Report Information - Report Title: Convertible Bond Selection + Timing Strategy Weekly Tracking (as of February 2, 2026) - Report Date: February 2, 2025 - Report Source: Financial Products Center, Securities Research Report [1] Core Viewpoints - This week, the three strategies jointly held 6 convertible bonds, namely Lanfan Convertible Bond, Changqi Convertible Bond, Qiaqia Convertible Bond, Fuhan Convertible Bond, Xianle Convertible Bond, and Zheng22 Convertible Bond. The sub - low - price strategy maintained low turnover, and the price center of the increased - holding targets was at a medium - high level. The option strategy also maintained low turnover [2] - The double - low strategy's increased - holding targets this week were mainly affected by the implied volatility, the factor of convertible bond price changes relative to the underlying stock price changes, and the环比 change of the conversion premium rate [6] - From an industry perspective, the model's recommended directions are petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, building decoration, social services, and basic chemicals. The industry mainline is cyclical, mainly contributed by the factor of conversion price change relative to the underlying stock price change and the conversion premium rate factor. There is a marginal increase in social services [7] Strategy - related Summaries Sub - low - price Strategy - Increased - holding targets: ForceNuo Convertible Bond (123221), YinBang Convertible Bond (123252), etc. [4] - Performance: It fell 1.84% in the past week, with an excess return of - 0.96% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Low - price Index. It rose 5.44% this year, with an excess return of 1.65% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 25.15%, the Sharpe ratio was 2.21, the Calmar ratio was 3.96, the maximum drawdown was 6.35%, and the annualized excess return was 4.09% [10][12][26] - Factor: The factor was the average closing price of the past week, with a weight of 100%. The IC mean was - 7.90%, the IC standard deviation was 22.29%, the ICIR was - 35.45%, the frequency of IC>0 was 18.53%, and the p - Value was 0.00% [15] Option Strategy - Increased - holding targets: NaiPuZhuan02 (123265), LianRui Convertible Bond (118064), etc. [6] - Performance: It fell 1.84% in the past week, with an excess return of - 0.96% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Low - price Index. It rose 7.95% this year, with an excess return of 4.08% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 32.53%, the Sharpe ratio was 3.09, the Calmar ratio was 6.96, the maximum drawdown was 4.68%, and the annualized excess return was 10.12% [10][12][26] - Factor: The main factor was the intraday amplitude difference of the convertible bond relative to the underlying stock, with a weight of 100%. The IC mean was - 4.40%, the IC standard deviation was 19.04%, the ICIR was - 23.09%, the frequency of IC>0 was 31.38%, and the p - Value was 0.00% [15] Double - low Enhanced Strategy - Increased - holding targets (TOP10): ShuangLiang Convertible Bond (110095), LiZi Convertible Bond (111014), etc. [25] - Performance: It fell 2.63% in the past week, with an excess return of - 1.17% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Double - low Index. It rose 6.40% this year, with an excess return of 4.12% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 30.83%, the Sharpe ratio was 2.18, the Calmar ratio was 3.97, the maximum drawdown was 7.76%, and the annualized excess return was 14.17% [10][12][26] - Factor: Multiple factors were involved, such as the convertible bond price change relative to the underlying stock price change in the past week, the average closing price in the past week, and the 环比 change of the conversion premium rate in the past week, each with a weight of 20% [15] Industry Rotation Strategy - Recommended industries: Petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, building decoration, social services, and basic chemicals. The top 5 industries and bottom 5 industries are also presented in the report [7][8] - Performance: It fell 1.38% in the past week, with an excess return of 0.10% compared to the Wind Convertible Bond Double - low Index. It rose 4.34% this year, with an excess return of 2.10% compared to the benchmark. In the past year, the annualized return was 23.38%, the Sharpe ratio was 1.71, the Calmar ratio was 3.52, the maximum drawdown was 6.64%, and the annualized excess return was 7.62% [10][12][26] - Factor: Four factors were used, including the Amihud ratio, the double - low factor's historical quantile, the convertible bond price change relative to the underlying stock price change in the past 2 weeks, and the 环比 change of the conversion premium rate in the past month, each with a weight of 25% [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant decline in Chinese tourists traveling to Japan following travel advisories issued by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the consulate in Japan, with a notable drop in December [1] - Hainan has emerged as a new popular destination for Chinese tourists, with platforms like Qunar and Ctrip reporting over a 45% year-on-year increase in daily flight orders to Hainan during the Spring Festival holiday [1] - Major source cities for Hainan tourism include Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, with approximately 40% of tourists from Shanghai and surrounding areas and about 25% from Beijing [1] Group 2 - Domestic duty-free consumption continues to grow, with expectations for strong performance during the Spring Festival peak season [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for China Duty Free Group has been adjusted to 1.77, 2.79, and 3.34 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, based on various factors including the return of consumption in Japan and the popularity of Hainan tourism [1] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the adjusted EPS forecasts are projected to be 52.16, 33.15, and 27.69 times, referencing the closing price of 97.00 yuan on February 11, 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Truck) announced an investor research meeting scheduled for February 11, 2026, where the company's board secretary and investor relations personnel will participate and address investor inquiries [1] Group 2 - The company is engaging with investors through a scheduled research meeting, indicating a proactive approach to investor relations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the approval of urban investment bonds was characterized by a continuous increase in registration quotas, a slowdown in the approval pace, and a low level of terminated project scale. The overall financing pace at the beginning of the year shifted from loose to tight [5][47]. - The marginal changes in bond market supervision and approval reflect that the current implementation of debt - resolution policies continues the orientation of "strictly controlling increments, resolving existing stocks, and providing long - term empowerment." The issuance of the third batch of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds started in early January, and the Ministry of Finance further clarified that ultra - long - term special treasury bonds would continue to be arranged in 2026. Considering that 2026 is the sprint stage for debt resolution and the 6 - trillion - yuan replacement bond plan is coming to an end, the upward trend of urban investment bond registration quotas is expected to continue [5][47]. - In the long run, the urban investment debt - resolution work has entered a critical period of accelerating and improving efficiency. The debt - resolution paths will be more diverse, and the differentiation of debt - resolution effects among different regions will become more obvious. As the goal of clearing hidden debts approaches, local debt - resolution efforts will continue to increase, the market - oriented clearance process of financing platforms will accelerate, and measures to promote platform transformation through asset restructuring will be more in - depth [6][48]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Registration Situation: Continuous Increase in Urban Investment Registration Quotas - In January, the registration quota of urban investment platforms continued to rise. The registration scale of provincial, municipal, and district - county urban investment all increased to varying degrees, while the registration scale of weak - quality districts and counties declined. The scale in regions such as Zhejiang, Shandong, and Hubei increased significantly month - on - month [2][12]. - The planned issuance scale of urban investment bonds registered on the exchange was 315 billion yuan (previous value: 239.4 billion yuan), and that on DCM was 177.1 billion yuan (previous value: 168.5 billion yuan). The overall registration continued to rise and was higher than the quotas in the same period of the past three years [12]. - The proportion of district - county urban investment bonds in the three - month moving average among all administrative levels continued to decline for three months to 52%. The registration scale of district - county platforms with a budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan was 66.9 billion yuan (previous value: 92.3 billion yuan), and the three - month moving average proportion increased to 37.8% [15][18]. 3.2 Approval Feedback: Slowdown in Urban Investment Bond Approval - In January, the approval pace of DCM and the exchange for urban investment bonds slowed down. The average number of feedbacks from DCM was 2.4 times (previous value: 2.4 times), and the feedback time increased to 41.5 days (previous value: 40.6 days); the average number of feedbacks from the exchange was 4.2 times (previous value: 4.2 times), and the feedback time increased to 77.8 days (previous value: 68.9 days) [25]. - The feedback pace of public urban investment corporate bonds in prefecture - level cities accelerated significantly, while that of private urban investment corporate bonds in prefecture - level and district - county levels slowed down [30]. - The approval feedback days in Sichuan, Fujian, Hubei and other regions were significantly extended. The approval pace in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan and other regions accelerated significantly, while Shandong and Henan continued the trend of a slowdown in the approval speed [32]. - The approval pace of weak - quality district - county platform bonds continued to slow down. The feedback days of district - county platforms with a general budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan were 67.2 days (previous value: 65.2 days), lower than the average of last year [35]. 3.3 Terminated Issuance: Low - Level Maintenance of Terminated Project Scale - In January, the scale of terminated projects remained at a low level. The planned issuance scale of terminated urban investment bonds increased from 500 million yuan to 600 million yuan, and the number of terminated projects was the same as last month, both being 1. The proportion of the terminated scale of district - county urban investment bonds in the three - month moving average increased to 74% [37]. - The terminated projects of urban investment platforms mainly occurred in Hubei, mainly in district - county platforms [42]. 3.4 Research Conclusions and Suggestions - The approval of urban investment bonds in January showed the characteristics of a continuous increase in registration quotas, a slowdown in the approval pace, and a low - level maintenance of terminated project scale. The overall financing pace at the beginning of the year shifted from loose to tight [5][47]. - The marginal changes in bond market supervision and approval reflect the implementation of the current debt - resolution policy. Considering the debt - resolution situation in 2026, the upward trend of urban investment bond registration quotas is expected to continue [5][47]. - In the long run, the urban investment debt - resolution work has entered a critical period, with more diverse debt - resolution paths and more obvious differentiation in debt - resolution effects among regions. Local debt - resolution efforts will increase, and platform transformation will be promoted more deeply [6][48].

- The report discusses the performance of the four major stock index futures contracts (IF, IC, IM, IH) over the past week, highlighting that IH had the highest increase of 0.90%, while IC experienced the largest decline of -0.08%[3][11] - The average trading volume of the contracts showed mixed performance, with IC increasing the most by 2.72%, and IH decreasing the most by -16.58%[3][11] - The average open interest of all four contracts declined, with IF showing the largest decrease of -11.61%, and IM the smallest decrease of -0.69%[3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -2.13%, -4.76%, -8.13%, and -0.44%, respectively, as of last Friday's close[3][11] - The inter-month spread rates for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts were at the 3.10%, 0.60%, 11.80%, and 31.30% percentiles of their historical distributions since 2019, with IM and IH at normal levels and IF and IC at relatively low levels[4][12] - Dividend forecasts for the next year indicate that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, SSE 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index will impact index points by 81.23, 90.90, 72.77, and 68.78, respectively[4][12] - The report provides a formula for calculating forward and reverse arbitrage returns in index futures trading, considering factors such as transaction costs, margin ratios, and risk-free rates[46] - The dividend estimation method involves using historical dividend patterns and EPS data to predict future dividend points, with specific formulas provided for calculating the impact on index points[48][52]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intensifying competition among banks for deposits ahead of the Spring Festival, highlighting strategies employed by both small and large banks to attract customers through interest rate adjustments and promotional incentives [3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Competition - Small banks are raising interest rates on specific deposit products, with some rural commercial banks offering three-year deposit rates close to 2% [3][5]. - Over 10 small banks have increased deposit rates since the beginning of 2026, particularly targeting specific products and higher minimum deposit amounts [5]. - Large banks are not directly raising rates but are enhancing their deposit acquisition efforts through rewards and incentives, such as cash rebates and points for new customers [6]. Group 2: Expectations on Deposit Flows - The competition for deposits reflects banks' anticipation of a significant amount of term deposits maturing in 2026, with expectations that most of these funds will remain within the banking system [4][8]. - Estimates suggest that approximately 75 trillion yuan of household term deposits will mature in 2026, with 67 trillion yuan being one year or longer [8]. - Despite concerns about potential "deposit migration" to the stock market, industry insiders believe that the majority of maturing funds will continue to circulate within the banking system [8][9]. Group 3: Trends in Risk Appetite - The increase in maturing deposits is not particularly pronounced, with annual growth rates of 4 trillion to 7 trillion yuan observed since 2022 [9]. - Current low-risk appetite among residents is evident, as data shows a negative correlation between income confidence and savings willingness [9]. - Historical trends indicate that periods of declining savings willingness often coincide with rising income expectations [9]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Post-Maturity - Funds from maturing deposits are expected to flow primarily into low-risk assets, such as bank wealth management products and money market funds [11][13]. - Historical data from Japan indicates that during similar economic conditions, residents increased their holdings in cash, deposits, and insurance while reducing investments in stocks and high-risk assets [10][12]. - The preference for low-risk investments is expected to continue, with a significant portion of maturing deposits likely being allocated to wealth management products [13][14].

- The AI-based global asset allocation model suggests a weight of 74.76% for the government bond index, 24.97% for SHFE gold, and 0.27% for the Hang Seng Index for February[5][44] - The model's performance in January showed a monthly return of -0.25%, compared to the benchmark strategy's return of 0.14%[5][44] - Historical performance from January 2021 to January 2026 indicates an annualized return of 7.22%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.07, and a maximum drawdown of 6.66%[46] - The stock-bond allocation model, based on macro timing and risk budgeting, suggests stock weights of 10.19%, 16.91%, and 70.00% for conservative, balanced, and aggressive profiles, respectively, for February[6][50] - The model's performance in January showed monthly returns of 3.65%, 1.22%, and 0.39% for aggressive, balanced, and conservative profiles, respectively[6][50] - Historical performance from January 2005 to January 2026 indicates annualized returns of 20.15%, 10.85%, and 5.87% for aggressive, balanced, and conservative profiles, respectively[51][57] - The dividend timing model recommends a 100% position in the CSI Dividend Index for February[7][58] - The model's performance shows an annualized return of 15.85%, an annualized volatility of 17.26%, a maximum drawdown of -21.22%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.90[7][59] - The model's recent one-month return is 0.00%, compared to the CSI Dividend Total Return Index's return of 3.76%[7][59]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities forecasts that the net profit attributable to the parent company of China Ship Leasing (03877) will be HKD 2.16 billion, HKD 2.30 billion, and HKD 2.48 billion for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 6%, and 8% respectively. The lower profit growth in 2025 is attributed to the completion of certain financing leasing and loan projects, leading to a decline in related income, as well as a tax expense of HKD 140 million due to the retrospective application of the Basel II framework starting in 2025. The company demonstrates counter-cyclical investment capability, leading operational capacity, low funding costs, and a high dividend payout ratio (approximately 40%), with a projected dividend yield of about 7% at the current price. A target price of HKD 2.64 is set based on a 1x PB for 2026, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Diverse Business Structure - As of the first half of 2025, the company's revenue breakdown from operating leasing, financing leasing, loan borrowing, and ship brokerage is 60%, 27%, 12%, and 1% respectively. The company primarily focuses on long-term leasing, providing revenue growth certainty. The net asset value of the company's ship assets and the scale of receivables from leasing are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% from 2020 to 2024. The estimated operating leasing yield and financing leasing yield for 2024 are 14.4% and 7.8% respectively. In addition to long-term leases, the company utilizes its industry expertise to deploy some self-operated and joint venture ships in the spot and short-term market, contributing approximately 30% to profits from 2021 to 2024 [1]. Group 2: Leading Operational Capability - The company's fleet is characterized by diversity, high value, and youth, with a fleet size of 143 vessels as of the first half of 2025. According to Clarkson data, as of September 2025, the company's ship asset value ranks 7th among Chinese leasing companies and 2nd among non-bank leasing companies. The company is one of only four Chinese shipping leasing companies covering all ship types. The company is also leading in green transformation, with 91% of its vessels being energy-efficient as of September 2025, ranking 2nd among the top ten leasing companies in terms of vessel quantity. The average age of the fleet is 4.13 years, lower than comparable peers, and new ships generally comply with environmental policies, resulting in lower maintenance costs and strong appeal to quality customers [2]. Group 3: Low Funding Costs - The company holds a high credit rating, with Fitch and S&P both rating it A- as of the first half of 2025. The average funding cost is 3.1%, which is below the industry average. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates three times in 2025, and the majority of the company's liabilities denominated in USD, the average funding cost is anticipated to decline further [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities forecasts that the net profit attributable to the parent company of China Ship Leasing (03877) will be HKD 2.16 billion, HKD 2.30 billion, and HKD 2.48 billion for the years 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 6%, and 8% respectively. The lower profit growth in 2025 is attributed to the completion of certain financing leasing and loan projects, leading to a decline in related income, and a tax expense of HKD 140 million due to the retrospective application of the second pillar framework starting in 2025. The company is characterized by counter-cyclical investment capability, leading operational ability, low funding costs, and a high dividend payout ratio (approximately 40%), with a projected dividend yield of about 7% at the current price. A target price of HKD 2.64 is set based on a 1x PB for 2026, with an initial "Buy" rating assigned [1]. Group 1: Diverse Business Structure - As of the first half of 2025, the company's revenue breakdown from operating leasing, financing leasing, loan borrowing, and ship brokerage is 60%, 27%, 12%, and 1% respectively. The company primarily focuses on long-term leasing, providing revenue growth certainty. The net asset value of the company's ship assets and the scale of receivables from leasing are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% from 2020 to 2024. The estimated operating leasing yield and financing leasing yield for 2024 are 14.4% and 7.8% respectively. In addition to long-term leases, the company utilizes its professional industry knowledge to operate some self-owned and joint venture ships in the spot and short-term markets, contributing approximately 30% to profits from 2021 to 2024 [1]. Group 2: Leading Operational Capability - The company's fleet is characterized by diversity, high value, and youthfulness, with a fleet size of 143 vessels as of the first half of 2025. According to Clarkson data, as of September 2025, the company's ship asset value ranks 7th among Chinese leasing companies and 2nd among non-bank leasing companies. The company is one of only four Chinese shipping leasing companies covering all ship types. The company is also leading in green transformation, with 91% of its vessels being energy-efficient as of September 2025, ranking 2nd among the top ten leasing companies in terms of vessel quantity. The average age of the fleet is 4.13 years, lower than comparable peers, and new ships generally comply with environmental policies, resulting in lower maintenance costs and strong appeal to high-quality customers [2]. Group 3: Low Funding Costs - The company has a high credit rating, with Fitch and S&P both rating it A- as of the first half of 2025. The average funding cost is 3.1%, which is below the industry level. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates three times in 2025, and the majority of the company's liabilities denominated in USD, the average funding cost is anticipated to decline further [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the weakening of the post-World War II rules-based international order, with countries prioritizing strategic autonomy and security, leading to increased resilience investments in energy, food, and critical minerals [2][36]. Group 1: Strategic Autonomy and Security - Countries are increasingly focusing on strategic autonomy and security in response to the risks exposed by extreme globalization, as highlighted by Canadian Prime Minister Carney [2][37]. - The need for strategic reserves at both national and industry levels is clear, aiming to secure the foundations of modern industry and defense [3][37]. Group 2: Historical Insights from the Cold War - Historical analysis shows that national security strategies can drive demand for strategic metals, leading to significant price increases beyond typical industry cycles [5][40]. - The geopolitical tensions of the 1970s, particularly the U.S.-Soviet rivalry, created a context where strategic metals experienced dramatic price surges due to increased demand for national defense [8][40]. Group 3: Geopolitical Supply Risks - The U.S. and Soviet Union's competition led to the weaponization of supply chains, with both sides imposing export bans on critical minerals, creating supply shortages and price volatility [9][44]. - The price of strategic metals saw exponential increases during the late 1970s to early 1980s, driven by geopolitical risks and national security concerns [10][45]. Group 4: Current Geopolitical Landscape - Major economies are now issuing "critical mineral lists" to address supply chain vulnerabilities, with the U.S. expanding its list to 60 minerals by 2025 [11][46]. - The concentration of mineral production in a few countries, such as China and Russia, heightens supply chain risks, as these nations dominate the production of many critical minerals [13][48]. Group 5: Demand for Critical Minerals - Key minerals like aluminum, graphite, cobalt, tungsten, and titanium are essential for national defense industries, with specific applications in military equipment and technology [21][56]. - The strategic importance of these minerals is underscored by their critical roles in various defense applications, from ammunition to aerospace components [22][57]. Group 6: Implications for Commodity Pricing - The current geopolitical climate is leading to a rise in "security premiums" for commodities, as countries prioritize securing their supply chains for energy, food, and critical minerals [29][64]. - The historical volatility of strategic metal prices during the Cold War serves as a reminder that national security-driven demand can significantly influence commodity markets [29][64].