Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [7] Core Insights - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is expected to drive oil prices higher, which historically correlates with an increase in coal prices due to their price linkage [1][12] - The coal chemical sector is experiencing significant demand growth, driven by the cost advantages of coal over oil in chemical production [2][39] - High temperatures and reduced water levels are anticipated to boost coal demand during the summer peak season [3][48] - Indonesia's coal production is projected to decline, which may improve the supply-demand balance for low-calorie coal in the market [4][53] - Despite a generally pessimistic market outlook for coal prices, there is a notable opportunity for price rebounds, particularly for undervalued coal companies [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Oil and Coal Price Dynamics - The Israel-Iran conflict has led to increased oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude futures rising by 7.0% and 7.3% respectively on June 13 [1][14] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between oil and coal prices, with an average oil-coal price ratio of 3.37 since 2000 [1][18] Section 2: Coal Chemical Demand - The coal chemical sector's demand growth reached 16.4% from January to May, significantly exceeding previous forecasts [2][41] - The profitability of coal-based ethylene glycol production is expected to improve, with projected profits turning positive by May 2025 [2][39] Section 3: Seasonal Demand Factors - The average national temperature in May was 17.1°C, 0.9°C higher than the previous year, indicating increased electricity demand [3][48] - A forecasted 9% decline in hydropower generation hours is expected to translate into an additional 0.3 million tons of coal demand [3][50] Section 4: Indonesian Coal Production - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decrease by 13% in 2025, leading to a potential 20% reduction in export volumes [4][53] - This reduction is anticipated to alleviate the oversupply of low-calorie coal in the Chinese market [4][53] Section 5: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The current market sentiment for coal prices is pessimistic, but there is a significant potential for price recovery [5] - Recommended companies include China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Jinneng Holding Group, all of which are considered undervalued with strong dividend yields [5][58]

2025 年 5 月，本公司煤炭销售量同比下降的主要原因，是下游煤炭需求偏 弱、受煤炭销售结算进度影响；航运货运量、周转量同比下降的主要原因，是业 务结构调整、航线结构变化；聚乙烯、聚丙烯销售量同比增长的主要原因，是上 年同期煤制烯烃生产设备按计划检修导致基数较低。 证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临 2025-028 中国神华能源股份有限公司 2025 年 5 月份主要运营数据公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （重述后） | | （%） | | | | | 月 5 | 累计 | 月 5 | 累计 | 月 5 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 1. 商品煤产量 | 百万吨 | 28.0 | 137.8 | 28.4 ...

Investment Strategy - Oil prices are expected to remain high due to limited supply and escalating geopolitical conflicts, particularly the recent Israel-Iran conflict which has led to a significant increase in oil prices [11][28][29] - Global oil and gas capital expenditures have been declining since 2015, with a notable reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [9][28] - The active rig count in the US remains low, which will slow down the release of oil and gas production capacity in the short term [9][28] Oil Market - Brent crude oil spot price increased to $70.96 per barrel, up 5.16% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil spot price rose to $67.89 per barrel, up 7.17% [11][30] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, pose a risk of supply disruptions, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport [11][29] Coal Market - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 609 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% week-on-week, indicating weak terminal demand [12][13] - The overall coal market is under pressure due to weak demand from the cement and non-electric industries, with procurement activities remaining slow [12][13] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have decreased, with the price for Jizhou coking coal reported at 1,310 RMB per ton, down 4.96% week-on-week, leading to increased losses for coking enterprises [14][15] - The supply of coking coal remains relatively ample, but demand from downstream steel mills is weak, contributing to a bearish market outlook [14][15] Natural Gas Market - Russia's natural gas exports to China are expected to increase by 7 billion cubic meters by 2025, driven by pipeline expansions [16] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas decreased to $3.55 per million British thermal units, down 4.7% week-on-week, while European gas prices have shown an upward trend [16][17] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is experiencing a recovery due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies aimed at boosting oil and gas production [18][19] - The global active rig count decreased to 1,576 units, indicating a slight contraction in drilling activities, particularly in the Middle East [19]

Financial Sector - The banking sector continued its upward trend in the afternoon session, contributing positively to the FTSE China A50 Index [1] - China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and China Ping An reported market capitalizations of 385.19 billion, 351.05 billion, and 989.18 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.155 billion, 2.698 billion, and 1.079 billion [4] Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of 1,786.68 billion, 210.10 billion, and 459.08 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 3.192 billion, 6.060 billion, and 1.760 billion [4] - Kweichow Moutai's stock price decreased by 4.66 (-0.33%), while Wuliangye increased by 1.12 (+0.65%) [4] Semiconductor Industry - Northern Huachuang, Haiguang Information, and Cambricon Technologies had market capitalizations of 220.29 billion, 249.45 billion, and 321.57 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.075 billion, 2.756 billion, and 2.048 billion [4] - Northern Huachuang's stock price fell by 7.35 (-1.22%) [4] Automotive Industry - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Shanghai-Kunming High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of 1,892.53 billion, 183.68 billion, and 281.32 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 3.509 billion, 0.627 billion, and 0.348 billion [4] - BYD's stock price decreased by 1.57 (-0.45%) [4] Energy Sector - COSCO Shipping Holdings, Sinopec, and China National Petroleum Corporation had market capitalizations of 716.56 billion, 1,650.85 billion, and 249.69 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.159 billion, 1.722 billion, and 1.019 billion [4] - Sinopec's stock price increased by 0.03 (+0.33%) [4] Coal Industry - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, China Shenhua Energy, and CATL had market capitalizations of 191.77 billion, 1,124.60 billion, and 775.67 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 3.014 billion, 0.922 billion, and 0.608 billion [4] - Shaanxi Coal's stock price decreased by 0.22 (-0.56%) [4] Food and Beverage Sector - China National Nuclear Power, Dongfang Fortune, and Haitian Flavoring had market capitalizations of 745.30 billion, 193.55 billion, and 343.42 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.574 billion, 0.521 billion, and 5.827 billion [5] - China National Nuclear Power's stock price decreased by 0.16 (-0.52%) [5] Consumer Electronics - Heng Rui Medicine, Industrial Fulian, and Luxshare Precision had market capitalizations of 355.01 billion, 421.40 billion, and 231.31 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 2.645 billion, 3.052 billion, and 2.100 billion [5] - Heng Rui's stock price increased by 0.32 (+1.53%) [5] Logistics Industry - Mindray Medical, SF Holding, and Wanhua Chemical had market capitalizations of 169.95 billion, 248.64 billion, and 286.88 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.343 billion, 0.896 billion, and 1.030 billion [5] - Mindray's stock price increased by 0.81 (+1.65%) [5] Telecommunications - Zijin Mining, China State Construction, and China Unicom had market capitalizations of 500.19 billion, 236.77 billion, and 164.76 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 2.515 billion, 0.784 billion, and 0.731 billion [5] - Zijin Mining's stock price decreased by 0.33 (-1.72%) [5]

金十图示：2025年06月16日（周一）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行股普涨、汽车整车板块领跌 富时中国A50指数连续 保险 账 中国人保 中国太保 中国平安 081 3803.26亿市值 3472.94亿市值 9855.38亿市值 14.94亿成交额 5.15亿成交额 5.27亿成交额 54.12 36.10 8.60 +0.19(+0.53%) -0.36(-0.66%) +0.10(+1.18%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 五粮液 山西汾酒 17760.63亿市值 2099.19亿市值 4565.94亿市值 39.48亿成交额 10.73亿成交额 21.62亿成交额 117.63 1413.84 172.07 -13.11(-0.92%) -1.49(-1.25%) +0.97(+0.57%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2207.27亿市值 2517.14亿市值 3204.56亿市值 14.65亿成交额 7.50亿成交额 16.77亿成交额 413.21 602.97 137.87 -1.93(-0.32%) +2.65(+0.65%) +0.81(+0.59%) 汽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to benefit from rising international oil prices and a gradual reduction in inventory levels [3]. - The demand for thermal coal is anticipated to remain stable despite being in a traditional off-peak season, supported by supply constraints and reduced imports [3]. - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as the peak season approaches, driven by improved steel production and profitability [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - June marks the annual "Safety Production Month" in China, emphasizing safety and emergency preparedness [9]. - Coal transportation from Xinjiang has increased, with a total of 39.4 million tons shipped out, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [9]. Price Trends for Thermal and Coking Coal - As of June 13, thermal coal prices remained stable, with various grades reporting little to no change [10][11]. - Coking coal prices have shown slight declines, but the report suggests a potential for stabilization as demand from steel mills increases [13]. International Oil Price Surge - Brent crude oil prices rose significantly, with a reported increase of $7.76 per barrel, marking an 11.67% rise [17]. - The relationship between international oil prices and coal prices has shown a downward trend, indicating a potential impact on coal pricing dynamics [17]. Port Inventory and Shipping Costs - Inventory levels at the Bohai Rim ports have decreased, with coal stock down to 28.688 million tons, a reduction of 63.10% week-on-week [22]. - Domestic shipping costs have declined, with average coastal shipping rates falling by 2.96% [29]. Valuation of Key Companies - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [34]. - Companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal are recommended for their stable operations and high dividend yields [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The rise in crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions, is expected to boost overseas coal market sentiment, necessitating close monitoring of international disturbances on coal prices [1][2]. - Seasonal demand for electricity is anticipated to support stable coal prices as summer peaks approach, with recommendations for companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Crude oil prices surged due to military actions in the Middle East, with Brent crude futures rising by 7.02% on June 13 and a total increase of 11.67% for the week [1]. - Historical correlations suggest that rising crude oil prices may positively impact coal prices [1]. Price Trends - The average closing price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (5500 kcal) was 609 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% week-on-week [2]. - The average price for Australian Newcastle port thermal coal (5500 kcal) was 66 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.99% [2]. - European natural gas futures settled at 36 EUR/MWh, up by 0.60% [2]. Production and Inventory - The operating rate of 110 sample washing plants was 57.4%, down 3.2 percentage points week-on-week and 11.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a low level compared to the past five years [3]. - Coal inventories at Qinhuangdao port were 6.18 million tons, down 5.65% week-on-week but up 19.31% year-on-year, indicating a high level for the same period [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the upcoming summer electricity demand will support coal prices, recommending companies with stable earnings such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are as follows: - China Shenhua: EPS 2.95 (2024A), PE 13 (2024A), rating "Accumulate" [5]. - China Coal Energy: EPS 1.46 (2024A), PE 7 (2024A), rating "Accumulate" [5]. - Shanxi Coking Coal: EPS 0.55 (2024A), PE 12 (2024A), rating "Accumulate" [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [10][11] - The coal supply side is experiencing a contraction, with a decrease in coal mine capacity utilization rates, while demand is expected to recover, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality coal companies that exhibit strong profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends, which are expected to remain attractive investments [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of June 14, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 610 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is reported at 1250 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week [31] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week, while coking coal mines have a utilization rate of 83.71%, down 0.9 percentage points [10][46] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 9.50 thousand tons/day (-3.03%) and in coastal provinces by 0.30 thousand tons/day (-0.17%) [10][47] 3. Coal Inventory and Transportation - As of June 12, coal inventory in inland provinces has decreased by 12.60 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 38.50 thousand tons [47] - The report notes that the daily coal consumption is in the early stages of a seasonal increase, indicating a potential recovery in demand [10] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index shows mixed results among its constituent stocks, with a slight overall decline, while the ETF associated with this index has seen significant inflows and strong long-term performance metrics [1][5]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of June 13, 2025, the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index decreased by 0.37% [1]. - The ETF associated with this index, CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (515300), experienced a turnover of 4.49% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 268 million yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the average daily transaction value of the ETF was 11.7 million yuan, and its latest scale reached 5.975 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Among the constituent stocks, Shanghai Port Group led with a gain of 1.39%, while Shanghai Bank, Industrial Bank, and Jiangsu Bank saw declines [1]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 36.97% of the total index weight, with China Shenhua and Gree Electric Appliances being the most significant contributors [2][4]. Group 3: Dividend and Investment Trends - The upcoming dividend season from May to July is expected to attract more investments into dividend-paying stocks, as the yield on dividend indices reaches new highs [5]. - Regulatory support for increasing insurance funds' market participation is anticipated to enhance the valuation expectations for dividend stocks [5]. - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities through the corresponding CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF linked funds [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 index component stocks showed a general decline in bank stocks while the oil industry demonstrated strength [1] Group 2: Insurance Sector - China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance reported market capitalizations of 375.90 billion, 345.08 billion, and 992.28 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 5.26 million, 15.94 million, and 4.92 million [4] - The stock performance for these companies was as follows: China Life -0.19 (-0.53%), China Pacific -0.32 (-0.58%), and Ping An +0.02 (+0.24%) [4] Group 3: Alcohol Industry - Major players in the liquor sector include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with market capitalizations of 1795.74 billion, 209.72 billion, and 464.08 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 8.59 million, 30.41 million, and 53.76 million [4] - Stock changes were reported as follows: Kweichow Moutai -29.49 (-2.02%), Wuliangye -2.94 (-2.40%), and Shanxi Fenjiu -1.94 (-1.12%) [4] Group 4: Semiconductor Sector - Key companies include Northern Huachuang, Haiguang Information, and Cambrian Technology, with market capitalizations of 218.37 billion, 251.15 billion, and 316.16 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 13.82 million, 14.05 million, and 13.86 million [4] - Stock performance was as follows: Northern Huachuang +4.57 (+1.13%), Haiguang Information -3.18 (-0.53%), and Cambrian Technology -0.07 (-0.05%) [4] Group 5: Automotive Sector - Notable companies include BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, with market capitalizations of 280.83 billion, 1039.06 billion, and 185.40 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 49.75 million, 4.26 million, and 2.68 million [4] - Stock changes were reported as follows: BYD -11.34 (-3.21%), Great Wall Motors -0.46 (-2.08%), and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway +0.02 (+0.35%) [4] Group 6: Oil Industry - Major companies include COSCO Shipping, Sinopec, and China National Petroleum, with market capitalizations of 252.95 billion, 721.41 billion, and 1643.53 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 7.68 million, 15.71 million, and 11.47 million [4] - Stock performance was as follows: COSCO Shipping +0.06 (+1.02%), Sinopec +0.10 (+1.13%), and China National Petroleum +0.41 (+2.58%) [4] Group 7: Coal Industry - Key players include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and CATL, with market capitalizations of 781.23 billion, 192.64 billion, and 1127.70 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 22.00 million, 6.00 million, and 4.30 million [4] - Stock changes were reported as follows: China Shenhua -2.47 (-0.99%), Shaanxi Coal +0.30 (+0.77%), and CATL +0.15 (+0.76%) [4] Group 8: Food and Beverage Sector - Companies such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and Haitian Flavoring reported market capitalizations of 390.23 billion, 322.27 billion, and 227.37 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 11.01 million, 15.22 million, and 5.98 million [5] - Stock performance was as follows: CITIC Securities -0.11 (-0.42%), Guotai Junan -0.15 (-0.81%), and Haitian Flavoring -0.40 (-0.97%) [5]