Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12][13] Core Insights - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for 2024, with a net loss of 240 million yuan compared to a loss of 3.21 billion yuan in 2023, indicating improved financial performance [10][12] - The company achieved a revenue of 166.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth, and is projected to continue growing in the coming years [6][12] - The recovery in overseas capacity and an increase in passenger load factor were noted, although passenger kilometer revenue saw a decline [7][12] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company’s operating revenue was 166.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -240 million yuan, a significant improvement from -1.05 billion yuan in the previous year [6][10] - The company’s total passenger load factor reached 79.9%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] Cost and Expense Management - Operating costs for 2024 were 158.2 billion yuan, up 18.0% year-on-year, but seat kilometer costs decreased by 3.0% [8] - Financial expenses decreased by 6.9 billion yuan, with interest expenses down by 4.9 billion yuan [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 173.7 billion yuan, 183.1 billion yuan, and 191.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits expected to be 3.1 billion yuan, 7.3 billion yuan, and 11.5 billion yuan [11][12] - The company plans to increase its fleet size at a compound annual growth rate of 4.0% from 2024 to 2027 [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines reported a significant reduction in losses for 2024, with a net loss of 237 million yuan, a decrease of 77.32% year-on-year, attributed to the accelerated recovery of the civil aviation market and effective cost control measures [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 166.699 billion yuan, representing an 18.14% year-on-year increase [1] - Operating costs rose by 18.04% to 158.189 billion yuan, but this was a significant improvement compared to a 61.83% increase in 2023 [1] - The unit cost per seat kilometer decreased by 3.03% to 0.44 yuan, while the overall gross profit margin improved from 5.02% in 2023 to 5.1% in 2024 [1] Operational Metrics - Total transport turnover increased by 32.77%, and passenger numbers rose by 23.8%, with a passenger load factor of 79.85%, up 6.63 percentage points [2] - Fuel costs increased by 14.97% to 53.72 billion yuan, but the growth rate was significantly lower than the 105.27% increase in 2023 [2] - Airline catering costs rose by 38.74% to 4.166 billion yuan, with per capita meal costs increasing from 24 yuan in 2023 to 26.88 yuan in 2024, primarily due to the increase in passenger numbers [2] Subsidiary Performance - Among the nine subsidiaries disclosed, only three reported profits: Ameco (4.01 million yuan), AVIC Finance (0.54 million yuan), and Cathay Pacific (8.801 billion yuan) [3] - Shenzhen Airlines, in which China National Airlines holds a 51% stake, reported the highest loss at 2.813 billion yuan [3] - The financial performance of other subsidiaries varied, with some experiencing significant losses, such as Dalian Airlines, which reported a loss of 34.9 million yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to improve its financial performance in 2024, with a projected reduction in net loss to 240 million yuan, reflecting a decrease in loss by 810 million yuan year-on-year [1][6]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with passenger revenue contributing 151.8 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year [3]. - The passenger kilometer yield decreased by 12.4% to 0.534 yuan, with domestic routes yielding 0.537 yuan (down 9.7%), international routes at 0.513 yuan (down 22.6%), and regional routes at 0.649 yuan (down 16.7%) [3]. - The company recorded operating costs of approximately 158.2 billion yuan in 2024, also up 18% year-on-year, with a notable decrease in unit fuel costs by 6% [3]. Operational Metrics - The aircraft utilization rate recovered to 92%, with a daily utilization of 8.9 hours, and the passenger load factor improved to approximately 80%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For domestic routes, the available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by 5.4% with a load factor of 81.5%, while international routes saw a 100.5% increase in ASK with a load factor of 76.3% [2]. Fleet Expansion Plans - The company plans to increase its Boeing and Airbus passenger fleet by an average of 3% over the next three years, with a projected fleet size of 926 aircraft by the end of 2024 [2]. - The wide-body aircraft proportion is expected to decrease, with projections indicating a drop to 13.6% by 2027 from 14.7% at the end of 2024 [2]. Cost Management - The company’s selling expense ratio is projected at 4.2%, while the management expense ratio is at 3.3%, reflecting slight changes year-on-year [4]. - Financial expenses decreased to 6.77 billion yuan, primarily due to lower interest expenses and reduced foreign exchange losses [4]. Investment Income - The company reported net investment income of 2.9 billion yuan in 2024, with China National Aviation contributing approximately 2.5 billion yuan [5]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to experience a sustained supply constraint with steady demand growth, leading to a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics and high profit elasticity [7]. - Projected net profits for the company are estimated at 4.7 billion yuan, 10.1 billion yuan, and 15.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with an upgraded rating to "buy" [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company continues to narrow its losses and is awaiting a recovery in passenger transport [4] - In 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -240 million yuan, significantly reducing losses [4] - The passenger transport business shows signs of recovery, with a 21.7% increase in capacity and a 32.8% increase in passenger turnover, totaling 155 million passengers, a year-on-year growth of 23.8% [5] - Cargo performance remains strong, with cargo revenue reaching 7.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.0% [5] - The company expects continued growth in passenger transport in 2025, with projected revenues of 173.5 billion yuan, 185.2 billion yuan, and 196.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 6.7%, and 6.3% respectively [7] Financial Summary - The company’s total assets are 345.8 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 88.2% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.22 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.98 [9] - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 42.5 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.61 billion yuan [9][12] - The company’s operating costs for 2024 were 158.2 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 5.1% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company continues to narrow its losses and is awaiting a recovery in passenger transport [4] - In 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -240 million yuan, significantly reducing losses [4] - The passenger transport business shows signs of recovery, with a 21.7% increase in capacity and a 32.8% increase in passenger turnover, totaling 155 million passengers, a year-on-year growth of 23.8% [5] - Cargo performance remains strong, with cargo revenue reaching 7.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.0% [5] - The company expects continued growth in passenger transport in 2025, with projected revenues of 173.5 billion yuan, 185.2 billion yuan, and 196.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 6.7%, and 6.3% respectively [7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 7.59 yuan - Total shares: 1.7448 billion, circulating shares: 1.1638 billion - Total market value: 132.4 billion yuan, circulating market value: 88.3 billion yuan - Asset-liability ratio: 88.2% [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s operating revenue was 166.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of -240 million yuan, indicating a significant reduction in losses [4] - The fourth quarter revenue was 38.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with a net profit of -1.6 billion yuan [4] - The company’s oil costs were 53.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, while non-oil costs reached 104.47 billion yuan, a 19.7% increase [6] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 3.61 billion yuan, 7.89 billion yuan, and 10.65 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with significant growth rates of 118.4% and 34.9% in subsequent years [7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.22 yuan, 0.47 yuan, and 0.64 yuan respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation Holding Company (601111) based on the expected recovery in international routes and improving demand dynamics [8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses, with a net profit of -2.37 billion yuan for 2024, an improvement of 8 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a 77.3% reduction in losses [6][8]. - The operational metrics show a strong recovery, with total Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increasing by 21.7% and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rising by 32.8% in 2024 [4]. - The average ticket price has seen a decline of 12.1% year-on-year, but cost reductions and a potential recovery in demand are expected to enhance profitability moving forward [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, representing an 18.1% year-on-year increase [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.37 billion yuan, a significant improvement from the previous year [6]. - Quarterly net profits showed fluctuations, with Q1 to Q4 results of -16.7 billion, -11 billion, 41.4 billion, and -16 billion yuan respectively [6]. Operational Metrics - The total ASK for 2024 was up by 21.7%, with domestic ASK increasing by 5.4% and international routes recovering to 85.5% of 2019 levels [4]. - The overall passenger load factor improved to 79.9%, with domestic and international load factors at 81.5% and 75.9% respectively [4]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average ticket price in the industry fell by 12.1% year-on-year, while the company's unit revenue per RPK decreased by 12.4% [5]. - The average fuel price dropped by 7% year-on-year, contributing to a 3% reduction in unit ASK costs [5]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 53.92 billion, 78.91 billion, and 101 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating substantial growth [8]. - The anticipated recovery in international travel and a stabilizing supply-demand balance are expected to drive future profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Airlines, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses, with a net profit of -2.37 billion yuan for 2024, an improvement of 8.1 billion yuan year-on-year, representing a 77.3% reduction in losses [6][8]. - The recovery of international routes and a substantial increase in passenger load factor are expected to drive future profitability [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.37 billion yuan, a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [6][8]. - Quarterly net profits for 2024 were -16.7 billion, -11 billion, 41.4 billion, and -16 billion yuan, showing a mixed performance throughout the year [6]. Operational Metrics - The total Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 21.7% year-on-year, with domestic ASK up by 5.4% and international routes recovering to 85.5% of 2019 levels [4]. - Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rose by 32.8%, with domestic RPK increasing by 15.3% and international RPK recovering to 82.2% of 2019 levels [4]. - The overall passenger load factor reached 79.9%, with domestic and international load factors at 81.5% and 75.9%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases [4]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average ticket price in the industry fell by 12.1% year-on-year, while the company's unit revenue per RPK decreased by 12.4% [5]. - The average fuel price decreased by 7% year-on-year, contributing to a 3% reduction in unit ASK costs [5]. - The report anticipates a gradual narrowing of ticket price declines, with expectations for price recovery in the second and third quarters of 2025 [5]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 53.92 billion, 78.91 billion, and 101 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise to 0.31, 0.45, and 0.58 yuan for the same years, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Aviation Holding Company (601111) is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance is expected to improve in 2024, with a total operating revenue of 166.699 billion yuan, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth. The net loss attributable to shareholders is projected to be 237 million yuan, a reduction of 809 million yuan compared to the previous year [5] - The company is focusing on increasing capacity and improving operational efficiency, with significant growth in both domestic and international operations. The report highlights a strong recovery in international routes, with ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) showing substantial year-on-year increases [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating revenue is forecasted to grow from 141.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 166.699 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected increase to 194.734 billion yuan by 2027 [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 4.305 billion yuan, and further increasing to 9.265 billion yuan by 2027 [7] - The report notes a significant improvement in gross margin from 5.0% in 2023 to 8.4% in 2025, indicating better cost management and pricing strategies [7] Operational Data - The company has implemented a strategy of "increasing investment and securing capacity," leading to a 21.7% year-on-year increase in overall ASK and a 32.8% increase in overall RPK for 2024 [5] - Domestic operations have shown strong growth, with domestic RPK increasing by 15.3% year-on-year, while international operations have seen a remarkable recovery, with international RPK up by 125.6% year-on-year [5] Fleet and Aircraft Introduction - In 2024, the company introduced 36 new aircraft and retired 11, resulting in a fleet size of 930 aircraft, a 2.8% increase from the previous year [5] - The company plans to continue expanding its fleet, with net additions of 30 aircraft in both 2025 and 2026, and 55 aircraft in 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to turn profitable soon, with an improvement in revenue levels anticipated [1]. - The company's operating performance in 2024 shows a significant increase in operational capacity, with supply and demand growing by 21.7% and 32.8% respectively, although unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 12.4% [2]. - The gross profit margin showed a slight improvement in 2024, with a net loss narrowing compared to the previous year [3]. - The forecast for 2025 indicates a potential recovery in revenue levels, particularly in domestic routes, while international routes are expected to stabilize [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 166.70 billion, an increase of 18.1%, with a net loss of RMB 237 million, which is a significant improvement from a net loss of RMB 1.05 billion in 2023 [1][5]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 5.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, with gross profit improving by 20.1% to RMB 8.51 billion [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 178.21 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.91% [5]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is RMB 5.39 billion, indicating a significant turnaround from the previous losses [5]. Valuation Metrics - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 10.20 for A-shares and HKD 6.90 for H-shares, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [4][6]. - The estimated price-to-book ratio for 2025 is projected at 2.38 for A-shares and 2.05 for H-shares [5].

Financial Performance - Air China reported a profit distribution plan for 2024, stating that there will be no profit distribution or capital reserve transfer to share capital[8]. - The company's operating revenue for 2024 reached CNY 166,698,880 thousand, an increase of 18.14% compared to CNY 141,100,234 thousand in 2023[26]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was CNY (237,305) thousand, showing a significant improvement of 77.32% from CNY (1,046,382) thousand in 2023[26]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was CNY 34,545,707 thousand, a slight decrease of 2.46% from CNY 35,418,470 thousand in 2023[26]. - The total assets at the end of 2024 amounted to CNY 345,769,412 thousand, reflecting a 3.12% increase from CNY 335,302,681 thousand at the end of 2023[26]. - The basic earnings per share for 2024 was CNY (0.01), an improvement of 85.71% compared to CNY (0.07) in 2023[27]. - The company reported a total of CNY 2,302,391 thousand in non-recurring gains and losses for 2024, compared to CNY 2,130,521 thousand in 2023[33]. - The company’s net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 21.27% to CNY 45,147,411 thousand at the end of 2024 from CNY 37,229,962 thousand at the end of 2023[26]. - The weighted average return on equity for 2024 was (0.60)%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points from 2.77% in 2023[27]. - The company achieved operating revenue of RMB 166.70 billion in 2024, an increase of 18.14% year-on-year[55]. - The main business revenue was RMB 164.58 billion, up 18.31% year-on-year, while other business revenue reached RMB 2.12 billion, increasing by 6.27%[56]. - Passenger transport revenue amounted to RMB 151.79 billion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 21.27 billion, driven by increased capacity and passenger load factor[59]. - Operating costs for 2024 were RMB 158.19 billion, an increase of 18.04% year-on-year, with major cost components including fuel and employee compensation[67]. - The financial expenses decreased by 9.20% to RMB 67.67 billion, primarily due to lower interest expenses[55]. Operational Efficiency - The company has a comprehensive fleet management strategy, focusing on operational efficiency and capacity utilization[15]. - The company has established a mechanism to maximize aircraft resource utilization, leading to improved aircraft daily utilization rates[38]. - The company achieved a daily planned flight schedule of 746 flights at Beijing Capital International Airport, with a total of 120 daily flights on its eight key express routes[52]. - The company has expanded its passenger routes to 847, including 657 domestic routes and 190 international routes, covering 45 countries and regions[53]. - The available seat kilometers increased by 21.74% to 356,103.62 million, with the passenger load factor rising by 6.63 percentage points to 79.85%[60]. - The average revenue per available seat kilometer decreased by 12.41% to RMB 0.5338, with international routes seeing a decline of 22.63%[90]. - The operating cost per available seat kilometer decreased by 3.03% to RMB 0.4442[91]. - The company is focusing on cost control and has adopted a strategy of "intensive, collaborative, and refined" management to improve efficiency[45]. - The company plans to enhance overall operational efficiency and reduce costs through deeper collaboration within the Air China system[164]. Market Expansion and Strategy - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to enhance operational efficiency[36]. - The international capacity investment doubled year-on-year, reflecting the company's commitment to expanding international routes[38]. - The company aims to complete a total turnover of 161 billion ton-kilometers and transport 780 million passengers by 2025, according to industry forecasts[41]. - The company is focusing on digital innovation and green development as part of its long-term strategy[112]. - The company is actively pursuing new strategies for growth, including potential mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its market position[141]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its hub network strategy, focusing on building international aviation hubs in Beijing and Chengdu to differentiate from competitors[118]. Safety and Compliance - The company received the "Diamond Two-Star Award" for flight safety from the Civil Aviation Administration, highlighting its commitment to safety[43]. - The company is committed to improving safety and operational efficiency, with the appointment of a new Chief Safety Officer to oversee these initiatives[146]. - The internal control system was evaluated as effective as of December 31, 2024, with no significant deficiencies found in financial reporting controls[178]. - The company has strengthened its internal control and risk management systems, continuously improving the effectiveness of its internal controls[177]. - The company is committed to maintaining a stable safety production environment and reinforcing safety responsibilities[165]. Governance and Management - The company has a robust governance structure, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of its annual report[7]. - The company is committed to maintaining independence in assets, personnel, finance, and operations from its controlling shareholder[126]. - The board of directors is actively involved in strategic decision-making to drive the company's growth and market expansion[134]. - The company has seen changes in its board composition, with several new appointments in 2023, including Wang Mingyuan as president and vice chairman[135]. - The management team emphasizes innovation and technology development to improve service offerings and operational capabilities[143]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its management team with experienced professionals from the aviation sector[134]. - The company is enhancing its corporate governance structure, as evidenced by the diverse backgrounds of its board members, including expertise in finance, aviation, and management[149]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company invested approximately 54.2 million yuan in environmental protection initiatives during the reporting period[182]. - Ameco reduced carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 1,022,175 tons through various carbon reduction measures, including the use of sustainable aviation fuel[190]. - The company plans to use 446.6 tons of sustainable aviation fuel in 2024, contributing to a reduction of 463,980 tons of carbon dioxide emissions[191]. - The company has invested a total of 50 million yuan in the "China Aviation Blue Sky Rescue" program to assist disadvantaged communities[198]. - The company has organized 3 special meetings to strategize on rural revitalization efforts and has sent 125 personnel to assist in these initiatives[197]. - The company actively promotes green travel initiatives, including the "Clean Enjoy Flying" project, to foster environmentally friendly consumption habits among passengers[189]. Training and Development - The company conducted training for 2,843 participants in the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, enhancing leadership capabilities[171]. - A total of 55.1 million hours of online training were conducted for various operational personnel, ensuring effective qualifications for flight operations[172]. - The company has trained a total of 10,070 individuals through various training programs aimed at enhancing local skills and capabilities[199]. Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance core competitiveness and achieve annual profit growth by focusing on the "one benefit and five rates" target[165]. - The company plans to strengthen risk identification and monitoring, with a focus on major operational risks[165]. - The management will adopt a collaborative and refined management approach to improve operational efficiency[165]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, leveraging the expertise of its board members to navigate the evolving aviation landscape[147].