航空股全线回调，截至发稿，东方航空(00670)跌5.17%，报5.5港元；中国国航（601111）(00753)跌 4.95%，报7.11港元；南方航空（600029）(01055)跌3.11%，报5.92港元；国泰航空(00293)跌1.51%，报 12.42港元。 消息面上，近期油价、汇率波动。据华创证券研报，根据各家航司2025年半年报披露，10%的油价变动 对应三大航年化成本影响约43~51亿，1%汇率波动，对三大航影响在1.3-2.6亿。国泰海通证券近期指， 预计2026年春运需求将保持旺盛；民航将严控干线市场航司增加与增班，春运加班将较为有限；春节拼 假效应将弱于往年，节前节后客流集中或有利航司收益管理。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season in China is expected to see record-high passenger flow and transportation volume across railways and civil aviation, with significant increases in both sectors compared to previous years [1][4]. Railway Sector - The China National Railway Group anticipates sending 539 million passengers during the Spring Festival travel period from February 2 to March 13, 2026, representing a 5% year-on-year increase [1]. - On peak travel days, over 14,000 passenger trains are expected to operate, with a 5.3% increase in seating capacity compared to the previous year [1]. - The railway ticketing service will enhance support for key passenger groups, including additional discounts for college graduates and continued services for students and workers [1][3]. Civil Aviation Sector - The civil aviation sector is projected to transport 95 million passengers during the Spring Festival, with a daily average of 2.375 million passengers, marking a 5.3% increase [4]. - Major airlines are expected to operate 657,000 flights, also reflecting a 5% increase year-on-year [4]. - The top three airlines (China Eastern, Air China, and China Southern) will account for 43% of the flights, while the top 20 airlines will represent 90% of the total operations [4]. Ticket Pricing and Trends - As of January 15, 2026, the average pre-sale price for domestic economy class tickets during the Spring Festival is 1,064 yuan (including tax), which is 20% higher than the actual transaction price from the previous year [5]. - The peak ticket prices are expected around the Spring Festival, with significant price drops possible for travelers who adjust their travel dates [5]. - Popular domestic travel destinations are dominated by southern cities, with Shantou leading in booking growth at 186% year-on-year [5]. International Travel - During the Spring Festival, outbound travel is primarily focused on Southeast Asia, with Thailand being the most popular destination [6]. - There has been a significant reduction in flights to Japan, with a cancellation rate of 36% for flights during the travel period [6]. - The demand for customized outbound travel packages has increased, with an 18% rise in pre-orders for long-haul trips [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines, including China National Aviation (China Air), China Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and others, based on their projected earnings growth and favorable market conditions [2][3]. Core Insights - The domestic passenger load factor has increased significantly, reaching a historical high of 85.7% in December 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points [7][10]. - The international passenger load factor has shown a slight increase, but the growth rate has slowed due to disruptions in the Japanese route, with December figures reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points [14][15]. - The overall industry demand growth continues to outpace supply growth, with a combined ASK/RPK increase of 6.6% and 9.1% respectively for the six listed airlines in December [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. December International Supply and Demand Trends - The demand growth in December 2025 exceeded supply growth, with both domestic and international load factors reaching historical highs [10][11]. - The domestic routes saw a supply increase of 4.2% in ASK and a demand increase of 7.2% in RPK, while international routes experienced a 12.0% increase in ASK and a 13.3% increase in RPK [7][14]. 2. Aircraft Introductions and Fleet Growth - The total fleet of the six airlines increased by 0.4% in December, with a net addition of 14 aircraft, bringing the total to 3,386 [22][24]. - The A320 series was the primary aircraft introduced, with significant contributions from China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [22][27]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the tight supply-demand relationship in domestic routes will lead to a moderate increase in ticket prices in 2026, supported by regulatory measures to address low pricing [7][11]. - The international routes are expected to benefit from increased inbound tourism, with airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines positioned to gain from this trend [7][15].

2026年寒假及春节出行高峰将至， 国航在多条国际及地区航线上， 临时增班、加密， 让您的出行更便捷。 快来看看哪些航线有新变化， 提前规划您的旅程吧！ | 航线 | 航班号 | 离港时刻 | 班期 | 执行日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京首都-奥克兰 | CA579/80 | 17:10 | 五六日 | 1月23日-3月1日 | | 北京首都-悉尼 | CA581/82 | 21:50 | 五六日 | 1月23日-3月1日 | 欧洲 港澳台地区 | 航线 | 航班号 | 离港时刻 | 班期 | 执行日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重庆-香港 | CA565/6 | 13:35 | 每日 | 1月25日-3月15日 | | 武汉-澳门 | CA119/20 | 13:10 | | 2月10日-2月21日 | 亚洲 | 航线 | 航班号 | 离港时刻 | 班期 | 执行日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京首都-曼谷 | CA563/4 | 17:30 | 包日 | 12月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 1.17% on January 21, with China Eastern Airlines leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.7% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of China Eastern Airlines was 6.22, reflecting a decrease of 2.20% with a trading volume of 1,109,700 shares and a transaction value of 6.95 million [2]. - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 84.83 million from major funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 10.9 million, and speculative funds had a net inflow of 194 million [2][3]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China National Aviation (China National Airlines) had a net outflow of 22.99 million from major funds, with a net inflow of 5.52 million from speculative funds and a net outflow of 28.51 million from retail investors [3]. - Xiamen Airport reported a net outflow of 2.03 million from major funds, while speculative funds had a net inflow of 1.35 million, and retail investors saw a net inflow of 0.68 million [3]. - Shenzhen Airport experienced a net inflow of 12.93 million from major funds, with a net inflow of 2.77 million from speculative funds and a net outflow of 15.69 million from retail investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has a positive outlook on Asia-Pacific airlines for 2026, expecting profitability to be supported by sustained high ticket prices, healthy demand, improved cargo fundamentals, and potential benefits from excess oil supply [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The average earnings per share forecast for Asia-Pacific airlines for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 22% to reflect improved passenger and cargo unit revenue outlook [1] - The largest upward revision is for mainland Chinese airlines [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The average target price for Asia-Pacific airlines has been increased by 30% to reflect the earnings forecast adjustments [1] - China Eastern Airlines' target price has been raised from HKD 2 to HKD 2.9, maintaining an underperform rating [1] - China Southern Airlines' target price has been increased from HKD 3.1 to HKD 5.92, with the rating upgraded from underperform to neutral [1] - Air China’s target price has been raised from HKD 4.2 to HKD 8.3, with the rating upgraded from underperform to buy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has a positive outlook on Asia-Pacific airlines for 2026, expecting profitability to be supported by sustained high ticket prices, healthy demand, improved cargo fundamentals, and potential benefits from excess oil supply [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The average earnings per share forecast for Asia-Pacific airlines for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 22% to reflect improved passenger and cargo unit revenue outlook [1] - The largest upward revision is for airlines in mainland China [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The average target price for Asia-Pacific airlines has been increased by 30% to reflect the earnings forecast adjustments [1] - China Eastern Airlines' target price has been raised from HKD 2 to HKD 2.9, maintaining an underperform rating [1] - China Southern Airlines' target price has been increased from HKD 3.1 to HKD 5.92, with the rating upgraded from underperform to neutral [1] - Air China’s target price has been raised from HKD 4.2 to HKD 8.3, with the rating upgraded from underperform to buy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a notable increase of 2.53% on January 20, with Southern Airlines leading the gains, while the overall stock market indices showed slight declines [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1]. - Southern Airlines saw a closing price of 8.13, with a rise of 4.90%, and a trading volume of 936,000 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 750 million yuan [1]. - China Eastern Airlines closed at 6.36, up 3.75%, with a trading volume of 1,763,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.111 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China National Aviation Holdings closed at 9.10, increasing by 3.29%, with a trading volume of 991,800 shares and a transaction value of 895 million yuan [1]. - Shenzhen Airport's closing price was 7.16, up 2.43%, with a trading volume of 294,900 shares and a transaction value of 209 million yuan [1]. - Shanghai Airport closed at 32.37, rising by 2.05%, with a trading volume of 206,900 shares and a transaction value of 666 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 137 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.22 billion yuan [2]. - Southern Airlines had a net outflow of 57.22 million yuan from main funds, with retail investors also showing a net outflow of 38.10 million yuan [3]. - Shanghai Airport recorded a net inflow of 45.37 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net outflow of 34.33 million yuan [3].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations today, with all three major indices closing lower. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% or 76.39 points to 26,487.51 points, with a total turnover of HKD 2,377.66 million. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.43% to 9,094.76 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.16% to 5,683.44 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - Pop Mart (09992) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 9.07% to HKD 197.2, contributing 19.52 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company announced a share buyback of 1.4 million shares for HKD 2.51 million at prices between HKD 177.7 and HKD 181.2. Morgan Stanley noted that this buyback could attract more investors [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included China Life (601628) (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, contributing 16.6 points, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64, contributing 5.52 points. Conversely, WuXi AppTec (603259) (02359) fell by 4.13% to HKD 113.7, detracting 3.73 points, and SMIC (00981) dropped by 3.25% to HKD 74.5, detracting 18.11 points [2] Sector Highlights - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Baidu rising by 0.95% while Tencent fell over 1%. Gold stocks rebounded, with spot gold surpassing USD 4,700 for the first time, and consumer stocks gained traction due to favorable consumption policies. Notably, Pop Mart's buyback led to a price increase of over 10% [3] - Gold stocks saw a recovery, with Zijin Mining International (02259) up 5.47% to HKD 179.4, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) (06693) up 3.6% to HKD 33.94, Shandong Gold Mining (600547) (01787) up 2.73% to HKD 43.7, and China National Gold International (600916) (02099) up 2.04% to HKD 195 [3] Real Estate Sector - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.3% month-on-month decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities for December 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the real estate sector has undergone deep adjustments, and recent central government directives to stabilize the market may lead to positive policy changes [5] - The real estate sector showed positive performance, with China Overseas Land & Investment (00081) up 4.93% to HKD 2.13, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64 [4][5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector performed well, with China Pacific Insurance (00966) up 4.39% to HKD 23.8, China Life (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, and New China Life Insurance (601336) (01336) up 2.72% to HKD 62.35. Reports indicated that major insurance companies saw significant growth in premium income through bancassurance channels [4][5] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector continued its upward trend, with China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) up 4.57% to HKD 6.18, China National Aviation (601111) (00753) up 3.91% to HKD 7.45, and Cathay Pacific (00293) up 1.63% to HKD 12.49. Analysts expect strong demand during the upcoming Spring Festival travel season, with improved ticket pricing and revenue management driving profitability [6] Notable Stock Movements - Youjia Innovation (02431) saw a significant increase of 7.21% to HKD 15.77 after signing a memorandum of understanding with India's Sterling Tools Ltd. to focus on the automotive market [7] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) reached a new high, rising 6.04% to HKD 71.95, as the company plans to initiate a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project with an estimated investment of USD 436.6 million [8] - GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986) (03986) continued to rise by 5.52% to HKD 306, benefiting from a tight supply of memory chips [9] - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) (00338) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation industry, indicating it is entering a "golden era" with an investment rating of "Overweight" [2][3]. Core Insights - The National Civil Aviation Work Conference emphasized "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with initial signs of reducing "involution" in the industry. The 2026 targets include a total transport turnover of 1,750 billion ton-kilometers, 810 million passenger transport, and 10.7 million tons of cargo, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7%, 5.2%, and 5.2% respectively [3]. - The global aircraft supply chain remains unhealed, with an aging fleet exacerbating supply constraints. Airbus plans to deliver 793 aircraft in 2025, while Boeing aims for 600, both below pre-pandemic levels. The backlog exceeds 15,000 aircraft, and the delivery cycle has extended to 6.8 years, leading to prolonged service of older models [3]. - Demand is bolstered by visa exemption policies, driving an increase in inbound travelers. The proportion of foreign visitors entering China under visa exemptions has stabilized above 70%. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see a daily average of 5.3% growth in passenger volume, with ticket prices projected to rise by 20% compared to the previous year [3]. - The report recommends continued investment in the aviation sector, highlighting the unprecedented constraints in aircraft manufacturing, high passenger load factors, and the growth of inbound and outbound travel. Key companies recommended include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, Huaxia Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The global aircraft supply chain is still recovering, with significant delivery delays and an aging fleet leading to supply constraints. The total number of passenger aircraft in China is projected to grow by only 4% in 2025, with a peak in retirements expected by 2030 [3]. Demand Side - The implementation of visa exemption policies is expected to significantly increase the number of inbound travelers, with international routes becoming the main driver of demand growth in 2026. The Spring Festival is anticipated to show a notable increase in both volume and pricing [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strong investment in the aviation sector, citing the current supply constraints and the potential for significant improvements in airline profitability. Specific airlines and global aircraft leasing companies are highlighted as key investment opportunities [3][4].