证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 兴业银行（601166.SH）2025 年三季报点评 中性 业绩保持正增长，资产质量稳健 净利润保持正增长。2025 年前三季度实现营收 1612 亿元，同比下降 1.82%， 较半年度收窄 0.47 个百分点，第三季度同比下降 0.78%；实现归母净利润 631 亿元，同比增长 0.12%。 净利息收入同比降幅收窄，其他非息降幅处在同业较好水平。前三季度净利 息收入同比下降 0.56%，较上半年收窄约 0.96 个百分点，主要是资产规模同 比增速略有提升。手续费及佣金净收入同比增长 3.79%， 较上半年扩大 1.2 个百分点；其他非息净收入同比下降 9.28%，降幅处于同业较好水平。 规模小幅扩张，客户质量稳步提升。期末资产总额 10.67 万亿元，贷款总额 5.99 万亿元，存款总额 5.83，较年初分别增长 1.57%、4.42%、和 5.47%； 其中，绿色贷款、科技贷款、制造业中长期贷款较年初分别增长 18.64%、 17.70%和 13.82%，三张名片保持特色。期末零售客户 1.14 亿户，较年初增 长 3.4%，双金客户和私行客户交年初分了增长 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest holdings of the "national team" in A-share listed companies have been revealed, with significant investments in major financial institutions and other sectors, indicating a strategic focus on stability and growth in the market [1][2]. Group 1: National Team Holdings - A total of 233 A-share listed companies have the "national team" (China Securities Finance Corporation and Central Huijin) among their top ten shareholders [1]. - There are 30 stocks with a holding value exceeding 10 billion yuan, including major banks like China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China, with holdings valued at 1.3288 trillion yuan, 1.1429 trillion yuan, and 1.1138 trillion yuan respectively [1][2]. - The top holdings also include companies from various sectors such as insurance, food and beverage, and energy, showcasing a diversified investment strategy [1][2]. Group 2: New Additions and Performance - Farah Electronics has been newly added to the "national team" holdings, with a market value of 158 million yuan [3]. - For the third quarter, Farah Electronics reported a revenue of 3.944 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.69%, and a net profit of 888 million yuan, also up by 14.58% [3]. - The company’s capacitor products are utilized in ultra-high voltage transmission applications, indicating a focus on high-demand technology sectors [3].

智通财经11月2日讯（编辑 笠晨）随着A股上市公司三季报披露完毕，"国家队"最新持仓动向曝光。Choice数据显示，共有233家A股上市 公司的前十大股东中出现"国家队"（仅统计中国证金和中央汇金）身影。 从持仓市值来看，三季度"国家队"最新持仓市值超过100亿元的个股共有30只，分别为建设银行、农业银行、中国银行、工商银行、新华 保险、中国平安、中金公司、中信建投、中国人寿、申万宏源、中国神华、贵州茅台、中国中车、美的集团、招商银行、紫金矿业、长 江电力、五粮液、中国石化、立讯精密、交通银行、浦发银行、国电电力、特变电工、兴业银行、中国中铁、中信证券、中国石油、中 国铁建和中国建筑。 具体来看，对建设银行、农业银行和中国银行的持仓市值超万亿元，分别为13288.15亿元、11429.52亿元、11138.27亿元。具体详见下 图： | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 最新持仓市值(亿元) | 本期(亿股) | 东财行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601939. SH | 建设银行 | 13288. 15 | 1455. 44 | 美脚 | | 601288. SH ...

光大银行逆势走低 与同业相比，光大银行的业绩疲态尽显。从营收端看，光大银行-7.94%的降幅远高于招商银行（-0.51%），也显著低于浦发银行（+1.88%）和民生银行 （600016.SH，+6.74%）的正增长。其降幅虽与平安银行（000001.SZ，-9.80%）、华夏银行（600015.SH，-8.79%）同处低位，但后两者在净利润端的降 幅均略优于光大银行。 净利润的对比更为直接。在已披露数据的股份行中，浦发银行以10.21%的增幅领跑，中信银行（601998.SH，+3.02%）、兴业银行（601166.SH， +0.12%）和招商银行（+0.52%）均维持了正增长。反观光大银行，其-3.63%的净利润降幅，在八家银行中排名靠后。尤其值得注意的是，民生银行虽净 利润下降6.38%，但其营收实现了6.74%的较高增长；而光大银行营收与净利润双降，意味着其盈利的收缩更多来自于主营业务的下滑。 对于包括光大银行在内的众多商业银行而言，关键问题是如何转得更快、更有效。在支持实体经济的同时，银行必须找到商业可持续的模式。这场转型既 考验战略定力，更需要找到精准的突破口，是在财富管理领域建立优势，还是在数字化 ...

（文章来源：中国经营报） 具体来看，前三季度，对公房地产业务新发生不良较上年同期减少53%，信用卡领域新发生不良同比下 降10.58%，地方政府融资平台领域无新发生不良。同时，零贷受国内外宏观经济环境以及部分客户收 入下降影响，资产质量依然承压，但整体资产质量仍保持在同业较优水平。 为更好地适应外部经营新环境、新形势，今年7月，兴业银行正式启动风险管理体制机制改革，优化完 善风险管理架构，整合设置专业化管理部门，由风险内嵌机制转变为风险派驻机制，系统梳理了各类别 风险管理边界及投融资作业流程，有效提升风险管理独立性、全面性和专业性。同时，构建与集团风险 偏好适配的管控体系，深入推动风险与业务的融合，落实落细"区域+行业"策略，风险赋能进一步增 强。 兴业银行近日发布2025年三季度业绩报告显示，兴业银行新发生不良资产规模及不良生成率实现"双 降"，房地产、地方政府融资平台、信用卡三大领域从风险高发转向收敛，风险集中暴露高峰期已经过 去。 截至三季度末，该行不良贷款率1.08%，与6月末持平；关注类贷款率1.67%，较上年末下降0.04个百分 点；计提资产减值损失423.13亿元，同比下降11.30%；拨备覆盖 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company continues to show a positive operational trend with a narrowing revenue decline and stable profit growth, supported by a recovery in interest margins and improved generation [1][2] - The company reported a year-on-year revenue decline of 1.8% and a slight increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.1% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating performance in line with expectations [1][5] - The company has announced its first interim dividend of 30.02%, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its value characteristics [3] Revenue and Profit Overview - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders showed a year-on-year decline of 1.8% and an increase of 0.1%, respectively, with the revenue decline narrowing compared to the first half of 2025 [1][12] - The interest margin for Q3 2025 increased by 4 basis points to 1.55%, primarily due to a significant improvement in funding costs [2] - Non-interest income grew by 3.8% year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in capital markets and a solid customer base [1] Asset Quality and Risk Indicators - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.08% as of the end of Q3 2025, with a slight increase in the attention loan ratio to 1.67% [4] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 228%, indicating a stable asset quality [4] - The company reported a significant improvement in the generation of non-performing loans, with a year-on-year decline in new non-performing loans in corporate real estate and credit cards [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit growth rates for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 0.22%, 5.05%, and 5.39%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 38.92, 41.49, and 44.21 yuan [5][12] - The target price is set at 25.82 yuan per share, implying a potential upside of 28% based on the current price [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Industrial Bank has achieved stable operational performance in the first three quarters of 2025, focusing on value banking construction and enhancing five key capabilities: strategic execution, customer service, investment trading, comprehensive risk control, and management promotion [1] Financial Performance - As of the end of September, Industrial Bank's total assets reached 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.57% from the end of the previous year [1] - The bank reported operating income of 161.23 billion yuan, with a decline rate narrowing by 0.47 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - Net profit for the period was 63.08 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.12% [1] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.08%, unchanged from the end of June, while the attention loan ratio decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 1.67% [1][4] Asset and Liability Structure - The bank has optimized its asset and liability structure, with loans and deposits increasing their proportion in total liabilities and assets by 2.17 percentage points and 1.53 percentage points, respectively, compared to the beginning of the year [2] - Loan balance reached 5.99 trillion yuan, up 4.42% year-on-year, with significant growth in green loans (18.64%), technology loans (17.70%), and medium to long-term loans in manufacturing (13.82%) [2] - Deposit balance was 5.83 trillion yuan, a 5.47% increase from the previous year, with retail deposits reaching 1.76 trillion yuan [2] Customer Service and Risk Management - The number of corporate clients increased by 6.53% to 1.6358 million, while retail clients grew by 3.40% to 114 million [3] - The bank's interest income was 110.96 billion yuan, a decline of 0.56%, but the decrease was less than in the first half of the year [3] - New non-performing assets and the non-performing asset generation rate both decreased, indicating a reduction in risk concentration in high-risk areas such as real estate and local government financing platforms [3][4] Digital Transformation and Innovation - Industrial Bank is advancing its digital transformation by focusing on intelligent transformation, with mobile banking active users reaching 24.73 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.41% [5] - The bank aims to enhance its AI capabilities and has established a "6+X" AI capability system [5] Strategic Development - The bank continues to strengthen its three key areas: green banking, wealth management, and investment banking, with green loan balances exceeding 1.1 trillion yuan [6] - The bank is also preparing to establish a financial asset investment company to enhance its "commercial bank + investment bank" advantage [7] Dividend Policy and Market Position - Industrial Bank announced its first mid-term dividend plan, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [8] - The bank has maintained a high dividend rate, with a static dividend yield of 5.29%, indicating strong investment value [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved an operating income of 161.2 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 63.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.8% and 0.1% respectively [4][5]. - The report highlights a narrowing decline in revenue and a slight positive growth in profit, with net interest income and non-interest income showing year-on-year growth rates of -0.6% and -4.5% respectively [5][8]. - The bank's asset expansion is steady, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.7% in interest-earning assets and 4.3% in loans as of the end of Q3 2025 [6][10]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low at 1.08%, indicating strong risk compensation capabilities [10][30]. - The report emphasizes the bank's strategic focus on digital transformation and the development of five new business tracks, aiming for a more efficient and sustainable growth model [12][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 161.2 billion, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 63.1 billion, an increase of 0.1% year-on-year [4][5]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10.07%, down 0.85 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. Asset and Liability Management - As of Q3 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 4.7% and 4.3% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a slight acceleration in asset expansion [6][10]. - The bank's deposits increased steadily, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.6% in deposits as of Q3 2025 [7][10]. Profitability and Efficiency - The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.72%, with a narrowing decline compared to previous periods [8][12]. - Non-interest income decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, contributing to a decline in its proportion of total revenue [9][12]. Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio was reported at 1.08%, with a stable asset quality performance [10][30]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 227.8%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [10][30]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q3 2025, the bank's core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.66%, reflecting a solid capital position [11][30]. - The report notes that the bank has a significant amount of convertible bonds that have not yet been converted, suggesting potential for future capital enhancement [11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 161.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.12% year-on-year [5] - The asset structure continues to optimize, with strong performance in corporate loans, and the net interest margin decline has narrowed, indicating stable asset quality and robust risk control capabilities [5] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 210.8 billion yuan, 215.4 billion yuan, and 222.8 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit predictions of 77.5 billion yuan, 79.0 billion yuan, and 81.5 billion yuan [5][7] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 161.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.82% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing compared to the first half of 2025 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.12% [5] Asset Structure - As of the end of Q3 2025, total assets reached 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.57% from the end of 2024, with total loans amounting to 5.99 trillion yuan, up 4.42% [5] - Corporate loans accounted for 3.70 trillion yuan, growing by 7.54% [5] Profitability Metrics - The net interest margin stood at 1.72%, with a slight decline of 3 basis points from the end of the first half of 2025, but the rate of decline has slowed [5] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.08%, and the provision coverage ratio was 227.81% [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 210.8 billion yuan, 215.4 billion yuan, and 222.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 77.5 billion yuan, 79.0 billion yuan, and 81.5 billion yuan [5][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 3.53 yuan, 3.60 yuan, and 3.72 yuan for the same years [7]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and strategic adjustments of Industrial Bank in the third quarter of 2025, highlighting revenue, profit, asset quality, and loan dynamics. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Industrial Bank achieved revenue of 161.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%, with the decline narrowing by 0.47 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.08 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.12% year-on-year [1] - The net interest margin stood at 1.72%, down 10 basis points from 2024, aligning with initial expectations [1] Loan Dynamics - As of the end of September, total loans increased by 253.3 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, with corporate loans rising by 259.4 billion yuan, achieving 87% of the annual target [2] - Personal loans decreased by 49.6 billion yuan, primarily due to changes in economic conditions and market demand, leading to a strategic shift to prioritize quality over growth [2] - The introduction of a personal consumption loan subsidy policy on September 1 positively impacted individual loan issuance, with a 5.07% month-on-month increase in September [2] Asset Quality - As of September 30, the non-performing loan balance was 64.56 billion yuan, an increase of 3.08 billion yuan from the end of the previous year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% [3] - The bank's chief risk officer indicated a significant decrease in newly generated non-performing assets compared to the same period last year, with a lower non-performing asset generation rate [3] - The bank expects a decrease in new non-performing loans for the year compared to the previous year, maintaining stable asset quality [3] Non-Interest Income - The bank's net fee and commission income grew by 3.79% year-on-year to 20.08 billion yuan, with an acceleration in wealth management service income [4] - Credit card income showed a reduced decline compared to the first half of the year, indicating improved performance in this segment [4] - Other non-interest income decreased by 9.28% year-on-year to 30.19 billion yuan, influenced by fluctuations in bond rates, but remained competitive within the industry [5] Market Trends - There has been an increase in customer allocation towards equity products, with a notable rise in the penetration of equity-linked products among high-net-worth clients [5] - The bank observed a significant increase in the activity of third-party custody clients, with monthly average sign-ups doubling compared to the first half of the year [5] - The overall market conditions remain favorable for the bond market, although there are concerns about the impact of a strong stock market on bond valuations [5]