从年度经济会议展望 2026 年消费趋势 20251214 摘要 2026 年需求端预计稳定，CPI 大概率上行，消费行业或有绝对收益，收 益大小取决于价格弹性。服务业预计优于大众消费，大众消费优于高端 消费。食品饮料大众品已企稳，高端白酒面临去库存压力。 短期看好旅游出行，元旦春节假期延长及春秋假推动旅游行业增长。黄 金珠宝短期景气，金价稳定则公司业绩增长可观。关注高分红标的如行 动教育、重庆百货及特来股份。 预计 2026 年国补政策延续，总金额或超预期。家电板块虽今年表现不 佳，但明年补贴资金预计与今年相当或略增。家电及相关产品预计获约 1,000 亿补贴，前景乐观。 预计 2026 年手机市场规模约 6,000 亿元，引导向高附加值产品。传统 家电和四大品类将继续获补贴，扫地机器人等高附加值产品也有望获补 贴。 预计 2026 年宏观经济环境总体稳健，前低后高。上半年或有压力，下 半年减小，一季度到二季度后或迎拐点。若两会后房地产市场有积极表 述，将带动需求。 Q&A 中央经济工作会议对内需和消费的重视体现在哪些方面？ 会议强调了内需的重要作用，特别是提振消费专项行动的实施，并制定了乡村 居民增收计划 ...

歌尔深耕智能硬件研制20余年，在声学、光学、微电子等领域拥有核心技术优势，并在智能制造持续创 新，为全球客户提供精密零组件与AI+智能整机从研发到量产的一站式服务。海尔集团是全球领先的美 好生活和数字化转型解决方案服务商，自创业以来始终坚持以原创科技引领行业发展趋势，目前布局智 慧住居生态、大健康产业生态和数字经济产业生态三大赛道，连续16年位居全球大型家电品牌零售量榜 首。 12月11日，歌尔集团与海尔集团正式签署战略合作协议，双方将聚焦智能家电、工业互联网、新能源及 人工智能等领域展开深度合作。歌尔集团董事长姜滨、海尔集团董事局主席、首席执行官周云杰出席见 证签约，并展开深入的交流与探讨。 围绕海尔集团智慧住居、大健康、数字经济三大业务板块布局，结合歌尔在精密零组件、智能硬件以及 智能制造等领域的经验沉淀和先进技术，双方将共同聚焦智能家电、工业互联网、新能源及人工智能等 领域，推动研发协同与成果转化，落地技术攻关项目，开展全场景务实合作，携手共筑智慧美好生活。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry, indicating an expectation of returns that outperform the market benchmark by over 5% [5][13]. Core Insights - The optimization and continuation of the "Two New" policies are expected to activate greater consumer potential in the home appliance sector. The policies aim to stimulate demand through measures such as large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs [8]. - The domestic sales driven by government subsidies are showing marginal slowdown, but the ongoing policies are anticipated to provide sustained demand stimulation in both product and service consumption [8]. - The report highlights that the impact of Mexico's proposed tariffs on Chinese home appliance companies is limited, as the revenue contribution from this market is relatively small [8]. - The market share of Miniled TVs is on the rise, with RGB-Miniled technology expected to lead the next generation of display technology upgrades, enhancing the competitive edge of Chinese brands in the global market [8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Domestic sales are expected to benefit from the "Two New" policy, with leading white goods companies likely to gain more from trade-in programs due to their higher efficiency and mature management processes [3]. - Key investment themes include: - Leading companies with higher operational efficiency and mature overseas production layouts, such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Visual, are recommended for stable allocation [3]. - The long-term focus on overseas expansion is emphasized, with Stone Technology highlighted as a potential beneficiary [3]. - Companies with stable core business performance and potential for a second growth curve, such as Anfu Technology, are also noted [3].

Market Performance - The main board saw significant gains with notable stocks such as Copper Peak Electronics (+10.04%), Xilong Science (+10.00%), and Dongfang Communication (+9.98%) leading the charge [1] - The ChiNext board experienced a surge, highlighted by Guoci Materials (+20.02%) and LianTe Technology (+15.87%) [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board also performed well, with Jingfeng Mingyuan (+20.00%) and Yandong Micro (+16.84%) among the top gainers [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Electronic Chemicals III (+4.36%) and SW Semiconductor Equipment (+3.55%) [1] Domestic News - Taiwan's Industrial Technology Research Institute announced the development of the region's first full-color high-resolution Micro LED AI smart glasses, featuring a 0.49-inch display with 1920x1080 FULL HD resolution and over 3000 nits brightness [1] - Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Guoxing Aerospace signed an agreement to establish China's first space computing joint laboratory, focusing on autonomous space computing chip development and related technologies [1] - Goer Group and Haier Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement to collaborate on smart home, health, and digital economy sectors, leveraging Goer's expertise in precision components and smart manufacturing [1] - According to BCI's report, Huawei's smartphone market share is projected to reach 27.81% by the 48th week of 2025, significantly ahead of Apple's 17.12% [1] Company Announcements - Electric Science and Technology Network announced a significant decrease in expected daily related transactions for 2026, with actual transactions for 2025 being 283.25 million yuan compared to an expected 1.17385 billion yuan [3] - Chip Origin announced progress in acquiring Zhudian Semiconductor, with a capital increase of 350 million yuan for the acquisition [3] - Yunding Technology projected daily related transactions for 2026 to be approximately 1.355 billion yuan, with actual transactions expected to be around 1.484 billion yuan [3] - Aisino Security reported receiving a government subsidy of 1 million yuan, classified as a revenue-related government grant [3] International News - Dell plans to increase prices for its commercial product line by approximately 10%-30% starting December 17, depending on computer configuration [1] - STMicroelectronics secured a new credit line of 1 billion euros from the European Investment Bank, with 60% allocated for enhancing manufacturing capabilities [1] - SK Hynix ordered seven sets of thermal compression bonding machines from ASMPT for HBM4 production, a critical technology for ensuring product yield and performance [1] - Kioxia plans to start producing next-generation NAND flash memory chips in Iwate Prefecture in 2026, increasing storage capacity by 59% and data transfer speed by 33% [1]

当前的家电行业已经是存量竞争。在这个存量竞争市场中，企业习惯通过价格战、营销战抢夺份额。这就意味着，企业需要增加销售费用，通过牺牲利润的 方式获取市场。 但是，海尔智家却给出了一份完全不同的答卷：4年营收、利润分别增长了588亿元、57亿元，销售费用却下降了30亿元。那么，海尔智家这"两升一降"是怎 么做到的？ 盘子大了、利润多了，费用投入的绝对值却低了 很多人喜欢拿海尔智家的费率和行业进行对比。其实，在营收和利润均增长的情况下，海尔智家费率是不断下降的，费用绝对值也处于下降通道中。 公开的财报数据显示，2021年海尔智家营收2271亿元，2024年营收2859亿元，4增长了588亿元；2021年利润130.67亿元，2024年利润187.41亿元，4年增长了 约57亿元。 图：海尔智家2021-2024年营收、利润和费用 与此同时，海尔智家的销售费率却从2021年的16.1%下降至2024年11.7%，下降了4.4pct。不仅销售费率下降，销售费用也是下降的。销售费用从2021年的 365亿元降到了2024年的335亿元，降了30亿元。 图：海尔智家2021-2024年销售费率 以上数据说明，海尔智家在营收 ...

北京商报讯（记者 陶凤 王天逸）12月13日，海尔集团宣布，与歌尔集团正式签署战略合作协议，双方 将聚焦智能家电、工业互联网、新能源及人工智能等领域展开深度合作。 ...

文 | 《BUG》栏目 周文猛 近日，海尔、美的、小米、 TCL 等多家企业联合发声将遵守空调《空调铝强化应用研究工 作组自律公约》（下称"自律公约"），表态将全面认同并严格遵守公约各项条款，共同维 护行业整体形象与竞争力，为空调"铝代铜"技术突破与高质量发展注入动力。 值得注意的是，此次发声遵守"自律公约"的企业中，除了格力电器外，其他头部空调企业 均悉数到场。今年以来，格力电器先后多次表态"没有空调'铝代铜'计划"，在行业集体发声 遵循"自律公约"并有序推动"铝代铜"的背景下，格力的做法有些格格不入。 在与《 BUG 》栏目沟通中，格力最新回应称："目前没有'铝代铜'计划，铜材在导热性、 耐腐蚀性和长期可靠性方面具有优势，在没有 100% 把握之前，格力空调不会铝代铜"。 一方面，是整个空调行业对于"铝代铜"进展的热切观望，另一方面，却是头部厂商明确表 态"没有把握"。空调行业的"铝代铜"推进工作，道阻且长。 美的、海尔等共推"铝代铜" 格力却"缺席"了 近日举办的 2025 中国家电科技年会上，空调领域"铝代铜"创新应用及产业标准落地成为 一大重点。大会期间，由海尔、海信等企业参与的《房间空调器用铝管翅 ...

文丨《BUG》栏目 周文猛 近日，海尔、美的、小米、TCL等多家企业联合发声将遵守空调《空调铝强化应用研究工作组自律公 约》（下称"自律公约"），表态将全面认同并严格遵守公约各项条款，共同维护行业整体形象与竞争 力，为空调"铝代铜"技术突破与高质量发展注入动力。 值得注意的是，此次发声遵守"自律公约"的企业中，除了格力电器外，其他头部空调企业均悉数到场。 今年以来，格力电器先后多次表态"没有空调'铝代铜'计划"，在行业集体发声遵循"自律公约"并有序推 动"铝代铜"的背景下，格力的做法有些格格不入。 在与《BUG》栏目沟通中，格力最新回应称："目前没有'铝代铜'计划，铜材在导热性、耐腐蚀性和长 期可靠性方面具有优势，在没有100%把握之前，格力空调不会铝代铜"。 一方面，是整个空调行业对于"铝代铜"进展的热切观望，另一方面，却是头部厂商明确表态"没有把 握"。空调行业的"铝代铜"推进工作，道阻且长。 美的、海尔等共推"铝代铜"，格力却"缺席"了 近日举办的2025中国家电科技年会上，空调领域"铝代铜"创新应用及产业标准落地成为一大重点。大会 期间，由海尔、海信等企业参与的《房间空调器用铝管翅式热交换器生产线建设 ...

进入冬季以来，山东的消费市场依然保持活跃。淄博泉龙社区的以旧换新服务台前，居民咨询家电 补贴政策；青岛啤酒博物馆内，游客体验工业旅游与文创产品；济南老商埠数字导览屏前，年轻人扫码 解锁传统商圈新玩法。 从社区"焕新便利"到城市商圈"品质升级"，从本土企业"订单扩容"到产业生态"链式升级"，山东 以"以旧换新"与"实体筑基"双向发力，为实体经济高质量发展注入活力。 每天近3000人申请汽车更新 汽车与家电作为核心赛道的表现尤为亮眼。截至10月31日，全省汽车报废更新申请47.8万辆、置换 更新申请43.1万辆，相当于每天近3000人申请汽车更新；家电领域同样成果丰硕，家电以旧换新销售新 家电1015.4万台，相当于每天3.3万人申请家电换新；3C数码产品购新补贴销售589.4万件，电动自行车 以旧换新114.4万辆，家装厨卫"焕新"18.7万件。 以旧换新让百姓省钱省力实现品质升级。山东深耕消费品以旧换新"进社区、进乡村、进企业"活动 超100场，设政策解读专区、产品展示区、免费维修服务区，让居民在"家门口"就能享受一站式服务。 聊城刘垓子镇集市上，日立、海尔、上汽大众等品牌直接"进驻"大集，村民无需往返城市门 ...

Group 1 - Since 2025, a total of 1,468 A-share listed companies have implemented share buybacks, with a cumulative buyback amount of 137.5 billion yuan [1] - Among these companies, 14 have repurchased more than 1 billion yuan, including Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, CATL, XCMG, Muyuan Foods, COSCO Shipping Holdings, WuXi AppTec, Hikvision, BOE Technology Group, SF Holding, Sanan Optoelectronics, Sany Heavy Industry, Guotai Junan, and Haier Smart Home [1] - Midea Group leads in buyback amount, with a total of 11.545 billion yuan [1]