证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 22 日 常熟银行（601128.SH） 业绩坚挺，等待溢价 总量研究/银行 2025 年 7 月 21 日，常熟银行披露 2025 年半年度业绩快报，营收保持两位数 的相对高增长，归母净利润稳健中高速增长，不良率稳定，拨备覆盖率稳定。 核心观点： ❑ 风险提示：经济下行超预期；宏观政策力度不及预期；存款竞争加剧。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 9870 | 10909 | 11763 | 12481 | 13350 | | 同比增长 | 12.1% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4053 | 4869 | 5206 | 5665 | 6080 | | 同比增长 | 20.5% | 20.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3282 | 3813 | 4222 | 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The first half performance forecast of Changshu Bank shows a notable increase in revenue and net profit despite a challenging banking environment, indicating resilience in its operations [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Changshu Bank reported revenue of 6.062 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.969 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.1% and 13.55% respectively [1][4]. - The bank's total assets reached 401.251 billion, with total loans at 251.471 billion, marking a 4.4% increase compared to the end of the previous year [4]. - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 0.76%, down from 0.77% at the beginning of the year, while the provision coverage ratio fell to 489.53% [4][5]. Loan and Deposit Dynamics - The growth in total loans was lower than the growth in deposits, which increased by 4.06 percentage points, potentially impacting the net interest margin [3][4]. - As of the first quarter, the bank's loan distribution was 38.6% for corporate loans and 54.18% for retail loans, with corporate loans growing by 7.3% while retail loans saw a minimal increase of 0.24% [5]. Key Ratios and Indicators - The annualized return on total assets and the weighted average return on equity increased by 0.02 and 0.05 percentage points respectively [3]. - The bank's basic earnings per share rose to 0.59 from 0.52 year-on-year [4]. Strategic Positioning - Changshu Bank has established a strong market position focusing on "three rural issues and two small enterprises," creating a competitive edge through its "Changyin Microfinance Model" [5].

Group 1 - Jiangte Electric plans to change its control rights, with stock suspension starting from July 22, expected to last no more than 2 trading days. Additionally, its subsidiary Yichun Yinli will suspend operations for equipment maintenance for approximately 26 days, which is not expected to significantly impact annual performance [3] - Core Technology intends to sell 100% equity of its subsidiary Zhongshan Core Automation Technology for 156 million yuan and transfer related assets for a total of approximately 82 million yuan. The company aims to optimize its business structure by consolidating resources [4] - Fengmao Co. plans to invest no more than 1.5 billion yuan to establish an intelligent chassis thermal control system production base in Yuyao, while terminating the project for a parts production base in Jiaxing, which had not yet commenced [5] - Haopeng Technology's controlling shareholder voluntarily extends the lock-up period for pre-IPO restricted shares by 12 months, reflecting confidence in the company's future development [6] - Good Products has been involved in a share transfer dispute, with the court accepting the case involving 996 million yuan. The outcome may introduce uncertainties regarding the control transfer of its major shareholder [7] Group 2 - Haitan Ruisheng expects a net profit increase of 607.01% to 960.52% for the first half of 2025, driven by rapid growth in AI technology and its applications [9] - GeKao Micro anticipates a revenue growth of 22.27% to 36.51% for the first half of 2025, supported by the recognition of its high-pixel chip integration technology [10] - Jinghe Integration forecasts a net profit increase of 39.04% to 108.55% for the first half of 2025, benefiting from improved industry conditions and increased product sales [11] - Best Beauty expects a net profit increase of 100.07% to 168.38% for the first half of 2025, attributed to significant profit growth in trade products [12] - Juzan Optoelectronics reports a net profit growth of 3.43% for the first half of 2025, with a proposed stock dividend of 4.5 shares for every 10 shares held [13] - Changshu Bank reports a net profit of 1.969 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.55% [14] - Keda Li anticipates a net profit increase of 15.73% to 26.53% for the first half of 2025, driven by the growth in new energy vehicle sales [15] - *ST Sitong reports a net loss of 16.201 million yuan for the first half of 2025, despite a revenue increase of 75.88% [16] Group 3 - Gaode Infrared has signed contracts totaling 685 million yuan for overseas market orders, representing 25.59% of its projected 2024 revenue [18] - Dajin Heavy Industry has signed a contract worth approximately 430 million yuan for offshore wind farm foundation supplies, accounting for 11.38% of its projected 2024 revenue [20] - Dongfang Precision has established a strategic partnership with Leju Robotics, focusing on embodied intelligent robots [21] - Chuling Information's subsidiary has signed a framework contract with China Mobile for a total amount of 421 million yuan, involving intelligent network integration products [22] - Hongxin Technology has entered into contracts with a leading domestic flying car company for component development and procurement [23] Group 4 - Dongcai Technology's chairman plans to reduce his stake by up to 0.43% due to personal financial needs [25] - Tianchuang Fashion's shareholder Visions plans to reduce its stake by up to 1% through centralized bidding [26]

江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 证券代码：601128 证券简称：常熟银行 公告编号：2025- 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"本行"）董事会及全体董 事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 本公告所载2025年半年度主要财务数据为初步核算数据，未经会计师事务所 审计，具体数据以本行2025年半年度报告中披露的数据为准，提请投资者注意投 资风险。 一、2025年半年度主要财务数据和指标 单位：百万元 币种：人民币 | 项目 | | | | 增减变动（%） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （未经审计） | | （未经审计） | | | | | 营业收入 | 6,062 | | 5,506 | | 10.10 | | | 营业利润 | 2,440 | | 2,190 | | 11.42 | | | 利润总额 | 2,458 | | 2,179 | | 12.80 | | | 归属于本行普通股股东的净利润 | | 1,969 | | | | | | ...

[Announcement Statement](index=1&type=section&id=Announcement%20Statement) This announcement is a preliminary earnings report for Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. for H1 2025, with unaudited data and investment risk warnings - This announcement is the 2025 semi-annual performance express report of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. The data contained herein is unaudited by an accounting firm and represents preliminary accounting data, reminding investors to be aware of investment risks[1](index=1&type=chunk)[2](index=2&type=chunk) [Key Financial Data and Indicators](index=1&type=section&id=I.%20Key%20Financial%20Data%20and%20Indicators%20for%20H1%202025) The bank's H1 2025 financial performance shows double-digit growth in revenue and net profit, with stable asset expansion and improved asset quality [Financial Data Overview](index=1&type=section&id=Financial%20Data%20Overview) In H1 2025, Changshu Bank achieved double-digit growth in operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders, with steady total asset growth, a decrease in non-performing loan ratio, but a slight decrease in provision coverage ratio 2025 Semi-Annual Key Financial Data and Indicators (Unit: Million Yuan, Currency: RMB) | Item | Jan-Jun 2025 (Unaudited) | Jan-Jun 2024 (Unaudited) | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Operating Revenue | 6,062 | 5,506 | 10.10 | | Operating Profit | 2,440 | 2,190 | 11.42 | | Total Profit | 2,458 | 2,179 | 12.80 | | Net Profit Attributable to Ordinary Shareholders of the Bank | 1,969 | 1,734 | 13.55 | | Net Profit Attributable to Ordinary Shareholders of the Bank Excluding Non-Recurring Gains and Losses | 1,952 | 1,738 | 12.31 | | Basic Earnings Per Share (Yuan/Share) | 0.59 | 0.52 | 13.46 | | Return on Total Assets (%) | 1.10 | 1.08 | Increased by 0.02 percentage points | | Weighted Average Return on Net Assets (%) | 13.33 | 13.28 | Increased by 0.05 percentage points | | **Item** | **June 30, 2025 (Unaudited)** | **December 31, 2024 (Audited)** | **Change (%)** | | Total Assets | 401,251 | 366,582 | 9.46 | | Of which: Total Loans | 251,471 | 240,862 | 4.40 | | Total Liabilities | 369,268 | 335,913 | 9.93 | | Of which: Total Deposits | 310,777 | 286,546 | 8.46 | | Owners' Equity Attributable to Ordinary Shareholders of the Bank | 29,898 | 28,648 | 4.36 | | Share Capital | 3,316 | 3,015 | 9.98 | | Net Assets Per Share Attributable to Ordinary Shareholders of the Bank (Yuan/Share) | 9.01 | 9.50 | -5.16 | | Non-Performing Loan Ratio (%) | 0.76 | 0.77 | Decreased by 0.01 percentage points | | Provision Coverage Ratio (%) | 489.53 | 500.51 | Decreased by 10.98 percentage points | [Notes on Financial Data](index=1&type=section&id=Notes%20on%20Financial%20Data) The report clarifies the annualized nature of total asset return and weighted average return on equity, the composition of total loans and deposits, and the reason for the decrease in net assets per share - Return on total assets and weighted average return on net assets are **annualized data**[3](index=3&type=chunk) - Total loans do not include accrued interest, and total deposits do not include accrued interest[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Net assets per share attributable to ordinary shareholders of the bank decreased compared to the beginning of the year, primarily due to the conversion of capital reserves into share capital[4](index=4&type=chunk) [Explanation of Operating Performance and Financial Position](index=2&type=section&id=II.%20Explanation%20of%20Operating%20Performance%20and%20Financial%20Position) The bank maintained strong business focus, achieving double-digit growth in revenue and net profit, while expanding customer base and maintaining good asset quality - The bank consistently focused on its core business, driving down liability costs through a dual-pronged approach to assets and liabilities, expanding its customer ecosystem, achieving multi-point breakthroughs in innovative businesses, and extending its provincial footprint[5](index=5&type=chunk) - In H1 2025, operating revenue and net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders both maintained **double-digit growth**, with asset quality remaining at a relatively good industry level[5](index=5&type=chunk) 2025 H1 Key Operating Indicators | Indicator | Jan-Jun 2025 / End of June 2025 | Change from prior period / beginning of year | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Operating Revenue | 6.062 billion yuan | Increased by 10.10% year-on-year | | Net Profit Attributable to Ordinary Shareholders of the Bank | 1.969 billion yuan | Increased by 13.55% year-on-year | | Total Assets | 401.251 billion yuan | Increased by 9.46% from beginning of year | | Total Loans | 251.471 billion yuan | Increased by 4.40% from beginning of year | | Total Deposits | 310.777 billion yuan | Increased by 8.46% from beginning of year | | Non-Performing Loan Ratio | 0.76% | Decreased by 0.01 percentage points from beginning of year | | Provision Coverage Ratio | 489.53% | Decreased by 10.98 percentage points from beginning of year | [Risk Warning](index=2&type=section&id=III.%20Risk%20Warning) This preliminary financial data for H1 2025 may differ from the final report, with an expected variance not exceeding 10% - The main financial data for H1 2025 contained in this announcement are preliminary accounting data and may differ from the data disclosed in the final semi-annual report, but the expected variance will not exceed **10%**[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Reference Documents](index=2&type=section&id=IV.%20Reference%20Documents) Reference documents include comparative balance sheets and income statements signed by key executives - Reference documents include comparative balance sheets and income statements signed and sealed by the legal representative, president, chief financial officer, and head of the accounting department[7](index=7&type=chunk) [Announcement Date and Signatures](index=2&type=section&id=Announcement%20Date%20and%20Signatures) This announcement was issued by the Board of Directors of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. on July 21, 2025 - This announcement was issued by the Board of Directors of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. on **July 21, 2025**[8](index=8&type=chunk)

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is currently under pressure, but the market's preference for high dividend strategies is driving a notable upward trend in bank stocks. The release of policy dividends, along with increased participation from insurance funds, active funds, and passive funds, is expected to provide stable incremental capital for bank stocks, enhancing the sustainability of valuation recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Current Banking Fundamentals - The banking sector's fundamentals are still under pressure but show signs of marginal improvement. The net interest margin is expected to decline significantly less in 2025 due to the expiration of high-interest liabilities and a slowdown in loan pricing declines. The estimated net interest margins for state-owned and joint-stock banks are projected to be 1.34% and 1.55%, respectively, down 12 and 9 basis points from the end of 2024 [2]. - The asset quality is expected to improve while remaining stable. As of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks was recorded at 1.51%, only slightly up by 1 basis point from the end of 2024. The provision coverage ratio stands at 208%, down 3.06 percentage points, indicating ample room above the regulatory requirement of 150% [2]. Group 2: Valuation Recovery and Market Dynamics - The core logic driving the current market rally is the valuation recovery fueled by the funding environment. This trend is expected to continue, supported by low interest rates and an asset shortage, which highlight the advantages of high dividends and quasi-fixed income characteristics of bank stocks. As of July 11, the banking sector's dividend yield was 4.87%, significantly enhancing its investment appeal due to stable dividends and sound operations [3]. - Continuous inflow of incremental capital is driving a noticeable recovery in bank stock valuations. Policies such as the introduction of mid- to long-term capital into the market and new regulations for public funds have significantly increased the demand for bank stock allocations. As of July 11, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.75, indicating substantial room for recovery towards a PB of 1 [3].

Core Viewpoint - A-share listed banks are experiencing a peak in dividend distribution for the 2024 fiscal year, with over thirty banks having completed their annual dividends and several others announcing dividend implementation plans [1][3][4]. Group 1: 2024 Annual Dividends - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) leads with a total cash dividend of approximately 109.77 billion yuan for the previous year [3][4]. - The six major state-owned banks have collectively distributed over 420 billion yuan in dividends for 2024, with ICBC, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China being the top contributors [4][6]. - Other banks such as China CITIC Bank and Beijing Bank have also announced significant cash dividends, with CITIC Bank distributing around 19.46 billion yuan [4][5]. Group 2: 2025 Mid-Year Dividend Plans - Several banks, including China Merchants Bank and Hangzhou Bank, have initiated plans for mid-year dividends in 2025, aiming to enhance investor returns [1][8][10]. - The focus on mid-year dividends is seen as a strategy to improve liquidity and provide more consistent cash flow to investors, which may support long-term stock price appreciation [10]. - Banks like Su Nong Bank and Changsha Bank have expressed intentions to implement mid-year dividend plans based on their financial performance and regulatory requirements [8][9]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Market Trends - The banking sector has shown strong performance in the A-share market, with several banks achieving significant stock price increases in the first half of the year [12][13]. - The overall dividend yield of the banking sector remains attractive, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, making it appealing for long-term investors [10][13]. - Some banks have faced challenges in executing share buyback plans due to stock price fluctuations, indicating a cautious approach to capital management [11][14].

21世纪经济报道记者 吴霜 实习生王彦颖 上海报道 当前，村镇银行改革化险的"接力赛"呈现出多点开花、全面提速之势。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，近期，贵州、新疆、四川、江苏四地几乎在同一时间段密集落地吸收合并 案例。 具体来看，7月10日，贵州银行发布公告称，该行吸收合并铜仁丰源村镇银行获国家金融监督管理总局 贵州监管局核准。公告显示，吸收合并后，原铜仁丰源村镇银行将注销法人资格，不再以铜仁丰源村镇 银行的名义对外营业及吸收公众存款。 7月9日，新疆银行发布公告，将于7月24日召开临时股东大会，审议有关该行吸收合并、增资扩股、变 更注册资本等一系列议案。据了解，此次吸收合并的对象为新疆汇和银行，此前，新疆银行还就吸收整 合汇和银行科技系统承接及配改测试服务项目进行供应商招标。 7月6日，成都农商行发布公告，称拟以改建分支机构的方式，吸收合并四川省内6家村镇银行。次日， 四川金融监管局便发布批复文件，同意成都农商行吸收合并这6家村镇银行，并承接全部债权、债务。 7月1日，常熟银行也公告了其吸收合并3家村镇银行并设立相应支行的进展。此前，常熟银行吸收合并 了江苏江宁上银村镇银行、宿迁宿城兴福村镇银行、江苏宝应锦 ...

从上证基本面300指数持仓样本的行业来看，工业占比26.97%、原材料占比14.39%、金融占比10.86%、 信息技术占比8.52%、医药卫生占比8.34%、可选消费占比8.33%、主要消费占比5.08%、能源占比 5.03%、通信服务占比4.55%、房地产占比4.05%、公用事业占比3.88%。 资料显示，指数样本每年调整一次，样本调整实施时间为每年6月的第二个星期五的下一交易日。权重 因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期调整日前，权 重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样 本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 从指数持仓来看，上证基本面300指数十大权重分别为：中芯国际（1.04%）、东吴证券（1.02%）、常 熟银行（0.98%）、亨通光电（0.86%）、赛轮轮胎（0.84%）、明阳智能（0.84%）、财通证券 （0.73%）、郑煤机（0.73%）、明泰铝业（0.71%）、三安光电（0.68%）。 从上证基本面300指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 金融界 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-share listed banks are actively distributing dividends, reflecting strong operational performance and compliance with regulatory requirements for cash dividends [1][2] Group 1: Dividend Distribution - As of July 13, 35 out of 42 A-share listed banks have completed their 2024 annual dividend distributions, including major state-owned banks and several joint-stock and city commercial banks [1] - The trend of high dividend payouts is driven by the implementation of new policies aimed at enhancing cash dividends and improving predictability in dividend distributions [1][2] Group 2: Dividend Yield - Approximately half of the A-share listed banks have a dividend yield exceeding 4%, with six banks, including China Merchants Bank and Postal Savings Bank, surpassing 7% [2] - The high dividend yield is attributed to the banks' stable long-term operations and a lower risk appetite among investors who prioritize steady returns [2] Group 3: Market Performance - The banking sector has seen a cumulative increase of 19.34% year-to-date, driven by the appeal of high dividend yields and increased cash dividend distributions [2] - Several banks are planning mid-term dividend proposals for 2025, further enhancing their investment attractiveness [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The current market environment is expected to support a steady upward trend in bank stocks, bolstered by strong operational performance and high dividend levels [3] - The defensive nature of bank stocks, combined with favorable macroeconomic policies, suggests continued investment value despite external challenges [3]