Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 212.7 billion with a year-on-year growth of 0.2% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 77.5 billion, reflecting a growth of 0.3% year-on-year [4] - The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) for the year was 9.15%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Revenue growth has accelerated, with net interest income and non-interest income showing year-on-year growth rates of 0.4% and -0.2%, respectively, indicating an improvement in performance compared to previous quarters [5] - The company has effectively controlled risk costs, with credit impairment losses as a percentage of revenue and cost-to-income ratio decreasing to 27.1% and 29.3%, respectively [5] - The bank's asset and loan growth rates were 6.2% and 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a steady expansion in its balance sheet [6] - The bank's loan structure has been optimized, with corporate loans acting as a stabilizing force while retail loans faced challenges due to insufficient demand [7] - The bank's deposit growth remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% in interest-bearing liabilities and 7.2% in deposits [8] - The narrowing of interest margin decline and effective cost control have shown positive results, with the interest margin at 1.71% [9] - The bank's non-interest income was 64 billion, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.2%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to previous quarters [11] - The non-performing loan ratio remained low at 1.08%, indicating strong risk compensation capabilities [12] - The capital adequacy ratios are robust, with the core tier one capital ratio at 9.7% [13] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 0.2% for 2025, 1.5% for 2026, and 1.3% for 2027, with net profit growth rates of 0.3%, 2.9%, and 2.1% respectively [14] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are projected at 3.77, 3.84, and 3.89 respectively [14] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are estimated at 5.01, 4.91, and 4.85, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratios are projected at 0.45, 0.43, and 0.40 [14]

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月27日 兴业银行（601166.SH）2025 年报点评 中性 营收增速由负转正，分红率延续小幅提升 净利润增速平稳，现金分红率持续小幅提升。公司此前已经披露 2025 年业 绩快报，2025 年全年实现营收 2127 亿元，同比增长 0.24%；实现归母净利 润 775 亿元，同比增长 0.34%。其中，第四季度营收和归母净利润同比分别 增长 7.3%和 1.3%。2023-2025 年公司现金分红率分别是 29.64%、30.73%、 31.02%，延续小幅提升态势。 净息差边际企稳，营收增速由负转正。2025 年公司净利息收入同比增长 0.44%，较三季度增速提升了 1.0 个百分点；非息收入同比下降 0.2%，降幅 较前三季度收窄 4.3 个百分点。 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所预测 注：摊薄每股收益按最新总股本计算 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 2025 年公司净息差 1.71%，同比收窄 11bps，较前三季度收窄 1bp，降幅延 续收窄态势，核心来自于存款成本大幅下降。资产端，2025 年生息资产收益 率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 18.88 CNY and a reasonable value of 23.30 CNY [4] Core Insights - The company has achieved positive growth in both revenue and profit, with year-on-year growth rates for revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.3% respectively, showing an improvement compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [8][24] - The company has significantly reduced its funding costs, with a net interest margin of 1.71%, only slightly down by 1 basis point from the previous quarters, primarily due to a notable decrease in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities [8][24] - The company has seen a 7.4% year-on-year growth in non-interest income, benefiting from a recovery in the capital market and the synergy of its investment banking, asset management, and wealth management divisions [8][24] - The company has continued to increase its dividend payout ratio, which rose by 0.29 percentage points to 31.02% [8][24] Financial Performance Summary - The company's total revenue growth rate for 2025 was 0.2%, with a significant improvement from a negative growth in previous quarters [11][16] - The net interest income growth rate for 2025 was 1.3%, indicating a recovery in interest income [11][16] - The company maintained a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.08% and a provision coverage ratio of 228.41%, reflecting a solid asset quality [11][24] - The forecasted net profit growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are 2.51% and 4.23% respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 3.53 CNY and 3.69 CNY [8][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue performance has improved, with a total operating income of 212.14 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.15% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 77.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.34% [6]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% as of the end of 2025 [6]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased to 31.02%, with total cash dividends of 22.56 billion yuan distributed [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the bank achieved a net interest income of 148.75 billion yuan, up 0.44% year-on-year, primarily due to stable interest margins [6]. - The net fee income was 25.89 billion yuan, showing a growth of 7.45% year-on-year [6]. - The bank's total loans amounted to 5.95 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.70% [6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio was stable at 1.08%, with corporate loans at 1.01% and retail loans at 1.38% [6]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 228.41% as of the end of 2025 [6]. Future Projections - The report projects the bank's net profit to reach 78.43 billion yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 1.20% [4][7]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is expected to be 5.09 in 2026, while the price-to-book ratio (P/B) is projected at 0.46 [4][7]. Market Position - The bank's market capitalization is approximately 399.55 billion yuan, with a share price of 18.88 yuan [4]. - The bank's total deposits reached 5.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.18% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown a slight revenue growth of 0.2% year-on-year for 2025, with a net profit increase of 0.3% [6] - The report highlights a recovery in performance, indicating a "smile curve" trajectory for earnings as risk costs decline and dividend rates increase [8] - The company is focusing on specialized operations in areas such as green finance, wealth management, and investment banking, while also enhancing its technology finance capabilities [8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 was reported at 212.7 billion, with projections for 2026 at 218.8 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 2.83% [7] - The net profit for 2025 was 77.5 billion, with expected growth rates of 2.3%, 4.2%, and 4.4% for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [7][8] - The company’s non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.08%, with a provision coverage ratio of 228% [6][8] Revenue Drivers - The report identifies three main drivers for revenue recovery: stable volume growth, stable pricing, and increased non-interest income [8] - Net interest income grew by 0.4% in 2025, contributing positively to revenue growth [8] - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 7.4% year-on-year, with a notable 22.3% growth in the fourth quarter [8] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The company has effectively managed asset quality, with a reduction in new non-performing loans in key sectors such as real estate and credit cards [8] - The report indicates a proactive approach to risk management, with a focus on reducing exposure in high-risk areas [8] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio increased to 31% in 2025, reflecting the management's commitment to shareholder returns [8] - The estimated dividend yield is approximately 5.7%, enhancing the company's attractiveness to investors [8] Market Position and Valuation - The current market price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.46 for 2026, indicating potential for valuation recovery [8] - The company is positioned as a stable investment option within the sector, with a focus on fundamental improvements and risk mitigation strategies [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 24.84 [7][5]. Core Insights - The company has returned to positive revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase in net profit and operating income of +0.3% and +0.2% respectively for 2025, showing an improvement in growth rates compared to the first nine months of the year [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its strategic areas, including technology finance, green finance, wealth banking, and investment banking, which are expected to enhance its operational characteristics [1]. - The company’s total assets have surpassed RMB 11 trillion, with steady growth in loans and deposits, although retail loan demand remains weak [2]. - Non-interest income has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year decrease of only -0.2% for 2025, and a significant increase in intermediary business income [3]. - The overall quality of loans remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.08% and a provision coverage ratio of 228% as of the end of 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a year-on-year increase in net interest income of +0.4% for 2025, indicating a positive turnaround in growth [2]. - The forecast for net profit for 2026 is RMB 796.74 billion, with a projected growth rate of 2.9% [5]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remained stable at 1.08%, with a slight increase in the proportion of loans under special attention [4]. - The company has a robust capital adequacy ratio of 13.56% and a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 9.70% as of the end of 2025 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.60 for 2026, reflecting a premium valuation compared to peers [5]. - The company’s estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2026 is projected at RMB 41.40, with a corresponding PB ratio of 0.43 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance, moving out of a "smile curve" phase, driven by improved revenue and risk management [8] - The company reported a revenue of 212.7 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 77.5 billion yuan, up 0.3% year-on-year [6][8] - The report highlights a focus on enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividends, with a dividend payout ratio rising to 31% in 2025 [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: - Total revenue (million yuan): 212,741 in 2025, projected to grow to 218,754 in 2026, 226,515 in 2027, and 235,034 in 2028 [7] - Net profit (million yuan): 77,469 in 2025, expected to increase to 79,277 in 2026, 82,601 in 2027, and 86,202 in 2028 [7] - Earnings per share (yuan/share): 3.44 in 2025, projected to rise to 3.54 in 2026, 3.70 in 2027, and 3.87 in 2028 [7] - The report indicates a stable non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.08% and a provision coverage ratio of 228% as of the end of 2025 [6][8] Revenue Drivers - The recovery in revenue is attributed to three main drivers: 1. Stable growth in volume and price, with net interest income increasing by 0.4% year-on-year [8] 2. Growth in non-interest income, which rose by 7.4% year-on-year [8] 3. A reduction in the decline of other non-interest income, which fell by 4.8% year-on-year [8] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The company has maintained a stable asset quality, with a non-performing loan rate of 1.08% and a proactive approach to risk management in key sectors such as real estate and credit cards [8] - The report notes a decrease in new non-performing loans in the real estate, platform, and credit card sectors, indicating improved asset quality [8] Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its strategic focus towards specialized operations, emphasizing technology, green finance, wealth management, and investment banking as key areas for growth [8] - The report highlights significant growth in the company's client base, with corporate clients increasing by nearly 80% over the past five years [8]

Group 1 - The Bank ETF Fuquo (159887) opened down 0.39% at 1.288 yuan on March 27 [1][2] - Major holdings in the Bank ETF Fuquo include: - China Merchants Bank down 0.15% - Industrial Bank down 0.42% - Industrial and Commercial Bank down 0.13% - Agricultural Bank down 0.31% - Bank of Communications down 0.15% - Pudong Development Bank down 0.50% - Jiangsu Bank down 0.09% - Ping An Bank down 0.27% - Shanghai Bank unchanged - Minsheng Bank down 0.26% [1][2] - The performance benchmark for the Bank ETF Fuquo is the CSI 800 Bank Index return, managed by Fuquo Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1][2] - Since its establishment on May 12, 2021, the Bank ETF Fuquo has returned 29.40%, with a return of 3.16% over the past month [1][2]

Group 1 - The Bank ETF Hu'an (516210) opened with a gain of 2.88%, priced at 1.393 yuan [1][2] - Major holdings in the Bank ETF Hu'an include several banks, with the following opening performances: China Merchants Bank down 0.15%, Industrial Bank down 0.42%, Industrial and Commercial Bank down 0.13%, Agricultural Bank down 0.31%, Bank of Communications down 0.15%, Pudong Development Bank down 0.50%, Jiangsu Bank down 0.09%, Ping An Bank down 0.27%, Shanghai Bank unchanged, and Minsheng Bank down 0.26% [1][2] - The performance benchmark for the Bank ETF Hu'an is the CSI Bank Index return, managed by Hu'an Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a fund manager named Su Qingyun [1][2] - Since its establishment on September 3, 2021, the Bank ETF Hu'an has achieved a return of 35.46%, with a return of 3.04% over the past month [1][2]

Group 1 - The Bank ETF E Fund (516310) opened at 1.312 yuan, experiencing a decline of 0.15% on March 27 [1] - Major holdings in the Bank ETF include China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Ping An Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Minsheng Bank, with most showing declines [1] - The performance benchmark for the Bank ETF is the CSI Bank Index return, managed by E Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 31.33% since its inception on May 20, 2021, and a return of 3.05% over the past month [2] Group 2 - A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating potential upward momentum for certain stocks [3]