Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved comprehensive profitability in Q4 2024, driven by growth in gaming and advertising sectors [4][5] - The revenue for 2024 reached 26.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with Q4 revenue at 7.734 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.52 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses in previous periods [4] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with projected net profits of 5.13 billion yuan, 19.19 billion yuan, and 27.29 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 36.1% in Q4 2024, an increase of 10.0 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The sales expense ratio was 16.0%, management expense ratio was 6.5%, and R&D expense ratio was 11.9% in Q4 2024, indicating effective cost control [5] - The company’s daily active users (DAU) reached 103 million, with a monthly active user (MAU) count of 340 million, reflecting a stable and growing community ecosystem [6] - The average daily video views reached 4.8 billion, with a monthly interaction count of 15.5 billion, showcasing strong user engagement [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.2 yuan, 4.6 yuan, and 6.5 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 138.2, 36.9, and 26.0 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved comprehensive profitability in Q4 2024, driven by growth in gaming and advertising sectors [4] - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a narrowed net loss of 0.39 billion yuan compared to a loss of 33.75 billion yuan in the previous year [4] - Q4 2024 revenue reached 7.734 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.89 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [4] - The company expects continued growth in gaming, membership, advertising, and IP monetization, leading to revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 30.731 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.5% [7] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at 0.513 billion yuan, with an EPS of 1.2 yuan, and a P/E ratio of 138.2 times [7] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 36.1%, reflecting a 10.0 percentage point increase year-on-year, indicating improved monetization efficiency [5] - Daily active users (DAU) reached 103 million in Q4 2024, with a monthly active user (MAU) count of 340 million, showing a stable and growing community ecosystem [6]

公司点评报告 ·传媒互联网行业 利能力不断改善,社区生态持续繁荣 2024Q4 业绩点评 2025 年 2 月 20 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 26,832 | 31,340 | 33,800 | 35,873 | | 收入增长率 | 19.1% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | | Non-GAAP 归母净利润(百万元) | -39 | 1.274 | 3.564 | 5.468 | | 毛利率 | 32.7% | 39.1% | 41.4% | 43.9% | | P/S | 2.24 | 1.92 | 1.78 | 1.68 | | Non-GAAP P/E | | 47.21 | 16.87 | 11.00 | 资料来源:公司公告,中国银河证券研究院 | | | | | | 分析师 岳铮 ☎：010-8092-7630 @: yuezheng_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S01305220 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of $26.40 per ADS, up from the previous target of $22.00 [1][5][27]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 77.3 billion for Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 4.53 billion, surpassing expectations by 15% [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by strong performance in mobile gaming and advertising sectors, with mobile game revenue increasing by 79% year-on-year [2][3]. - The management has reiterated its long-term operating profit margin target of 15-20%, which is expected to boost investor confidence [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY24, total revenue is projected to grow by 19% to RMB 268 billion, with an adjusted net loss reduced by 99% to RMB 2.21 billion [1][4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 total revenue to increase by 22% year-on-year, with mobile gaming, advertising, and value-added services (VAS) revenues expected to grow by 73%, 19%, and 10% respectively [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - VAS revenue grew by 8% to RMB 30.8 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue in Q4 2024, driven by increased premium membership and fan payment revenues [2]. - Advertising revenue increased by 24% to RMB 23.9 billion, representing 31% of total revenue, attributed to strong growth in performance advertising [2]. - Mobile gaming revenue surged by 79% to RMB 18 billion, making up 23% of total revenue, mainly due to new contributions [2]. Profitability Metrics - Gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 10 percentage points to 36.1% in Q4 2024, while adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) rose by 17 percentage points to 6.0% [3]. - For Q1 2025, adjusted OPM is expected to grow by 12 percentage points to 3.3% despite content investments for the Spring Festival Gala [3]. Valuation and Estimates - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating the advertising business at $1.05 billion, VAS at $800 million, and mobile gaming at $800 million, with a total valuation of approximately $8.06 billion [16][17]. - The projected revenue for FY25 is RMB 30.42 billion, with a gross profit margin of 37.3% and an adjusted net profit of RMB 1.75 billion [12][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Bilibili, with a target price raised to US$26.4 from the previous US$22.0, indicating a potential upside of 19.4% from the current price of US$22.11 [3][11]. Core Insights - Bilibili's 4Q24 earnings exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in mobile games and advertising, with total revenue increasing by 22% year-over-year to RMB7.73 billion [1][6]. - The company reported an adjusted net income of RMB453 million, a significant improvement from an adjusted net loss of RMB556 million in 4Q23, reflecting a narrowing of the adjusted net loss for FY24 to RMB22.1 million [1][2]. - Management has set a long-term operating profit margin (OPM) target of 15-20%, up from 6% in 4Q24, which is expected to enhance investor confidence [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, total revenue reached RMB26.8 billion, marking a 19% year-over-year growth, while the adjusted net loss narrowed by 99% year-over-year [1][2]. - Revenue projections for FY25E and FY26E are set at RMB30.4 billion and RMB32.6 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 13.4% and 7.1% [2][7]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 37.3% in FY25E, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB1.75 billion [2][7]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from mobile games surged by 79% year-over-year to RMB1.80 billion in 4Q24, contributing 23% to total revenue [6]. - Advertising revenue grew by 24% year-over-year to RMB2.39 billion, driven by a 40% increase in performance ad revenues and a 30% rise in the number of advertisers [6]. - Value-added services (VAS) revenue increased by 8% year-over-year to RMB3.08 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue, supported by premium membership and the Fan Charging program [6]. Margin and Profitability Outlook - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 10 percentage points year-over-year to 36.1% in 4Q24, with adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) rising by 17 percentage points to 6.0% [6]. - For FY25E, the adjusted OPM is expected to expand to 5.8%, with long-term targets set at 40-45% for GPM and 15-20% for OPM [6][11]. Valuation Metrics - The SOTP valuation indicates a target price of US$26.4 per ADS, with the advertising business valued at US$10.5, VAS at US$8.0, and mobile games at US$8.0 [11][12]. - The report highlights that the target price reflects a 2.6x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for 2025E [11].

Operational & User Growth - Bilibili's MAUs reached 340 million[5], DAUs reached 103 million[5] in Q4 2024 - Average daily time spent per user reached 99 minutes[5] in Q4 2024 - DAUs increased from 54 million in Q4 2020 to 103 million in Q4 2024[7] Financial Performance - Bilibili's total net revenues reached RMB 26832 million in 2024, a 19% year-over-year increase[62] - Gross profit increased by 61% year-over-year, reaching RMB 8774 million in 2024[78] - Advertising revenues increased by 28% year-over-year, reaching RMB 8189 million in 2024[49] - Mobile game revenues increased by 40% year-over-year, reaching RMB 5610 million in 2024[58] - Bilibili achieved a gross profit margin of 361% in Q4 2024[10] Community & Content - Approximately 40% of DAUs viewed video and live commerce related content[16] - Over 31 million content creators received income on Bilibili in 2024[25] - Total GMV from video and live commerce increased by over 150% year-over-year in 2024[46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q4 reached RMB 7.7 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 22%, while full-year revenues were RMB 26.8 billion, up 19% year-over-year [8][37] - The company achieved its first GAAP net profit in Q4 at RMB 89 million, with adjusted net profit reaching RMB 452 million [9][41] - Gross profit margin improved to 36.1% in Q4, up from 26.1% in the same period last year, contributing to a 68% year-over-year growth in gross profit [9][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advertising revenues increased by 24% year-over-year in Q4 to RMB 2.4 billion, and for the full year, it grew by 28% to RMB 8.2 billion [22][64] - Mobile games revenues surged by 79% year-over-year in Q4 to RMB 1.8 billion, and for the year, it increased by 40% to RMB 5.6 billion [27][38] - VAS revenues grew by 8% in Q4 to RMB 3.1 billion and by 11% for the full year to RMB 11 billion [30][38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Daily Active Users (DAUs) reached 103 million, while Monthly Active Users (MAUs) were 340 million, with users spending an average of 99 minutes daily on the platform [10][18] - The user base represents nearly 70% of China's Gen Z population, with an average age of 25, indicating a strong consumer demographic [10][66] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its content, community, and commercialization strategies, focusing on high-quality content as a key driver for user engagement and monetization [13][49] - The integration of AI technology is seen as a significant opportunity to enhance content creation and user engagement, leveraging high-quality data assets [12][58] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the advertising business growth in 2025, expecting to maintain above-industry growth rates [24][74] - The company plans to continue expanding its user base and enhancing brand awareness through strategic partnerships and high-quality content initiatives [102][101] Other Important Information - The company completed a share repurchase program of up to USD 200 million, reflecting confidence in its cash flow generation [42][43] - The partnership with CCTV for the Spring Festival Gala significantly increased DAUs by 20% year-over-year during the event [96][99] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the overall strategy for 2025 and the role of AI? - Management highlighted the importance of high-quality content and community growth as central to the strategy for 2025, with AI integration expected to enhance user engagement and content creation [46][47] Question: Can you elaborate on the drivers for strong advertisement growth in 2024? - The advertising business saw significant growth due to a high-quality user base and improved ad efficiency, with performance-based ads growing over 40% year-over-year [63][66] Question: What are the expectations for gross and net margins in 2025? - Management expects continued gross margin expansion, targeting a long-term gross margin of 40% to 45% and an operating profit margin of 15% to 20% [76][80] Question: How will the company expand its user base and brand awareness? - The company plans to leverage successful partnerships and high-quality content initiatives to attract new users and enhance brand equity [93][102]

Financial Performance - Bilibili reported quarterly earnings of $0.15 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.14 per share, compared to a loss of $0.19 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 7.14% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.08 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.12%, and showing an increase from year-ago revenues of $881.13 million [2] Stock Performance - Bilibili shares have increased approximately 12.3% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 4.5% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.09 on revenues of $966.81 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.54 on revenues of $4.17 billion [7] Industry Outlook - The Broadcast Radio and Television industry, to which Bilibili belongs, is currently ranked in the top 29% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Cumulus Media, another company in the same industry, is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.58 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +77.7%, with revenues anticipated to be $218.8 million, down 1.1% from the previous year [9][10]

Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, Bilibili reported total net revenue of RMB 7.734 billion (USD 1.060 billion), a year-over-year increase of 22%[9] - Advertising revenue for Q4 2024 reached RMB 2.389 billion (USD 327 million), up 24% year-over-year, while full-year advertising revenue was RMB 8.189 billion (USD 1.122 billion), increasing by 28%[9] - Mobile gaming revenue in Q4 2024 was RMB 1.798 billion (USD 246 million), a significant increase of 79% year-over-year, with full-year revenue at RMB 5.610 billion (USD 769 million), up 40%[9] - Total net revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB 7.734 billion (USD 1.060 billion), an increase of 22% compared to the same period in 2023[11] - For the fiscal year 2024, total net revenue was RMB 26.832 billion (USD 3.676 billion), an increase of 19% compared to 2023[18] Profitability - Gross profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 2.788 billion (USD 382 million), representing a 68% year-over-year increase, while the gross margin improved to 36.1% from 26.1% in Q4 2023[9] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 889 million (USD 122 million), a turnaround from a net loss of RMB 1.297 billion in the same period last year, with the full-year net loss narrowing by 72% to RMB 1.364 billion (USD 187 million)[9] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 452 million (USD 61.9 million), compared to an adjusted net loss of RMB 556 million in the previous year[9] - Adjusted net loss for the fiscal year 2024 was RMB 390 million (USD 53 million), a 99% reduction compared to the previous year[25] - The net loss for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB (4,811,713) thousand, while the net loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB (1,363,651) thousand[52] Cash Flow and Expenses - Operating cash flow for Q4 2024 was RMB 1.401 billion (USD 192 million), significantly up from RMB 640 million in Q4 2023, with full-year operating cash flow at RMB 6.015 billion (USD 824 million)[9] - Operating expenses totaled RMB 2.662 billion (USD 365 million), a decrease of 10% year-over-year[14] - Cash and cash equivalents, along with short-term investments, amounted to RMB 16.544 billion (USD 2.267 billion) as of December 31, 2024[25] - The company incurred expenses of RMB 354,811 thousand related to the termination of several game projects for the year ended December 31, 2023[52] User Engagement - Daily active users (DAUs) reached 103 million in Q4 2024, an increase from 100 million in the same period last year[9] Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to leverage new AI models to enhance its commercial efficiency and unlock greater value from its unique community[10] - Bilibili repurchased USD 865 million worth of American Depositary Shares and convertible preferred bonds during the year to enhance shareholder returns[10] - The company announced a share repurchase plan to buy back up to $200 million of publicly traded securities within 24 months, with approximately 840,000 American Depositary Shares repurchased at a total cost of $16.4 million as of December 31, 2024[26] - The company completed a tender offer for the repurchase of its 0.50% convertible senior notes due in December 2026, with a total principal amount of $419 million repurchased for a total cash consideration of $419 million[28] Financial Metrics and Reporting - The company utilizes non-GAAP financial metrics such as adjusted operating profit/loss and adjusted net profit/loss to assess its operating performance and inform financial and operational decisions[33] - The company emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP metrics in identifying underlying business trends by excluding certain expenses and gains/losses related to equity incentives and acquisitions[34] - The company’s financial data is presented in thousands, with specific currency conversions based on an exchange rate of 7.2993 RMB to 1 USD as of December 31, 2024[35] Future Outlook - The company expects total net revenue for the fiscal year 2024 to reach approximately RMB 26,831,525, representing a growth of 19.3% compared to the previous year[41] - The company acknowledges inherent risks and uncertainties in its forward-looking statements, which may affect actual performance and financial condition[37] Conference Call - The company will hold an earnings conference call on February 20, 2025, at 7:00 AM EST to discuss its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 results[29]

Core Insights - Bilibili achieved its first quarter of GAAP profitability in Q4 2024, marking a significant milestone for the company [3] - The company reported a total net revenue of RMB 26.83 billion (US$3.68 billion) for the fiscal year 2024, representing a 19% year-over-year increase [5][17] - Daily active users (DAUs) reached 103 million, while monthly active users (MAUs) were 340 million, with users spending an average of 99 minutes daily on the platform [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total net revenues were RMB 7.73 billion (US$1,059.6 million), a 22% increase from Q4 2023 [4][5] - Advertising revenues in Q4 2024 were RMB 2.39 billion (US$327.2 million), up 24% year-over-year, driven by improved advertising efficiency [6][17] - Mobile games revenues surged to RMB 1.80 billion (US$246.3 million) in Q4 2024, reflecting a 79% increase from the same period last year [7] - Gross profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 2.79 billion (US$382.0 million), a 68% increase year-over-year, with a gross profit margin of 36.1% [10][14] Cost and Expenses - Total operating expenses decreased by 10% year-over-year to RMB 2.66 billion (US$364.7 million) in Q4 2024 [10] - Research and development expenses fell by 31% year-over-year to RMB 919.3 million (US$125.9 million) due to one-off termination expenses from previous projects [12][23] - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 10% year-over-year to RMB 1.24 billion (US$169.4 million) [11] Profitability Metrics - The company reported a net profit of RMB 88.9 million (US$12.2 million) for Q4 2024, compared to a net loss of RMB 1.30 billion in the same period last year [14][25] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 452.0 million (US$61.9 million), a significant improvement from an adjusted net loss of RMB 555.8 million in Q4 2023 [14][30] - For the full year 2024, the net loss narrowed by 72% to RMB 1.36 billion (US$186.8 million) [25] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased approximately US$864.8 million worth of outstanding ADSs and convertible senior notes during 2024 [3] - A share repurchase program of up to US$200 million was approved by the board, with US$16.4 million repurchased by the end of 2024 [28] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Operating cash flow for the full year 2024 was RMB 6.01 billion (US$824.0 million), compared to RMB 266.6 million in 2023 [16][26] - As of December 31, 2024, Bilibili had cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB 16.54 billion (US$2.27 billion) [27]