Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Macro Timing Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic growth and monetary liquidity signals to determine equity allocation levels[41][42] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assigns signal strengths to economic growth and monetary liquidity dimensions - Economic growth signal: 100% - Monetary liquidity signal: 50% 2. Equity allocation recommendation is derived based on these signals, with September's recommended equity position at 75% 3. Historical performance: From early 2025 to date, the strategy achieved a return of 11.75%, compared to Wind All A's return of 22.98%[41][42] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced view of macroeconomic and liquidity conditions, offering actionable insights for equity allocation[41][42] - **Model Name**: Rotation Model for Small-Cap Stocks **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies style rotation opportunities between small-cap stocks and large-cap stocks (represented by the "茅指数")[19][20][22] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Relative net value comparison: Small-cap stocks/茅指数 relative net value is compared to its 243-day moving average - If above the moving average, small-cap stocks are preferred; otherwise, 茅指数 is recommended 2. 20-day closing price slope analysis: - Positive slope indicates preference for the respective index - Current slopes: Small-cap stocks (-0.08%) vs 茅指数 (0.24%) 3. Risk control indicators: - Volatility crowding degree (-35.58%) - 10-year government bond yield (-8.12%) - Both indicators are below risk thresholds (55% and 30%, respectively)[19][20][22] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures style rotation signals and provides risk control measures for small-cap stock investments[19][20][22] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Stock Selection Factors **Factor Construction Idea**: Eight major stock selection factors are tracked across different stock pools (All A-shares, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000)[45][53][55] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Factors include: - **Value**: Metrics like SP_TTM (past 12-month revenue/latest market value) - **Growth**: Metrics like OperatingIncome_SQ_Chg1Y (quarterly operating income YoY growth) - **Quality**: Metrics like ROE_FTTM (future 12-month expected net profit/shareholder equity average) - **Technical**: Metrics like Skewness_240D (240-day return skewness) - **Volatility**: Metrics like IV_CAPM (CAPM residual volatility)[53][55] 2. Weekly tracking of IC mean values and multi-long-short portfolio returns - Quality factors performed well last week, while others showed mixed results across stock pools[45][53][55] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides comprehensive insights into factor performance across different market segments, aiding in stock selection[45][53][55] - **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Selection Factors **Factor Construction Idea**: Convertible bond factors are derived from the relationship between convertible bonds and their underlying stocks[50][53] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Key factors include: - **Stock Consensus Expectation**: Predictive metrics for underlying stocks - **Stock Financial Quality**: Metrics like ROE_FTTM - **Convertible Bond Valuation**: Metrics like parity and bottom price premium rate[50][53] 2. Weekly tracking of IC mean values and multi-long-short portfolio returns - Positive IC mean values observed for stock consensus expectation, financial quality, stock value, and convertible bond valuation factors[50][53] **Factor Evaluation**: Offers robust predictive insights for convertible bond selection based on stock-related metrics[50][53] --- Backtesting Results Models - **Macro Timing Strategy**: - Return: 11.75% (2025 YTD) - Benchmark (Wind All A): 22.98%[41][42] - **Rotation Model for Small-Cap Stocks**: - Small-cap stocks/茅指数 relative net value: 1.88 (above 243-day moving average of 1.62) - 20-day closing price slopes: Small-cap stocks (-0.08%), 茅指数 (0.24%)[19][20][22] Factors - **Stock Selection Factors**: - IC mean values: Quality factors performed best last week[45][53][55] - **Convertible Bond Selection Factors**: - IC mean values: Positive for stock consensus expectation, financial quality, stock value, and convertible bond valuation factors[50][53]

证券代码：600109 证券简称：国金证券 公告编号：临2025－76 | 债券名称 | | | 国金证券股份有限公司 第八期短期融资券 | 2025 年度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券简称 25 | | 国金证券 CP008 | 债券流通代码 | 072510233 | | 发行日 2025 | | 年 9 月 19 日 | 起息日 | 2025 年 9 月 22 日 | | 兑付日 2026 | | 年 5 月 15 日 | 期限 | 235 天 | | 计划发行总额 10 | | 亿元人民币 | 实际发行总额 | 10 亿元人民币 | | 票面利率 | 1.77% | | 发行价格 | 100 元/百元面值 | 本期发行短期融资券的相关文件已在以下网站上刊登： 关于2025年度第八期短期融资券发行结果公告 国金证券股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 董事会 国金证券股份有限公司2025年度第八期短期融资券已于2025年9月 22日发行完毕，相 ...

Group 1: Key Insights on Baijiu Industry - Demand for banquets has been released in July and August, with a focus on business hospitality and gift-giving ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1][2] - External risk events have had a decreasing impact on baijiu consumption scenarios, but overall consumption sentiment remains lower compared to the same period last year, leading to an estimated 20% year-on-year decline in sales [2][3] - The baijiu sector is expected to stabilize and recover as consumer sentiment improves, supported by ongoing consumption promotion policies and a gradual recovery in demand [2][3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end baijiu brands with strong market positions, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as Shanxi Fenjiu, which is benefiting from upward channel momentum [3] - Potential cyclical recovery candidates include national brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, along with innovative companies like Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [3] Group 3: Insights on Other Alcoholic Beverages - Beer demand is recovering steadily, with companies diversifying into non-drinking channels and soft drinks, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4] - The yellow wine sector is expected to see improved competitive dynamics due to price increases among leading brands, with potential for marginal catalysts as the peak season approaches [4] Group 4: Insights on Non-Alcoholic Beverages and Snacks - The soft drink sector is experiencing growth in high-demand segments like energy drinks and sugar-free tea, while traditional categories face some pressure [5] - The snack industry is seeing an increase in store openings and revenue recovery, with specific products like nut gift boxes expected to see improved demand ahead of the holidays [4][5]

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，9月5日，山东玻纤/金牛/三磊等企业发布玻纤复价函，对直 接纱、采光板纱、短切毡纱等相关产品每吨上浮5-10%不等。观察本轮复价特点为，集中在二三线玻纤 厂家的中低端产品，判断主因系Q2以来出口景气度略承压。美联储降息落地，玻纤具备全球定价属 性、类资源品，看好玻纤出口的量/价弹性。行业底部明确、蓄势待发，反内卷带动二三线厂家复价。 下游需求方面，率先看好25Q4电子布价格弹性，以及AI电子布业务对业绩/估值的拉动。 事件：9月17日，美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25BP到4-4.25%之间，这是美联储2025年第一次 降息，也是继2024年3次降息后的再次降息。 玻纤具备全球定价属性，类资源品 根据中国玻纤工业协会数据，2024年玻纤及制品直接出口产量202万吨，在国内756万吨总产量中占比 26.7%，此外，跟随家电、汽车等终端产品出口的部分难以量化。按照国内产量756万吨、全球1200万 吨的大数口径测算，简单测算玻纤海外敞口占比或超50%(测算方法为国内敞口=【国内产量-出口+进 口】/全球需求)，玻纤行业早已经历国产替代、并形成中国是全球一供的格局。因此， ...

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry is experiencing a recovery characterized by "overall pressure and internal differentiation," with significant variations in same-store performance and a shift from low-base recovery logic to genuine supply-side adjustments since 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The restaurant industry's revenue showed signs of pressure and differentiation in H1 2025, with fluctuations in year-on-year growth rates for social retail dining and above-limit dining since 2025, including negative growth in July for above-limit dining [1]. - The national restaurant industry prosperity index was 104.1 in June 2025, slightly down by 0.1% from May, indicating slight volatility despite strong demand in specific scenarios like graduation banquets and summer night markets [1][2]. - The performance of same-store sales varied significantly, with resilient performance in cost-effective categories like tea drinks and fast food, while high-ticket hot pot categories faced notable pressure [1][2]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Leading brands are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, adapting store types to local markets, and prioritizing profit over revenue growth [2][3]. - Companies with supply chain advantages or refined operational capabilities, such as Yum China and Gu Ming, are showing stable profitability, with some brands like Gu Ming achieving a net profit increase of 121.5% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Expansion and Profitability - The profitability of individual stores is crucial for supporting expansion, with the logic of opening new stores being based on whether the combined profits of new and existing stores exceed previous profits [3]. - Successful examples include Xiao Cai Yuan, which achieved a net increase of 55 stores in H1 2025 with a profit margin of 23.8%, demonstrating a positive cycle of store expansion and profit growth [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The industry outlook remains positive for cost-effective dining segments, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies like Xiao Cai Yuan, which is expected to accelerate store openings and achieve positive same-store growth in the current market environment [4].

该行预测，承载CPX的PCB，价值量积极提升，叠加CX9网卡新增PCB需求，VR NVL144 CPX的PCB价 值量提升显著。英伟达正在推进正交背板研发，也有望采用M9+Q布，如果采用，单机架PCB价值量有 望实现翻倍以上的成长。此外，ASIC芯片用PCB技术也在不断升级，从高多层向HDI演进，未来也有望 从M8向M9演进，价值量持续提升。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，看好AI-PCB及算力硬件、苹果链、AI驱动及自主可控受益 产业链。下游推理需求激增，带动ASIC需求强劲增长，英伟达技术不断升级，带动PCB价量齐升，目 前多家AI-PCB公司订单强劲，满产满销，正在大力扩产，下半年业绩高增长有望持续。AI覆铜板也需 求旺盛，由于海外覆铜板扩产缓慢，大陆覆铜板龙头厂商有望积极受益。AI覆铜板/PCB的强劲需求也 带动了配套设备(钻孔机、直写光刻设备、钻针等)及上游电子布/铜箔等需求。 国金证券主要观点如下： 重点关注三季度业绩有望超预期方向。该行研判AI-PCB产业链业绩有望继续超预期，主要有几个方面 的驱动：英伟达NVL72机架(GB200/300)及八卡服务器积极拉货，良率逐步提升，下半年出 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 国金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）于2025年5月26日发行了2025年度第三期短期融资券，发 行金额为人民币5亿元，票面利率为1.65%，发行期限为116天，兑付日为2025年9月19日。详见公司于 2025年5月27日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《关于2025年度第三期短期融资券发 行结果公告》以及2025年9月12日登载于中国货币网（www.chinamoney.com.cn）、上海清算所网站 （www.shclearing.com）的《国金证券股份有限公司2025年度第三期短期融资券兑付公告》。 国金证券股份有限公司 董事会 二〇二五年九月二十二日 2025年9月19日，本公司兑付了该期短期融资券本息共计人民币502,621,917.81元。 特此公告。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities suggests that a bull market driven by the recovery of China's profit fundamentals may be emerging, with two main opportunities to focus on: the potential rebound of Hong Kong stocks and a shift in growth investment from technology-driven sectors to export-oriented sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - The "preventive rate cuts" by the Federal Reserve have historically led to a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, with GDP growth reversing downward trends and a slight decrease in unemployment rates [1]. - The Fed has slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025-2027 while lowering unemployment rate predictions for 2026-2027, indicating a more stable economic outlook [1]. Group 2: Impact on Emerging Markets - The impact of U.S. rate cuts on emerging markets occurs through two main channels: alleviating currency depreciation pressures and providing more room for domestic monetary policy [2]. - If the U.S. achieves a "soft landing," emerging markets, particularly net-exporting countries like China, may benefit from increased external demand driven by U.S. capital expenditures [2]. Group 3: Export Opportunities - Historical data shows that export-oriented A-share companies have outperformed the CSI 300 index during previous rate cut cycles, indicating a potential for similar performance in the current cycle [3]. - Guojin Securities has identified 18 sub-industries that may benefit from the current "preventive rate cuts," categorized into three main types: capital goods related to investment, intermediate goods linked to manufacturing recovery, and consumer and pharmaceutical sectors with their own industry trends [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the bull market may be supported by improved operating conditions due to domestic economic adjustments and recovery in manufacturing activities following rate cuts [4]. - Recommended sectors include upstream resources (copper, aluminum, oil, gold), capital goods (engineering machinery, heavy trucks, lithium batteries, wind power equipment), and raw materials (basic chemicals, fiberglass, paper, steel) [4]. - Additionally, sectors related to domestic demand recovery, such as food and beverage, pork, tourism, and scenic spots, are expected to present opportunities as profit recovery progresses [4].

国金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）于2025年5月26日 发行了2025年度第三期短期融资券，发行金额为人民币5亿元，票面利 率为1.65%，发行期限为116天，兑付日为2025年9月19日。详见公司于 2025年5月27日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《关 于2025年度第三期短期融资券发行结果公告》以及2025年9月12日登载 于中国货币网（www.chinamoney.com.cn）、上海清算所网站（www.shcle aring.com）的《国金证券股份有限公司2025年度第三期短期融资券兑 付公告》。 2025年9月19日，本公司兑付了该期短期融资券本息共计人民币 502,621,917.81元。 特此公告。 证券代码：600109 证券简称：国金证券 公告编号：临2025－75 国金证券股份有限公司 关于2025年度第三期短期融资券兑付完成的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 国金证券股份有限公司 董事会 二〇二五年九月二十二日 ...

Core Insights - The 42 listed securities firms reported a total operating revenue of 251.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 billion yuan, up 65% [1] - All 42 firms achieved positive growth in net profit, with 10 firms experiencing a doubling of their profits [1] Group 1: Overall Performance - The total operating revenue for the 42 listed securities firms reached 251.9 billion yuan, marking a 31% increase year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 104 billion yuan, reflecting a 65% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Notably, all firms reported positive growth in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Individual Firm Performance - Among the firms, 10 achieved a doubling of their net profit, including Huaxi Securities, Guolian Minsheng, Northeast Securities, and others [1] - Guojin Securities reported a significant increase in operating revenue to 38.62 billion yuan, up 44.28%, and a net profit of 11.11 billion yuan, up 144.19% [4] - Despite overall growth, Guojin Securities' investment banking revenue declined significantly, with a 17.94% drop in revenue and a negative operating profit [7] Group 3: Business Segment Analysis - Wealth management, proprietary investment, and other segments saw substantial revenue growth, with proprietary investment revenue increasing by 301.68% [5][6] - Guojin Securities' investment banking revenue fell to 3.77 billion yuan, down 17.94%, with a negative operating profit of approximately 0.98 billion yuan [7] - The firm’s equity underwriting revenue dropped significantly, with a 80.63% decline in equity financing underwriting amount [8] Group 4: Market Position and Challenges - Guojin Securities' market position weakened, with its equity underwriting amount falling to 16.39 billion yuan, ranking 13th in the market for initial public offerings (IPOs) [8][9] - The firm faced challenges in its IPO business, with a reported 84% decline in IPO underwriting revenue and a high withdrawal rate of IPO projects [9] - Regulatory issues also impacted Guojin Securities, as it faced penalties for serious violations during the IPO process of a client [9]