Group 1 - The 2025 Fortune China 500 list was released, showing a total revenue of $14.2 trillion for the listed companies in 2024, a decrease of approximately 2.7% compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit of these companies reached $756.4 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of about 7% [1] - The revenue threshold for companies to be listed this year was approximately $3.62 billion, down about 3% from last year [1] Group 2 - Notable growth among Chinese internet companies includes JD.com at 11th place (up 2 spots), Alibaba at 18th (up 3 spots), Tencent at 32nd (up 6 spots), and Pinduoduo, Meituan, and Xiaomi entering the top 100 [1] - Bilibili made its debut on the list, being the only internet company among the new entrants, achieving adjusted net profit for the first time in Q3 2024 after years of losses [1] Group 3 - The top ten most profitable companies included five commercial banks and China National Petroleum, with notable private enterprises like TSMC, Tencent, Alibaba, and Ping An also making the list [2] - TSMC ranked 4th with a net profit of $36.09 billion, while Tencent's net profit grew over 65% to exceed $26.9 billion, placing it 6th [2] - The total profit of these ten companies was approximately $311.5 billion, accounting for about 41% of the total profit of all listed companies [2] Group 4 - State Grid Corporation of China topped the list with revenue of $548.4 billion, followed by China National Petroleum and Sinopec in second and third places, respectively [2] - Among the seven beverage companies listed, three liquor companies—Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu—ranked in the top ten for net profit margin [2] Group 5 - The automotive company Seres saw the largest ranking increase, rising 235 places due to a significant sales increase and over 300% revenue growth, achieving profitability [2] - Three airlines—China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines—were listed, showing significant reduction in losses despite not yet achieving profitability [2]

——石化化工反内卷稳增长系列之四 石油化工/基础化工 增持（维持） 7 月 18 日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍 2025 年上半年工业和 信息化发展情况。工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋表示，将实施新一轮钢铁、有 色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，推动重点行业着力调结构、 优供给、淘汰落后产能，具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。 要点 点评： 事件： 2025 年 7 月 22 日 行业研究 老旧装置退出有望改善炼油景气度，炼化产业转型加速 炼油老旧装置占比较高，老旧产能淘汰助力行业竞争力提升 我国炼油行业起步较早，1958 年兰州石化投产填补了我国石油化工行业空 白，改革开放后炼油行业进入快速发展期，至 2000 年我国炼油能力为 3.6 亿吨， 2005 年我国原油加工量为 2.86 亿吨，为 2024 年原油加工量的 40%。炼油行业 发展过程中产生了大量建设历史较久老旧装置，根据中国石化 2001 年披露的 A 股招股说明书，2000 年中国石化拥有原油一次加工能力 1.3 亿吨，相当于公司 2024 年炼能的 44%，拥有 13 家炼能超过 500 万吨的炼厂和茂名、镇海、齐鲁、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The safety management of Sinopec's gas stations in Hubei is under severe scrutiny due to high fire hazards, with a significant percentage of stations found to have safety violations during recent inspections [1][2]. Summary by Categories Inspection Results - In June 2025, a random inspection by Hubei fire departments revealed that out of 47 Sinopec gas stations checked, 28 were found to have fire hazards, resulting in a non-compliance rate of 59.6% [1]. - Specific actions taken included: - 11 stations were ordered to immediately rectify issues - 3 stations were given a deadline for corrections - 7 stations were ordered to make corrections - 7 stations were deemed non-compliant during the inspection [1][4]. Geographic Distribution of Issues - The inspection covered gas stations across 17 cities in Hubei, indicating that the actual number of stations with fire hazards may be much higher than reported [2]. - Notable cities with reported issues include: - Huanggang: 11 stations ordered to rectify [4] - Xiangyang: 6 stations found non-compliant [5] - Yichang: 5 stations ordered to rectify [5] - Xianning: 3 stations ordered to rectify [5] - Tianmen: 2 stations ordered to rectify [5] - Ezhou: 1 station found non-compliant [5]. Historical Context - A previous incident in December 2022 involved a fire at a Sinopec gas station in Hubei, highlighting ongoing safety concerns [4]. - Monthly reports indicate that Sinopec gas stations in Hubei are frequently cited for safety violations, suggesting systemic issues within the safety management framework [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that policy changes are expected to drive medium to long-term recovery in the industry, with a continued positive outlook on resource sector performance exceeding expectations [2][9] - The petrochemical sector is anticipated to stabilize growth, with the retirement of outdated facilities likely to enhance industry recovery [9][17] - The report emphasizes the sustained optimism regarding the agricultural resource chain, particularly in the phosphate and potassium sectors, which are expected to maintain a relatively balanced supply-demand situation despite concerns over new capacity releases [9][17] Summary by Sections Price and Price Spread Changes - The report monitors 188 chemical products, noting that the top three price increases were for liquid chlorine (up 21.8%), TDI 80/20 (up 18.8%), and natural gas (up 6.3%), while the largest declines were for D4 (down 9.6%), butane (down 6.7%), and acrylic acid (down 5.0%) [14][18] - The top three price spreads that increased were PTA (up 1103.7%), TDI spread (up 30.1%), and acrylic acid butyl ester spread (up 25.6%), with the largest declines in styrene (down 36.5%), oil head propylene spread (down 36.1%), and polyethylene spread (down 20.8%) [19][18] Industry Recovery Expectations - There is a continuous expectation for industry bottom recovery, driven by policy changes and market dynamics [12] - The report indicates that the petrochemical sector has been in a prolonged low phase, and recent policy adjustments are likely to enhance market expectations for recovery [9][17] Agricultural Resource Sector Outlook - The agricultural resource sector, particularly phosphate and potassium, is expected to remain in a relatively tight supply-demand balance, with traditional agricultural needs and emerging demands contributing to this stability [9][17]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant advancements and achievements in China's clean energy supply chain, showcasing its role in global energy transition and sustainability efforts [1][6]. Industry Overview - China's clean energy investment has reached $625 billion, accounting for one-third of global investments, with the country leading in new energy vehicle sales, solar, and wind power installations for ten consecutive years [1][2]. - Over 80% of global solar components and 70% of wind power equipment are manufactured in China, indicating the country's comprehensive clean energy industrial chain [1]. Key Developments - Major companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Sinopec are pivotal in stabilizing the energy supply chain, with CNOOC achieving a 92% localization rate in core equipment for deep-sea oil and gas development [2]. - Sinopec has established the world's largest green hydrogen project in Xinjiang, with an annual capacity of 20,000 tons, demonstrating advancements in flexible hydrogen production technology [2]. Technological Innovations - Innovations such as the 5 MW chemical chain combustion system by Dongfang Electric can reduce carbon capture costs by two-thirds, enhancing the economic viability of clean coal utilization [3][4]. - Sinopec's advancements in hydrogen production have led to a 30% reduction in manufacturing costs for alkaline electrolysis cells, making green hydrogen more accessible [3]. Global Collaboration - CNOOC's overseas operations span over 40 countries, establishing a robust energy network that supports energy security in the Asia-Pacific region [4][5]. - The Belt and Road Initiative has facilitated green energy project collaborations with over 100 countries, contributing to local energy shortages and promoting global energy transition [5][6]. Future Directions - The clean energy supply chain is expected to focus on enhancing hydrogen storage and transportation technologies, improving system collaboration, and expanding high-level openness to international standards [6].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Zhongyin New Opportunities Mixed A (002057) reported a profit of 10.82 thousand yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0086 yuan, and a net asset value growth rate of 0.72% during the period [3][4]. Fund Performance - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's scale was 1,446.05 thousand yuan [15]. - The fund's unit net value as of July 21 was 1.201 yuan [3]. - The fund's performance over different time frames includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 0.80%, ranking 130 out of 142 comparable funds [4]. - 6-month net value growth rate: 0.48%, ranking 130 out of 142 comparable funds [4]. - 1-year net value growth rate: 1.59%, ranking 139 out of 142 comparable funds [4]. - 3-year net value growth rate: 3.36%, ranking 96 out of 142 comparable funds [4]. Investment Strategy - The fund maintained a low equity position during Q2, focusing on sectors such as banking, public utilities, energy, and non-bank financials [4]. - The strategy included increasing exposure to the banking sector, particularly high-dividend and low-valuation banks, while slightly reducing holdings in the energy sector and lowering allocations in the operator and automotive sectors [4]. - Fixed income investments primarily included financial bonds and convertible bonds, with an increased duration to capitalize on bond market opportunities [4]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was -0.3497, ranking 118 out of 142 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 3.17%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2020 at 4.64% [11]. Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included: - Nanjing Bank - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - Yangtze Power - Ping An Insurance - Shanghai Bank - China Construction Bank - Sinopec - Pudong Development Bank - China International Capital Corporation - Jiangsu Bank [19].

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a mixed performance with banking and insurance stocks continuing to decline, while the liquor and food & beverage sectors experienced gains [1][6]. Banking Sector - Major banks like China Everbright Bank reported a market capitalization of 249.93 billion with a trading volume of 446 million, showing a decline of 0.09 (-1.59%) [3]. - China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of 436.27 billion, 347.77 billion, and 1,028.70 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 991 million, 2.11 billion, and 462 million, reflecting declines of 0.51 (-1.39%), 0.70 (-1.22%), and 0.07 (-0.83%) [3]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector continued to face downward pressure, with significant declines in major companies [3]. Liquor Industry - The liquor sector saw positive movement, with Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye reporting market capitalizations of 1,820.06 billion, 225.24 billion, and 482.06 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 2.14 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.15 billion, with increases of 4.34 (+2.41%), 1.63 (+1.33%), and 5.86 (+0.41%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry showed varied performance, with Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information having market capitalizations of 229.98 billion, 248.67 billion, and 316.92 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 1.33 billion, 2.71 billion, and 1.24 billion, with changes of -1.34 (-0.42%), +12.40 (+2.13%), and -0.32 (-0.23%) [3]. Oil Industry - The oil sector, including companies like Sinopec and PetroChina, reported market capitalizations of 725.05 billion and 1,643.53 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 758 million and 563 million, showing slight increases [3]. Coal Industry - The coal sector, represented by companies like Shenhua Group and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, had market capitalizations of 750.04 billion and 189.83 billion respectively, with minimal changes in stock prices [3]. Automotive Sector - The automotive sector, led by BYD, reported a market capitalization of 1,849.01 billion with a trading volume of 3.54 billion, showing a slight increase of 2.39 (+0.72%) [3]. Other Sectors - Various other sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and logistics showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing gains while others faced declines [4][6].

Core Insights - The hydrogen energy industry is rapidly developing under the "dual carbon" goals, with significant projects underway, including the world's largest green hydrogen and ammonia integration project in Songyuan, Jilin Province, and a large-scale green hydrogen to methanol project in Inner Mongolia [1][2] - The Chinese government is actively promoting hydrogen energy through various policies and pilot programs, which has instilled confidence in industry stakeholders and accelerated development [2][3] - Companies are increasingly focusing on hydrogen energy, forming strategic partnerships and investing in technology to enhance production, storage, and transportation capabilities [3][4] Policy and Capital Support - The National Energy Administration has initiated hydrogen energy pilot projects to explore diverse development paths and promote the entire hydrogen energy supply chain [2] - Local governments, such as Fujian and Wuhan, have released long-term plans and action schemes to support hydrogen energy development [2] - The industry is experiencing a surge in favorable policies, which are boosting confidence among stakeholders [2] Technological Advancements - Electrolysis of water is a primary method for hydrogen production, with significant advancements in technology leading to a projected increase in production capacity by approximately 62% in 2024 [4] - Various electrolysis technologies, including alkaline, proton exchange membrane (PEM), and solid oxide (SOEC), are being developed to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [4] - Companies are investing heavily in research and development, with some allocating over 20% of their revenue to R&D efforts [4] Industry Collaboration and Challenges - The hydrogen energy sector faces challenges in achieving commercial viability, particularly in storage and transportation [5][7] - A significant project for long-distance hydrogen transportation via pipeline has been approved, which is expected to lower transportation costs compared to liquid hydrogen [5][7] - Industry stakeholders are encouraged to collaborate across the supply chain to optimize technology, cost control, and infrastructure development [5][6][7] Market Dynamics - The focus of capital investment is shifting from application to supply, emphasizing the importance of cost-effective hydrogen sources for market scalability [3] - The green hydrogen projects require substantial investment and a comprehensive assessment of the entire supply chain to ensure economic viability [7] - The hydrogen industry is still in its early stages, with many companies being relatively small, necessitating collaboration to address market demands and drive growth [7]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have initiated an assessment of aging equipment in the petrochemical industry, with provinces like Hunan and Shandong already starting this evaluation [1] - The aging chemical equipment, some over 30 to 40 years old, poses safety risks due to corrosion and outdated design standards, necessitating updates and replacements [1] - A draft method for assessing aging chemical installations has been released, focusing on facilities that have reached their design lifespan or have been in operation for over 20 years [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently facing profitability pressures, but the introduction of a growth plan for the petrochemical sector may lead to the elimination of outdated capacity and an improved competitive landscape [2] - Key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, are set to receive growth plans aimed at structural adjustments and the elimination of inefficient capacity [2] - Analysts suggest that the petrochemical sector may need to control capacity and approve fewer new projects due to potential overcapacity [2] Group 3 - The growth rate of domestic refining capacity is expected to slow down in 2024, with a significant focus on controlling crude oil processing capacity to remain under 1 billion tons by 2025 [3] - Policies aimed at phasing out inefficient refining capacity are expected to continue, potentially leading to a reduction in refining capacity growth and an improved competitive environment [3] - Future projections indicate that refining capacity growth may slow significantly from 2025 to 2026, with possible negative growth in 2027 to 2028 [3] Group 4 - Private refining companies are focusing on shareholder returns, maintaining high dividend payout ratios, and entering a phase of improving free cash flow [4] - Current valuations of private refining companies may be below the equity value of their refining assets, indicating potential long-term investment value [4] - Analysts recommend focusing on leading refining companies such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Sinopec, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The reduction of butadiene inventory supports the raw material price of synthetic rubber. However, the overall supply of the cis - butadiene rubber fundamentals remains relatively loose. Although the factory inventory is being depleted smoothly, the inventory of traders continues to accumulate. The market is waiting for an increase in new downstream orders. It is expected that the synthetic rubber will remain in a destocking state in the short - term, and the price will remain stable and show an oscillating upward trend [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec's ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total, and PetroChina's sales companies' ex - factory prices decreased by 300 yuan/ton in total. As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis in China was between 11,400 - 11,600 yuan/ton. The early continuous price - pressing transactions led to a significant market inversion. The price cut at the beginning of the week was in line with market expectations. The spot supply side changed little, the raw material end saw better transactions after the price decline, and the futures market of synthetic rubber quickly strengthened, driving the low - price range of the spot end to rise significantly. However, downstream terminals still maintained price - pressing purchases, and the spot market followed up slowly [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 101,800 tons (- 2.86%), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.89%. Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical 3, and a set of Shanghai Secco remained shut down. Sheng Hong restarted after a short - term shutdown, which affected the production decline [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Last week, the production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 26,300 tons (- 2.16%), and the capacity utilization rate was 65.54%. Only a few devices had a slight decline in load this week. Some maintenance devices in North China may restart in the next cycle [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel tires**: The domestic replacement market was stable during the cycle. The market had regular shipments. The continuous high - temperature weather in many regions slightly boosted the terminal replacement, but the current market inventory was high, and the focus was on digesting the existing inventory. - **All - steel tires**: Similar to the semi - steel tire market, there was no obvious performance yet. Market merchants at all levels were mainly digesting previous inventories. Some brand agents carried out small - scale self - promotions this month according to their own inventory situations. - **Overall situation**: Currently, enterprise production scheduling tends to be stable. There is an expected increase in orders in the middle of the month, which is expected to slightly drive the overall start - up, but the overall fluctuation is expected to be small. The overall market shipment is tepid, the channel supply is sufficient, and the increase in terminal demand is limited. Although the hot weather has driven the downstream market demand to some extent, the overall effect is average [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 23,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.69%. The import shipments last week were limited, the downstream raw material inventory was normally consumed, and the recent trading volume was limited, which led to a significant decline in the sample port inventory. The enterprise inventory increased slightly, but there was no overall pressure [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Last week, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. The expected price cut of the supply price, affected by the failure of an upstream device in East China at the butadiene raw material end, led to a slight overall increase in the production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in the sample trading enterprise inventory [3]. 3.4 Other Factors Analysis 3.4.1 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 165 yuan/ton, in East China was - 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 65 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the futures price oscillated upward, the basis narrowed and remained stable, and the futures price was at a premium to the spot price [3]. 3.4.2 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 3,090 yuan/ton (12.57%), the NR - BR spread was 955 yuan/ton (25.66%), and the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.32% [3]. 3.4.3 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was 66 yuan/ton, and the production gross profit by C4 extraction was 1,750.82 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 276 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 2.30% [3]. 3.4.4 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - OPEC maintained its 2025 crude oil demand forecast in its July report, and oil - producing countries continued their production increase progress. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased, but gasoline and diesel inventories increased significantly. The refined oil market was weaker than the crude oil market. China's average annual growth rate of foreign investment exceeded 5%, and the total scale ranked among the top three in the world. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy continued, and China's "anti - involution" policy continued to advance [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Oscillating. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Also, pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance situations, and geopolitical issues [3].