Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown resilience with a 3.70% increase this week, outperforming the broader market [10] - The report highlights that the central inspection team has pointed out issues with steel production capacity, indicating a potential tightening of supply management in the industry [3] - Despite current challenges, the demand for steel is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3] Supply Situation - As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sampled steel companies is 90.2%, an increase of 4.39 percentage points week-on-week [23] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4055 million tons, which is an increase of 117,100 tons week-on-week [23] - The total production of five major steel products is 7.448 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons week-on-week [23] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.433 million tons as of September 12, an increase of 155,000 tons week-on-week [31] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 103,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.32% [31] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.951 million tons, an increase of 174,100 tons week-on-week [39] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.195 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons week-on-week [39] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,489.7 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.71 yuan/ton week-on-week [45] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [54] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,379 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [54] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 796 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [68] - The price for primary metallurgical coke is 1,770 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [68]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [5] Core Insights - The steel industry continues to experience an oversupply situation, leading to a decline in steel prices and a year-on-year revenue decrease of 9% for the first half of 2025 and 8% for Q2 2025, although there was a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% in Q2 [2][21] - On the cost side, the decline in raw material prices has been greater than that of finished steel, resulting in a year-on-year cost reduction of 11% for the first half of 2025 and 10% for Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% in Q2 [2][24] - Profitability has significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 2540% in non-recurring profit for the first half of 2025 and 211% for Q2 2025, alongside a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47% [2][24] - The return on equity (ROE) for listed steel companies has shown recovery, with an ROE of 2.67% for the first half of 2025, up by 2.01 percentage points year-on-year, and 3.22% for Q2 2025, up by 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [2][24] Summary by Sections Revenue - The steel industry continues to face an oversupply, with revenues decreasing by 9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and 8% in Q2 2025, despite a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% in Q2 [2][21][22] Cost - The cost of steel companies has decreased by 11% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and by 10% in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% in Q2, driven by a larger decline in raw material prices compared to finished steel [2][24] Profit - Non-recurring profits have seen a substantial increase, with a year-on-year growth of 2540% in the first half of 2025 and 211% in Q2 2025, along with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47% in Q2 [2][24] Return on Equity - The ROE for the steel industry has improved, reaching 2.67% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.01 percentage points year-on-year, and 3.22% in Q2 2025, an increase of 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [2][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Ltd., Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, and Wujin Stainless Steel [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that pig iron production has rebounded to high levels, with daily production exceeding 2.4 million tons. Steel production has slightly decreased, but inventory accumulation has narrowed, suggesting a recovery in demand, although year-on-year demand remains weak. Steel profits are fluctuating around the breakeven point [2][3]. - The report highlights that the long-term focus will be on capacity regulation, which is expected to be more precise this time, promoting the survival of the fittest among steel companies. The profitability of steel enterprises is anticipated to recover as new iron ore capacities are gradually released [2][3]. Price Trends - As of September 12, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends: rebar (20mm HRB400) at 3,210 CNY/ton (down 50 CNY), high line (8.0mm) at 3,360 CNY/ton (down 40 CNY), hot-rolled (3.0mm) at 3,450 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), cold-rolled (1.0mm) at 3,800 CNY/ton (unchanged), and medium plate (20mm) at 3,460 CNY/ton (unchanged) [1][9][10]. Production and Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, the total production of five major steel products was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 34,100 tons week-on-week. The total inventory of these products increased by 174,100 tons to 10.9391 million tons [2][5]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.9807 million tons, down 40,000 tons week-on-week, while the average daily transaction volume of construction steel was 103,100 tons, up 6.32% week-on-week [2][5]. Profitability - The report estimates that the gross profit margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel have changed by -31 CNY/ton, +12 CNY/ton, and -8 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week. The gross profit margin for electric arc furnace steel decreased by 11 CNY/ton [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: 1. General Steel Sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special Steel Sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Ltd. 3. Pipe Materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel 4. High-Temperature Alloy: Fushun Special Steel [2][3].

Core Points - Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019) closed at 7.03 yuan on September 12, 2025, up 0.86% from last week's 6.97 yuan [1] - The company's total market capitalization is 154.653 billion yuan, ranking 1st in the flat steel sector and 96th among all A-shares [1] - The highest intraday price was 7.21 yuan on September 9, 2025, and the lowest was 6.92 yuan on September 10, 2025 [1] Trading Information Summary - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, Baosteel experienced five consecutive trading days of block trades, with a total transaction amount of 73.007 million yuan [3] - Specific block trade amounts include 18.278 million yuan on September 12, 14.12 million yuan on September 11, 16.656 million yuan on September 10, 12.019 million yuan on September 9, and 11.934 million yuan on September 8 [1][3] Company Announcement Summary - On September 8, 2025, Baosteel's board received a resignation letter from independent director Tian Yong, effective immediately due to the completion of his six-year term [1] - On September 9, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved Baosteel's application to publicly issue corporate bonds totaling no more than 20 billion yuan to professional investors, valid for 24 months from September 1, 2025 [1][3]

Group 1 - Baosteel Co., Ltd. executed a block trade on September 12, with a transaction volume of 2.6 million shares and a transaction amount of 18.278 million yuan, at a price of 7.03 yuan per share [2] - The buyer and seller of the block trade were both from Huatai Securities Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Zhujiang West Road Securities Branch [2] - In the last three months, Baosteel Co., Ltd. has recorded a total of 6 block trades, with a cumulative transaction amount of 81.0435 million yuan [2] Group 2 - On September 12, Baosteel Co., Ltd. closed at 7.03 yuan, down 0.42%, with a daily turnover rate of 0.85% and a total transaction amount of 1.314 billion yuan [2] - The net outflow of main funds for the day was 209 million yuan, while the stock has increased by 0.86% over the past five days, with a total net outflow of 224 million yuan [2] - The latest margin financing balance for Baosteel Co., Ltd. is 1.214 billion yuan, with an increase of 4.8471 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 0.40% [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.12% on September 12, with 9 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by non-ferrous metals and real estate, which increased by 1.96% and 1.51% respectively [1] - The steel industry ranked third in terms of daily gains, rising by 1.41% [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of 53.64 billion yuan, with 6 sectors seeing net inflows, primarily in the non-ferrous metals sector, which had a net inflow of 2.168 billion yuan [1] - The non-bank financial sector had the largest net outflow, totaling 8.138 billion yuan, followed by the electronics sector with a net outflow of 7.517 billion yuan [1] Steel Industry Performance - The steel industry saw a net inflow of 214 million yuan, with 33 out of 44 stocks in the sector rising, including one stock hitting the daily limit [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the steel sector were Hualing Steel with 180 million yuan, followed by Bayi Steel with 171 million yuan, and Tai Steel with 60.46 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Performance - The top performers in the steel sector included Hualing Steel, which rose by 5.42%, and Bayi Steel, which increased by 10.02% [2][3] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Baosteel with a net outflow of 209 million yuan, Hangang with 85.26 million yuan, and Baogang with 62.14 million yuan [2][3]

| 025-09-12 | 室销股份 | 600019 7.03 | 1827.8 260 | 华泰证券股份有限 A BOOK CONSTITUTION OF THE COLLECTION COLLEGION COLLEGION COLLECTION COLLEGION COLLEGION CONTRACTOR COLLEGION CONTRACT COLLEGION CONTRACT COLLECTION CONTRACT CARDED TO CONTRA | 华泰证券股份有限 company comes comments on the case in | ga | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券商除 | 蓬券代码。 | 成交价(元) 成交金额[万元] 咸交量(*) 莫入营业部 | 公司广州珠江西路 | 美出营业部 公司广州珠江西路 | 是否为专场 | 9月12日，宝钢股份大宗交易成交260万股，成交额1827.8万元，占当日总成交额的1.37%，成交价7.03 元，较市场收盘价7.03元持平。 ...

Group 1 - Baosteel Co., Ltd. executed a block trade on September 11, with a transaction volume of 2 million shares and a transaction amount of 14.12 million yuan, at a price of 7.06 yuan per share [2] - The buyer and seller of the block trade were both from Huatai Securities Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Zhujiang West Road Securities Branch [2] - Over the past three months, Baosteel Co., Ltd. has recorded a total of 5 block trades, with a cumulative transaction amount of 62.77 million yuan [2] Group 2 - On the same day, Baosteel Co., Ltd. closed at 7.06 yuan, reflecting an increase of 1.73%, with a daily turnover rate of 0.44% and a total transaction amount of 666 million yuan [2] - The net outflow of main funds for the day was 8.08 million yuan, while the stock has seen a cumulative increase of 0.28% over the past five days, with a total net outflow of 5.77 million yuan [2] - The latest margin financing balance for Baosteel Co., Ltd. is 1.253 billion yuan, which has increased by 35.48 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 2.91% [2]

Summary of Conference Call on China Steel Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China Steel Industry** and its current dynamics, particularly focusing on supply-side reforms and market conditions for steel production and consumption. Key Points and Arguments Supply Discipline and Production Cuts - Steel supply discipline year-to-date (YTD) is estimated to be behind previous forecasts, with a projected **5%** supply cut for the full year 2025 [1] - A meaningful supply cut is expected in **4Q25**, driven by seasonal factors and rising raw material costs, which may pressure gross profit per ton (GP/t) [3][15] - The anticipated supply-side reform is lagging behind expectations in terms of timeline and execution, with **15 million tons** of crude steel cuts reported in the first seven months of 2025 [2][11] Export Resilience - Steel exports have exceeded expectations, with a projected **70 million tons** for FY25, despite rising anti-dumping measures and geopolitical risks [2][16] - As of July 2025, net steel exports reached approximately **67 million tons**, marking a **12.6%** year-over-year increase [17] - Export dynamics have shifted, with notable increases in shipments to the Middle East and South America, while exports to Vietnam and South Korea have decreased due to tariff risks [22] Apparent Consumption Trends - Apparent consumption is largely in line with forecasts, showing a decline of approximately **2.3%** year-over-year when excluding crude steel production impacts [26] - Construction demand remains weak, with new property starts down **19%** year-over-year, contributing to the overall decline in steel consumption [26] Anti-Involution Efforts - The concept of "anti-involution" in the steel sector is highlighted as a long-term challenge, focusing on improving quality and environmental standards rather than merely cutting supply [3][31] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has introduced new normative conditions for the steel industry, emphasizing high-end product mixes and ultra-low carbon emissions [32] Company-Specific Insights - **Angang Steel (000898.SZ)** is identified as a strong investment opportunity due to its valuation and potential for profit margin improvement as supply cuts take effect [53] - Despite narrowing losses in 1H25, Angang's results fell short of initial forecasts, prompting a revision of earnings estimates for 2025 [54] - The target price for Angang Steel is maintained at **Rmb 3.00** per share, reflecting a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of **0.6x** [55] Market Outlook - The overall sentiment indicates cautious optimism regarding the steel market, with expectations of improved margins and ASP (average selling price) in the long term due to supply-side reforms and anti-involution measures [54][59] Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the need for sustained government efforts to enforce supply cuts, which may be challenging as margins recover [3][31] - The discussion includes detailed data on production capacity, utilization rates, and historical performance metrics for the steel industry, providing a comprehensive view of market dynamics [34][36] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the current state and future outlook of the China steel industry, along with specific company analyses.

Market Performance - On September 11, the general steel sector rose by 1.15%, with Wujin Stainless Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.31, up 1.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12979.89, up 3.36% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Wujin Stainless Steel (603878) closed at 7.05, with a gain of 7.63% and a trading volume of 683,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 472 million yuan [1] - Shougang Co. (000959) closed at 4.22, up 2.43%, with a trading volume of 364,500 shares and a transaction value of 152 million yuan [1] - Baotou Steel (600010) closed at 2.48, up 2.06%, with a trading volume of 9,690,400 shares and a transaction value of 2.377 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performances include Baosteel (600019) at 7.06 (+1.73%), and Maanshan Steel (600808) at 3.64 (+1.39%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The steel sector saw a net inflow of 106 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of approximately 89.64 million yuan [2] - Notably, Wujin Stainless Steel had a net inflow of 4.02 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 10.98 million yuan [3] - Baotou Steel had a significant net inflow of 103 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating strong institutional interest [3]