中国神华 20250324 摘要 中国神华在 2024 年度实现归母净利润 586.7 亿元，同比下降 1.7%。第四季度 的归母净利润为 126 亿元，同比增长 10%，环比下降 24%。扣非后的归母净利润 为 601.3 亿元，同比下降 4.4%。第四季度扣非后的归母净利润为 140.9 亿元， 同比下降 6.4%，环比下降 14.9%。全年 ROE 为 13.7%，同比仅下降 0.9 个百分 点。公司拟分配现金股利 449 亿元，或每股 2.26 元，分红比例从 2023 年的 75.2%提升至 76.5%。 公司的各业务板块在 2024 年的表现如何？ 2024 年，中国神华煤炭、发电、运输和煤化工板块的利润总额分别为 540.37 亿元、111.5 亿元、149.4 亿元和 0.4 亿元。煤炭板块同比下降 7.1%；发电板 块同比增长 4.7%；运输板块同比增长 11.2%；煤化工板块因生产设备检修导致 产量和销量减少，利润总额同比下降 80.5%。各业务板块的利润占比分别为 67%、 14%、19%和不到 1%。 四季度业绩下滑的原因是什么？ 四季度业绩环比下滑约 40 亿元，降幅约 24%，主要 ...

证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临 2025-019 中国神华能源股份有限公司 关于董事长辞任及授权代表变更的公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何 虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会于 2025 年 3 月 24 日收到 吕志韧先生递交的书面辞呈。因退休原因，吕志韧先生向本公司董事会请辞董事 长、执行董事职务，其董事会战略与投资委员会主席、委员，提名委员会委员、 薪酬与考核委员会委员职务也同时终止。吕志韧先生辞任未导致本公司董事会低 于法定最低人数，以上辞任即日生效。 特此公告。 1 承中国神华能源股份有限公司董事会命 总会计师、董事会秘书 吕志韧先生确认其与本公司董事会之间没有不一致意见，也没有因辞任而须 告知本公司股东及债权人的其他事宜。本公司董事会及吕志韧先生确认，没有因 其辞任而可能影响本公司及其附属公司营运的任何事宜。 吕志韧先生辞任后，提名委员会、薪酬与考核委员会成员人数由三人减少至 两人，低于董事会提名委员会、薪酬与考核委员会议事规则所规定人数。 ...

·证券研究报告 公司研究 公司点评报告 中国神华(601088) 上次评级 买入 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 中国神华：⼀体化战略夯实盈利根基，⾏业⻰头彰 显久期价值 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 24 日 事件： 2025 年 3 月 21 日 ，中国神华发布年度报告，2024 年公司实现营业收 入 3383.75 亿元，同比下降 1.37%，实现归母净利润 586.71 亿元，同比下降 1.71%；扣非后净利润 601.25 亿元，同比下降 4.36%。经营活动现金流量净额 933.48 亿元，同比上涨 4%；基本每股收益 2.95 元/股，同比下降 1.70%。资 产负债率为 23.42%，同比下降 0.66pct。 运输板块：2024 年公司铁路分部实现铁路周转量 31 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][19] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a high dividend yield, showcasing its investment value. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 338.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.67 billion yuan, down 1.7% [1][19] - The decline in coal prices has impacted profitability, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][19] Summary by Sections Coal Business - The company produced 327 million tons of commodity coal in 2024, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, with sales volume reaching 459 million tons, up 2.1% year-on-year. The average selling price for self-produced coal was 527 yuan per ton, down 21 yuan per ton year-on-year [2][13] - The coal segment's gross margin was 30%, a decline of 2 percentage points year-on-year due to falling coal prices [2][13] Power Business - The company generated and sold 223.21 billion and 210.28 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2024, respectively, both up by 5.2% and 5.3% year-on-year. The average selling price of electricity was 403 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 2.7% year-on-year [3][15] - The gross margin for the power segment was 16.3%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [3][16] Transportation Business - Revenue from the railway, port, and shipping segments was 43.1 billion, 6.8 billion, and 5 billion yuan, respectively, showing growth of 0.4%, 1.4%, and 3.3% year-on-year [4][16] - The overall operation remained stable, with significant project progress in railway expansions and port approvals [4][16] Dividend and Financial Metrics - The company distributed a cash dividend of 2.26 yuan per share in 2024, representing 76.5% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from 2023 [4][17] - The estimated net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be 53.6 billion, 54.4 billion, and 55.3 billion yuan, respectively, with earnings per share of 2.70, 2.74, and 2.78 yuan [5][19]

华福证券：煤价筑底叠加中国神华提分红 板块权益 更加乐观 华福证券发布研报称，节后煤矿复产加速，供给释放加快，供暖需求逐步退出且非电复产进度一 般，淡季库存累积下煤价持续回调，但已进入底部区域。当前核心标的股息率较为突出，中国神华 （601088）(601088.SH)2024分红比例再度提升，随着煤价企稳估值修复行情或将展开，权益更加乐 观。 动力煤 截至2025年3月21日，秦港5500K动力末煤平仓价671元/吨，周环比-10元/吨，产地价格大跌。晋陕 蒙三省煤矿开工率为82.6%，周环比+0.7pct。上周电厂日耗小涨，电厂库存小涨，动力煤库存指数小 涨，秦港库存持平。非电方面，甲醇开工率微跌、尿素开工率微跌，仍处于历史同期偏高水平，截至3 月20日，甲醇开工率为85.3%，周环比-0.8pct，年同比+3.4pct;截至3月19日，尿素开工率为87.1%，周环 比-0.7pct，年同比+3.4pct。 焦煤 截至3月21日，京唐港主焦煤库提价1380元/吨，周环比持平，山西产地价格大跌、河南及安徽产地 价格持平。铁水产量小涨，样本钢厂煤焦库存微跌。上周焦炭价格持平、螺纹钢价格小跌，截至3月21 日， ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is currently stabilizing, with a potential recovery in coal prices expected as supply increases and demand decreases, particularly in the context of China Shenhua's (601088.SH) increased dividend payout for 2024 [1] Coal Market Overview - As of March 21, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal is 671 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in production prices [2] - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 82.6%, up 0.7 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The methanol and urea operating rates are slightly down but remain historically high, with methanol at 85.3% (down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week) and urea at 87.1% (down 0.7 percentage points week-on-week) [2] Coking Coal Insights - As of March 21, the price of premium coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1380 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week, while prices in Shanxi have dropped significantly [3] - The operating rate of coking plants with capacities over 2 million tons is 76.4%, up 2.7 percentage points week-on-week [3] - The current energy transition and strict policies on capacity control are expected to keep coal in a favorable position, despite challenges in supply and production [3] Profitability and Cash Flow - Despite macroeconomic pressures and increased competition from renewable energy, coal prices are expected to remain high, supporting sustained profitability for coal companies [4] Investment Opportunities - Companies with strong resource endowments and stable performance, such as China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH), are recommended for investment due to their high dividend ratios [5] - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration, like Xinji Energy (601918.SH) and Shaanxi Energy (001286.SZ), are also highlighted for their ability to mitigate cyclical fluctuations [5] - Firms with production growth potential and sensitivity to coal price changes, such as Shanxi Coal International (600546.SH) and Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH), are suggested for investment [5] - Companies with globally scarce resources, like Huabei Mining (600985.SH) and Pingmei Shenma Energy (601666.SH), are also recommended due to their long-term supply constraints [5]

证券研究报告 中国神华 (1088 HK/601088 CH) 港股通 一体化协同驱动盈利稳健，高股息彰 显龙头担当 华泰研究 年报点评 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (人民币百万) | 343,074 | 338,375 | 328,566 | 331,479 | 332,236 | | +/-% | (0.42) | (1.37) | (2.90) | 0.89 | 0.23 | | 归属母公司净利润 (人民币百万) | 59,694 | 58,671 | 55,908 | 56,315 | 56,589 | | +/-% | (14.26) | (1.71) | (4.71) | 0.73 | 0.49 | | EPS (人民币，最新摊薄) | 3.00 | 2.95 | 2.81 | 2.83 | 2.85 | | ROE (%) | 14.88 | 14.04 | 12.93 | 12.70 | 12.44 | | PE (倍) | 12.19 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable profitability and an increased dividend payout ratio, highlighting its value as a dividend leader [1] - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of CNY 338.375 billion, down 1.4% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 58.671 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year [1][4] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% for the years 2025-2027, with a 2024 dividend payout of CNY 2.26 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.17% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production of 327 million tons, up 0.8% year-on-year, and coal sales of 459 million tons, up 2.1% year-on-year [2] - The company's coal business revenue was CNY 268.618 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year, with a total profit of CNY 54.365 billion, down 7.1% year-on-year [2] - The electricity business saw an increase in sales volume, leading to a gross profit growth, with total electricity sales of 210.28 billion kWh, up 5.3% year-on-year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 10.7% and 12.3% to CNY 54.293 billion and CNY 55.975 billion, respectively [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be CNY 2.73 and CNY 2.82, respectively [4][5] Dividend Policy - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 76.5% for 2024, with a corresponding annual dividend yield of 6.2% [3][4] - The board has proposed a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, ensuring a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with prices anticipated to rebound due to macroeconomic improvements and policy support [4][7] - The report highlights the resilience of the coal sector amidst price fluctuations and emphasizes the potential for profit recovery in the coal-coke-steel supply chain [4][7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: As of March 21, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 671 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton (-1.47%) from the previous week, while the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1380 CNY/ton [4][13] - **Supply and Demand**: The report notes a slight decrease in overall supply due to some coal mines halting production, while downstream demand is expected to increase as construction activities resume [4][36] - **Inventory Analysis**: The total inventory at major ports shows a mixed trend, with southern ports decreasing by 1.04% and northern ports increasing by 0.77% [4][43] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only 0.86% compared to a 1.60% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [4][57] 3. Recent Events - **Company Announcements**: China Shenhua reported a revenue of 338.375 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, while China Coal Energy reported a revenue of 189.399 billion CNY, down 1.9% year-on-year [4][62][63] - **Policy Developments**: The report mentions the government's initiatives to support the coal industry, including a focus on traditional industry upgrades and demand expansion [4][7]

➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 21 日，公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现营 业收入3383.75亿元，同比下降1.37%；归母净利润 586.71元，同比下降 1.71%； 扣非归母净利润 601.25 亿元，同比下降 4.36%。国际企业会计准则下，2024 年 公司实现归母净利润 624.21 亿元，同比下降 3.41%。 ➢ 非经项目捐赠支出影响业绩，24Q4 盈利同比增长、环比下降。2024 年公 司非经常性损益中对外捐赠支出 25.07 亿元，影响业绩释放。2024 年四季度， 公司实现营业收入 844.76 亿元，同环比-6.77%/-1.57%；归母净利润 125.97 亿 元，同环比+10.26%/-23.98%；扣非归母净利润 140.91 亿元，同环比-6.42%/- 14.87%。国际企业会计准则下，24Q4 公司实现归母净利润 118.52 亿元，同环 比-2.24%/-33.41%。 ➢ 2024 年分红比例 76.5%，A 股股息率 6.2%，H 股股息率 7.8%，2025- 2027 年承诺分红比例下限提升 5pct 至 65%。公司拟派发 2024 年度股 ...