来源：中国能源网 国金证券近日发布石油化工行业研究：基本面依然供过于求，前期支撑原油价格的利好寒潮以及哈萨克 斯坦产量减少的供应下降已经开始修复。同时俄乌达成停火一周协议，泽连斯基确认停止袭击俄罗斯能 源设施，关注俄乌近一步进展。地缘问题仍是市场交易核心，伊朗问题是主要焦点。 以下为研究报告摘要： 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。(国金证券 孙羲昱,陈浩越) 炼油：下周春运陆续开启，跨城出行增加，汽油需求增加，户外基建陆续停工，用油单位开工率进一步 下滑，柴油需求持续处于低位，"汽强柴弱"格局。本周国内主营炼厂平均开工负荷为80.02%，较上周上 涨1.24个百分点。山东地炼常减压装置平均开工负荷为53.6%，较上周持平。山东地炼汽油库存57.55万 吨，环比下跌3.75%；山东地炼柴油库存86.56万吨，环比下跌4.15%。本周期山东地炼平均炼油毛利为 165.98元/吨，较上周期下跌88.39元/吨。本周期主营炼厂平均炼油毛利为659.83元/吨，较上周期下跌 101.65元/吨。零批价差方面，周内汽油零批价差1314元/吨，前值1224元/吨，周内上涨90元/吨，涨幅 7. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the domestic steel industry is experiencing a mixed trend in raw material prices, with export policies driving external prices higher while domestic prices remain under pressure [1][2] - Steel mills are currently in a raw material stocking phase, with iron ore imports increasing but steel inventory remaining low, suggesting a cautious approach to restocking due to weak price differentials and expectations of low post-holiday production [2][3] - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, indicating that previous raw material price increases may have started to impact financial statements [1][2] Group 2 - The average price of hot-rolled coils in major markets is reported at 3355 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 1 CNY/ton from the previous week, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils has decreased by 2.82 million tons week-on-week [3] - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade prices for first-grade coke at 1470 CNY/ton and second-grade coke at 1570 CNY/ton, while inventory levels at major ports have decreased [4] - The price index for domestic iron concentrate shows mixed results, with the price for 66% concentrate at 978 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.72% increase, while overall iron ore inventory at ports continues to rise [5]

化工主题ETF正在成为资金流入的重要方向。今年以来，化工主题ETF净流入资金逾260亿元。随着资 金持续涌入，化工主题ETF总规模超过500亿元。与此同时，多只化工主题ETF份额创上市以来新高。 化工主题ETF规模大增 进入2026年，化工主题ETF持续吸引资金流入。据Choice测算，截至1月29日，今年以来化工主题ETF净 流入261.89亿元。其中，鹏华化工ETF净流入144.2亿元，富国化工50 ETF为57.02亿元，华宝化工ETF为 34.52亿元，天弘化工ETF为14.24亿元。 过去一年，化工主题ETF总规模大增20多倍。具体来看，截至2025年1月1日，共有5只化工主题ETF上 市交易，规模合计为21.59亿元。截至2026年1月29日，上市的化工主题ETF数量增至7只，规模增至 539.57亿元。 从诺安安鑫混合基金前十大重仓股来看，截至2025年底，其名单中包括云天化、亚钾国际、兴发集团、 华鲁恒升等化工股。 "针对材料板块，未来将左侧布局供需改善、盈利修复的品种。过去三年由于产能扩张，上游环节的价 格和盈利大幅收缩，个股估值也回落到较低水平。随着供给端的产能投放结束，叠加'反内卷'政策 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals and Market Trends - The precious metals sector is showing increasing speculative attributes, warranting caution [2] - The current market is experiencing a style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks and from themes to quality [2] - The overall trend indicates a potential for profit margin recovery in cyclical sectors, driven by a shift in Chinese policy from expansion to quality improvement [2] Group 2: AI and Technology Opportunities - There is a focus on AI applications and energy storage as key growth areas, with expectations for recovery in lithium battery materials and storage sectors [3] - The AI industry remains a long-term focus, with significant policy support and market optimism surrounding its applications [5] - The technology theme, including AI applications and structural recovery opportunities, is highlighted as a key area for investment [7] Group 3: Spring Market Dynamics - The spring market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by ample liquidity and positive domestic fundamentals [5] - High elasticity growth themes may still perform well after a phase of profit-taking, with potential for further gains in February [4] - Sector rotation is anticipated to be a dominant theme leading up to the Spring Festival, with a focus on structural opportunities [9] Group 4: Commodity Recommendations - A recommendation has been made to adjust the order of investment focus to include crude oil, copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium, reflecting a shift towards industrial pricing [8] - The emphasis on physical assets is expected to strengthen, with a focus on sectors like chemicals and consumer goods benefiting from domestic recovery [8] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains cautious but optimistic, with expectations for continued support from domestic policies and liquidity [5][6] - The potential for structural recovery in manufacturing and resource sectors is noted, with clear paths for profit recovery [9] - The upcoming credit and inflation data in January may provide additional positive signals for the market [4]

中国经济网北京1月31日讯 北京证券交易所上市委员会2026年第10次审议会议于2026年1月30日上 午召开，审议结果显示，鹤壁海昌智能科技股份有限公司（以下简称"海昌智能"）符合发行条件、上市 条件和信息披露要求。这是2026年过会的第14家企业（其中，上交所和深交所一共过会5家，北交所过 会9家）。 海昌智能的保荐机构为国金证券股份有限公司，签字保荐代表人为周刘桥、解明。这是国金证券今 年保荐成功的第2单IPO项目。2026年1月5日，国金证券保荐的舟山晨光电机股份有限公司过会。 无。 审议会议提出问询的主要问题： 1.关于业绩增长可持续性。请发行人：（1）结合行业协会等机构发布的公开市场数据，说明国内 汽车销售量及新能源汽车渗透率增速放缓对发行人经营业绩的影响；（2）结合2025年境外业务实际开 展及国际市场竞争情况，说明开拓境外市场的规划及实施情况，进一步论证业绩增长可持续性。请保荐 机构及申报会计师核查并发表明确意见。 2.关于关联交易。请发行人说明关联关系与关联交易披露的真实准确完整性，防范利益冲突或利益 输送风险的具体措施及有效性。请保荐机构及发行人律师核查并发表明确意见。 海昌智能是一家主要 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Association updated the classification list of sponsoring representatives, with 16 individuals categorized as D-class, indicating a temporary suspension of their signing qualifications [2][5] - Compared to the D-class list updated in June 2025, four representatives were removed, while three new representatives were added from First Capital Securities, Guolian Minsheng Securities, and Dongwu Securities [2][5] - The D-class list includes representatives who have received administrative penalties from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) or have been deemed unsuitable for related business by self-regulatory organizations [2][9] Group 2 - Fan Benyuan from First Capital Securities was penalized for failing to detect misuse of approximately 1.7 billion yuan in fundraising during the Hongda Xingye convertible bond project, resulting in a total penalty of 16.98 million yuan [5] - Jin Yaping from Guolian Minsheng Securities was fined over 10 million yuan for violations during his 17 years of service, including 16 years of illegal stock trading [6] - Ma Yuanyuan from Donghai Securities faced a record penalty of 60 million yuan for failing to identify financial fraud and undisclosed related transactions during a major asset restructuring project [8] Group 3 - The updated D-class list aims to enhance the awareness of responsibilities and risks among sponsoring representatives, encouraging them to adhere to legal and ethical standards [9] - The introduction of the D-class category follows revisions to the sponsorship business rules, which now include a public disclosure mechanism for negative evaluations of sponsoring representatives [8][9]

Core Insights - The securities industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with a reduction in workforce and a shift towards a more professional and service-oriented model [3][10]. Workforce Changes - By the end of 2025, the total number of employees in the securities industry is projected to decrease by 5,897, bringing the total to 320,000, marking three consecutive years of decline since 2023 [13]. - The number of employees in general securities business and securities brokers has significantly decreased, with both categories losing over 5,000 employees [10]. - Conversely, the number of analysts increased by 336, and investment advisors saw a net increase of 5,754, indicating a shift towards specialized roles [10][12]. Analyst Growth - The analyst workforce has seen a notable increase, surpassing 6,000 by 2025, doubling from around 3,000 before 2022 [12]. - Despite pressures in other business lines, competition for research talent among brokerages has intensified, with several prominent analysts switching firms [12]. - The top ten firms with the largest increases in analyst numbers include Guotai Junan Securities, CITIC Securities, and Founder Securities, with Guotai Junan adding 43 analysts [14]. Decline in Sponsoring Representatives - The number of sponsoring representatives has decreased for the first time in eight years, totaling 8,526 by the end of 2025, down by 180 from the previous year [15]. - This decline is attributed to a slowdown in equity financing and stricter regulatory requirements, leading to a "project drought" in the market [15].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, the A-share market saw a total of 9 new listed companies, a decrease of 25% compared to the same period last year, while the net fundraising amount increased by 33.79% to 8.425 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: IPO Performance - A total of 9 new companies were listed in January 2026, with 3 on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, 1 on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and 5 on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1]. - The net fundraising amount for these new listings was 8.425 billion yuan, up from 6.297 billion yuan in the same month last year [1]. Group 2: Underwriter Performance - Eight underwriting institutions handled the IPOs of the 9 new listed companies in January 2026, with CICC ranking first with 2 deals [2]. - Seven other securities firms, including Shenwan Hongyuan, Guotou Securities, Dongwu Securities, Dongxing Securities, CITIC Securities, Guojin Securities, and Guotai Junan, each managed 1 deal [2][3]. Group 3: Law Firm Performance - Six law firms provided legal services for the IPOs, with Shanghai Jintiancheng, Beijing Zhonglun, and Beijing Kangda each handling 2 cases, ranking them jointly first [5]. - Beijing Jindu, Guohao (Shanghai), and Beijing Deheng each managed 1 case [5][6]. Group 4: Accounting Firm Performance - Six accounting firms provided auditing services for the new listings, with Rongcheng leading with 3 cases [7]. - Zhonghui ranked second with 2 cases, while Xinyong Zhonghe, Lixin, Tianjian, and Zhongxinghua each handled 1 case [7][8].

截至午间收盘，中证云计算与大数据主题指数下跌1.6%，中证芯片产业指数上涨0.3%，中证半导体材料设备主题指数下跌0.6%，半导体设备ETF易方达 （159558）半日净申购达2900万份。 国金证券认为，半导体设备是半导体产业链的基石，存储扩产与自主可控共振，国产化空间广阔。存储芯片架构从2D向3D深层次变革，随着3D DRAM技术 引入以及NAND堆叠层数向5xx层及以上演进，制造工艺中对高深宽比刻蚀及先进薄膜沉积的要求呈指数级提升，相关设备厂商将深度受益于工艺复杂度提 升带来的红利。 0.3% 半导体设备ETF易方达 跟踪中证半导体材料设备主题指数 该指数由40只业务涉及半 导体材料和半导体设备的公 司股票组成,聚焦未来计算 的硬件基础环节。 截至午间收盘 该指数涨跌 -0.6% 同标的指数中规模居第一 联际十九心 广州指数 该指数由50只业务涉及芯 片设计、制造、封装与测 试以及半导体材料、半导 体生产设备等公司股票组 成,聚焦未来计算的核心 硬件环节。 截至午间收盘 该指数涨跌 每日经济新闻 低费率(0.15%+0. 05%费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global LNG market is expected to transition from a tight balance in 2025 to a loose supply situation by 2026, driven by a "super expansion cycle" in LNG production and a structural shift in supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - From 2020 to 2024, the global natural gas industry experienced a complete cycle of demand collapse and low prices, followed by supply shocks and price increases, leading to a structural reshaping of global trade [1]. - The Netherlands TTF spot price has shown extreme volatility, and the EU's LNG import share has fluctuated, with the U.S. becoming the largest LNG exporter and China the largest importer [1]. - By 2025, the global natural gas market is projected to be in a structurally tight balance, with demand growth slowing to 0.9% and supply relying on new North American LNG projects [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The year 2026 marks a critical turning point for the global LNG "super expansion cycle," with an expected cumulative addition of approximately 202 million tons of LNG capacity from 2026 to 2030, a 40% increase from 2025 [2]. - The expansion of LNG capacity will be concentrated in North America and the Middle East, leading to a shift from a multi-polar supply structure to a "U.S.-Qatar dual-core" model [2]. - The share of pipeline gas is expected to decline due to geopolitical factors, enhancing LNG's pricing power in the global market [2]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - From 2025 to 2030, the global natural gas demand is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.56%, with significant regional differentiation [2]. - Asia-Pacific is expected to see the fastest demand growth, with China as the core growth engine, while European demand is anticipated to contract due to renewable energy substitution and decarbonization policies [2]. Group 4: Price Trends - The global LNG market is expected to shift from a supply-constrained pricing system to one influenced by cost constraints and demand elasticity, with prices aligning more closely with U.S. and Qatari marginal supply costs [3]. - The Henry Hub price is projected to rise significantly by 2027, driven by LNG exports and electricity demand, marking the beginning of a new price upcycle in the U.S. market [4]. - The long-term cost of new natural gas wells in the U.S. is expected to stabilize between $3 and $3.5 per MMBtu, providing support for the Henry Hub price floor [4].