证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 12 29 年 月 日 电力 2026 电力行业年度策略：火绿重构，水核筑基，燃气优化 行情回顾：板块盈利稳健，市场表现跑输大盘。2025 年 1-9 月，公用事业 (SW) 板块上涨 0.92%，位列全行业第 27 名，跑输沪深 300 指数 17.02pcts。实现营业收入 13817.83 亿元，同比增长 0.02%，归母净利 1723.24 亿元，同比提高 8.43%。2025 前三季度火电业绩稳健，成本低位 支撑盈利，实现归母净利 711.23 亿元，同比增长 15.83%；新能源发电低 电价压力下业绩仍维持高增，风电板块实现归母净利润 220.31 亿元，同 比提高 31.67%；水电经营稳健但增速有所放缓，实现归母净利 513.22 亿 元，同比增长 3.30%；核电相对承压，实现归母净利 165.78 亿元，同比 下降 12.36%。 市场回顾：电力供需转向平衡，电改进一步推进。2025 年前三季度用电 量增速 4.6%，电力消费弹性系数明显下滑至 0.88。二产用电需求疲软拖 累整体用电，一、三产业及居民用电仍具韧性，信息类行业 ...

依据证监会指导沪深北交易所《上市公司自律监管指引——可持续发展报告》，ESG强信披阵营锁定上 证180、深证100、科创50、创业板指成分股及境内外同步上市企业。伴随上证180等指数调整，成都银 行（601838）、沪农商行（601825）两家上市银行新晋入列。 财政部会同9部门印发《企业可持续披露准则第1号——气候（试行）》 12月25日，财政部会同生态环境部、外交部等9部门《企业可持续披露准则第1号——气候（试行）》 （以下简称《气候准则》）。《气候准则》是国家统一的可持续披露准则体系中的第一个具体准则，自 今年4月底公开征求意见至今，终于"靴子落地"。业内认为，这是我国向统一可持续披露准则体系迈进 的一大步。 财政部会计司有关负责人答记者问时表示，现阶段将《气候准则》定位为试行文件，明确在实施范围和 实施要求作出规定之前，由企业自愿实施。 "综合考虑我国企业的发展阶段和披露能力，财政部将坚持准则制定和实施分开的原则，不采取'一刀 切'的强制实施要求。后续将采取区分重点、试点先行、循序渐进、分步推进的策略，从上市公司向非 上市公司扩展，从大型企业向中小企业扩展，从定性要求向定量要求扩展，从自愿披露向强制披 ...

人民财讯12月29日电，企查查APP显示，近日，华能（昌图）清洁能源发展有限责任公司成立，法定代 表人为张忠华，经营范围包含：太阳能发电技术服务；风力发电技术服务；发电技术服务；供冷服务； 热力生产和供应；储能技术服务等。企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由华能国际（600011）间接全资持 股。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the utility and environmental sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in November, the total electricity consumption in China reached 835.6 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.2%. The contributions from various sectors were: primary industry (7.9%), secondary industry (4.4%), tertiary industry (10.3%), and urban and rural residents (9.8%) [3][8]. - The growth in electricity consumption is primarily driven by the tertiary industry, particularly in sectors related to big data analysis and artificial intelligence services, which saw significant increases in electricity usage [9]. - The report notes that the natural gas market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with LNG prices continuing to decline. As of December 26, the national LNG ex-factory price was 3915 RMB/ton, down 2.85% week-on-week [3][40]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - In November, the total electricity consumption was 8356 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The secondary industry contributed 49% to the growth, while the tertiary industry followed with a 29% contribution [10][11]. - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors showed a notable increase in electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, surpassing the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector by 2.5 percentage points [9][10]. Natural Gas Sector - The report indicates that global gas prices are experiencing minor fluctuations, with the Henry Hub spot price at $3.31/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decrease of 7.30%. The TTF spot price in the Netherlands was €27.70/MWh, down 1.42% week-on-week [3][19]. - The report suggests that the LNG ex-factory price in China is under pressure due to high inventory levels and low-cost sea gas resources, leading to a continued downward trend [40][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market positioning: - For thermal power, companies like Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Datang Power are highlighted for their integrated coal and power operations [3][17]. - In the hydropower sector, companies such as Yangtze Power and Guotou Power are recommended due to their stable financial performance and reduced capital expenditures [3][17]. - For nuclear power, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested due to their stable cost structures and growth potential [3][17]. - In the green energy sector, companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are noted for their improved returns from stable project yields [3][17].

格隆汇12月29日｜A股市场电力股集体下跌，其中，国电电力、皖能电力跌超6%，上海电力、华能国 际跌超5%，圣元环保、内蒙华电跌超4%，兆新股份、大唐发电、京能电力、华电国际跌超3%。消息面 上，广东等地2026年长协电价陆续出炉。广东2026年度交易均价372.14厘/千瓦时，同比下降19.72厘/千 瓦时，接近基准价下浮下限；江苏2026年1月集中竞价均价324.71元/兆瓦时，较基准价下浮17%。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅%↑ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600795 | 国电电力 | | -6.92 | 960亿 | 22.46 | | 000543 | 皖−九 | | -6.92 | 186亿 | 8.52 | | 600021 | 上海电力 | 1 | -5.26 | 584亿 | 133.00 | | 600011 | 华能国际 | | -5.07 | 1206亿 | 17.71 | | 300867 | 圣元环保 | 1 | -4.82 | 50.92亿 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The environmental and public utility sectors have seen an increase, with the environmental industry index rising by 1.92% and the public utility index by 0.83%, which is relatively lower than the overall market increase [6] - The total transaction volume for electricity in Guangdong for 2026 is 359.44 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with an average transaction price of 372.14 cents/kWh, down 5.0% year-on-year [6] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly recommending Guodian Power and Huaneng International for their strong dividends and performance safety [6] Summary by Sections Key Event Analysis - In November, the growth rate of total electricity consumption slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, down 4.2 percentage points from October [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued guidelines to promote the large-scale development of solar thermal power [20] Market Review - The environmental and public utility sectors have shown positive performance, with the environmental sector leading with an 18.58% increase since the beginning of 2025 [22] - The power sector has seen a cumulative increase of 2.71% in the same period [22] Key Data Tracking - The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal has decreased to 685 RMB/ton, down 4.86% from December 19, 2025, and down 11.0% year-on-year [36] - The average electricity price in Guangdong reached a peak of 346.72 RMB/MWh on December 24, 2025, an increase of 10.9% week-on-week [52] - The LNG import price has risen to 9.62 RMB/million BTU, up 1.02% from December 19, 2025, while the domestic LNG ex-factory price has decreased to 3915 RMB/ton [50] Industry Key Events - The report highlights several key events in the electricity market, including the construction of charging infrastructure for electric heavy trucks in Chongqing and the implementation of green electricity direct connection projects in Ningxia [63][64]

每经AI快讯，港股电力股集体走低，截至发稿，华能国际(00902.HK)跌7.13%，报5.73港元；大唐发电 (00991.HK)跌4.27%，报2.24港元；华电国际(01071.HK)跌2.88%，报4.05港元；华润电力(00836.HK)跌 2.19%，报17.39港元。 ...

此外，近期，国家能源局披露2025年11月份能源生产和用电量情况，用电量方面，11月全社会用电量 8356亿千瓦时，同比增长6.2%；发电量方面，11月份，规上发电量7792亿千瓦时，同比增长2.7%，日 均发电量259.7亿千瓦时；其中火电、水电、风电和核电发电量分别为4969.5、966.8、1045.5和398.1亿 千瓦时，同比变化-4.20%、+17.10%、+22.00%和+4.70%。 消息面上，广东等地2026年长协电价陆续出炉。广东2026年度交易均价372.14厘/千瓦时，同比下降 19.72厘/千瓦时，接近基准价下浮下限；江苏2026年1月集中竞价均价324.71元/兆瓦时，较基准价下浮 17%。长江证券指出，广东长协电价的公布标志着前期市场悲观预期的正式落地，新一年全国电价博弈 成果拉开帷幕，沿海省份电价预期或均有松动。 电力股集体走低，截至发稿，华能国际（600011）(00902)跌7.13%，报5.73港元；大唐发电（601991） (00991)跌4.27%，报2.24港元；华电国际（600027）(01071)跌2.88%，报4.05港元；华润电力(00836)跌 2.19% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The annual electricity price expectations are gradually becoming clearer, with multiple factors constraining electricity price levels. The average transaction price for Guangdong's annual electricity trading in 2026 has reached the lower limit of the medium to long-term trading price, indicating a downward price expectation [2][6] - Despite the clear downward expectation for electricity prices, the thermal power sector has shown relative stability, outperforming the hydroelectric sector, which is less impacted by price fluctuations [2][6] - The recent decline in coal prices and the expected increase in capacity prices for 2026 are expected to provide a buffer against the downward trend in long-term contract prices, supporting market expectations for thermal power company profitability [2][6] Summary by Sections Electricity Price Expectations - The electricity supply and demand situation is at risk of deterioration, and there are non-seasonal risks associated with coal prices. The market's expectation for the 2026 annual electricity price has been negatively impacted by weak monthly and spot electricity prices in some provinces [2][7] - The average monthly prices for Guangdong and Jiangsu this year were 373 and 377 cents/kWh, respectively, down by 47 and 52 cents/kWh year-on-year. The announcement of the annual trading results has confirmed the market's previous pessimistic expectations [2][6] Thermal Power Sector Performance - The thermal power sector has shown resilience despite the downward price expectations, driven by two main factors: a significant "inverted V" trend in coal prices since October and the expected stepwise increase in capacity prices for 2026 [2][6] - The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal peaked at 834 yuan/ton in late November but has since dropped to 672 yuan/ton by December 26, a decrease of 162 yuan/ton [2][6] - The expected increase in capacity prices by approximately 65 yuan/year·kW across provinces is anticipated to enhance the profitability stability of thermal power companies [2][6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Huaneng International, Datang Power, Guodian Power, Huadian International, China Power, China Resources Power, and Funiu Co., as well as Inner Mongolia Huadian, which represents "coal-electricity integration" thermal power [2][12][13] - For the hydroelectric sector, recommended companies include Yangtze Power, Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Huaneng Hydropower [2][12][14] - In the renewable energy sector, companies such as Longyuan Power H, Xintian Green Energy H, China Nuclear Power, and Zhongmin Energy are recommended due to their potential for growth [2][12][15]

本周行业观点： ➢ 电力中长期市场新规时隔五年再修订，推动价格市场化与新型主体 入市。国家发展改革委、国家能源局正式印发了《电力中长期市场基 本规则》，各地和区域实施细则需在 2026 年 3 月 1 日前上报备案。 中长期交易电量作为我国电力市场交易的核心，在 2025 年前三季度 已占据市场总交易电量的 95.9%，此次修订旨在适应新能源全面入 市等新形势，也是构建全国统一电力市场"1+6"基础规则体系的关 键一步。 新规预计增强火电与新能源企业的收益确定性。新规明确合同电价可 采用与月度煤电价格指数、现货市场均价等联动的灵活机制，打破了 旧规下以固定价格为主的模式，系统性减少煤炭价格波动对火电企业 利润的冲击；新规将绿色电力交易整合为主规则品种，明确规定其价 格由电能量价格与绿电环境价值组成，且环境价值不纳入峰谷分时电 价机制计算，为绿电收益设立了明确的价值底线；开展跨电网经营区 常态化交易，跨省跨区交易价格明确由市场形成，跨省跨区交易价格 定价灵活性提升；价格机制制定权限明确收归国务院价格主管部门， 地方细则需会同国家能源局派出机构共同制定，有助于维护全国统一 市场的价格秩序。 增持（维持） 行业走势 ...