Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for the A-share market in 2026, emphasizing the importance of economic work and investment strategies as China enters a critical period of its "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Outlook - A-share company profit growth is expected to show a "low first, high later" trend in 2026, influenced by the US-China trade dynamics and the upcoming US midterm elections [3][5]. - The international order's restructuring and China's industrial innovation are anticipated to support A-share performance, with a market trend of initial growth followed by stabilization [6][8]. - The nominal GDP growth in China is projected to reach 6.45% in 2026, significantly higher than in 2025, indicating a recovery in corporate earnings [21]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Sector Focus - Key investment themes include the global pricing power in manufacturing, the expansion of Chinese companies overseas, the continuation of the tech trend with AI, and the potential recovery in domestic demand [5][8][19]. - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with clear growth trends, such as AI applications, machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy equipment [5][8][19]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern, with a focus on industries experiencing supply constraints and clear growth trends, such as AI and energy storage [11][25]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - The article highlights the need for policies that support long-term market stability and the development of new industries, particularly in technology and innovation [6][17][24]. - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to improve competition in traditional industries and stimulate domestic demand, contributing to overall market recovery [15][17]. - The capital market is anticipated to transition from valuation-driven to profit-driven dynamics, with a focus on sectors that can benefit from both traditional and emerging growth drivers [15][19].

特朗普与马杜罗政府的恩怨由来已久。 特朗普在第一任期就表现出门罗主义倾向，对西半球不够亲美的国家政权在意识形态等方面存在天然的 个人好恶。 2018年马杜罗竞选总统连任后，特朗普率先宣布反对派领袖为委内瑞拉临时总统，导致委美断交。随 后，特朗普对委内瑞拉和马杜罗政府展开了一系列制裁。2020年，美国司法部以"毒品恐怖主义"罪名起 诉马杜罗，悬赏1500万美元。及至第二任期，特朗普进一步加大施压力度，去年9月以来，美国在海上 多次打击委内瑞拉船只，并封锁油轮。 临近中选，打击马杜罗政府有利于巩固和提升基本盘的支持。 多年以来，特朗普致力于塑造马杜罗政府向美国大量输送非法移民和毒品的形象，MAGA群体对此类 叙事尤为买账。另外，美国拉丁裔过往常年支持民主党，2024年大选因通胀等原因倒向共和党，但是过 去一年对特朗普的支持率又快速下降。以古巴裔和委内瑞拉裔为代表的右翼拉丁裔广泛分布在得克萨斯 州、佛罗里达州等地，打击马杜罗政府将提升这部分群体的好感。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研究报告称，如果美国推动"美企控盘式"的委内瑞拉增产，短期油价 更可能被"风险溢价+OPEC+控制供给节奏"托住甚至回升，而非因增产 ...

Group 1 - The chief strategist of Guojin Securities, Miao Yiling, predicts that the ROE of the A-share non-financial real estate sector will increase from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" zone to a higher profitability phase [1] - Miao suggests four main investment lines: industrial resources, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a focus on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the U.S. and Europe are experiencing characteristics such as "investment stronger than consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, with an increase in foreign tourists due to trade settlement rate recovery and visa-free entry, leading to improved net profit margins in industries such as aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverages [2] - In terms of funding, there is a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" investments, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their allocation to equities; the policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage will resonate with the recovery of the non-bank sector and ROE [2]

Core Insights - The capital market showed positive trends in 2025, with active trading reflected in the turnover data of the "Long Hu Bang" (龙虎榜) trading departments, reaching 3.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1][2] - The competition among brokerage firms intensified, with significant changes in the rankings of the top 100 trading departments, highlighting the emergence of several "dark horse" departments [1][3] Trading Volume and Rankings - In 2025, a total of 7,029 brokerage departments appeared on the Long Hu Bang 123,900 times, with a total trading volume of 3.34 trillion yuan, marking a 42.6% year-on-year increase [2] - The top 100 trading departments accounted for 2.26 trillion yuan, representing 67.66% of the total trading volume, indicating a strong head effect [2] - The top ten positions saw significant representation from Oriental Fortune Securities, which held three spots, with the top position taken by the Lhasa Tuanjie Road department at 127.87 billion yuan [2] Emergence of New Players - New entrants made notable advancements, such as Kaiyuan Securities' Xi'an Xidajie department rising from 27th to 3rd place, and UBS and Goldman Sachs' Shanghai departments entering the top ten [2][3] - Several "dark horse" departments made significant leaps, including Guotai Junan's Shanghai Jing'an New Zha Road department moving from 559th to 14th, and Guosheng Securities' Ningbo Tiantong South Road department from 1014th to 48th [3] Growth of Branch Offices - The rankings of many brokerage branch offices improved significantly, showcasing their growth potential, with 22 branch offices appearing in the top 100 list [3] - Notably, Guoxin Securities' Zhejiang Internet branch, established only about five years ago, entered the top ten, while Guojin Securities' Shenzhen branch improved from 65th to 26th [3] Foreign Brokerage Participation - Six foreign brokerage departments made it into the top 50, reflecting their increasing importance in the market [4] - UBS's Shanghai Garden Shiqiao Road department and Goldman Sachs' Shanghai Pudong Century Avenue department ranked 8th and 9th, respectively, with significant improvements from the previous year [4] Market Trends and Insights - The changes in the Long Hu Bang rankings reflect the competitive landscape among brokerages, indicating differences in client scale, market share, and overall strength [5] - The trading activities of the top departments suggest a preference for sectors such as general equipment, chemical products, computer software, automotive, and semiconductors [5]

格隆汇1月4日丨国金证券(600109.SH)公布，国金证券股份有限公司2023年面向专业投资者公开发行公 司债券(第一期)，将于2026年1月12日开始支付自2025年1月12日至2026年1月11日期间的最后一个年度 利息和本期债券本金。 ...

格隆汇1月4日丨国金证券(600109.SH)公布，国金证券股份有限公司2023年面向专业投资者公开发行公 司债券(第一期)，将于2026年1月12日开始支付自2025年1月12日至2026年1月11日期间的最后一个年度 利息和本期债券本金。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global risk assets have maintained a steady upward trend in a low volatility environment, while commodity prices have risen with increased volatility [1][7] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown particularly strong performance, leading among major global indices, driven by the spillover of US dollar liquidity and industrial catalysts [1][7] - High volatility in asset prices has been observed in the commodity market, indicating a fragile low inventory environment [1][7] Group 2: Long-term Perspective - Industrial metal values relative to US financial assets and broad money supply are at a 20-year low, indicating that physical assets are undervalued [8] - Future demand shocks from industrial changes and supply-side trade policy shifts, combined with low inventory and monetary easing, may amplify asset price volatility [8] - AI investment and the global manufacturing cycle recovery are key drivers for commodity markets in the medium term [8] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - The latest manufacturing PMI for December exceeded expectations, indicating positive changes in the economic fundamentals [9] - Production has shown an unseasonal increase, with improvements in production, procurement, and business expectations, alongside a rise in inventory indices [9] - New domestic demand expansion policies are being implemented, including a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods and a significant investment plan of approximately 295 billion yuan to stabilize investment [9] Group 4: Seasonal Market Trends - Historical data shows a clear seasonal effect in market performance at year-end, with December typically favoring large-cap value stocks [11] - The current market rebound began in late November, coinciding with a downward trend in the US dollar index, aligning with the recovery of global risk assets [11] - The "spring rally" may already be underway, with high trading volumes in popular sectors reflecting increased risk appetite [11] Group 5: Changing Market Dynamics - The internal driving logic of the market is changing, with domestic economic data and early policy implementations acting as new catalysts [12] - The reliance on marginal improvements in overseas liquidity may not be sustainable, leading to a focus on assets with clearer fundamental signals and lower volatility [12] - Recommended investment areas include industrial resource products aligned with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery [12][5]

Core Viewpoint - Guojin Securities report indicates that China Jushi's stock incentive plan has been introduced, signaling a new demand cycle, and maintains a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, China Jushi's net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, reached 2.57 billion yuan, suggesting a high probability of achieving the incentive targets [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The price of wind power yarn and long-term contract prices are showing a stable upward trend, with guidance indicating a price increase of 5-10% next year [1] - The outlook for demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" for offshore wind and overseas markets is optimistic [1] Group 3: Competitive Position - China Jushi has the capability for refined product layout, particularly in the 7628 electronic cloth sector, where it is a latecomer but has a significant cost advantage over the industry [1]

| 证券代码：600109 | 证券简称：国金证券 | | | 公告编号：临 2026－1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：138813 | 债券简称：23 | 国金 | 01 | | 国金证券股份有限公司 2023年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第一期） 2025年本息兑付及摘牌公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 国金证券股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债 券(第一期)（以下简称"本期债券"），将于 2026 年 1 月 12 日开始支 付自 2025 年 1 月 12 日至 2026 年 1 月 11 日期间的最后一个年度利息 和本期债券本金。为保证还本付息工作的顺利进行，现将有关事宜公 告如下： 一、本期债券的基本情况 1、债券名称：国金证券股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公 开发行公司债券(第一期) 2、债券简称：23 国金 01 3、债券代码：138813.SH 4、发行人：国金证券股份有限公司 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite a slowdown in central bank gold purchases expected by 2025, speculative funds are driving gold prices higher, with short-term corrections influenced by sentiment and technical factors. The underlying support logic remains unchanged amid global stagflation and the monetization of U.S. deficits. Looking ahead to 2026, the lack of order continues to favor gold as a safe haven asset, especially as AI narratives evolve [1][2]. Historical Context of Gold Prices - Historical reference points for gold prices include the post-World War II era and the 1970s, where significant economic events led to substantial fluctuations in gold value. For instance, after the 1929 stock market crash, gold prices surged due to a banking crisis, and during the 1970s, gold prices increased dramatically from $35 to $850 per ounce [2][3]. - The first decade of the 21st century saw a new bull market for gold driven by events like the 9/11 attacks and subsequent economic crises. However, after 2011, gold entered a bear market until recent geopolitical tensions reignited interest [3][4]. Current Gold Market Dynamics - The current gold bull market has not shown significant signs of overheating. Since the onset of U.S. deficit monetization in 2008, gold prices have increased by 5.7 times, and by 2.4 times since the 2022 technical default on Russian reserves. This contrasts sharply with the 24-fold increase seen in the 1970s [4]. - The relationship between gold prices and U.S. debt levels remains positive, with projections indicating that U.S. federal debt will rise significantly by 2035, suggesting continued upward pressure on gold prices unless AI technology significantly improves economic efficiency [4][5]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank gold purchases are expected to slow but not end, with a notable increase in gold reserves among major geopolitical players over the past three years. The share of gold in global central bank reserves rose from 15% in Q1 2022 to a projected 54% by Q4 2024, indicating a strong demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty [6][7]. - Despite the increase, global central bank gold holdings remain below historical levels, suggesting further potential for growth in gold purchases [6][7]. Market Demand for Gold - Institutional investors view gold as a crucial hedge due to its low correlation with traditional assets. The recent high inflation environment has diminished the effectiveness of government bonds as a diversification tool, making alternative assets like gold increasingly necessary [8][9]. - The demand for gold from trading funds persists, driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the appeal of a "long AI + long gold" strategy as a dual bet on future economic conditions [9][10].