消息方面，国金证券在《A股策略周报：高切低与简单题》研报中表示，风险事件密集冲击下，全球大 类资产开启"Risk-off"模式在AI产业叙事出现阶段性退潮、就业市场超预期降温等事件密集冲击下，近 期全球大类资产开启"Risk-off"模式，美国国债收益率下行，市场避险情绪严重，直至周五（2026年2月 6日）才有所缓解。而在权益资产内部，全球股票市场出现明显的成长向价值的加速风格切换。导致市 场如此激烈风险再平衡的直接诱因在于近期AI Agent技术的快速进步，引发市场对于AI从赋能者变为掠 夺者的担忧，大型软件股遭遇抛售潮；与此同时，当前美股财报季部分重要科技股业绩信号同样并不乐 观，如AMD、ARM、高通等业绩指引低于市场乐观预期，BIG7大超预期的资本开支投入则加剧了市场 对其业绩能否顺利兑现的质疑等。而风格的另一端，制造业修复的信号正在变得愈发明显，且工业、原 材料、房地产等价值板块同样具备AI较难替代特征，因此在本轮风格切换中获得市场青睐。 中银证券研报称，全年来看，可能会出现两个拐点，一个是一季度末左右的"政策拐点"，一个是四季度 左右的"基本面拐点"。"政策拐点"可能会体现在房地产供需两端的政策 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，从供给侧来看，黄磷作为典型的高耗能产品政策端严控新增 产能，同时基于能耗标准与产能规模加速推进行业节能降碳以及落后小产能出清；从需求侧来看，黄磷 下游主要应用于热法磷酸、草甘膦、三氯化磷等领域，一方面终端六氟磷酸锂为代表的新能源需求高速 增长，草甘膦等传统领域近年来需求相对稳定，另一方面硫磺价格的持续上涨导致湿法磷酸成本抬升， 间接提升热法磷酸性价比的同时有望为黄磷提供涨价空间，建议关注具备较大规模黄磷产能且具备一定 业绩弹性的相关标的。 国金证券主要观点如下： 供给侧：产能区域集中特征较为明显，新增产能受严格约束 根据《热法磷酸与湿法工业磷酸的技术经济分析》，生产单吨湿法工业磷酸需要消耗硫磺1.292吨，以 25年年初为基准，截至2026年2月4日国产硫磺价格为4065元/吨，累计上涨2569元/吨，累计涨幅约为 172%，根据硫磺单耗计算累计抬高湿法工业磷酸单吨生产成本3319元。2025年5月以来热法磷酸价格开 始低于湿法磷酸，且价差呈现扩大趋势，同时热法磷酸相较于湿法纯度较高，因此热法磷酸在硫磺价格 上涨的背景下性价比相对提升。 SMM预计，2026年硫磺供给增 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Convertible Bond Selection + Timing Strategy Weekly Tracking (as of February 2, 2026) - Report Date: February 2, 2025 - Report Source: Financial Products Center, Securities Research Report [1] Core Viewpoints - This week, the three strategies jointly held 6 convertible bonds, namely Lanfan Convertible Bond, Changqi Convertible Bond, Qiaqia Convertible Bond, Fuhan Convertible Bond, Xianle Convertible Bond, and Zheng22 Convertible Bond. The sub - low - price strategy maintained low turnover, and the price center of the increased - holding targets was at a medium - high level. The option strategy also maintained low turnover [2] - The double - low strategy's increased - holding targets this week were mainly affected by the implied volatility, the factor of convertible bond price changes relative to the underlying stock price changes, and the环比 change of the conversion premium rate [6] - From an industry perspective, the model's recommended directions are petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, building decoration, social services, and basic chemicals. The industry mainline is cyclical, mainly contributed by the factor of conversion price change relative to the underlying stock price change and the conversion premium rate factor. There is a marginal increase in social services [7] Strategy - related Summaries Sub - low - price Strategy - Increased - holding targets: ForceNuo Convertible Bond (123221), YinBang Convertible Bond (123252), etc. [4] - Performance: It fell 1.84% in the past week, with an excess return of - 0.96% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Low - price Index. It rose 5.44% this year, with an excess return of 1.65% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 25.15%, the Sharpe ratio was 2.21, the Calmar ratio was 3.96, the maximum drawdown was 6.35%, and the annualized excess return was 4.09% [10][12][26] - Factor: The factor was the average closing price of the past week, with a weight of 100%. The IC mean was - 7.90%, the IC standard deviation was 22.29%, the ICIR was - 35.45%, the frequency of IC>0 was 18.53%, and the p - Value was 0.00% [15] Option Strategy - Increased - holding targets: NaiPuZhuan02 (123265), LianRui Convertible Bond (118064), etc. [6] - Performance: It fell 1.84% in the past week, with an excess return of - 0.96% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Low - price Index. It rose 7.95% this year, with an excess return of 4.08% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 32.53%, the Sharpe ratio was 3.09, the Calmar ratio was 6.96, the maximum drawdown was 4.68%, and the annualized excess return was 10.12% [10][12][26] - Factor: The main factor was the intraday amplitude difference of the convertible bond relative to the underlying stock, with a weight of 100%. The IC mean was - 4.40%, the IC standard deviation was 19.04%, the ICIR was - 23.09%, the frequency of IC>0 was 31.38%, and the p - Value was 0.00% [15] Double - low Enhanced Strategy - Increased - holding targets (TOP10): ShuangLiang Convertible Bond (110095), LiZi Convertible Bond (111014), etc. [25] - Performance: It fell 2.63% in the past week, with an excess return of - 1.17% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Double - low Index. It rose 6.40% this year, with an excess return of 4.12% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 30.83%, the Sharpe ratio was 2.18, the Calmar ratio was 3.97, the maximum drawdown was 7.76%, and the annualized excess return was 14.17% [10][12][26] - Factor: Multiple factors were involved, such as the convertible bond price change relative to the underlying stock price change in the past week, the average closing price in the past week, and the 环比 change of the conversion premium rate in the past week, each with a weight of 20% [15] Industry Rotation Strategy - Recommended industries: Petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, building decoration, social services, and basic chemicals. The top 5 industries and bottom 5 industries are also presented in the report [7][8] - Performance: It fell 1.38% in the past week, with an excess return of 0.10% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Double - low Index. It rose 4.34% this year, with an excess return of 2.10% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 23.38%, the Sharpe ratio was 1.71, the Calmar ratio was 3.52, the maximum drawdown was 6.64%, and the annualized excess return was 7.62% [10][12][26] - Factor: Four factors were used, including the Amihud ratio, the double - low factor's historical quantile, the convertible bond price change relative to the underlying stock price change in the past 2 weeks, and the 环比 change of the conversion premium rate in the past month, each with a weight of 25% [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant decline in Chinese tourists traveling to Japan following travel advisories issued by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the consulate in Japan, with a notable drop in December [1] - Hainan has emerged as a new popular destination for Chinese tourists, with platforms like Qunar and Ctrip reporting over a 45% year-on-year increase in daily flight orders to Hainan during the Spring Festival holiday [1] - Major source cities for Hainan tourism include Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, with approximately 40% of tourists from Shanghai and surrounding areas and about 25% from Beijing [1] Group 2 - Domestic duty-free consumption continues to grow, with expectations for strong performance during the Spring Festival peak season [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for China Duty Free Group has been adjusted to 1.77, 2.79, and 3.34 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, based on various factors including the return of consumption in Japan and the popularity of Hainan tourism [1] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the adjusted EPS forecasts are projected to be 52.16, 33.15, and 27.69 times, referencing the closing price of 97.00 yuan on February 11, 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Truck) announced an investor research meeting scheduled for February 11, 2026, where the company's board secretary and investor relations personnel will participate and address investor inquiries [1] Group 2 - The company is engaging with investors through a scheduled research meeting, indicating a proactive approach to investor relations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the approval of urban investment bonds was characterized by a continuous increase in registration quotas, a slowdown in the approval pace, and a low level of terminated project scale. The overall financing pace at the beginning of the year shifted from loose to tight [5][47]. - The marginal changes in bond market supervision and approval reflect that the current implementation of debt - resolution policies continues the orientation of "strictly controlling increments, resolving existing stocks, and providing long - term empowerment." The issuance of the third batch of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds started in early January, and the Ministry of Finance further clarified that ultra - long - term special treasury bonds would continue to be arranged in 2026. Considering that 2026 is the sprint stage for debt resolution and the 6 - trillion - yuan replacement bond plan is coming to an end, the upward trend of urban investment bond registration quotas is expected to continue [5][47]. - In the long run, the urban investment debt - resolution work has entered a critical period of accelerating and improving efficiency. The debt - resolution paths will be more diverse, and the differentiation of debt - resolution effects among different regions will become more obvious. As the goal of clearing hidden debts approaches, local debt - resolution efforts will continue to increase, the market - oriented clearance process of financing platforms will accelerate, and measures to promote platform transformation through asset restructuring will be more in - depth [6][48]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Registration Situation: Continuous Increase in Urban Investment Registration Quotas - In January, the registration quota of urban investment platforms continued to rise. The registration scale of provincial, municipal, and district - county urban investment all increased to varying degrees, while the registration scale of weak - quality districts and counties declined. The scale in regions such as Zhejiang, Shandong, and Hubei increased significantly month - on - month [2][12]. - The planned issuance scale of urban investment bonds registered on the exchange was 315 billion yuan (previous value: 239.4 billion yuan), and that on DCM was 177.1 billion yuan (previous value: 168.5 billion yuan). The overall registration continued to rise and was higher than the quotas in the same period of the past three years [12]. - The proportion of district - county urban investment bonds in the three - month moving average among all administrative levels continued to decline for three months to 52%. The registration scale of district - county platforms with a budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan was 66.9 billion yuan (previous value: 92.3 billion yuan), and the three - month moving average proportion increased to 37.8% [15][18]. 3.2 Approval Feedback: Slowdown in Urban Investment Bond Approval - In January, the approval pace of DCM and the exchange for urban investment bonds slowed down. The average number of feedbacks from DCM was 2.4 times (previous value: 2.4 times), and the feedback time increased to 41.5 days (previous value: 40.6 days); the average number of feedbacks from the exchange was 4.2 times (previous value: 4.2 times), and the feedback time increased to 77.8 days (previous value: 68.9 days) [25]. - The feedback pace of public urban investment corporate bonds in prefecture - level cities accelerated significantly, while that of private urban investment corporate bonds in prefecture - level and district - county levels slowed down [30]. - The approval feedback days in Sichuan, Fujian, Hubei and other regions were significantly extended. The approval pace in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan and other regions accelerated significantly, while Shandong and Henan continued the trend of a slowdown in the approval speed [32]. - The approval pace of weak - quality district - county platform bonds continued to slow down. The feedback days of district - county platforms with a general budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan were 67.2 days (previous value: 65.2 days), lower than the average of last year [35]. 3.3 Terminated Issuance: Low - Level Maintenance of Terminated Project Scale - In January, the scale of terminated projects remained at a low level. The planned issuance scale of terminated urban investment bonds increased from 500 million yuan to 600 million yuan, and the number of terminated projects was the same as last month, both being 1. The proportion of the terminated scale of district - county urban investment bonds in the three - month moving average increased to 74% [37]. - The terminated projects of urban investment platforms mainly occurred in Hubei, mainly in district - county platforms [42]. 3.4 Research Conclusions and Suggestions - The approval of urban investment bonds in January showed the characteristics of a continuous increase in registration quotas, a slowdown in the approval pace, and a low - level maintenance of terminated project scale. The overall financing pace at the beginning of the year shifted from loose to tight [5][47]. - The marginal changes in bond market supervision and approval reflect the implementation of the current debt - resolution policy. Considering the debt - resolution situation in 2026, the upward trend of urban investment bond registration quotas is expected to continue [5][47]. - In the long run, the urban investment debt - resolution work has entered a critical period, with more diverse debt - resolution paths and more obvious differentiation in debt - resolution effects among regions. Local debt - resolution efforts will increase, and platform transformation will be promoted more deeply [6][48].

- The report discusses the performance of the four major stock index futures contracts (IF, IC, IM, IH) over the past week, highlighting that IH had the highest increase of 0.90%, while IC experienced the largest decline of -0.08%[3][11] - The average trading volume of the contracts showed mixed performance, with IC increasing the most by 2.72%, and IH decreasing the most by -16.58%[3][11] - The average open interest of all four contracts declined, with IF showing the largest decrease of -11.61%, and IM the smallest decrease of -0.69%[3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -2.13%, -4.76%, -8.13%, and -0.44%, respectively, as of last Friday's close[3][11] - The inter-month spread rates for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts were at the 3.10%, 0.60%, 11.80%, and 31.30% percentiles of their historical distributions since 2019, with IM and IH at normal levels and IF and IC at relatively low levels[4][12] - Dividend forecasts for the next year indicate that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, SSE 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index will impact index points by 81.23, 90.90, 72.77, and 68.78, respectively[4][12] - The report provides a formula for calculating forward and reverse arbitrage returns in index futures trading, considering factors such as transaction costs, margin ratios, and risk-free rates[46] - The dividend estimation method involves using historical dividend patterns and EPS data to predict future dividend points, with specific formulas provided for calculating the impact on index points[48][52]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intensifying competition among banks for deposits ahead of the Spring Festival, highlighting strategies employed by both small and large banks to attract customers through interest rate adjustments and promotional incentives [3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Competition - Small banks are raising interest rates on specific deposit products, with some rural commercial banks offering three-year deposit rates close to 2% [3][5]. - Over 10 small banks have increased deposit rates since the beginning of 2026, particularly targeting specific products and higher minimum deposit amounts [5]. - Large banks are not directly raising rates but are enhancing their deposit acquisition efforts through rewards and incentives, such as cash rebates and points for new customers [6]. Group 2: Expectations on Deposit Flows - The competition for deposits reflects banks' anticipation of a significant amount of term deposits maturing in 2026, with expectations that most of these funds will remain within the banking system [4][8]. - Estimates suggest that approximately 75 trillion yuan of household term deposits will mature in 2026, with 67 trillion yuan being one year or longer [8]. - Despite concerns about potential "deposit migration" to the stock market, industry insiders believe that the majority of maturing funds will continue to circulate within the banking system [8][9]. Group 3: Trends in Risk Appetite - The increase in maturing deposits is not particularly pronounced, with annual growth rates of 4 trillion to 7 trillion yuan observed since 2022 [9]. - Current low-risk appetite among residents is evident, as data shows a negative correlation between income confidence and savings willingness [9]. - Historical trends indicate that periods of declining savings willingness often coincide with rising income expectations [9]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Post-Maturity - Funds from maturing deposits are expected to flow primarily into low-risk assets, such as bank wealth management products and money market funds [11][13]. - Historical data from Japan indicates that during similar economic conditions, residents increased their holdings in cash, deposits, and insurance while reducing investments in stocks and high-risk assets [10][12]. - The preference for low-risk investments is expected to continue, with a significant portion of maturing deposits likely being allocated to wealth management products [13][14].

- The AI-based global asset allocation model suggests a weight of 74.76% for the government bond index, 24.97% for SHFE gold, and 0.27% for the Hang Seng Index for February[5][44] - The model's performance in January showed a monthly return of -0.25%, compared to the benchmark strategy's return of 0.14%[5][44] - Historical performance from January 2021 to January 2026 indicates an annualized return of 7.22%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.07, and a maximum drawdown of 6.66%[46] - The stock-bond allocation model, based on macro timing and risk budgeting, suggests stock weights of 10.19%, 16.91%, and 70.00% for conservative, balanced, and aggressive profiles, respectively, for February[6][50] - The model's performance in January showed monthly returns of 3.65%, 1.22%, and 0.39% for aggressive, balanced, and conservative profiles, respectively[6][50] - Historical performance from January 2005 to January 2026 indicates annualized returns of 20.15%, 10.85%, and 5.87% for aggressive, balanced, and conservative profiles, respectively[51][57] - The dividend timing model recommends a 100% position in the CSI Dividend Index for February[7][58] - The model's performance shows an annualized return of 15.85%, an annualized volatility of 17.26%, a maximum drawdown of -21.22%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.90[7][59] - The model's recent one-month return is 0.00%, compared to the CSI Dividend Total Return Index's return of 3.76%[7][59]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities forecasts that the net profit attributable to the parent company of China Ship Leasing (03877) will be HKD 2.16 billion, HKD 2.30 billion, and HKD 2.48 billion for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 6%, and 8% respectively. The lower profit growth in 2025 is attributed to the completion of certain financing leasing and loan projects, leading to a decline in related income, as well as a tax expense of HKD 140 million due to the retrospective application of the Basel II framework starting in 2025. The company demonstrates counter-cyclical investment capability, leading operational capacity, low funding costs, and a high dividend payout ratio (approximately 40%), with a projected dividend yield of about 7% at the current price. A target price of HKD 2.64 is set based on a 1x PB for 2026, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Diverse Business Structure - As of the first half of 2025, the company's revenue breakdown from operating leasing, financing leasing, loan borrowing, and ship brokerage is 60%, 27%, 12%, and 1% respectively. The company primarily focuses on long-term leasing, providing revenue growth certainty. The net asset value of the company's ship assets and the scale of receivables from leasing are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% from 2020 to 2024. The estimated operating leasing yield and financing leasing yield for 2024 are 14.4% and 7.8% respectively. In addition to long-term leases, the company utilizes its industry expertise to deploy some self-operated and joint venture ships in the spot and short-term market, contributing approximately 30% to profits from 2021 to 2024 [1]. Group 2: Leading Operational Capability - The company's fleet is characterized by diversity, high value, and youth, with a fleet size of 143 vessels as of the first half of 2025. According to Clarkson data, as of September 2025, the company's ship asset value ranks 7th among Chinese leasing companies and 2nd among non-bank leasing companies. The company is one of only four Chinese shipping leasing companies covering all ship types. The company is also leading in green transformation, with 91% of its vessels being energy-efficient as of September 2025, ranking 2nd among the top ten leasing companies in terms of vessel quantity. The average age of the fleet is 4.13 years, lower than comparable peers, and new ships generally comply with environmental policies, resulting in lower maintenance costs and strong appeal to quality customers [2]. Group 3: Low Funding Costs - The company holds a high credit rating, with Fitch and S&P both rating it A- as of the first half of 2025. The average funding cost is 3.1%, which is below the industry average. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates three times in 2025, and the majority of the company's liabilities denominated in USD, the average funding cost is anticipated to decline further [3].