今年4月，上海出现了3个"日光盘"。 从众多城市来看，分化行情仍然延续。 "我们明天（4月29日）就去认购第二批。"4月28日，买房人张晨通过微信告诉《每日经济新闻》记者。 他们认购的浦东新杨思"地王"项目翡雲悦府第一批开盘，由于摇号排名靠后，没机会选到房子。 得益于今年的楼市"小阳春"，多家头部房企1~4月继续保持优势。 近日，中指研究院、亿翰智库、克而瑞等多家机构公布今年1~4月房地产企业销售业绩排行榜。中指研 究院统计显示，前4个月TOP100房企销售总额为11198.6亿元，同比下降10.2%，降幅较1~3月基本持 平。4月单月，百强房企销售额同比下降16.9%，较3月单月降幅有所扩大。 保利发展领跑 据中指研究院统计，今年前4月，保利发展累计销售额876亿元，领跑百强房企；绿城中国和华润置地累 计销售额分别为710.2亿元和685亿元，排在第二和第三位。 分阵营来看，TOP10房企销售额均值为542.3亿元，较上年下降9.9%；TOP11~30房企销售额均值为137.3 亿元，同比下降12.5%；TOP31~50房企销售额均值为69.2亿元，同比下降2.5%；TOP51~100房企销售额 均值为32 ...

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 05 月 05 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 房地产 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 4 月销售热度回落，房企业绩继续承压 看好 ——地产及物管行业周报（2025/04/26-2025/05/02） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：调控政策超预期收紧，销售去化不及预期；物管行业人工成本上行超预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 评 告 ⚫ 地产行业数据：一二手房成交环比分化，新房成交推盘比下滑。上周（25/4/26-25/5/2） 34 个重点城市新房合计成交 249 万平米，环比+20%；其中，一二线环比+22%、三四 线环比-9%；4 月一手房月成交同比-18%，较 3 月-18pct；其中，一二线同比-13%、三 四线同比-52%，分别较 3 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 04 年 月 日 房地产 重点标的 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | | EPS（元） | | | | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 001979.SZ | 招商蛇口 | 买入 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.55 | 0.62 | 21.50 | 18.61 | 16.55 | 14.76 | | 002244.SZ | 滨江集团 | 买入 | 0.82 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 0.99 | 12.20 | 11.57 | 10.92 | 10.50 | | 600048.SH | 保利发展 | 买入 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 19.90 | 19.60 | 17.75 | 15.92 | | 600325. ...

行 业 及 产 业 房地产 2025 年 05 月 05 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 新房销售热度回落，房企分化仍然明显 点评： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 4 月房企销售额单月同比-23.5%/累计同比-16.1%，分别较前值-4.1pct/-3.3pct，销售边际出现回 落。根据克而瑞数据，2025 年 4 月，50 家房企单月销售金额 1,948 亿元，同比-23.5%、较前值- 4.1pct；销售面积为 1,071 万方，同比-26.1%、较前值-6.7pct。2025 年 1-4 月累计销售金额 7,563 亿元，同比-16.1%、较前值-3.3ct；销售面积 3,951 万方，同比-22.0%、较前值-2.5pct。24 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing gradual release of performance pressure, with advantages in financing and sales [6] - Despite a decline in revenue and profit, the company maintains its leading sales ranking and continues to optimize its land reserve structure [6][8] - The company has a significant cost advantage in financing, with a reduction in debt costs and an increase in direct financing [9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 311.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 billion yuan, down 58.6% [7] - The gross margin and net margin were 13.9% and 3.1%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [7] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 54.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of 1.95 billion yuan, down 12.3% [7] Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a signed sales amount of 323.03 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 23.5%, while maintaining the top sales ranking [8] - The total land acquisition amount was 68.3 billion yuan, down 58% year-on-year, with 74% of the acquisitions in first-tier cities [8] Debt and Financing - The company added 166.4 billion yuan in interest-bearing debt in 2024, with a comprehensive cost of debt decreasing by 22 basis points to 2.92% [9] - The asset-liability ratio decreased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year to 74.3%, marking four consecutive years of decline [9] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 5.68 billion, 6.56 billion, and 7.51 billion yuan, respectively [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period is projected to be 0.47, 0.55, and 0.63 yuan [6]

房地产开发 2025W18：受五一假期影响，本周二手房成交环比走弱 降准降息或已在路上，未来新发房贷利率有望下破 3%。据央行，2025 年 第一季度全国新发放商业性个人住房贷款加权平均利率为 3.11%，与 2024 年四季度接近，相较 5 年期以上 LPR 减点约 50bp。主要是自 2024 年 11 月以来，5 年期以上 LPR 报价保持 3.6%不变。中央在多次会议提到 "适时降准降息"，考虑到外部环境的急剧变化和冲击，我们认为降准降 息或已在路上，未来全国平均新发房贷利率有望下破 3%。货币政策作为 宏观调控关键手段，对房地产大周期影响深远，一方面减轻购房信贷负担， 另一方面少部分城市贷款成本或将逐步靠拢住房租金回报率，对楼市的稳 定产生一定积极效果。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为-3.0%，落后沪深 300 指 数 2.61 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 31 名。 新房：本周30个城市新房成交面积为207.4万平方米，环比提升22.9%， 同比提升 26.2%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 65.8 万方，环比 +40.5%，同比+32.6%；样本二线城市为 91 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the real estate industry, with a focus on companies that can adapt to current market conditions and maintain financial stability [6]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a downward trend in sales and profitability, with many companies facing significant challenges in revenue generation and net profit margins [3][4]. - There is a notable differentiation in recovery trends between first-tier cities and other regions, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong land acquisition capabilities in cities like Hangzhou [6]. Balance Sheet Summary - Most key real estate companies meet the "three red lines" requirements, although there is an increase in asset impairment losses [2][13]. - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio has declined for many companies, indicating a tightening of liquidity [13][21]. - The proportion of short-term interest-bearing liabilities has increased, particularly for Vanke, reflecting higher short-term repayment pressures [21]. - The inventory structure shows an increase in completed but unsold inventory, as companies focus on clearing existing stock amid declining sales [23][25]. - Contract liabilities have decreased for most companies, indicating ongoing sales pressure [28][29]. - Asset impairment losses have increased for many firms, highlighting the challenges in maintaining asset quality [34][38]. Income Statement Summary - Revenue pressures persist, with 9 out of 14 key companies reporting a year-on-year decline in revenue [3][41]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders has decreased for most companies, with Vanke experiencing a significant loss increase of over 600 million [46][48]. - Gross and net profit margins continue to decline, with only a few companies like China Jinmao and Jianfa International showing resilience [49][53]. - Selling and administrative expense ratios have varied, with some companies managing to reduce these costs effectively [54][58]. - The proportion of minority shareholder losses has increased, reflecting the overall industry downturn [63][64]. Cash Flow Statement Summary - Operating cash flow remains positive for most companies, with some like China Resources and Longfor showing strong performance [67][71]. - Financing cash flow has seen a net outflow trend, aligning with the overall contraction in the sector [76][79]. Operational Summary - Sales figures are generally declining, with only a few companies like Poly and China Overseas achieving significant sales volumes [81][83]. - Investment amounts have decreased significantly, with state-owned enterprises and improvement-focused companies dominating the land market [88][91]. - The land reserve area has declined, but companies still maintain sufficient reserves to support future sales [94][96]. - Financing costs for developers have decreased, with major state-owned enterprises leading in favorable financing conditions [99][100]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong land acquisition capabilities in key cities, particularly those that can offer improvement products [6]. - It suggests a cautious selection of leading state-owned enterprises like China Overseas Development and Poly Development, which are expected to improve their gross margins post-2025 [6][101].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Poly Developments [1][10] Core Views - The company's revenue performance is under short-term pressure, but its leading position in the industry remains solid [1][10] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 311.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.00 billion yuan, down 58.56% year-on-year [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 54.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.09%, with a net profit of 1.95 billion yuan, down 12.27% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the full year of 2024 [4][5] Revenue and Profitability - The company's sales amount for 2024 was 323.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%, with a sales area of 17.97 million square meters, down 24.7% [6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 2 percentage points to 14% [5][10] - The company has maintained its sales amount as the industry leader for two consecutive years [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company focuses on core cities, with a sales market share in 38 core cities increasing by 2 percentage points to 90% in 2024 [6][7] - The company expanded its land acquisition in 2024 with a total land price of 68.3 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry, with 99% of the investment located in 38 core cities [7] Debt and Financing - As of the end of 2024, the company's interest-bearing debt was reduced by 5.4 billion yuan to 348.8 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio decreasing by 2.2 percentage points to 74.3% [9] - The financing cost continued to decline, with the comprehensive cost of newly added interest-bearing debt down 22 basis points to 2.92% [9][10] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.21 billion yuan, 5.40 billion yuan, and 6.07 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10] - Corresponding PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 19.25X, 18.54X, and 16.51X [10]

2025.05. 02 此外，万科地产、建发房产位于四百亿阵营，销售额分别为428.5亿元、426.7亿元，华发股份、越 秀地产、滨江集团卡位最后三个TOP10位次，销售金额分别为353.1亿元、312.4亿元、272.4亿 元。 鉴于楼市仍在恢复进程中，4月百强房企各梯队的销售门槛也出现一定分化，TOP10、TOP30和 TOP50房企的销售操盘金额门槛均有不同程度提升，而TOP20房企销售操盘金额门槛同比降低8.9% 至112.6亿元，TOP100房企门槛降低3.1%至17.9亿元。 在今年召开的业绩发布会上，房企已鲜少提及销售目标，大多判断将维持在近年平均水平。业内表 示，这说明房企不再唯"销售金额"论，将聚焦高质量发展部分，提升签约回款率，以优质项目修复毛 利率。 在销售策略上，房企多实施"一城一策、因城施策"营销策略，以加快应对市场的反应速度，确保每个 项目都有合理流速，持续去化的同时优化区域土储结构。同时，加强自有渠道的建设力度，通过数字 化营销降本增效。 本文字数：1230，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 楼市传统"金三银四"时期，房企销售业绩如何？ 克而瑞发布的最新数据显示，4 ...

楼市传统"金三银四"时期，房企销售业绩如何？ 楼市传统"金三银四"时期，房企销售业绩如何？ 克而瑞发布的最新数据显示，4月，TOP100房企实现销售操盘金额2846.8亿元，累计业绩来看，百强房 企1-4月实现销售操盘金额10181.7亿元，同比降低6.7%，整体延续止跌回稳态势。 从房企销售阵营看，保利发展稳居榜首位置，前四月销售操盘金额806.1亿元，绿城中国、中海地产销 售金额分别为710.2亿元、613.9亿元，华润置地、招商蛇口位居第四、第五位，销售额为616.1亿元、 473.1亿元。 此外，万科地产、建发房产位于四百亿阵营，销售额分别为428.5亿元、426.7亿元，华发股份、越秀地 产、滨江集团卡位最后三个TOP10位次，销售金额分别为353.1亿元、312.4亿元、272.4亿元。 在销售策略上，房企多实施"一城一策、因城施策"营销策略，以加快应对市场的反应速度，确保每个项 目都有合理流速，持续去化的同时优化区域土储结构。同时，加强自有渠道的建设力度，通过数字化营 销降本增效。 因销售市场冷热不均，当下房企在投资时也聚焦高能级城市，以效率为先，更加关注收益确定性高的项 目。唯有在一线或强二线 ...