD during major promotional periods [5][13]. Strategic Shifts - JD is adopting a more pragmatic approach in the food delivery sector, focusing on building a solid foundation rather than competing aggressively for market share [4][7]. - The company aims to enhance user, merchant, and delivery personnel experiences while prioritizing quality over quantity in its service offerings [5][10]. Market Position and Competition - The competitive landscape has shifted, with JD becoming a quieter player in the "delivery war," as rivals like Taobao and Meituan ramp up their efforts [7][11]. - JD's strategy includes avoiding direct competition with rivals during peak promotional periods, instead opting to support quality merchants through subsidies [7][8]. User Engagement and Growth - JD's active user base saw a significant increase, with daily active users up 35% and monthly active users up 17% year-on-year [8][9]. - The company is working on enhancing cross-selling capabilities between its food delivery and core retail businesses, although the effectiveness of this strategy remains uncertain [10][11]. Future Outlook - JD's management emphasizes a focus on sustainable business models rather than engaging in excessive competition, aiming for long-term growth through operational improvements and user experience enhancements [11][12]. - The company acknowledges the role of government subsidies in its recent performance but does not intend to rely on them as a long-term strategy [12][13].

以下文章来源于商业弧光 ，作者苗正卿 商业弧光 . 听风者，捕光人，最准点的商业节拍 出品｜虎嗅商业消费组 作者｜苗正卿 题图｜视觉中国 京东可能会重新思考外卖这件事的意义和策略。 8月14日晚，在京东财报会议上，超过一半的提问都围绕外卖和即时零售业务而来。大部分针对外卖的提问都 涉及到了"投入与产出"、"用户增长"、"利润率"。 其中高盛的提问很具有代表性："现在这个领域有三家公司，甚至更多企业参与竞争。其实最终拼的是耐力、执 行力和差异化。考虑到第一名公司规模最大，第二名有非常雄厚的资金实力，作为目前的第三名，京东应如何 思考自身在投入和长期经营上的决心？如果未来我们需要在外卖领域持续投入较长一段时间，可能也会产生亏 损，我们应该如何评估流量入口的用户获客成本、交叉销售的机会，以及用户体验（ UE ）的提升空间？" 这正是京东2025年第二季度业务和财报的一个缩影：在连续发力外卖、即时零售等业务两个季度后，围绕新业 务的投入正在改变京东既有的"业绩盘"，如何让这些业务在未来成为京东整体"有机的一环"，更是成为关键命 题。 影响京东净利润的核心原因，是针对新业务的投入，财报显示新业务整体亏损额达到148亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23]. Core Views - The company reported strong retail growth, with a revenue of 356.7 billion yuan for the quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 22%. The retail segment alone generated 310.1 billion yuan, up 21% year-over-year, driven by robust performance in self-operated categories and a continuous improvement in operational capabilities [10][11]. - New business revenue reached 13.9 billion yuan, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 199%, although it incurred an operating loss of 14.8 billion yuan primarily due to investments in the food delivery business [2][11]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its system capabilities and deepening e-commerce synergies to drive further growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) [11]. Revenue Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, with retail revenue contributing 310.1 billion yuan, and logistics revenue at 51.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 17% [10][11]. - The retail business continues to benefit from government subsidies, particularly in the home appliance category, which grew by 23% year-over-year [10][11]. Profitability Summary - The non-GAAP net profit for the company was 7.4 billion yuan, down 49% year-over-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.1% [2][11]. - The operating profit margin (OPM) for the retail business was 4.5%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-over-year, indicating improvements in procurement costs and supply chain efficiency [11]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,335.4 billion yuan, 1,420.2 billion yuan, and 1,488.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting slight upward adjustments [2][23]. - Due to increased losses in the new business segment, the forecast for annual operating losses has been revised from 16.4 billion yuan to 42.7 billion yuan [2][23].

Core Insights - The digital economy has transformed payment systems from mere transaction tools into a vital part of the "digital new infrastructure," enhancing settlement efficiency and optimizing capital flow, thus driving the growth of the real economy [1][5] - JD Pay and White Bar have expanded their partnerships with over 100 leading companies across various industries, including Pizza Hut, KFC, and 12306, providing consumers with tangible discounts and creating new growth opportunities for merchants through diverse payment solutions [1][3] Group 1: Payment Innovations - JD Pay offers various payment methods, supporting both online and offline transactions, and has achieved full scenario coverage, serving over 100 leading key account enterprises [4] - The rapid payment experience is highlighted by features such as one-click card binding and three-second payment processing [4] - White Bar has evolved from a single credit consumption product to a comprehensive financial service ecosystem, linking over 2 million merchants with 270 million consumers [5] Group 2: Consumer Benefits - Consumers benefit from various discounts, such as "29 off 10" at Pizza Hut and significant reductions on train tickets, showcasing the practical advantages of using JD Pay [3] - The integration of diverse consumption scenarios provides consumers with small but meaningful savings, enhancing their overall shopping experience [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - The People's Bank of China and six other departments have issued guidelines to support consumption, emphasizing the need to optimize payment services and enhance the consumption environment [3] - The value of payment infrastructure is being redefined as JD Pay and White Bar deepen their integration into essential consumer sectors like dining, travel, and retail, thus improving transaction efficiency and contributing to economic growth [5]

Core Insights - JD Group's Q2 FY2025 financial report highlights robust growth in a challenging market, with total revenue reaching RMB 356.66 billion, a 22.4% increase year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of RMB 335.45 billion [1] - Despite a slight decline in net profit, adjusted net profit under non-GAAP was RMB 74 billion, indicating ongoing profitability after financial restructuring [1] - The adjusted earnings per ADS were RMB 4.97, significantly exceeding the market estimate of RMB 3.78, showcasing strong earnings stability [1] Retail Segment Performance - The retail segment reported net revenue of RMB 3.101 trillion, a year-over-year growth of 20.6%, reflecting strong growth momentum [2] - Operating income for JD Retail reached RMB 139 billion, up from RMB 101 billion in Q2 2024, demonstrating significant improvement [2] - The operating profit margin increased from 3.9% in Q2 2024 to 4.5% in Q2 2025, further validating the profitability and operational efficiency of JD Retail [2] Financial Data Summary - JD Retail net revenues rose from RMB 257.07 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 310.08 billion in Q2 2025 [3] - JD Logistics net revenues increased from RMB 44.21 billion to RMB 51.56 billion during the same period [3] - New Businesses segment revenues surged from RMB 4.64 billion to RMB 13.85 billion, indicating strong growth in this area [3]