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化工板块重估机会受机构看好,关注指数回调后化工行业ETF易方达(516570)布局机会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-27 10:44
截至收盘,中证石化产业指数下跌0.7%,中证稀土产业指数下跌1.4%。 国金证券认为,化工板块或将重估,一是供给端的政策指引可能使得供给端的天花板更加明晰,产业地位方面,当前中国化工产业地位和经营情况严重错 配,后续修复概率较高;二是市场可能低估了流动性对于板块的影响,化工是少有的在周期底部+基本面趋势向上+估值具备性价比的大板块,在这大背景 下,流动性对板块涨幅影响可能会超预期。 | 今日该指数涨跌 | 该指数市净率 | i | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 发 | | -0. 7% | 1.7倍 | | 每日经济新闻 ...
国金证券:茶饮市场扩容持续 供应链铸就头部壁垒
智通财经网· 2026-01-27 09:19
智通财经APP获悉,国金证券发布研报称,现制饮品场景拓宽,叠加对软饮结构性替代,带动消费频次 提升。当前茶饮行业门店数增速放缓,品牌数量呈现下降趋势,行业集中度提升,步入成长期中后段。 头部品牌凭借供应链与产品优势,门店数量稳健增长,店效逐步修复;中小品牌则因供应链优势不足, 在成本和价格压力下逐步出清。该行认为,具备供应链规模化、能够精准快速捕捉用户需求的产品优 势、品牌优势的头部连锁品牌,在拓店和单店运营中将占据明显优势。 国金证券主要观点如下: 规模化采购和高效仓配筑就竞争壁垒 在采购端,头部品牌通过规模化采购建立成本优势和抗风险能力;并通过深度渗透到上游,保障产品差 异化。在仓配端,头部品牌通过冷链覆盖与高频配送时效,保障原材料新鲜度;同时通过高密度的仓配 网络,实现成本优势。 聚焦供应链驱动的头部连锁品牌 现制饮品场景拓宽,叠加对软饮结构性替代,带动消费频次提升。按照"市场规模=目标人群数量×人均 年消费频次×平均杯单价"测算我国现制饮品市场规模,伴随消费频次持续提升,我国现制饮品市场规 模有望持续增长。根据中商产业研究院数据,2023年我国人均现制饮品消费频次22杯,2018-2023年 CAGR ...
国金资管:以专业体系与全资产供给 锻造多资产配置核心竞争力
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2026-01-27 07:51
中证报中证网讯(记者 林倩)在全球宏观经济格局重塑、市场波动加剧的背景下,多元资产配置正成 为帮助投资者穿越周期、获取稳健回报的重要路径之一。国金证券资产管理有限公司相关负责人日前接 受中国证券报记者采访时表示,多资产投资作为践行资产配置理念、应对市场不确定性的重要方式,是 衡量一家资管机构综合实力的重要维度,近年来公司凭借前瞻性的布局与体系化的专业能力,在多资产 投资领域建立了独特的竞争优势。 打造科学配置能力 国金资管在多资产领域的探索起步较早。据介绍,2013年,公司便前瞻性地布局多资产管理相关业务, 着手推进股债混合及"固收+"策略。彼时,国内多资产相关产品尚处萌芽阶段,这一布局为其后续发展 奠定了先发优势。 "多资产配置并非资产的简单堆砌,其核心在于通过深入理解各类资产的风险收益特征及彼此间的相关 性,使其在组合中扮演不同的角色,实现风险的分散。"国金资管上述相关负责人补充道。 建立多资产产品线 面对多资产投资复杂程度大幅提升,国金资管着力打造体系化的"平台型"投研能力,公司通过专业化分 工,设立了覆盖宏观配置、行业研究、信用评估、量化分析的多个研究小组,为投资决策提供深度支 持。 国金资管上述相关 ...
国金证券:“存款搬家”的几个事实
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-27 06:22
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 雪涛宏观笔记 理财、货基、保险、基金,谁能够在"存款搬家"中分得一杯羹? 事实二:"存款搬家"从2024年开始成为话题,对应的是居民超额配置存款意愿下降。 随着存款利率下行,从2024年开始,居民配置存款的意愿回落。2024年、2025年居民新增定期存款均在 12万亿左右。按照估算,居民新增存款占新增金融资产的比重在68%左右,显著低于2022、2023年的 89%、79%。这意味着2021年以来的居民超额存款行为已经接近尾声。 文:国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 2026年,在存款利率大幅下行的背景下,随着此前高息的三、五年期定期存款到期,居民部门"存款搬 家"再度成为市场的关注焦点。在分析"存款搬家"时,我们需要先说清楚以下几点事实。 事实一:当前市场讨论的"存款搬家"话题,恰好对应的是三年前市场讨论的"超额储蓄"问题。 当时受地产下行、消费意愿回落等因素影响,居民部门开始大幅增配定期存款。2022年新增住户存款 17.8万亿,其中定期存款13.7万亿。2023年虽然新增住户存款下滑至16.6万亿,但定期存款新增16万 亿,占新增住户 ...
国金证券:二手房成交趋于稳定
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-01-27 00:28
每经AI快讯,1月27日,国金证券研报表示,核心城市新房和二手房住宅销售面积已于2025年企稳,二 手房成交的改善主要源于和新房的需求"跷跷板"效应。往前看,随着"金三银四"的来临,新房和二手房 的成交可能再度扭转,优质供给的入市将带动新房成交放量,二手房成交则趋于稳定。 ...
国金证券:消费频次提升带动茶饮市场规模增长 聚焦供应链驱动头部连锁品牌
智通财经网· 2026-01-26 07:13
根据中商产业研究院数据,2023年我国人均现制饮品消费频次22杯,2018-2023年CAGR为22.4%。预估 2024-2026年人均现制饮品消费频次维持22.4%CAGR增长,测算得出我国2026年现制饮品市场规模同比 增长有望达22%+。当前,茶饮行业门店数增速放缓,品牌数量呈现下降趋势,行业集中度提升,步入 成长期中后段。 供应链与产品力重塑竞争格局,头部品牌优势巩固 国金证券认为,头部品牌凭借供应链与产品优势,门店数量稳健增长,店效逐步修复;中小品牌则因供 应链优势不足,在成本和价格压力下逐步出清。 从价格段细分来看,高价段中,霸王茶姬凭借品牌力、产品高质量与加盟韧性,领先地位不断巩固,根 据久谦数据,2025年来,霸王茶姬门店数量持续增长,2025年Q4霸王茶姬门店数约7千家,同比增长 13%;中价段竞争最为激烈,后端效率与产品精准上新成为核心,2025年来,古茗凭借区域加密策略构 筑起密度与效率的护城河,辅以高频精准的产品创新,率先实现门店破万并稳居规模首位,茶百道和沪 上阿姨通过质效升级紧随其后;平价段,蜜雪冰城凭借价格优势与规模效应,护城河持续拓宽,2025年 蜜雪冰城门店数量突破4万家, ...
国金证券:机器人需求驱动下新技术落地加速 长期竞争力取决于规模化量产与成本控制
智通财经网· 2026-01-26 06:00
Core Insights - The demand for humanoid robot motors is urgent, with key performance indicators including high torque density, low torque ripple, strong overload capacity, and heat dissipation properties [1] - The development of harmonic magnetic field technology is accelerating, leading to practical applications in industrial and robotic scenarios, with a gradual process from concept validation to high-end breakthroughs [3] Group 1: Motor Types and Characteristics - Humanoid robot motors are primarily divided into frameless torque motors and hollow cup motors, with frameless torque motors offering low speed, high torque, and stable performance, while hollow cup motors are smaller and lighter, providing higher power density and energy conversion efficiency [2] - Frameless torque motors are designed to mimic joint movements and muscle stretching, supporting the overall movement and load capacity of humanoid robots [2] Group 2: Technological Innovations - Harmonic magnetic field motors break traditional motor magnetic circuit design constraints, reducing size and increasing torque under high power density, leveraging the "magnetic field modulation effect" [3] - The future development of these technologies will focus on performance breakthroughs through technical innovation, with long-term competitiveness relying on cost control and mass production capabilities [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The core competitive factors in humanoid robot motors will revolve around better performance and lower costs, with companies focusing on new electric drive technologies such as magnetic field modulation and motor integration [4] - The industry is expected to see multiple solutions running in parallel, with a focus on technological advancements to achieve performance improvements [4]
“北京火箭大街”六大平台启动!航空航天ETF天弘(159241)近10日净流入近1.7亿元,机构:中国商业航天开始到达从政策孵化期向工业化爆发期过渡的关键节点
Group 1 - The aerospace sector experienced a morning adjustment on January 26, with the Guozheng Aerospace Industry Index falling by 2.14%. Among the constituent stocks, Zhenxin Technology rose over 7%, while China Satellite and Aerospace Development dropped more than 5% [1] - The Tianhong Aerospace ETF (159241) recorded two consecutive days of gains as of last Friday, with a trading volume of 166 million yuan. It has seen a net inflow of over 20 million yuan in the last two trading days, with a cumulative net inflow of over 62 million yuan in the past five trading days and 170 million yuan in the last ten trading days [1] - The Tianhong Aerospace ETF closely tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Industry Index, which covers sub-sectors such as aerospace equipment, military electronics, and satellite internet, with a high weight of 98.7% in the defense and military industry category [1] Group 2 - The third Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Promotion Conference was held on January 23, launching six platforms under "Beijing Rocket Street" aimed at accelerating major project construction and forming a comprehensive "thousand-star production capacity" [2] - According to Guojin Securities, the global aerospace industry is undergoing structural changes similar to the Age of Exploration, driven by the rise of commercial aerospace companies like SpaceX. China's commercial aerospace is transitioning from a policy incubation phase to an industrial explosion phase, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for the industry [2]
十大券商一周策略:慢牛未改!科技 + 资源品成共识配置,警惕赚钱效应收敛
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-25 23:50
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is characterized by "structural differentiation and simultaneous repair," with various institutions noting that despite ongoing redemption pressure on broad-based ETFs, sectors such as consumer chains, real estate chains, and resource products are entering a repair window [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The broad-based ETF redemption pressure continues to grow, with significant differences in the承接力 (support capacity) among different industries and stocks [2]. - The consumer chain is expected to see an increase in allocation leading up to the Two Sessions, with the real estate chain also likely to experience noticeable recovery during this period [2]. - The spring market is supported by ample liquidity and policy backing, which may sustain the ongoing spring rally, although caution is advised regarding the marginal contraction of profit effects at high levels [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The consensus among institutions is to focus on technology (AI, semiconductors) and resource products (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) as key investment directions [1][7]. - There is growing attention on cyclical sectors showing signs of bottom reversal, such as power grid equipment and lithium batteries, as well as non-bank sectors [1][3]. - The current market environment is conducive to exploring basic combinations centered around chemicals, non-ferrous metals, new energy, and power equipment, while also considering low allocation in non-bank sectors like securities and insurance [2][4]. Group 3: Performance and Earnings - As the annual report forecast disclosure period peaks, the impact of earnings on market structure is expected to become more pronounced, with a focus on sectors with earnings highlights [4][11]. - The performance of sectors such as AI hardware, batteries, pharmaceuticals, steel, and non-bank financials is anticipated to improve, given their relatively low price increases [4][12]. - The market is likely to experience a rotation among sectors, with a focus on high-growth areas and those benefiting from price increases [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its slow bull trend, with the potential for a correction after reaching a phase high between 4200 and 4300 points [6][10]. - The spring market is seen as an extension of the structural bull market, with a likelihood of a consolidation phase following the current rally [3][5]. - The focus for 2026 includes a clearer dual mainline of asset allocation towards physical assets and Chinese assets, with thematic investments becoming essential [9][10].
【十大券商一周策略】春季行情仍在途,注意总体赚钱效应已逼近高位
券商中国· 2026-01-25 14:11
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the ongoing recovery of market confidence, with potential for sector and stock recovery, particularly in consumer and real estate chains before the Two Sessions [2] - The article highlights the significant outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs, with a notable impact on sectors and stocks that are underweight by institutions [2] - It suggests that sectors with strong fundamentals and logical narratives, particularly those not heavily weighted in broad-based indices, are likely to see recovery [2] Group 2 - The spring market is characterized by a transition towards a more stable phase, with the potential for a perfect spring market driven by increased profitability [3] - The article notes that the overall profitability effect is nearing a high point, indicating that the market may face limitations in time and space for further growth [3] - It anticipates a correction phase following the spring market, where the focus will shift to clearer industrial trends and performance digestion [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the supportive role of abundant liquidity in driving the current spring market, stemming from various factors including insurance capital and foreign fund inflows [4] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on fundamental performance as companies begin to disclose annual reports, with particular attention to sectors like AI hardware, batteries, and pharmaceuticals [5] Group 4 - The article identifies the current market phase as a structural bull market, transitioning from the second consolidation phase to the third upward phase [6] - It suggests that the market may face a correction after reaching a temporary high between 4200 and 4300 points, with a focus on the support levels and core sectors [6] Group 5 - The article advocates for a dual focus on technology and resource sectors, highlighting the importance of macroeconomic conditions and liquidity in shaping investment strategies [7] - It identifies key sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and new energy as central to current market trends, with a positive outlook for resource industries [7] Group 6 - The article suggests that the market's optimism is necessary, particularly in light of the recent volatility and the need to consider the relationship between market optimism and regulatory cooling [8] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on physical assets and Chinese assets in investment strategies, with a recommendation for sectors like equipment exports and consumer recovery [9] Group 7 - The article indicates that the current market is entering a phase of high volatility and differentiation, with expectations for policy-driven demand expansion [10] - It highlights the potential for the non-ferrous metals sector to benefit from both industrial trends and financial attributes, particularly in light of geopolitical factors [11] Group 8 - The article notes that the A-share market is returning to a slow bull trend, with an increasing importance of sector rotation and fundamental performance [12] - It emphasizes the need to focus on structural investment opportunities, particularly in technology innovation and manufacturing sectors [12] Group 9 - The article suggests that the current market may be entering the latter half of the spring market, with a focus on sectors with strong performance and clear industrial trends [13] - It highlights the potential for price increases in sectors like basic chemicals and new energy materials, as well as opportunities in export-driven sectors [13] Group 10 - The article maintains that the slow bull trend is likely to continue, with a focus on technology, resource sectors, and industries with high growth potential [14] - It suggests that the current market conditions provide ample opportunities for investment, particularly in sectors with strong earnings forecasts [14]