Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including China Feihe, Huazhu, and others, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight rebound in spot costs for essential consumer goods, with most indices showing an increase, while futures indices generally declined [35]. - The overall trend in the consumer goods sector reflects a mixed performance, with some categories experiencing cost increases while others face declines [8][35]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.39% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 6.06%. Year-to-date changes show a decline of 4.17% for spot and 6.16% for futures [36][13]. - Glass prices initially rose but later fell, with month-on-month changes of +0.3% for spot and -13.9% for futures [12]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.16% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 5.93%. Year-to-date changes are -1.76% for spot and -6.01% for futures [37]. - Domestic soybean prices have increased due to supply contraction, while imported soybeans remain weak [16]. Dairy - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 0.7% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.44%. Year-to-date changes are -3.2% for spot and -2.11% for futures [38]. - Fresh milk prices have declined to 3.02 yuan/kg, with various factors contributing to price pressures [19]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 1.3% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 2%. Year-to-date changes are -3.01% for spot and -4.21% for futures [39]. - Palm oil prices have risen, impacting overall costs [23]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods increased by 1.15% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 0.97%. Year-to-date changes are -1.83% for spot and -2.74% for futures [40]. - Vegetable prices have shown significant fluctuations due to seasonal demand [27]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks increased by 0.78% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 5.63%. Year-to-date changes are -4.99% for spot and -8.6% for futures [41]. - PET prices are stable to weak, reflecting changes in demand and inventory levels [31].

Core Insights - The core focus of the article is on the transformation of the brand Tai Er, which is undergoing a significant upgrade to its business model and store design to enhance customer experience and address previous challenges in the competitive market [1][6]. Company Overview - Tai Er, under the parent company Jiu Mao Jiu Group, is launching a new store model called "Fresh Active Mode" to revitalize its brand image and product offerings, with plans to expand from 64 to over 150 new stores by the end of the year [1][3]. - The new store model shifts from a focus on the signature dish of sauerkraut fish to a broader menu that includes live fish, fresh chicken, and beef, along with a more diverse range of hot dishes [1][3]. Financial Performance - As of the first half of 2025, Jiu Mao Jiu Group reported a revenue of 2.753 billion yuan, a decline of 10.1% year-on-year, with Tai Er's revenue dropping by 13.3% to 1.949 billion yuan [6][9]. - The average daily dining revenue of the new store model has increased by approximately 15% compared to the conventional model, with an average increase in customer spending of around 4 yuan [3][9]. Market Challenges - The company faces significant challenges, including a saturated market for sauerkraut fish, with a reported total of 25,781 stores nationwide and a net decrease of 3,164 stores in the past year [9][10]. - The rise of pre-packaged food options is also impacting Tai Er's market share, with the pre-packaged sauerkraut fish market expected to reach 20.47 billion yuan this year [10]. Store Operations - The new store design features a fresh ingredient display area and aims to attract young families by increasing seating capacity from 2-4 to 2-6 people [3][4]. - The renovation costs for larger stores are estimated between 1.8 million to 2 million yuan, while smaller stores cost around 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, with expectations that a 12% increase in sales will cover the additional costs [4][6]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors in the sauerkraut fish segment are also diversifying their menus to enhance competitiveness, with brands like "Fish You Together" and "Yu Shi Hu" introducing new dishes [9][10]. - Despite the challenges, Tai Er's operational profit margin remains relatively stable at 13.4%, indicating some resilience in its business model [9].

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry is facing significant challenges, with major players like Haidilao, Jiumaojiu, and others reporting declines in both revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, while budget-friendly brands like Xiaocaiyuan and Green Tea Group show stable growth [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Haidilao reported revenue of 20.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.76 billion yuan, down 13.7% [2]. - Jiumaojiu's revenue was 2.75 billion yuan, a decline of 10.1%, with a net profit of 60.69 million yuan, down 16% [2]. - Other companies like Xianyin and Quanjude also reported declines in revenue and net profit, while Xiaocaiyuan and Green Tea Group saw revenue and net profit growth of over 20% [3][4]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - The consumer environment has shifted towards budget-friendly dining, with average spending per customer decreasing across many brands [3][4]. - Xiaocaiyuan's average customer spending was 57.1 yuan, down 3.3 yuan year-on-year, while Green Tea Group's was 55.5 yuan, down 2.6 yuan [3]. - Haidilao's average customer spending slightly increased to 97.9 yuan, but this is a decline from 104.9 yuan in 2022 [4]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - Key operational metrics like table turnover rates have declined, with Haidilao's dropping from 4.2 to 3.8 times per day [4]. - Same-store sales for major brands, including Haidilao and Jiumaojiu, also showed negative trends, with Xiaocaiyuan's same-store sales declining by 7.2% [4]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Haidilao is adjusting its store strategy by reducing self-operated locations and increasing franchise operations, closing 33 self-operated restaurants while adding 28 franchises [5][6]. - Jiumaojiu has also closed stores, with a reduction in the number of Taier locations by 68, indicating a cautious approach to expansion [6][7]. - Both companies are exploring new growth avenues, with Haidilao launching the "Pomegranate Plan" to develop new restaurant brands [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The overall restaurant market is experiencing slow growth, with a reported revenue increase of only 4.3% in the first half of 2025 compared to 7.9% in the previous year [7]. - The industry is shifting focus from scale to quality, emphasizing profitability and customer experience over mere expansion [7][9]. - Jiumaojiu's transformation efforts for Taier are still under observation, while Haidilao's new brands face sustainability challenges [9].

Core Insights - The restaurant industry continues to face significant challenges, with major players like Haidilao, Jiumaojiu, and others reporting declines in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [2][3][4] - The shift towards affordable dining options has become a mainstream trend, benefiting companies like Xiaocaiyuan and Green Tea Group, which reported revenue and profit growth [3][4] - Key operational metrics such as table turnover rates and same-store sales have declined across many restaurant chains, indicating a tough market environment [4][5] Revenue and Profit Performance - Haidilao reported revenue of 20.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.76 billion yuan, down 13.7% [2] - Jiumaojiu's revenue fell to 2.75 billion yuan, a 10.1% decline, with net profit dropping to 60.69 million yuan, down 16% [2] - Other companies like Xian Catering and Xiaobai also reported significant losses, with Xian Catering facing over 50 million yuan in losses [2][4] Consumer Trends - The average consumer spending in the restaurant sector has generally decreased, with Xiaocaiyuan's average dining expenditure dropping by 3.3 yuan to 57.1 yuan, and Green Tea Group's by 2.6 yuan to 55.5 yuan [3] - Haidilao's average spending slightly increased by 0.5 yuan to 97.9 yuan, while Jiumaojiu's related brand, Tai Er, saw a 2 yuan increase to 73 yuan, but both are down from 2022 levels [3] Operational Challenges - Table turnover rates have declined, with Haidilao's rate dropping from 4.2 to 3.8 times per day, and Jiumaojiu's Tai Er from 3.8 to 3.1 times [4] - Same-store sales have also decreased across various brands, with Xiaocaiyuan's same-store sales falling from 2.32 billion yuan to 2.16 billion yuan, a 7.2% decline [4] Strategic Adjustments - Haidilao is adjusting its store strategy by reducing self-operated locations while increasing franchise operations, with a total of 1,322 self-operated restaurants, down by 33 [5][6] - Jiumaojiu has closed some of its underperforming stores, with Tai Er's locations decreasing to 566, down by 68 [5][6] - Both companies are exploring new growth avenues, with Haidilao launching the "Pomegranate Plan" to develop new restaurant brands, while Jiumaojiu is upgrading Tai Er's offerings [7][8] Market Outlook - The overall restaurant market is experiencing sluggish growth, with a reported revenue increase of only 4.3% in the first half of 2025 compared to 7.9% in the previous year [6] - Analysts suggest a shift in focus from expansion to quality and profitability, indicating that mere growth in store numbers may not lead to increased profits [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for Jiumaojiu for 2025 to 2027 by 9%, 6%, and 10% respectively, primarily reflecting weaker-than-expected demand year-to-date [1] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 13% to 14%, and the forecast for 2027 has been lowered by 10% [1] - The downgrade in earnings and revenue forecasts is attributed to intensified price competition on delivery platforms, which has further pressured dine-in demand in the overall restaurant market since the second quarter of this year [1] Group 2: Cost Control Measures - In light of the challenging operating environment, the company is expected to enhance cost control measures, including closing underperforming stores and further reducing headquarters expenses [1] Group 3: Stock Price and Market Position - The target price for Jiumaojiu has been lowered from HKD 2.3 to HKD 2.1, maintaining a "reduce" rating [1] - The stock price is anticipated to decline over the next 30 days due to the announcement that Jiumaojiu will be removed from the Hang Seng Composite Index starting September 8, which means the stock will be excluded from the Hong Kong Stock Connect program [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiamaojiu (09922) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 3% following the release of its mid-year results for 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the restaurant industry [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.753 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% [1] - The profit attributable to equity shareholders was 60.691 million yuan, down 16% compared to the previous year [1] Same-Store Sales - The same-store sales growth rates for the company's main brands were as follows: Taier at -19.0%, Song Hotpot at -20.1%, and Jiamaojiu at -19.8% [1] Store Closures - In the first half of the year, the company closed a net total of 88 stores, primarily due to the expiration of lease agreements and underperformance of certain restaurants [1] Analyst Revisions - Morgan Stanley has revised its earnings per share forecasts for Jiamaojiu for 2025 to 2027 down by 9%, 6%, and 10% respectively, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand year-to-date [1] - The target price has been adjusted from 2.3 HKD to 2.1 HKD, maintaining a "Reduce" rating [1] Market Impact - The company is expected to face selling pressure in the short term due to its removal from the Hang Seng Composite Index effective September 8, which will exclude it from the Hong Kong Stock Connect program [1] - As of August 22, southbound funds held 311.7 million shares, accounting for 22.3% of the total share capital and 44.4% of the free float [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiumaojiu (09922) has experienced a decline of over 3%, with a current price of 2.61 HKD and a trading volume of 57.16 million HKD, following the release of its mid-year results for 2025, which showed a significant drop in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.753 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% [1] - The profit attributable to equity shareholders was 60.69 million RMB, down 16% year-on-year [1] Same-store Sales Data - The same-store sales growth rates for the company's main brands were as follows: - Taier: -19.0% - Song Hotpot: -20.1% - Jiumaojiu: -19.8% [1] Store Closures - In the first half of the year, the company closed 88 stores, primarily due to the expiration of lease agreements and underperformance of certain restaurants [1] Analyst Forecasts - Morgan Stanley has revised its earnings per share forecasts for Jiumaojiu for 2025 to 2027 down by 9%, 6%, and 10% respectively, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand year-to-date [1] - The target price has been adjusted from 2.3 HKD to 2.1 HKD, maintaining a "Reduce" rating [1] Market Impact - The company is expected to face significant selling pressure in the short term due to its removal from the Hang Seng Composite Index effective September 8, which will exclude it from the Hong Kong Stock Connect program [1] - As of August 22, southbound funds held 311.7 million shares, accounting for 22.3% of the total share capital and 44.4% of the free float [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Jiamaojiu Group reported a revenue of RMB 2.753 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders remained stable at RMB 60.7 million, with a net profit margin of 2.2% [1] - The company adopted a more cautious store opening strategy and initiated a store layout optimization process for all brands since the fourth quarter of the previous year, laying a solid foundation for long-term development and profit recovery [1] - The revenue contribution from Taier Sauerkraut Fish accounted for 70.8% of Jiamaojiu Group's total revenue, serving as a key pillar for the company's performance [1] Group 2 - Taier launched a new 5.0 fresh model in the first half of 2025, which has received positive market feedback and data validation after nearly a year of trial and exploration [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the number of Taier fresh model stores reached 64, with expectations to exceed 150 by the end of the year, and a complete upgrade of all Taier stores planned for 2026 [2] - The adjusted fresh model has significantly increased daily dining revenue, with an average year-on-year growth of approximately 15 percentage points compared to the conventional model [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited reported a revenue of RMB 2.753 billion for the six months ending June 30, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.1% in a challenging market environment [1] - The company operates three main brands: "Jiumaojiu Northwest Cuisine," "Tai Er Sour Fish," and "Song Hot Pot Factory" [1] - For the first half of 2025, Tai Er Sour Fish accounted for 70.8% of the revenue generated by Jiumaojiu Group [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Jiumaojiu International Holdings [2][8] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure, but store adjustments are expected to drive marginal improvements in operations [1][8] - Revenue for 1H25 was RMB 2.75 billion, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 60 million, down 16.0% year-on-year [3][13] - The company is focusing on optimizing its store model and has closed underperforming locations while concentrating resources on core restaurants [5][6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 6.09 billion, RMB 6.52 billion, and RMB 7.11 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 0.2%, 7.1%, and 9.1% respectively [8][14] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 140 million, RMB 230 million, and RMB 310 million for the same period, with net profit margins of 2.3%, 3.5%, and 4.4% respectively [8][14] - The company’s diluted earnings per share are projected to increase from RMB 0.04 in 2025 to RMB 0.22 in 2027 [10][12] Operational Insights - The company has reduced its total number of restaurants to 729, a net decrease of 42 locations year-on-year, focusing on quality over quantity [5][6] - The average customer spending has increased slightly, with Taier at RMB 73 and Jiumaojiu at RMB 57, while the turnover rate has decreased for most brands [5][6] - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 64.7% for the next few years [10][12]