Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 22.746 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.410 billion yuan, up 24.27% year-on-year [7] - The product structure has slightly shifted downwards, with accelerated development in online channels, achieving significant sales growth in e-commerce platforms [7] - The company is expected to generate revenues of 38.48 billion yuan, 45.26 billion yuan, and 53.21 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 17.6%, and 17.5% [8] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 1,219.96 million [6] - Total market capitalization: 215,726.27 million yuan [6] - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2023 to 2026: - 2023: Revenue 31,928 million yuan, Net Profit 10,438 million yuan - 2024E: Revenue 38,479 million yuan, Net Profit 12,909 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue 45,263 million yuan, Net Profit 15,472 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue 53,206 million yuan, Net Profit 18,382 million yuan [9] - Gross margin is projected to remain stable around 75.4% for the forecast period [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 22.75 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.41 billion yuan, up 24.3% year-on-year [4] - The company aims to reach a market target of over 50 billion yuan, with a comprehensive price increase strategy for its products and a focus on upgrading its marketing system [5] - The company has shown strong performance in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, with revenue from this category reaching 16.43 billion yuan, a 17.4% increase year-on-year, accounting for 72.2% of total revenue [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.41 billion yuan, a 17.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.15 billion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 76.7%, a 0.4 percentage point increase year-on-year, while Q2 saw a slight decline to 75.1% due to product structure adjustments [5] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on national expansion, particularly in core markets south of the Yangtze River, with revenue from these regions growing by 25.7% year-on-year [5] - The marketing strategy includes a comprehensive upgrade of the product line and a focus on high-end products, which have shown strong price advantages despite a weak consumption environment [5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 38.52 billion, 45.15 billion, and 52.03 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.7%, 17.2%, and 15.2% respectively [6] - Net profit projections for the same period are 13.25 billion, 16.26 billion, and 19.33 billion yuan, with growth rates of 26.9%, 22.7%, and 18.9% respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 7.408 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.06%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.147 billion yuan, up 10.23% year-on-year [4] - For the first half of 2024, total revenue reached 22.746 billion yuan, an increase of 19.65%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 8.410 billion yuan, up 24.27% year-on-year [4] - The revenue for Q2 2024 was in line with market expectations [4] Revenue Analysis - In Q2 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end and other liquor products grew by 1.5% and 58.3% year-on-year, respectively, with mid-to-high-end liquor's revenue share decreasing by 9.8 percentage points to 62.0% [5] - The company is expected to adjust its product structure during the off-season, with inventory reduction for the Qinghua series leading to a slowdown in growth [5] - Revenue from domestic and external markets grew by 11.2% and 21.8% year-on-year, respectively, with external revenue accounting for 62.0% of total revenue, an increase of 2.2 percentage points [5] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin in Q2 2024 decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 75.09%, primarily due to a shift in product structure [6] - The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was 29.13%, down 1.83 percentage points year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation, emphasizing the company's proactive inventory control to maintain channel health and the promotion of the "Fen Enjoy Benefits" model to enhance channel management [7] - The company aims to achieve a 20% revenue growth target for the year, which is considered highly credible [7] - Adjustments to profit forecasts have been made due to slower recovery in business scenarios influenced by the macro environment and a slight decline in product structure [7] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 38.415 billion yuan, 45.289 billion yuan, and 52.811 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.3%, 17.9%, and 16.6% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 12.900 billion yuan, 15.337 billion yuan, and 18.143 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 23.6%, 18.9%, and 18.3% [8]

公 司 研 究 山西汾酒（600809.SH） 2024 年 08 月 29 日 营收速度不弱，产品结构阶段性下移 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/29 | | 当前股价 ( 元 ) | 166.60 | | 一年最高最低 ( 元 ) | 273.68/158.18 | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 2,032.46 | | 流通市值 ( 亿元 ) | 2,032.46 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 12.20 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 12.20 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 29.81 | 股价走势图 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 山西汾酒 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《成长势能不减，业绩弹性持续—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.4.29 《三季度主动控货，市场良性发展— 公司信息更新报告》-2023.11.20 《基本面趋势良好，管理风波平稳过 渡 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 27 日 证券研究报告•2024 年中报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：175.74 元 山西汾酒（600809）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 青花系列主动控量，积极备战双节旺季 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024 年中报，上半年实现收入 227.5 亿元，同比+19.6%，归 母净利润 84.1亿元，同比+24.3%；其中 24Q2实现收入 74.1亿元，同比+17.1%， 归母净利润 21.5 亿元，同比+10.2%。 青花系列主动控量，玻汾系列接棒发力。1、在外部商务消费有所承压的背景下， 公司全产品矩阵协同发力，24Q1 青花系列等中高端产品放量高增，24Q2 玻汾 依托高性价比接棒发力，助力公司上半年收入实现平稳增长。2、分产品，24Q2 中高价白酒实现收入 45.7 亿元，同比+1.5%，预计主要系商务需求有所承压， 叠加公司对青花主动控量，帮助渠道消化库存；其他酒类实现收入 28.0亿元， 同比+58.3%，预计主要系玻汾性价比高，市场投放量有所加大。3、分区域， 24Q2 省内实现收入 28.0亿元，同比+ ...

事件 报表分析：24Q2 毛利率 75.09%（同比-2.7pct），税率 19.69%（同比-0.44pct）， 从侧面印证产品结构升级放缓，24Q2 现金回款 73.93 亿元，同比-6.29%，收现率 99.8%；24H1 合同负债 57.32 亿元，环比+1.4 亿元(+2.53%)，同比-0.22 亿元 （-0.38%），报表质量相对中性。 投资要点 收入分析：青花主动控货，产品结构略有下移。上半年公司实现营收 227.46 亿元， 来看： 为中秋国庆蓄力所致。 2）按区域：上半年山西省内收入 83.94 亿元，同比+11.36%（其中 Q1：+11.44%； Q2：+11.20%），省外收入 142.66 亿元，同比+25.68%（其中 Q1：+27.61%； Q2：+21.78%），省内稳健增长、省外贡献增量，发展节奏符合公司全年规划。 24H1 末公司经销商 4196 家，Q1/Q2 分别净增-222/478 家，我们预计与公司推进 汾享礼遇加强对经销商管理有关。 利润分析：结构变化毛利承压，销售费用出现季节波动。24Q2 利率 75.09%（同 比-2.7pct），税率 19.69%（同比- ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 8 月 29 日 600809.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 165.60 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 山西汾酒半年报业绩点评 股价表现 (28%) (19%) (11%) (2%) 6% 15% Aug-23Sep-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 山西汾酒 上证综指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (25.3) (9.2) (33.2) (29.5) 相对上证综指 (21.1) (7.3) (24.5) (21.1) 发行股数 (百万) 1,219.96 流通股 (百万) 1,219.96 总市值 (人民币 百万) 202,026.08 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 1,083.49 主要股东 山西杏花村汾酒集团有限责任公司 56.6289 资料来源：公司公告，Wind，中银证券 以 2024 年 8 月 28 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《山西汾酒》20240427 《山西汾酒》20240328 《山 ...

2024 年 8 月 29 日 公司研究 收入稳健增长，结构调整影响盈利 ——山西汾酒（600809.SH）2024 年中报点评 要点 事件：山西汾酒发布 2024 年中报，公司 24H1 实现总营收 227.46 亿元，同比 增加 19.65%，归母净利润 84.10 亿元，同比增加 24.27%，其中 Q2 单季总营 收 74.08 亿元，同比增加 17.06%，归母净利润 21.47 亿元，同比增加 10.23%， Q2 收入端符合此前市场预期，利润端略低于市场预期。 24Q2 收入端符合预期，产品节奏有所调整。二季度公司收入在去年同期基数较 高下实现稳健增长，亦基本符合市场此前预期。1）分产品类型看，24Q2 中高 价酒类/其他酒类实现销售收入 45.67/27.96 亿元，同比增长 1.51%/58.33%。 中高价酒类收入持平微增，青花系列在 Q1 放量表现亮眼、估计 Q2 有所控制， 全年维度预计青花系列任务完成度较高。100-300 元价位腰部产品发展势头较 好，六月老白汾酒 10 全新升级面市，公司对老白汾酒全系列开票价上涨 5 元、 且导入五码合一系统，当前市场环境下老白汾预期承担更多增量 ...

核心观点 ⚫ 公司发布 2024 年半年报，上半年实现营业收入 227.5 亿元，同比+19.6%；实现归 母净利润 84.1 亿元，同比+24.3%。单二季度来看，公司实现营业收入 74.1 亿元 （+17.1%），实现归母净利润 21.5 亿元（+10.2%）。 ⚫ 预计青花 20 主动控速以迎接中秋旺季，非青花阶段性放量。分产品，中高价酒类 24H1 实现收入 164 亿元（yoy+17%），其中 24Q2 实现收入 46 亿（yoy+2%）， Q2 增速放缓，预计因公司主动对青花 20 控量，稳价去库以迎接中秋旺季；其他酒 类 24H1 实现收入 62 亿（yoy+27%），其中 24Q2 实现收入 28 亿（yoy+58%）， 预计非青花系列放量，阶段性承担增量任务。分区域，省内 24H1 实现收入 84 亿 （yoy+11%），其中 24Q2 实现收入 28 亿（yoy+11%）；省外 24H1 实现收入 143 亿（yoy+26%），其中 24Q2 实现收入 46 亿（yoy+22%），省外维持高增，长江 以南市场稳步突破。24H1 末，公司经销商数量为 4196 家，环比 Q1 末增加 478 ...

核心观点 ⚫ 公司发布 2024 年半年报，上半年实现营业收入 227.5 亿元，同比+19.6%；实现归 母净利润 84.1 亿元，同比+24.3%。单二季度来看，公司实现营业收入 74.1 亿元 （+17.1%），实现归母净利润 21.5 亿元（+10.2%）。 ⚫ 预计青花 20 主动控速以迎接中秋旺季，非青花阶段性放量。分产品，中高价酒类 24H1 实现收入 164 亿元（yoy+17%），其中 24Q2 实现收入 46 亿（yoy+2%）， Q2 增速放缓，预计因公司主动对青花 20 控量，稳价去库以迎接中秋旺季；其他酒 类 24H1 实现收入 62 亿（yoy+27%），其中 24Q2 实现收入 28 亿（yoy+58%）， 预计非青花系列放量，阶段性承担增量任务。分区域，省内 24H1 实现收入 84 亿 （yoy+11%），其中 24Q2 实现收入 28 亿（yoy+11%）；省外 24H1 实现收入 143 亿（yoy+26%），其中 24Q2 实现收入 46 亿（yoy+22%），省外维持高增，长江 以南市场稳步突破。24H1 末，公司经销商数量为 4196 家，环比 Q1 末增加 478 ...