昨天下午，2025年上海市民营经济人士理想信念报告会暨主题活动举行。活动以"初心如炬 智创未 来"为主题，旨在为上海民营经济人士搭建思想交流、经验分享的平台。春秋集团党委书记、董事长王 正华，黑湖科技创始人兼首席执行官周宇翔，上海道客网络科技有限公司创始人兼首席执行官陈齐彦， 上海太屋国际集团创始人兼CEO杨彬等企业家先后作TED演讲，既回望了创业初心，生动诠释企业家精 神与责任担当，也分享了对行业瓶颈和未来发展的深度思考。 市政协副主席、市工商联主席寿子琪出席。 记者 胡幸阳 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Chinese Aviation Industry Industry Overview - The Chinese aviation industry is currently in the early stages of a super cycle, driven by a demographic dividend that continues to boost demand for air travel, alongside an increased willingness to travel post-pandemic, despite no significant improvement in the macroeconomic environment [1][4][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Price Adjustments**: The marketization of ticket prices has largely been completed, with full ticket prices on major routes increased by 50%-70% [1][3]. - **Fleet Growth**: During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, fleet growth has significantly slowed to single digits (2%-3%), alleviating investment pressure in third and fourth-tier cities, which is beneficial for enhancing industry profitability [1][3]. - **Demand and Supply Dynamics**: Since 2019, the passenger load factor in the Chinese aviation industry has significantly improved, with some routes nearing capacity limits. Future improvements in supply and demand will be reflected more in ticket prices, as the industry enters a low supply growth phase due to airspace bottlenecks and slow recovery in aircraft manufacturing capacity [1][8]. - **Long-term Growth**: By 2025, the Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a phase of increasing supply, which is projected to last for 15 years, achieved through optimized airspace management, controlled aircraft introduction rates, improved fleet turnover efficiency, and increased passenger load factors [1][6][7]. Investment Opportunities - **Profitability Outlook**: The aviation sector is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability and valuation over the next two years, with a high probability of turning profitable by 2025 and potentially achieving profit margins higher than those in 2019 by 2026 [2][13]. - **Valuation Potential**: The traditional airline valuation could rise from 8-10 times earnings to 15-20 times during this super cycle, indicating significant investment potential despite recent stock price increases [2][14]. - **Recommended Airlines**: Key airlines to focus on include: - **Air China**: Strong network and quality of passenger sources, optimistic long-term profitability outlook [15]. - **Juneyao Airlines**: Expected to release significant profit potential in the next two years [17]. - **China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines**: Both have substantial slot resources in the trunk market, poised to benefit from the super cycle [17]. - **Spring Airlines**: Leading profit margins and valuations in key markets, expected to maintain steady growth [17]. Additional Insights - **Passenger Load Factor**: The passenger load factor has reached levels between 88% and 90% during peak periods, indicating efficient utilization of existing seat resources [8]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Despite the lack of significant macroeconomic improvement, strong air travel demand persists due to the ongoing super cycle and increased travel willingness post-pandemic [4][10]. - **Strategic Timing for Investment**: The current period is viewed as an optimal time for strategic investment in the aviation sector, with expectations of continued demand growth and recovery in business travel [12]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the robust growth potential and investment opportunities within the Chinese aviation industry, driven by structural changes and favorable market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines' controlling shareholder, Shanghai Spring International Travel Service (Group) Co., Ltd., has pledged part of its shares to two trust companies, indicating a strategic financial maneuver [2] Group 1 - The controlling shareholder holds a total of 504,000,000 shares in Spring Airlines [2] - On October 17 and October 20, 2025, the controlling shareholder pledged 9,600,000 shares and 2,200,000 shares to Zhongyuan Trust Co., Ltd. and Yunnan International Trust Co., Ltd., respectively [2] - The relevant procedures for the share pledges have been completed [2]

股票代码：601021 股票简称：春秋航空 公告编号：2025-055 春秋航空股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 春秋航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）控股股东上海春秋国际旅行社 （集团）有限公司（以下简称"春秋国旅"）持有公司股份数量为 504,000,000 股， 占公司总股本的比例为 51.52%；春秋国旅累计质押公司股份数量（含本次）为 45,400,000 股，占其所持公司股份数量的 9.01%，占公司总股本的比例为 4.64%。 公司于 2025 年 10 月 21 日收到公司控股股东春秋国旅的通知，获悉春秋国旅 已于 2025 年 10 月 17 日、2025 年 10 月 20 日将其所持公司部分无限售条件流通股 股份质押给中原信托有限公司和云南国际信托有限公司，相关手续已办理完成。具 体事项如下： | 股东 | 是否为 | 本次质 | 是否 | 是否 | 质押起 | | 质押到 | | 占其所持 | 占公司总 | 质押融 | | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic airline ticket prices in September showed a year-on-year increase driven by improved supply and demand dynamics, with expectations for a turning point in Q4 2025 as the supply-demand gap narrows [1] Industry Dynamics - In September, the demand for air travel benefited from increased passenger flow and longer flight distances, resulting in a higher growth rate than supply. The passenger load factor for both domestic and international routes reached record highs [1] - The six listed airlines in A-shares reported a combined ASK/RPK growth of +4.0%/+7.1% year-on-year in September, with domestic passenger load factors reaching 87.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level for September in history [1] - For international routes, the supply growth rate slowed, leading to a widening gap with demand growth. The ASK/RPK for international routes increased by +8.7%/+13.6% year-on-year, with a passenger load factor increase of 3.5 percentage points [1] Aircraft Utilization and Pricing - The aircraft utilization rate in September remained high at 7.8 hours, with narrow-body aircraft showing a slight increase of +0.4% year-on-year [2] - The domestic passenger load factor for the six airlines reached 87.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, and 3.9 percentage points compared to 2019, achieving a historical high [2] - Domestic economy class ticket prices increased by +0.6% year-on-year, while international ticket prices decreased by -15.2% [2] Fleet Expansion - The fleet of the six listed airlines grew by 0.3% month-on-month, with a total of 3,340 aircraft managed as of September 2025, reflecting a net increase of 11 aircraft [3] - The main aircraft types introduced were narrow-body models, including 19 new narrow-body aircraft in September [3] Investment Targets - Key companies to watch include China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), Air China (601111.SH), China Southern Airlines (600029.SH), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the airline sector, highlighting the potential for price recovery driven by improved supply-demand dynamics [6][10]. Core Insights - In September 2025, the airline industry experienced a significant increase in passenger load factors, with domestic and international routes reaching record highs. The combined ASK/RPK for six listed airlines grew by 4.0% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the tight supply-demand relationship, with a notable recovery in business travel demand contributing to price increases. The domestic passenger load factor reached 87.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level for September in history [4][13]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering a critical phase where supply constraints may lead to sustained price improvements, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][24]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors and Pricing - The report indicates that high passenger load factors in September have led to price increases, with domestic economy class ticket prices rising by 2.4% year-on-year. International ticket prices, however, saw a decline of 15.2% [4][13]. - The domestic load factor for the six airlines reached 87.3%, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2019, reflecting strong demand recovery [4][12]. Fleet Expansion - The total fleet of the six listed airlines increased by 0.3% in September 2025, with a net addition of 11 aircraft. The primary models introduced were the A320 and B737 series [5][24]. - China National Airlines led the fleet expansion with a net increase of 5 aircraft, while Eastern Airlines added 2 aircraft during the same period [26][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on the sustainability of price improvements in the fourth quarter, particularly for business routes. The recovery in business travel is expected to enhance investor sentiment in the sector [5][24]. - Key airlines to watch include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others [5][6].

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a significant increase of 3.27% on October 20, with China Eastern Airlines leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.78, up 6.70%, with a trading volume of 3.0187 million shares and a turnover of 1.412 billion [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 6.60, up 6.28%, with a trading volume of 1.7359 million shares and a turnover of 1.122 billion [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) saw a decline of 0.85%, closing at 15.20, with a trading volume of 130,300 shares [2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 757 million in main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 534 million [2][3] - Southern Airlines had a net inflow of 184 million from main funds, but a net outflow of 134 million from retail investors [3] - China Eastern Airlines recorded a net inflow of 150 million from main funds, with a net outflow of 147 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines' stock price has shown a slight decline of 2.88% year-to-date, but has recently experienced a rebound with a 6.24% increase over the past five trading days, indicating potential recovery in investor sentiment [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 10.304 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.35%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.11% to 1.169 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, Spring Airlines has distributed a total of 2.83 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.899 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On October 20, Spring Airlines' stock rose by 2.03%, reaching 54.80 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 259 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.49%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 53.613 billion yuan [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 22.4623 million yuan, with significant buying activity from large orders, indicating strong interest from institutional investors [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Spring Airlines was 21,000, a decrease of 7.43% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 8.02% to 46,551 shares [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 22.713 million shares, an increase of 545,500 shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates a downward trend in the total flight schedule volume for domestic airlines in the 2025 winter-spring season, both year-on-year and month-on-month, suggesting a potential for price recovery due to supply constraints and high load factors [1][2]. Group 1: Seasonal Overview - The total flight schedule volume for domestic airlines in the 2025 winter-spring season shows a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a month-on-month decrease of 3%, while still being 15% higher than the 2019 winter-spring season [2]. - International flight schedule volume has limited growth, with a 2% increase compared to the 2024 winter-spring season, reaching 75% of the 2019 levels [2]. - The planned schedule volume for domestic airlines in Asia, Europe, Oceania, the Middle East, North America, and Africa has recovered to 79%, 126%, 81%, 171%, 26%, and 267% of the 2019 levels, respectively [2]. Group 2: Domestic Route Dynamics - The overall flight schedule volume is declining, with only five-tier cities showing significant growth, which increased by 4.6% [3]. - The Civil Aviation Administration has limited the release of flight slots in first-tier cities, leading to stable schedule volumes in these areas [3]. - Airlines are likely reducing schedules in less profitable lower-tier cities while increasing flights in five-tier cities, particularly in Xinjiang due to favorable subsidy policies [3][4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major airlines are reducing their presence in lower-tier markets, which may enhance their revenue quality; for instance, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines have decreased their schedule volumes in lower-tier cities by 3%, 5%, and 4%, respectively [5]. - The proportion of core city flight schedules for major airlines is significant, with Air China at 82%, China Eastern at 80%, and Spring Airlines at 74% [5]. - Huaxia Airlines is increasing its schedule volume by 5.2%, primarily in second and five-tier cities, benefiting from recovery in capacity and subsidies [6]. Group 4: Strategic Investments - Spring Airlines and Hainan Airlines are focusing on increasing their flight schedules in second to five-tier cities, with Spring Airlines showing growth rates of 6.27% to 31.46% across various city tiers [7]. - Hainan Airlines is also increasing its flight schedules in first, second, and five-tier cities, indicating a dual benefit from demand and subsidy policies [7].

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines (XD春秋航) has shown a positive trend in its stock price and operational metrics, indicating growth potential in the airline sector despite some fluctuations in passenger and cargo metrics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 17, 2025, Spring Airlines' stock closed at 53.71 CNY, up 1.44% from the previous week [1]. - The stock reached a peak price of 54.24 CNY during the week and a low of 51.6 CNY on October 13 [1]. - The company's total market capitalization is 52.546 billion CNY, ranking 6th in the aviation and airport sector and 310th among all A-shares [1]. Group 2: Operational Metrics - In September 2025, Spring Airlines operated 134 Airbus A320 aircraft with no new additions [2]. - The available ton-kilometers decreased by 10.69% month-on-month but increased by 32.25% year-on-year, with international capacity growing by 32.75% year-on-year [2]. - Passenger turnover was 483,492.09 million kilometers, showing a 12.64% decrease month-on-month but a 22.87% increase year-on-year [2]. - Total passenger numbers reached 2.7763 million, down 13.19% month-on-month but up 24.34% year-on-year, with international passenger numbers increasing by 31.99% year-on-year [2]. - The passenger load factor was 91.84%, up 1.32 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. Group 3: Cargo Metrics - The cargo and mail transport volume was 9,544.11 tons, reflecting a 25.87% increase month-on-month and a 20.83% increase year-on-year [3][5]. - The comprehensive load factor was 81.01%, down 6.10 percentage points year-on-year [4].