Core Viewpoint - New Oriental (EDU.US) reported a 6.1% year-over-year increase in net revenue for Q1, reaching $1.523 billion, exceeding expectations, indicating a potential end to the challenging downturn cycle for FY2025 [1] Financial Performance - The adjusted performance of New Oriental is projected to have over a 10% upward adjustment compared to Bloomberg's expectations, suggesting a return to profitability growth [1] - The company's capital return rate has surpassed 5%, reflecting strong financial health [1] Business Segments - The K12 business segment is expected to accelerate growth by the end of November 2026, driven by a more favorable competitive environment, strong customer retention rates, and improvements in the Xi'an market [1] - The overseas business is also showing positive trends, supported by an increase in child registrations and robust performance in Asian markets, with management noting consistent quarterly improvements since May [1] Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley has raised New Oriental's target price from $60.4 to $68.8, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

EF001 EF001 免責聲明 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券的相關信息 發行人所發行上市權證/可轉換債券 不適用 其他信息 其他信息 不適用 發行人董事 於本公告日期，本公司董事會包括董事俞敏洪先生、周成剛先生及謝東螢先生；以及獨立董事李彥宏先生、李廷斌先生及諸葛越博 士。 | 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因 公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 | | | --- | --- | | 股票發行人現金股息公告 | | | 發行人名稱 | 新东方教育科技（集团）有限公司 | | 股份代號 | 09901 | | 多櫃檯股份代號及貨幣 | 不適用 | | 相關股份代號及名稱 | 不適用 | | 公告標題 | 內幕消息 - 宣派現金股息及採納股份回購計劃 | | 公告日期 | 2025年10月28日 | | 公告狀態 | 新公告 | | 股息信息 | | | 股息類型 | 其他 | | 普通現金股息 - 第二期 | | | 股息性質 | 普通股息 | | 財政年末 | 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities reports that New Oriental Education's business fundamentals are stable, with positive guidance on K12 education business and profit margins starting from Q2 [1] Financial Performance - For FY2026 Q1 (June 1, 2025 - August 31, 2025), the company achieved net revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous quarter's guidance of $1.464 to $1.507 billion [1] - Operating profit for the same period was $311 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $241 million, a year-over-year decrease of 1.9%, while Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, a decrease of 1.6% [1] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders to reach $568 million, $642 million, and $707 million for FY2026-2028, representing year-over-year growth of 9.7%, 13.2%, and 10.0% respectively [1] - Starting from FY26, the company plans to allocate no less than 50% of its net profit attributable to shareholders for shareholder returns, as part of a three-year shareholder return plan [1] Shareholder Returns - On July 29, the company announced a plan to distribute approximately $190 million in cash dividends and approved a share repurchase plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 FY26 reached $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with the education business (including cultural tourism) generating $1.366 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year [6]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was $336 million, reflecting an 11.3% increase, with a Non-GAAP operating margin of 22%, expanding by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. - The company announced a shareholder return plan, distributing $190 million in cash dividends and repurchasing up to $300 million in stock [6]. Revenue and Business Performance - The overseas examination training and consulting business generated $328 million in revenue, growing 1% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed by 19 percentage points compared to the previous year [7]. - New business segments, including K9 non-academic training and learning machines, maintained high growth, with Q1 revenue increasing 15% to $403 million [7]. - The number of teaching locations increased to 1,347, a 24% year-on-year growth, continuing the trend of high expansion [7]. Profitability and Financial Forecast - The company expects Q2 FY26 revenue to grow by 9-12% year-on-year, which is higher than the full-year guidance of 5-10% growth [9]. - Revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been revised upwards to $5.38 billion, $5.98 billion, and $6.73 billion, respectively [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY26-FY28 have also been increased to $555 million, $610 million, and $679 million, respectively [9]. Financial Data Summary - The projected revenue and net profit figures for FY24 to FY28 are as follows: - FY24 Revenue: $4.314 billion, Net Profit: $464 million - FY25 Revenue: $4.900 billion, Net Profit: $517 million - FY26E Revenue: $5.383 billion, Net Profit: $555 million - FY27E Revenue: $5.978 billion, Net Profit: $610 million - FY28E Revenue: $6.725 billion, Net Profit: $679 million [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for New Oriental (09901.HK) by 12.8% to HKD 53, maintaining an "Overweight" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance and growth potential [1] Financial Performance - The adjusted company performance shows over 10% growth potential, suggesting the end of the downturn cycle in the fiscal year 2025 [1] - Despite a decline in U.S. stock prices, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about New Oriental's return to profitability and growth trajectory [1] Capital Returns - The capital return rate for New Oriental has exceeded 5%, reflecting strong financial health and investor confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for New Oriental (9901.HK) by 12.8%, from HKD 47 to HKD 53, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1] Financial Performance - The adjusted performance of New Oriental is expected to exceed Bloomberg's estimates by over 10%, suggesting the end of a challenging downturn for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The company's capital return rate is strong, currently exceeding 5% [1] Market Reaction - Despite an initial decline in the company's stock price in the US market, Morgan Stanley believes that New Oriental is on the path to profitability growth with a clear outlook [1]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a significant deviation between traditional GDP calculations and official figures, suggesting a structural transformation in the economy, moving away from traditional infrastructure and real estate investments [9][10] - The focus of future policies is expected to shift from "investment in objects" to "investment in people," emphasizing urban renewal and service industry development [10] Industry and Company Analysis - New Hope Liuhe (002001.SZ) reported a resilient performance with a 5.45% year-on-year increase in revenue to 16.642 billion yuan and a 33.37% increase in net profit to 5.321 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [20] - Cloud Map Holdings (002539.SZ) experienced a slight revenue decline of 4.73% in Q3, but the core business remains stable with a net profit of 1.64 billion yuan [23] - Kingfa Sci. & Tech. (600143.SH) achieved a 22.62% increase in revenue to 49.616 billion yuan and a 55.86% increase in net profit to 10.65 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by product structure optimization [26] - Aiwai Electronics (688798.SH) reported a 55% increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with a revenue of 2.176 billion yuan, reflecting strong performance in the consumer electronics sector [30] - The overall performance of the food industry, including companies like Sanquan Foods (002216.SZ) and Haitian Flavoring (603288.SH), shows a trend of revenue stabilization and cost control despite market challenges [8][30] Fixed Income Strategy - The convertible bond market is experiencing a significant increase in public fund holdings, with a total of 316.6 billion yuan, despite a decrease in overall market size [12][13] - The strategy suggests a focus on sectors like lithium batteries, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals for potential high returns, while advising caution in financial and consumer sectors [11][12] Commodity Market Insights - The gold market is witnessing a pivotal moment as prices approach 4400 USD/oz, indicating a challenge to the dollar's dominance and a potential shift in global reserve currency dynamics [18][19] - The fertilizer market, particularly for compound fertilizers, remains stable, although sales have been impacted by extreme weather conditions [24][25]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the wealth management market in China has seen a significant increase in scale, reaching a new high despite valuation rectification pressures, with a third-quarter increase of 1.46 trillion yuan, which is 620 billion yuan more than the same period last year [5] - The report indicates that the financial institutions' deposit growth has slowed down, with a total increase of 4.76 trillion yuan in deposits in the third quarter, which is a decrease of 400 billion yuan year-on-year [5] - The wealth management and bond fund scales have shown a year-on-year decrease in the second half of the year, while deposits have started to recover [5] Group 2 - The report discusses the growth potential of the pool cleaning robot industry, which has a current market size of 2.5 billion USD and is expected to grow to 4.21 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 11.1% from 2024 to 2029 [6] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the pool cleaning robot market, holding a 9.2% market share and ranking third globally, with the top five manufacturers accounting for approximately 74.9% of the market [6] - The report emphasizes the company's competitive advantages, including strong R&D capabilities, comprehensive product offerings, and a robust multi-channel sales strategy [6] Group 3 - The report notes that the company has experienced a slowdown in revenue growth, with a 2025 year-to-date revenue of 1.76 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.7% increase year-on-year, while net profit has decreased by 29% [11] - The company is expected to face continued pressure on profitability due to significant investments in new product molds [11] - The report projects net profits for the company to be 121 million yuan, 145 million yuan, and 171 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [11] Group 4 - The report indicates that the company has achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with a third-quarter revenue of 19.68 billion yuan, representing a 129.19% year-on-year growth [31] - The new game "杖剑传说" has contributed significantly to the company's revenue growth, with total revenue from this game reaching 11.66 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [31] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in overseas markets, with a 59.46% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue [33]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut [3] - The Fed announced it will end its balance sheet reduction plan on December 1, with the principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities to be reinvested in short-term Treasury bonds [5] - There is a notable division within the Fed regarding future monetary policy, with some members advocating for a more aggressive rate cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [5][6] Economic Indicators - The Fed acknowledged a lack of official economic data due to the federal government shutdown, complicating its understanding of the economic situation [5] - Current indicators suggest moderate economic expansion, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [5] - Inflation has risen slightly compared to earlier in the year, remaining above desired levels [5] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement and comments from Chairman Powell, major assets experienced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.16% and the Nasdaq rising by 0.55% [8] - Large tech stocks mostly saw gains, with Nvidia rising nearly 3% and achieving a market capitalization above $500 billion [10] - The dollar index increased, surpassing the 99 mark, while U.S. Treasury yields also saw upward movement [10]

Core Insights - The article highlights a strategic transformation at Dongfang Zhenxuan, shifting from a reliance on traffic to a focus on product quality, marking a significant change in the live e-commerce landscape [1][9][20] Financial Performance - Dongfang Zhenxuan's latest financial report indicates a strong performance, with projections suggesting a profit exceeding 100 million yuan for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year [1] - The annual GMV for self-operated products reached 3.81 billion yuan, contributing to a 30% year-on-year increase in net profit, excluding asset disposal impacts [1][3] Product Strategy - The company has increased its self-operated product SKUs by nearly 50% year-on-year, with self-operated products accounting for 80% of total revenue [3][9] - Dongfang Zhenxuan's focus on product quality has been evident since its inception, with early self-operated products launched even before gaining significant traffic [6][9] Market Positioning - The company is positioning itself similarly to Sam's Club, emphasizing a "product membership system" and aiming to build long-term competitiveness through its own app and live streaming team [8][10] - The shift towards a product-driven model is seen as a necessary evolution in the industry, as competitors also attempt to move away from pure traffic-driven strategies [16][20] Supply Chain and Membership - Dongfang Zhenxuan is investing in its supply chain, with plans to establish 40 warehouses across 10 key cities to enhance product quality and reduce costs [14][15] - The company has launched a paid membership service with 264,300 subscribers, although it still lags behind Sam's Club in terms of membership scale and revenue contribution [15][9] Long-term Vision - The company emphasizes a long-term approach to growth, focusing on product quality and brand trust rather than short-term traffic gains [21][20] - The transition from a traffic-dependent model to a product-centric strategy is seen as a critical step for sustainable development in the live e-commerce sector [20][19]