Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Neutral" for the company, indicating that the expected performance is within a range of -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index [12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 81.17 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.67% from 2024 to 2027 [6][8]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve gradually, reaching 82.50% by 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow steadily, with an expected net profit of 19.64 billion in 2026 and 23.31 billion in 2027 [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company's total assets are projected to increase from 242.58 billion in 2024 to 311.55 billion in 2027, demonstrating robust asset growth [6]. - The current ratio is expected to improve significantly from 1.51 in 2024 to 3.59 in 2027, indicating enhanced liquidity [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 26.10 in 2024 to 34.10 in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [7][8]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from accommodation bookings is expected to grow from 3.48 billion in 2023 to 2.39 billion in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 20% [4]. - Transportation ticketing revenue is projected to increase from 4.16 billion in 2023 to 5.60 billion in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 12% [4]. - The revenue from travel resorts is anticipated to grow significantly, with a year-over-year growth rate of 20% expected in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of HKD 591 (previously HKD 571) and USD 76 (previously USD 73) [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a 4Q24 net revenue of RMB 12.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%, exceeding market expectations by 5% [2]. - The international business is still in an investment phase, but the long-term growth potential is viewed positively, particularly in overseas markets [1][5]. - The company’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) for its core OTA business reached RMB 1.2 trillion (USD 169 billion), reflecting a 9% increase from the previous year, maintaining its position as the largest OTA globally [3]. Financial Performance - 4Q24 adjusted net profit was RMB 3 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 6% [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 79% year-on-year, while marketing expenses rose by 45% due to increased overseas investments [2][5]. - Revenue projections for 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with expected revenue of RMB 61.7 billion, reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth [6][24]. Business Growth Potential - Domestic tourism is expected to grow by 10% in 2025, with the company leveraging its advantages in hotel ADR and air ticket pricing to outperform the industry [4]. - The international business, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, is projected to contribute significantly to total revenue, with a potential market size 1.5 times that of the domestic market [4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its one-stop service and mobile platform to capture a larger share of the international market [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a USD 400 million share buyback plan and a dividend of USD 200 million (USD 0.3 per share), indicating a commitment to delivering stable performance and shareholder returns [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.8 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.5%, exceeding expectations by 3.6% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 was 3 billion RMB, up 13.6% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations by 8.3%, driven by strong growth in international business and inbound travel demand [1][2] - The company is expected to increase its investment in international business over the next two years, which may lead to a slight decline in profit margins in the short term, but this is anticipated to open new growth avenues and greater profit flexibility in the long term [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company’s international OTA platform hotel and flight bookings grew over 70% year-over-year, with international business accounting for 14% of total revenue, up from 10% for the full year 2024 [2] - The inbound travel demand saw a 100% year-over-year increase in bookings, benefiting from favorable visa policies [2] Profitability Outlook - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 79.1%, showing a slight decline due to the increased proportion of lower-margin international business [3] - Management indicated a focus on expanding overseas operations, which may lead to short-term profit margin pressure but is expected to strengthen the company's global positioning and ensure sustainable profit release in the long run [3] Technology Deployment - The management is focusing on the comprehensive deployment of AI technology in business operations, utilizing extensive real-time travel data for personalized travel recommendations and competitive pricing [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.3 billion, 71.3 billion, and 82.4 billion RMB, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 19.7 billion, 22.5 billion, and 26 billion RMB [5][12] - The target price for the company's US stock is set at $75.50, while the target price for the Hong Kong stock is HKD 563.70, based on a PE valuation method [5][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Ctrip Group (9961 HK), with a target price of HKD 605.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.0% from the current price of HKD 462.00 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that increased overseas investments may disrupt short-term profit margins, but there remains room for revenue growth. The company is expected to see significant revenue increases driven by domestic hotel bookings and outbound travel demand [2][7][8]. - The financial outlook for Ctrip Group shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with projected revenues increasing from RMB 44.56 billion in 2023 to RMB 80.58 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [3][19]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 13.07 billion in 2023 to RMB 24.61 billion in 2027, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 19.48 to RMB 35.72 over the same period [3][19]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Ctrip Group are as follows: - 2023: RMB 44,562 million - 2024: RMB 53,377 million - 2025E: RMB 62,291 million - 2026E: RMB 71,022 million - 2027E: RMB 80,583 million - The company is expected to maintain a strong gross profit margin, with projections around 80.9% to 81.2% over the forecast period [3][19][20]. - The report anticipates a decline in net profit margin due to increased marketing expenses related to overseas brand promotion, with net profit margins expected to be around 25.9% in 2025 [7][19]. Market Performance - Ctrip Group's stock has shown a year-to-date decline of 14.44%, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [6][8]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 297.57 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 9.92 million shares [6][8]. Future Outlook - The report projects that Ctrip Group will continue to benefit from the recovery in travel demand, particularly in outbound travel, which is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels [7][8]. - The company is also expected to leverage operational efficiencies and advancements in AI to mitigate short-term profit margin pressures [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price adjusted to $70.00, down from $71.00, reflecting a 20.4x PE for 2025E [1][4][12]. Core Insights - Trip.com reported total revenue of RMB 12.8 billion for Q4 2024, a 23% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 4%. The non-GAAP operating profit was RMB 2.8 billion, benefiting from optimized operating expenses [1]. - For 2025, revenue is expected to grow by 20% to RMB 53.4 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit and net profit projected to increase by 23% and 38% respectively [1]. - The report indicates that while incremental investments may pressure short-term profits, they are expected to support long-term growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Trip.com achieved a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 21.6%, slightly above expectations, with operating expenses at 57.6% of total revenue, better than the anticipated 59.0% [3]. - The company’s revenue for FY 2024 is projected at RMB 53.4 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 19.8% [9]. Revenue Forecasts - The revenue forecast for Q1 2025 is estimated at RMB 13.8 billion, aligning with consensus expectations, driven by a 15% increase in domestic hotel bookings [2]. - The report anticipates a 60% year-over-year growth in Trip.com’s outbound tourism revenue for 2025, supported by incremental investments [2]. Valuation Metrics - The adjusted target price of $70.00 reflects a 22.2% upside from the current price of $57.30 [4]. - The report projects a non-GAAP net profit margin of 28.6% for 2025, down from previous estimates due to adjustments in outbound tourism revenue forecasts [12]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the recent stock price decline of 11% has already priced in concerns regarding potential profit margin compression due to increased investments for international expansion [1]. - The analysts express optimism about Trip.com’s ability to deliver positive financial results in upcoming quarters, driven by enhanced operational efficiency [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price of US$70.00, reflecting a potential upside of 22.2% from the current price of US$57.30 [4][20]. Core Insights - Trip.com reported a total revenue of RMB12.8 billion for 4Q24, representing a 23% year-over-year increase, which was 4% above Bloomberg consensus estimates. The non-GAAP operating income was RMB2.8 billion, also exceeding consensus by 4% due to better-than-expected operating expenses [1]. - For 2024, Trip.com achieved a revenue growth of 20% year-over-year, totaling RMB53.4 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit and net profit growing by 23% and 38% year-over-year, respectively [1]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 16% year-over-year for 1Q25, aligning with consensus expectations, driven by solid booking volume growth in the domestic hotel business [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q24, Trip.com’s non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) was 21.6%, slightly better than consensus, while the gross profit margin (GPM) was 79.1%, which was below expectations [3]. - The company plans to increase investments to support long-term growth, which may lead to short-term margin pressures but is expected to enhance overall business performance in the future [3]. Revenue Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased by 1% to RMB61.6 billion, while the non-GAAP net profit forecast has been reduced by 1% due to anticipated slower growth in the outbound travel segment [12]. - The report estimates that Trip.com’s international business will see a revenue growth of 60% year-over-year in 2025, supported by increased investments [2]. Market Position - Trip.com’s outbound travel bookings have recovered to over 120% of 2019 levels in 4Q24, outperforming the overall market by approximately 30-40 percentage points [2]. - The company’s share price has dropped by 11% post-results, which the report suggests has already priced in concerns regarding potential margin contraction in 2025 [1].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB 12.7 billion, representing a 23% increase year-over-year and a 20% decrease quarter-over-quarter [32] - For the full year of 2024, total net revenue was RMB 53.3 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year growth [32] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was RMB 3.0 billion, compared to RMB 2.9 billion in the same period last year and RMB 5.7 billion in the previous quarter [38] - Diluted earnings per ordinary share for Q4 were RMB 3.09 or USD 0.42, while non-GAAP diluted earnings were RMB 4.35 or USD 0.60 [39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Accommodation reservation revenue in Q4 was RMB 5.2 billion, a 33% increase year-over-year but a 24% decrease quarter-over-quarter [33] - Transportation ticketing revenue for Q4 was RMB 4.8 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year and a 15% decrease quarter-over-quarter [33] - Packaged tour revenue for Q4 was RMB 870 million, a 24% increase year-over-year but a 44% decrease quarter-over-quarter [34] - Corporate travel revenue for Q4 was RMB 702 million, an 11% increase year-over-year and a 7% increase quarter-over-quarter [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, outbound hotel and air ticket bookings recovered to more than 120% compared to 2019, outperforming the industry by 30% to 40% [16] - Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com platforms increased by over 100% year-over-year, with those from visa-free countries rising by over 150% [18] - The international business represented 14% of group revenue in Q4 and 10% for the full year of 2024 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on AI innovation to enhance travel accessibility and personalization, with tools like TripGenie seeing a 200% traffic surge [10] - Trip.com is committed to promoting inbound travel and rural revitalization as part of its sustainability initiatives [11][12] - The company aims to capitalize on trends among younger travelers and the silver generation, introducing tailored offerings for both demographics [25][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the travel market, highlighting strong demand for both domestic and international travel [50] - The company anticipates continued growth driven by the recovery of direct flights and relaxed visa restrictions [52][53] - Management emphasized the importance of enhancing operational efficiency and leveraging AI to support long-term growth [59] Other Important Information - The company announced a share repurchase program of up to USD 400 million and a cash dividend totaling approximately USD 200 million for 2025 [40][41] - As of December 31, 2024, the balance of cash and cash equivalents was RMB 90 billion or USD 12.3 billion [40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on AI's impact on OTAs - Management believes AI will complement OTAs rather than replace them, enhancing personalized travel planning [45][47] Question: Current leisure and business travel demand outlook - Management sees strong demand, particularly in domestic travel and among younger and early retired travelers [50][51] Question: Outlook for operating margin trends - Management does not set specific margin targets but expects continuous improvement in operational efficiency to support margins [58][59] Question: Performance during Chinese New Year and hotel price outlook - Travel demand remained healthy during the holiday, with outbound bookings increasing over 20% year-over-year [63][64] Question: Outlook for outbound travel and capacity improvement - Outbound flight capacity is expected to recover to over 90% of pre-pandemic levels by 2025, with continued growth in outbound bookings [68][70] Question: Growth outlook for Trip.com platform - The platform is experiencing rapid growth, supported by a focus on customer service and AI investments [74][75] Question: Contribution of inbound travel to business - Inbound travel has significant potential, with management expecting it to become a major contributor to the industry [79][82] Question: Updates on capital return program - The dividend payout date is set for March 27, 2025, for ordinary shares, with a new capital return program authorized for 2025 [85]

Core Insights - Trip.com reported quarterly earnings of $0.60 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.52 per share, and showing an increase from $0.56 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of 15.38% [1] - The company generated revenues of $1.75 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.22%, and up from $1.45 billion year-over-year [2] - Trip.com has consistently outperformed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, achieving this four times [2] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.93 on revenues of $1.92 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.99 on revenues of $8.39 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Trip.com is currently favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, to which Trip.com belongs, is currently ranked in the top 20% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a positive outlook for stocks within this sector [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Trip.com Group achieved net operating revenue of RMB 12.7 billion (USD 1.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 23%[9] - For the full year 2024, net operating revenue reached RMB 53.3 billion (USD 7.3 billion), reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth[10] - Q4 2024 net profit was RMB 2.2 billion (USD 300 million), compared to RMB 1.3 billion in the same period of 2023[16] - In 2024, the net profit attributable to Trip.com Group was RMB 17.2 billion (USD 2.4 billion), compared to RMB 10 billion in 2023, representing a 72% increase[17] - For Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to Trip.com Group shareholders was RMB 2.2 billion (USD 295 million), up from RMB 1.3 billion in Q4 2023, and down from RMB 6.8 billion in the previous quarter[17] - The adjusted net profit for 2024, excluding stock-based compensation and certain fair value changes, was RMB 18 billion (USD 2.5 billion), compared to RMB 13.1 billion in 2023[17] - The diluted earnings per share for Q4 2024 were RMB 3.09 (USD 0.42), while the non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were RMB 4.35 (USD 0.60)[18] - The diluted earnings per share for the full year 2024 were RMB 24.78 (USD 3.39), while the non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were RMB 26.20 (USD 3.59)[18] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2024, accommodation booking revenue was RMB 5.2 billion (USD 709 million), up 33% year-on-year[10] - Q4 2024 transportation ticketing revenue was RMB 4.8 billion (USD 655 million), a 16% year-on-year increase[10] - The company's international OTA platform saw hotel and flight bookings increase by over 70% year-on-year[8] - Trip.com Group's inbound travel bookings grew by over 100% year-on-year in Q4 2024[8] Expenses and Investments - R&D expenses for Q4 2024 were RMB 3.4 billion (USD 465 million), a 16% increase year-on-year[13] - Sales and marketing expenses in Q4 2024 were RMB 3.4 billion (USD 462 million), up 45% year-on-year[13] Future Projections and Plans - The company anticipates continued growth in the travel market driven by strong consumer demand and investment in AI[8] - The company has authorized a new capital return plan for 2025, including a share repurchase program of up to USD 400 million and a cash dividend of approximately USD 200 million for FY 2024[20] - The cash dividend will be USD 0.30 per share for common stock or ADS, payable to shareholders registered by the close of business on March 17, 2025[20] - The company plans to expand its market presence and enhance its product offerings, focusing on technology development and strategic acquisitions[33] Asset and Liability Projections - The total cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and held-to-maturity deposits and financial products amounted to RMB 90 billion (USD 12.3 billion) as of December 31, 2024[18] - Cash and cash equivalents, including restricted cash, are forecasted to increase from RMB 43,983 million in 2023 to RMB 51,093 million in 2024, a growth of 16.0%[29] - The total assets of Ctrip Group are projected to rise from RMB 219,137 million in 2023 to RMB 242,581 million in 2024, indicating a growth of 10.7%[31] - The total liabilities of Ctrip Group are projected to increase from RMB 96,131 million in 2023 to RMB 99,099 million in 2024, a rise of 3.1%[31] Operational Challenges - The company continues to face risks related to economic growth, competition, and operational challenges in the travel industry[23] - The company experienced a decrease in other income/expenses, from RMB 667 million in 2023 to a projected loss of RMB 2,220 million in 2024, indicating potential challenges in this area[36] - The company’s effective tax rate for the year ending December 31, 2023, was RMB 1,750 million, with an expected increase to RMB 2,604 million in 2024, reflecting higher profitability[36]

Core Insights - Trip.com Group Limited reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, highlighting resilience in the travel market driven by increased traveler demand for exploration and cultural experiences [2][21] - The company is focused on investing in AI and promoting inbound travel to enhance the overall travel experience and expects continued growth in the industry [2] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, net revenue was RMB12.7 billion (US$1.7 billion), a 23% increase year-over-year, but a 20% decrease from the previous quarter due to seasonality [3][21] - Full year 2024 net revenue reached RMB53.3 billion (US$7.3 billion), marking a 20% increase from 2023 [4] - Q4 2024 net income was RMB2.2 billion (US$300 million), up from RMB1.3 billion in Q4 2023 [22][23] - Full year 2024 net income attributable to shareholders was RMB17.1 billion (US$2.3 billion), compared to RMB9.9 billion in 2023 [24] Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation reservation revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB5.2 billion (US$709 million), a 33% increase year-over-year [4] - Transportation ticketing revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB4.8 billion (US$655 million), a 16% increase from the same period in 2023 [6] - Packaged-tour revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB870 million (US$119 million), a 24% increase year-over-year [8] - Corporate travel revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB702 million (US$96 million), an 11% increase from Q4 2023 [9] Cost and Expenses - Cost of revenue for Q4 2024 increased by 31% to RMB2.6 billion (US$362 million) compared to Q4 2023 [11] - Product development expenses for Q4 2024 rose by 16% to RMB3.4 billion (US$465 million) [13] - Sales and marketing expenses for Q4 2024 increased by 45% to RMB3.4 billion (US$462 million) [15] - General and administrative expenses for Q4 2024 increased by 19% to RMB1.0 billion (US$142 million) [17] Cash and Capital Return - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB90.0 billion (US$12.3 billion) [27] - The board of directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to US$400 million and a cash dividend of approximately US$200 million for the financial year 2024 [28]