煤炭 煤炭行业 2026 年策略报告 领先大市-A(维持) 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 11 月进口煤价继续提升 2025.12.30 【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评 11 月：煤价环比上涨，反内卷初心未变 2025.12.17 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 将反内卷进行到底 2026 年 1 月 7 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 投资要点： 首选股票 评级 反内卷扭转煤炭市场预期。2025 年以来，煤炭股受累于煤价下 降，108 号文流向市场后，煤炭股悲观预期随即得到显著缓释。从 核心宏观目标来说，反内卷主要是为了扭转通缩趋势，传导链条为 "通缩→反内卷→盈利提升→通胀"。对煤炭而言，短期看供给控 制，中长期看需求复苏。反内卷需要上下游维持合理利润。"政策 顶"和"政策底"推动合理煤价中枢逐步形成。2016 年供给侧改革 和 2024 年山西查三超是反内卷运动的可比事件，底层驱动影响调 控效果，供给侧改革是债务驱动，山西查三超是安全生产驱动。 ...

Group 1 - The majority of Hong Kong automotive stocks experienced an increase, with Feishang Non-Ferrous Coal (01738.HK) rising over 33% [1] - Shougang Resources (00639.HK) saw an increase of over 8% [1] - China Qinfa (00866.HK) rose more than 5% [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) and Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK) both increased by nearly 4% [1]

Group 1 - The coal stocks have generally risen, with notable increases in companies such as Shougang Resources (up 7.64% to HKD 3.24), China Qinfa (up 5.23% to HKD 3.02), Yanzhou Coal (up 4.57% to HKD 10.53), and China Coal Energy (up 3.65% to HKD 10.78) [1] - On January 7, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's main contract for coking coal hit the limit up at CNY 1164 per ton, reflecting a 7.98% increase, while the main contract for coke rose by 6.7% to CNY 1752 per ton [1] - Guohai Securities forecasts an improvement in the supply-demand relationship in the coal industry by 2026, with expected increases in coal price averages, projecting the northern port thermal coal price to stabilize around CNY 750 and the main coking coal price around CNY 1550, indicating potential recovery in industry profitability [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities reported that Shougang Resources primarily engages in coking coal mining and the production and sale of raw and refined coking coal, with three active coal mines in Shanxi Province, each with a capacity of 1.75 million tons per year, totaling 5.25 million tons [1] - The company exhibits a conservative and stable operational approach, as indicated by its expense ratio and debt-to-asset ratio, while demonstrating strong profitability reflected in its gross and net profit margins [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a strong performance in coal stocks, with Feishang Anthracite rising by 33% [1] - Shougang Resources and Mongol Mining both increased by over 5% [1] - Companies such as Power Development, Yida Commodity, and Yanzhou Coal Mining rose by more than 3% [1] - China Coal Energy, China Qinfa, and South Gobi also experienced gains of over 2% [1]

Group 1 - The coal sector in the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant gains, with notable increases in various coal stocks [1] - Feishang Anthracite Coal surged by 33%, while Shougang Resources and Mongol Mining rose over 5% [1] - Coking coal futures hit a limit up with an 8% increase, reaching 1164 yuan/ton, and coking coal main contracts rose over 7% to 1757 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Feishang Anthracite Coal's latest price is 0.140 yuan, with a total market value of 193 million yuan and a year-to-date increase of 37.25% [2] - Shougang Resources has a latest price of 3.190 yuan, a market value of 16.24 billion yuan, and a year-to-date increase of 8.87% [2] - Mongol Mining's latest price is 11.570 yuan, with a market value of 11.996 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 9.77% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) opened at a slight decline of 0.17%, indicating a mixed performance among its major holdings [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) opened at 1.192 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.17% [1] - Since its establishment on June 25, 2015, the fund has achieved a return of 19.49%, with a recent one-month return of 0.29% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - China Shenhua opened with an increase of 0.54% [1] - China Petroleum experienced a decline of 1.17% [1] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry rose by 0.90% [1] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation fell by 0.65% [1] - CNOOC saw a decrease of 1.14% [1] - Jereh Group dropped by 0.74% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company increased by 1.11% [1] - Guanghui Energy remained unchanged at 0.00% [1] - China Coal Energy rose by 0.69% [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal increased significantly by 3.95% [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs downgraded Baosteel and China Aluminum while upgrading Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy [1] - ByteDance's "Doubao" AI glasses are rumored to be released, but the company clarified there are no concrete sales plans [1][3] - The market's reaction to news is often driven by underlying capital movements rather than the news itself [1][4] Group 2 - Shareholders of various companies, including Pioneer Technology and Baichuan Energy, plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% [3] - Significant share unlocks are occurring, with Baichuan Energy's unlock amount estimated at 96.319 billion yuan, accounting for 72.20% of total shares [3] - The electric vehicle market is expected to see only a 13% growth in global sales by 2026, influenced by various regulatory changes [3] Group 3 - The perception of stock price movements can be misleading; declines may indicate institutional accumulation rather than weakness [4][9] - Data analysis reveals that stocks experiencing "capital grabbing" often show signs of future price increases [5][6] - Institutions may use price declines as opportunities to accumulate shares, contrary to public sentiment [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The development of the A-share market in Shandong has significantly contributed to the high-quality economic growth of the region, with a notable increase in both the number and market capitalization of listed companies over the past 32 years [1][7]. Group 1: Historical Development - The first A-share company in Shandong, Qingdao Beer, was listed in 1993, marking the beginning of a rapid expansion in the region's capital market [5]. - By the end of 1993, the market capitalization of Shandong listed companies was 9.6 billion yuan, which has grown to 4.79 trillion yuan by December 2025 [5][1]. - The number of A-share companies in Shandong reached 310 by 2023, with a market capitalization of 3.46 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in both quantity and quality [7]. Group 2: Economic Contributions - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shandong A-share companies collectively achieved revenue of 2.30 trillion yuan, contributing to regional economic development [1][11]. - The total market capitalization of Shandong state-owned A-share companies reached 1.85 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of the overall market capitalization of the Shandong sector [10]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - In 2025, Shandong A-share companies reported a net profit of 737 billion yuan, representing 46% of the total net profit of the Shandong sector [10]. - Among the 310 listed companies, 251 were profitable, with 63 companies achieving profit growth year-on-year [11][10]. Group 4: Innovation and R&D - Shandong listed companies have increased their R&D investments, with 173 companies reporting a year-on-year increase in R&D expenses in 2025 [12]. - Notable companies such as Haier Smart Home and Weichai Power have significantly increased their R&D expenditures, with Haier reaching 10.74 billion yuan [13][14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The continuous growth and innovation of Shandong listed companies are expected to drive further economic development and industrial upgrades in the region [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) has received preliminary approval for an environmental impact assessment for its coal gangue backfill project at the Shilaowusu coal mine, with a total investment of 384 million yuan [1] - The "A-share Green Report" project aims to enhance transparency in environmental information of listed companies, utilizing authoritative environmental regulatory data from 31 provinces and 337 cities [1] - The project involves monitoring the environmental performance of listed companies and their subsidiaries, providing professional data analysis and insights, and regularly updating environmental risk rankings [1] Group 2 - The previous issue of the A-share Green Weekly Report indicated that four listed companies recently exposed environmental risks [3]

广发证券发布研报称，十四五煤价中枢大幅上移，十五五煤炭业有望迎来新周期，价值凸显。总体来 看，行业景气度正在改善，十五五有望稳中向好。该行认为26年煤炭价格中枢有望提升至750元/吨左 右，龙头公司股息率多为4-6%水平，优势明显。尤其在煤价悲观预期扭转后，估值弹性有望显现。 煤炭股集体走高，截至发稿，中煤能源（601898）(01898)涨4.94%，报10.41港元；兖矿能源（600188） (01171)涨2.87%，报10.03港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)涨2.88%，报40.02港元。 消息面上，11月下旬以来，港口动力煤价格持续单边下跌，从高点834元/吨跌至低点670元/吨，并在12 月31日终迎反弹，单日上涨8元/吨至678元/吨。长江证券认为，本次反弹核心驱动在于供给年末收缩与 需求边际改善的共振，叠加政策托底预期强化。尽管高库存环境、元旦后煤矿逐步复产、终端采购谨慎 心态或仍共同制约煤价反弹力度，然而价格下行有底得以体现，叠加岁末年初险资有望增配煤炭板块， 当前时点建议继续重视煤炭红利配置机会。 ...