Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. has successfully completed the issuance of its second short-term financing bond for the year 2026 on February 6, 2026 [1][2] - The company assures that the announcement contains no false records, misleading statements, or significant omissions, and that the board of directors is responsible for the authenticity, accuracy, and completeness of the content [1] - Relevant documents regarding the bond issuance have been published on the China Money website and the Shanghai Clearing House website [1]

Core Viewpoint - AI has become an indispensable part of global trade, with China being the largest exporter of AI products and the U.S. leading in AI investment, which directly impacts the export dynamics of China [1][2][23]. Group 1: AI Investment and Economic Impact - AI investment has significantly contributed to the U.S. economy, boosting the actual GDP growth rate by 0.8 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2025, making it a crucial growth engine [4]. - By mid-2025, AI investment in the U.S. is projected to account for 5% of GDP, surpassing the peak levels seen during the "dot-com bubble" in 2000 [4]. - Global AI spending is estimated to reach $1.8 trillion in 2025 and expand to $2.5 trillion by 2026, with the IMF forecasting a global economic growth rate of 3.3% in 2026 due to the AI investment boom [4]. Group 2: AI Trade Growth - AI-related trade is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 21.7% in the second quarter of 2025, significantly outpacing the 4.2% growth of non-AI related trade [6]. - AI-related products are expected to constitute 15% of global trade by 2025, contributing over 40% to the overall growth of global merchandise trade [6]. - The WTO estimates that by 2040, global trade volume will increase by 34%-37% compared to 2025, with global GDP rising by 12%-13% due to the diffusion of AI technology and related trade [6]. Group 3: AI Product Categories and Trade Dynamics - The AI industry chain consists of five layers: hardware, cloud computing, data, models, and applications, with trade primarily focused on the hardware layer [9]. - The narrow definition of AI-related trade encompasses 104 categories, while a broader definition includes 138 categories, covering raw materials, intermediate goods, and equipment [9]. - In 2024, the narrow AI product trade is projected to reach $3.3 trillion, accounting for 13.6% of global trade, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [10]. Group 4: Regional Trade Insights - Major exporters of AI-related products include mainland China, the EU, ASEAN, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the U.S., collectively accounting for 91% of global AI trade [14]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, mainland China's AI-related product exports totaled $840.7 billion, representing 22% of its total exports, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [18]. - The export growth of AI-related products in regions like Taiwan and Hong Kong has significantly outpaced other goods, indicating the dominant role of AI trade in regional export performance [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Challenges - The U.S. has increased tariffs on AI-related imports from China to 40%, which may lead to a decline in direct trade, pushing some exports through intermediaries like Hong Kong and ASEAN [21]. - The sustainability of U.S. AI investment is critical, as historical trends show that declines in investment can lead to significant drops in GDP growth, affecting both AI and non-AI related trade [26].

Core Viewpoints - The contradiction between short-term profits and long-term value is intensifying in overseas markets, with a focus on strategic safety and innovation driven by AI [2] - External shocks have limited impact on the fundamentals of the Chinese market, suggesting a continuation of the spring market rally post-Spring Festival [4] - A new upward cycle is anticipated in the A-share market, driven by favorable timing and conditions [5] Group 1: Market Trends and Conditions - Recent adjustments in the A-share market are primarily driven by internal factors, with external disturbances not significantly impacting the fundamentals [4] - The upcoming period is expected to see a strong seasonal effect, particularly around the Spring Festival, with historical data indicating high probabilities of market gains [5] - The market is currently experiencing a "Risk-off" mode, with a shift towards simpler investment themes as the AI industry cycle matures [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Recommendations include maintaining a focus on "resources + traditional manufacturing" while increasing allocations to consumer and real estate sectors [3] - Key sectors to watch include AI computing, chemicals, and power equipment, with a focus on high-growth technology and cyclical recovery [4][7] - Emphasis on high-dividend stocks is expected to gain traction as the market transitions from high-volatility trading to more stable, predictable investments [9] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware and semiconductor industries, is expected to recover following recent adjustments [7][8] - High-quality real estate developers and related industries are recommended for investment, given the anticipated recovery in property sales during the Spring Festival [11] - The focus on cyclical recovery in sectors such as chemicals and construction materials is advised, alongside monitoring for potential rebounds in consumer spending [12]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the weakening of the post-World War II rules-based international order, with countries prioritizing strategic autonomy and security, leading to increased resilience investments in energy, food, and critical minerals [4][30] - The concept of "geopolitical security premium" is highlighted as a significant pricing factor for commodities in 2026, driven by national security strategies and the need for strategic reserves [5][30] - Historical insights from the Cold War indicate that national security-driven demand can surpass long industrial cycles, significantly impacting metal prices [6][30] Group 2 - The article discusses the concentration of supply and the dependency on critical minerals, with various countries publishing lists of key minerals to enhance supply chain security [12][14] - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for many critical minerals, with 12 out of 50 minerals completely dependent on net imports, highlighting vulnerabilities in supply chains [14] - The geopolitical landscape shows that resource-rich countries, like the Democratic Republic of Congo for cobalt, are gaining leverage through export controls, reminiscent of Cold War strategies [21][30] Group 3 - Demand for critical minerals such as aluminum, graphite, and cobalt is essential for defense industries, with specific applications in weaponry and aerospace [22][23] - The article outlines the strategic importance of various metals, including titanium and tungsten, in military applications, emphasizing their role in national defense [23][30] - The current global context of geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities is expected to elevate the "security premium" on commodities, influencing market dynamics [30]

Core Viewpoint - The global AI industry is entering a second phase, leading to a shift in the performance of the technology chain, making it complex to determine which companies will succeed [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of recovery in overseas manufacturing is strengthening, indicating a shift in the core contradictions of AI investment towards infrastructure represented by energy [1] - A quiet revaluation of global physical assets that cannot be disrupted by AI is beginning, with the return of funds from export enterprises signaling a resonance between domestic and external demand [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The revaluation logic of physical assets is shifting from liquidity and dollar credit to low inventory and stabilizing demand, focusing on commodities such as crude oil, oil transportation, copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, and rare earths [1] - The Chinese equipment export chain, which has a global comparative advantage and confirmed cyclical bottom, includes sectors like power grid equipment, energy storage, engineering machinery, and wafer manufacturing [1] - Domestic manufacturing sectors that are at the bottom of the cycle include petrochemicals, dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, and titanium dioxide [1] - The consumption recovery channel is driven by the return of funds, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel entry, focusing on sectors like aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverages [1] - Non-bank financials are expected to benefit from the expansion of capital markets and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns [1]

北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 2025 北交所券商执业全景：特色券商优势巩固，头部券商逐渐跃居前列 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 专题：2025 年格局重塑：头部券商成为执业主力军，特色券商优势巩固 2026 年 1 月 30 日北京证券交易所、全国股转公司根据对证券公司 2025 年的执 业质量情况进行了评价。2025 年度，115 家证券公司中，14 家证券公司子公司 纳入其母公司合并评价，由高到低分别被评为一、二、三、四档，其中，一档占 比 19.80%；二档占比 39.60%；三档占比 19.80%；四档占比 20.79%。从一档券 商变化来看，北交所市场券商执业格局"大洗牌"，头部券商逐渐跃居前列。2025 年排名前十名分别为国泰海通、华泰证券、招商证券、申万宏源、中信证券、国 金证券、东吴证券、开源证券、中信建投、平安证券，其中华泰证券、中信证券、 平安证券分别由 2024 年的第二档跃升为第一档。从专业质量总分变化来看，头 部券商进步明显。2025 年排名前五名分别为 ...

帮我 AI 贸易已经成为了全球贸易中不可忽视的重要部分。中国作为全球最大的 AI 商品出口国，美国作为全球 AI 投 资扩张的领头羊，美国 AI 投资能否维持高位决定了今年中国出口高景气度能否延续。同时，BIS 研究显示，在 此前几次投资热潮退坡时（如 90 年代互联网泡沫、2010 年前后的页岩投资），美国 GDP 增速降幅均超过 1 个百 分点，如果美国 AI 泡沫破裂，负面溢出效应或导致美国经济大幅回落进而拖累全球经济和一般贸易。 风险提示 本文对 AI 贸易商品的数据部分基于估算数据，估算方法或存在一定偏差。 AI 投资不确定性较高，AI 投资带来的 AI 贸易不确定性也在提升，关注 AI 投资变化对贸易的影响。 全球 AI 贸易政策正在发生较大变化，美国对等关税等对 AI 贸易的影响也还在延续，关注政策变化对 AI 贸易的影响。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济报告 AI 投资已成为全球经济不可忽视的部分。2025 年前三季度，广义 AI 投资拉动美国实际 GDP 同比增速 0.8 个百 分点，成为美国经济增长的重要引擎。BIS 数据显示，从 2022 年开始 AI 投资在美 ...

国金证券股份有限公司2026年度第二期短期融资券已于2026年2月 6日发行完毕，相关发行情况如下： | 债券名称 | | | | 国金证券股份有限公司 | | 2026 | 年度 | | | 第二期短期融资券 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券简称 | 26 | 国金证券 | CP002 | 债券流通代码 | 072610036 | | | | | | | | | 发行日 | 2026 | 年 2 月 | 日 | 起息日 | | | 6 日 | 2 月 | 5 | 2026 | | 年 | | 兑付日 | 2026 | 年 9 月 | 4 日 | 期限 | 210 天 | | | | | | | | | 计划发行总额 | 10 | 亿元人民币 | | 实际发行总额 | 10 | | | | | | 亿元人民币 | | | 票面利率 | 1.69% | | | 发行价格 | 100 | | 元/百元面值 | | | | | | 本期发行短期融资券的相关文件已在以下网 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中国证券业协会数据显示，证券业从业人数连续3年下滑，从2022年末35.61万人，减少至2025年末32.78 万人，近3万人离场。从结构来看，"一般证券业务"人员连续两年减少超过2万人。证券经纪人数量更是 每年下滑，8年间（2018年至2025年）累计减少逾6万人。 | 国金证券人数变化 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分类 | 2024/12/31 | 2025/12/31 人数变化 | | | 从业人员数 | 4809 | 5240 | 431 | | 一般证券业务 | 3402 | 3641 | 239 | | 证券经纪人 | 74 | 56 | -18 | | 分析师 | 122 | 165 | 43 | | 投资顾问 | 921 | 1082 | 161 | | 保荐代表人 | 290 | 296 | 6 | | 数据来源:choice | | | | 2025年最为津津乐道的就是国金证券的分析师变动，2025年国金证券分析师人数从122人增加到165人， 组建起30余个研究团队，实现 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the long-term profitability trends in the technology sector, particularly focusing on the high R&D investments leading to a significant proportion of loss-making stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF [1] - The performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF (588360) is linked to the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index (931643), which includes 50 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of technology innovation-related listed companies [1] - The article notes that while the pre-earnings rate for electronics and communications remains stable for 2024, there is an improvement in the computer and media sectors, indicating a certain expansion in the technology industry cycle [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the growth momentum in the AI industry is not limited to the technology sector but is also spreading to the midstream manufacturing segment [1] - The ETF's daily price fluctuation limit is set at 20%, and it covers various high-tech fields such as information technology, healthcare, and renewable energy, showcasing significant innovation growth characteristics [1] - The importance of order and business commercialization progress is highlighted as being more critical than profitability for certain stocks within the sector [1]